Friday, November 16, 2018

Time To Sign Off For The Night -- Going Biking -- Headed Home -- Good Luck To All -- November 16, 2018

Flashback: from the blog, June 26, 2011 --  Wall Street Journal -- $4.00 gasoline ends the fantasy

Fast forward: gasoline is now below $2.00/gallon in some places. 

The incredible Bakken: Think about this:
  • 60 rigs -- that's all: 60 rigs
  • two counties, maybe three -- but that's about it
  • shortage of roughnecks
  • limited number of frack spreads
  • takeaway issues
  • the winters
  • courts being asked to shut down pipelines; in many cases, they do
  • price volatility
  • 2,000+ wells drilled to depth and not producing for operational reasons; that's more wells than will be drilled this year in North Dakota
  • 6,000+ wells that need to be re-fracked
And there it is, another production record. Lynn Helms says almost every record was broken in September, 2018.

1.3 million bopd. 

Remember when there were 200+ rigs in the Bakken and less than 400,000 bopd. 

x $50 = $65 million / day coming out of two counties, maybe three.

And the Permian? So much bigger.

You never can tell (if you're trying to remember where you might have heard this song: Pulp Fiction).

{C'est La Vie) You Never Can Tell, Emmylou Harris

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 5, T+10 -- November 16, 2018

Best comment I've seen on this story: Shortest game of Clue right here. The Saudi Prince in the Embassy with the Bonesaw.

So many story lines.

Prior to this Washington Post / CIA story, President Trump had "unlimited" leverage over the Prince.

With the release of the story, the president no longer has "unlimited" leverage over the Prince. In fact, the president may now have more challenges; certainly, Saudi Arabia has a lot with which to deal. It's hard for me to believe that any responsible business man in the United States would want to be seen with the man pictured above. 

One wonders why the US, Britain, and the EU are not talking sanctions on Saudi Arabia. Ah, yes, realpolitik. 

I haven't read the Washington Post story; the real story is at what level in the administration was this story released to the Washington Post. Of course, the sources will remain anonymous, but it's hard for me to believe that the president did not give approval. Could be wrong. It will be interesting to see how Scott Adams addresses this. The story was just released; it's late in the evening, so it may be awhile before Scott Adams' next podcast.

Okay, now I've read the story. Nothing new there except that we now know about a phone call between the Saudi ambassador to the United States (who just happens to be a brother of the prince).

Also, very, very noteworthy: this whole story really doesn't say much that we didn't already know or suspect, but look at the number of reporters it took to write this really quite simple story: three. 

It shouldn't take three reporters to write such a non-story -- except that it gives the story gravitas, credibility. With this number of reporters, it tells me they have at least two, perhaps three sources, that corroborate the CIA angle. In addition, like Woodward and Bernstein there were multiple reporters connecting dots that one reporter might not have been able to do by herself.

But I suppose at the end of the day, if the US, Britain, France, Germany do not hold the Prince accountable, it will speak volumes about their leaders' sense of morality. Let's see which leader speaks out on this first.

Speaking of Journalists

I continue to read the excerpts in Tom Wolfe's The New Journalism. Most recently I read the excerpt from HST's Hell's Angels. I had forgotten how really good Hunter's writing is/was.

And speaking of Hell's Angels, I happened to catch one of the "Billy Jack" movies the other night on TCM. An incredibly awful movie but a huge cult following.

One thing leads to another.

Wow, Some Music Is Needed -- The Carnival Is Over

The Carnival Is Over, The Seekers

Apparently Two Of The Contests Are Finally Over

It's my understanding that the US Senate is still 53 - 47. Don't know if that will change.

Bakken Operators Showing An Interest In Three-Mile-Long Laterals? -- November 16, 2018


November 16, 2018: in the original post I mentioned super long laterals / extended long laterals / three-section laterals / three-mile laterals / triple-section laterals.

A reader suggests that we should watch Liberty Resources for these triple-section laterals.

At this post, I have posted the Liberty Resources permits/file numbers in descending permit order -- most recent permits at the top and then descending down to the older permits. The fourth column is the drilled depth. That column is blank until you get to permit #33712 because the wells have either not been drilled yet or they are not yet off the confidential list.

I could be wrong, but generally speaking, any well that has a reported depth of ~21,000 feet is a two-section lateral. A well with a reported depth of ~15,000 feet is a one-section lateral. To be a three-section lateral, I would expect a drilled depth of ~ 24,000.

As Lynn Helms noted, the Liberty Resources wells are not in the core Bakken but are located northeast of Williston, north of Tioga and White Earth, in the Powers Lake area.

Most of the other triple-section laterals of which I am aware go under the river, drilled by other operators.
  • 33473, 568, Liberty Resources, Jensen W 159-93-21-9-1MBHX, Gros Ventre, t7/17; cum 141K 9/18; a triple-section well: TD= 24,308
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post 

Reported earlier but worth reporting again.

