Saturday, February 8, 2025

Summer Today -- Not So Much Tomorrow -- North Texas -- February 8, 2025

Locator: 48513ARCHIVES.

North Texas. Blogging outside, watching Sophia at Jiu-Jitsu.

It's 74°F at 10:00 a.m. The high today will be 83°F but windy.

Tomorrow, the high will be 53°F.

The Overton Window

Locator: 48512JARGON.

Link here.

******************
The Eisenhower Principle

Discussed earlier. 

****************************
Sanctuary Cities, Defund The Police, Black Lives Matter

I've never been able to explain to my satisfaction the "appeal" of these "movements."

But now, while reading Harlem: The Making of a Ghetto, Gilbert Osofsky, 1963, earliest copyright, I finally understand it. I tell those who will listen that if you have a question and you can't answer, a) google it, or, b) follow the money.

In this case, googling will not be helpful. However, following the money will provide the scaffolding one needs to begin to sort this out. 

Chicago, particularly, is taking a page from a similar "movement" back in the early 1900s, specifically 1904 through 1905, and perhaps ten years before and ten years after. 

Here in Texas, Dallas runs the same risk but so far the movements have not been as successful. 

The premise is this. If there's a really, really nice place to live, and you already live there, but you can't afford to live there and want to "move up," how can you accomplish that goal?

Trump: Most Transformative President Since FDR? Project Ludicrous -- February 8, 2025

Locator: 48511LDC.

I assume folks remember Stargate. Trump-supported $500 billion initiative to build-out AI centers across the US. By the way, this is very much like Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase, Andrew Johnson's purchase of Alaska from Russia, the FDR's Manhattan Project, JFK's space program, and Reagan's StarWars -- all huge efforts to take a commanding lead over the rest of the world in a national security arena. 

Abilene, Texas, link here, this is what we know so far:

Oracle founder and CTO Larry Ellison, who was at the announcement with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, said the first Stargate data centers are under construction in Abilene, Texas, according to businessinsider.com.
"We've been working with OpenAI for a while and Masa for a while.
The data centers are actually under construction — the first of them are under construction in Texas," Ellison said at the announcement.
"Each building is a half-million sq. ft. There are 10 buildings currently being built, but that will expand to 20 and other locations beyond the Abilene location, which is our first location."
Other details about Stargate are sketchy, according to businessinsider.com, although registration