From twitter:

Link here. Data points:
  • North Dakota oil production averaged nearly 1.36 million b/d in September
  • production was up about 66,800 b/d from August and a new record for monthly output
  • September marked the fourth straight month for record-breaking oil output in North Dakota
  • there is currently 1.37 million b/d of pipeline capacity out of the Bakken, with another 250,000-275,000 b/d of crude-by-rail capacity
  • some lines are idled or operating below capacity, he said last week
  • and then this:
Helms said that September marked the first time in at least three years that oil increased more rapidly than gas as operators shifted out of core drilling areas in the state where the gas to oil ratios are relatively high, to new wells in Divide, Mountrail and Burke counties in northwest North Dakota. "Those areas had gone for several years without any drilling activity and now with the advent of the three-mile-long laterals and new completion techniques they're much, much more economic," Helms said. "We're starting to see a little moderation in terms of gas-oil ratios. We're seeing oil and gas synchronize a bit more."
I was unaware of the current interest in three-mile-long laterals. I've reported on a few in the past but haven't reported on any new ones. My hunch is that most of them are still conf or SI/NC.

See these tags below for three-mile laterals: "extended long laterals" and "super long laterals."

Eight New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 16, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs63553863186

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6); Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Alkali Creek (Williams), Elk (McKenzie)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Tom State pad in 1-154-95; Whiting has permits for a two-well Nelsen pad in lot 4, section 2-151-102;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32022, 1,449, Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-4, Capa, t10/18; cum --
  • 33533, 2,444, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-8, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum --
  • 33532, 1,407, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-9, Elm Tree, t10/18; cum --
  • 34278, 1,643, Thomas 13-3-2TFH, Truax, t10/18; cum --
  • 34446, 2,284, Rennerfeldt 41-3-6TFHU, Stockyard Creek, t9/18; cum 37K after 27 days;
  • 34444, 2,207,  Rennerfeldt 41-3-1HU, Stockyard Creek, 4 sections, t9/18; cum 24K after 25 days;

#34444 / #34446:
  • neighboring wells of interest:
  • #26030: jump in production from 1,800 bbls/month to 6,645 bbls/month
  • #26032: no jump in production see first month well was brought back on line
  • #24124: jump in production from 3,000 bbls/month to 6,000 bbls/month

North Dakota Medical Marijuana Registrations Move Forward -- To Include The Bakken -- November 16, 2018

From twitter:

 From the press release:
In addition to the recent selections in the Grand Forks and Williston dispensary regions, two entities were selected near the end of September for the Bismarck/Mandan and Fargo regions.
According to state law, all entities selected to move forward must meet additional requirements before being issued a registration certificate from the NDDoH. Dispensaries can purchase dried leaves or flowers and medical marijuana products from either of the two manufacturing facilities under the Medical Marijuana Program.
So, Fargo, Bismarck/Mandan, Grand Forks, and Williston. 

Bakken Blizzard? November 16, 2018

Director's Cut Is Out -- September, 2018, Data -- North Dakota Sets New All-Time Crude Oil / Natural Gas Production Records; Operators In No Hurry To Reduce Number Of DUCs

Link here.

Crude oil production:
  • September, 2018: hits new all-time high -- 1,359,256 bopd
  • August, 2018: 1,292,505
  • delta, bbls: 66,751 bbls
  • delta, percent: a whopping increase of 5% month-over-month
Producing wells:
  • September, 2018: 15,287 -- a new all-time high
  • August, 2018: 15,124
Natural gas production:
  • September, 2018: 2,532,018 Mcf/d -- a new all-time high
  • August, 2018: 2,443,010 Mcf/d
  • delta, cubic feet: 89,008 Mcf/d
  • delta, percent: 3.6%
Off line:
  • DUCs: 928, up three from last report
  • inactive: 1,340, down 87 from last report
  • total: 2,268 (more than the total number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year)
  • statewide, captured: 2,075,451 Mcf/day -- new all-time high
  • statewide, capture: 82%
  • FBIR Bakken: 71%
  • current goal: 88%

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 4, T+10 -- November 16, 2018 -- Mexico To Ban Fracking -- That's The Least Of Their Problems

North America, far north to far south:
  • Arctic: Obama ceded the Arctic to Russia; previously reported
  • Canada: oil patch has lost patience with country's support (or better said -- lack of support) -- reported this morning over at Rigzone; also see story below -- Canada's crude oil crisis is accelerating;
  • US: EIA is probably under-reporting crude oil production; official estimates at around 11.6 million bopd; in fact, data suggests over 12 million bopd being produced -- discussed yesterday
  • Mexico: investors want clarity -- Argusmedia --
"Unconventional resources should be developed as soon as possible but it has to be backed up by certainty from the government. The current environment does not go hand in hand with certainty."
Mexican oil and natural gas production fell by almost a third during president Enrique Pena Nieto's six-year administration that ends on 31 November, as E&P spending dropped, resources matured and priorities refocused amid the historic 2014 energy reform that dismantled state-owned Pemex's monopoly.
Mexico's unconventional resources are predominantly in the Burgos Basin in northern Mexico, just south of the US Eagle Ford shale play that has revolutionized production levels in the US. Reserves are estimated at around 60bn barrels of oil equivalent, and could revert declining production levels.
But Mexico's first-ever shale tender, currently scheduled for 14 February next year, is in doubt following incoming president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's pledge that his administration would not allow hydraulic fracturing.

Pemex has fractured around 22pc of all wells developed in conventional resources but the Morena party, led by Lopez Obrador, said it will seek to ban the practice given concerns around water pollution and environmental damage
In response, the Mexican oil chamber (AMEXHI) is currently drafting a paper that seeks to explain the fracking process and environmental concerns that opponents to the practice may have.
Even if Lopez Obrador allows the shale tender to proceed, the remote areas of northern Mexico, where most unconventional resources are located, currently lack the adequate rail, road, pipeline or processing infrastructure required to develop a shale industry of any significant scale, said Victor Maldonado, member of the Coahuila energy cluster, a local energy industry association.
Insufficient and aging infrastructure is also impeding the production of conventional resources licensed under the three tender rounds administered by oil regulator CNH since 2014.
WCS Falls To Record Low


November 19, 2018: from Bloomberg --
Heavy Western Canadian Select crude fell to a record low as several oil producers shut in production and some demand the Alberta government intervene to mandate across-the-board cuts. [Years ago, refineries along the Gulf Coast shifted from light oil to heavy oil as their preferred crude oil; that was the reason for the Keystone XL -- the pipeline killed by President Obama.]
The oil-sands benchmark fell $2.29 to $13.46 a barrel Thursday, the lowest in Bloomberg data extending back to 2008. The price broke a previous record set in early 2016, when West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading under $30 a barrel amid a world-wide supply glut.
The price collapse comes as pipeline bottlenecks in Western Canada constrain exports just as WTI experienced a record losing streak amid rising U.S. stockpiles and projections for reduced demand.
Producers including Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy Inc. have responded to the price drop by curtailing what could amount to as much as 140,000 barrels a day or more, according to company statements. Some operators have gone further, asking that Alberta’s government mandate production cuts across the province.
Original Post

Canada: crude oil crisis is accelerating. Nothing new here -- well, actually there. Free market capitalists -- Canadian oil companies -- are actually asking the Canadian government to step in and mandate cuts in Canadian oil production.  Other data points:
  • storage capacity has reached its limits -- that may be the newest wrinkle -- to which some folks may not have been paying attention
  • WCS below $18/bbl; for the first time since 2016 -- previously reported
  • Iranian sanctions undermined by waivers
    • Trump waived his own sanctions
    • EU has undermined those sanctions further
    • result: unexpected glut of global oil
  • Keystone XL: construction halted this past week on judge's order
Past Her Shelf Life?

Misstep? In The WSJ, Peggy Noonan completely mis-read Melania. Ms Noonan got too far in front of her headlights.

Staggering! -- November 16, 2018 -- Bruin's Fort Berthold Wells

Absolutely staggering. I hope Art Berman and Jane Nielson are watching.

And this won't be the biggest Bakken well before it's all over. 
  • 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 292K 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Total boe, single month:
  • 67,211,000 / 6,001 = 11,200
  • bo: 95,315
  • total boe: 106,515 boe
Record IPs are tracked here.

The well:
  • total depth: 21,307 feet
  • vertical depth: 10,823 feet
  • middle Bakken: primary pay zone was 15 feet to 25 feet below the top of the middle Bakken
  • gas detection system, 1 unit = 100 ppm; C1, C2, C3, iC4, nC4, iC5, and nC5; O2 and CO2
  • gases ranged between 1,500 and 2,200 units within in the target zone in the lateral
  • the curve was landed far below the target window due to poor build rates
  • the majority of the bore was drilled within our target window with 77.6% (7,831 feet) drilled inside the target window, and 22.4% (2,266 feet) outside.

The graphic:

For newbies: all middle Bakken wells? Maybe, not sure. I will check later. But after they drill out the middle Bakken, they still have three or four benches (pay zones) in the Three Forks just below the middle Bakken.

Older wells not yet showing much jump in production.

Other wells of note in the graphic above:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 3, T+10 -- November 16, 2018

Global warming hits Boston early this "winter": From CBS Boston Local: will the snowiest decade continue? This is a great article with lots of great graphics. Pretty much kills the "global warming" story -- of course, Algore and Occasional Cortex are watching a different movie. From the linked article (and much, much more at the link - this is a must-read article):
Despite the snow blitz of 2015, many baby boomers still insist that, overall, we don’t get the harsh bitter cold and deep snowy winters like we did in the good ole days.
Weather records prove that just isn’t the case and despite the ongoing claims that snows are becoming rare and hurting winter sports, this millennium has been a blessing to snow lovers and winter sports enthusiasts.
Just as the Saffir-Simpson and Fujita Scales were devised to categorize hurricanes and tornadoes, the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) was created by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National Weather Service to rank high-impact Northeast storms. This scale has 5 categories including extreme, crippling, major, significant and notable. In addition to meteorological measurements, the index uses population information which provides an indication of a storm’s impacts on society. The NESIS scores are a function of the amount of snow, the area affected by the snowstorm and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over 10 for extreme storms.

The last decade stands out like a sore thumb! It has had 29 major impact northeast winter storms with NO previous 10-year period with more than 10 storms! In Boston, 7 out of the last 10 years have produced snowfall above the average 43.7 inches.
2008-09: 65.9″
2009-10: 35.7″
2010-11: 81.0″
2011-12: 9.3″ -- the year Boston had no winter.
2012-13: 63.4″
2013-14: 58.9″
2014-15: 110.6″ Greatest On Record Back To 1872
2015-16: 36.1″
2016-17: 47.6″
2017-18: 59.9″

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+10 -- November 16, 2018

Reality sucks:

Global warming: Algore, 1994 -- what could possible go wrong? Planning for the wrong scenario, perhaps. One wonders if the Kennedy grandchildren are allowed to watch the WeatherChannel.

Booby prize: Amazon selects NYC for HQ2; cites great public transportation. Meanwhile, here in north Texas, highways are moving freely; not a cloud in the sky; will we hit 70 degrees today? Maybe.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+10 -- November 16, 2018 -- Natural Gas Market Remains Ultra-Tight -- Oilprice

COP is marketing its UK assets after it receives unsolicited offer. Rigzone over at twitter. Maybe more later.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

ISO New England:

The Modern Art Page

May Garcia, 2018.
Papa helping Sophia learn to ride a bike. Arianna playing flute. 

Canada, Sand, Natural Gas, And All That Jazz -- November 16, 2018 -- Bruin Will Report Another Huge Well -- Staggering -- Almost 300K In Four Months

Sand: Pioneer to move to all west Texas sand in 2019. Rigzone.
Pioneer Natural Resources is closing its sand mine in Brady, Texas as the company transitions proppant supply to West Texas sand sources.
The Dallas-based E&P company plans to stop operations at the Brady facility during first quarter of 2019 and transition to 100 percent West Texas sand by May 2019.
The move will provide Pioneer an estimated $400,000 per well in sand savings. The company will also recognize a noncash after-tax charge of $350 to $400 million in fourth quarter of 2018.
Natural gas: lagging gas storage finally triggers market reaction. Rigzone Archived.

Canada: oil patch loses patience with country's lack of support. Bloomberg via Rigzone. Archived.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, November 16, 2018:
  • 34171, 242, Windridge, Kestrel State 36-25 1H, Short Creek, 19 stages, 0 lbs sand, target: Madison formation; TD = 12,283 feet; t6/18; cum 18K 9/18;
  • 33871, SI/NC, MRO, Rummel 24-35TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
  • 33224, 1,133, CLR, Kennedy 8-31H1, Dimmick Lake, 4 sections, 62 stages; 15.1 million lbs, t7/18; cum 24K 9/18;
  • 33223, 861, CLR, Miles 5-6H, Dimmick Lake, 4 sections, 16 stages; no other data , t8/18; cum 25K in 42 days;
  • 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 292K 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Active rigs:

Active Rigs62553863186

RBN Energy: South Korea becomes top Asian destination for US oil after China trade spat.
Between new sanctions on Iran and the potential for more escalation in the trade war with China, oil exports from the U.S. have been changing their flows dramatically in the past few months. China from October 2017 through July 2018 rivaled Canada as the largest buyer of U.S. crude; in June, when total U.S. exports hit a record 2.2 MMb/d, nearly one-quarter of those volumes flowed to China. But since trade tensions between the two nations intensified, not a single barrel of U.S. crude has arrived in China since July. Thankfully, the U.S. has found ways to fill the Chinese void by increasing the volumes sold to South Korea and India, two historically prominent buyers of Iranian oil. Today, we lay out the reasons why U.S. sanctions on Iran are helping the U.S. continue to sell crude to Asia, even as relations with China have chilled.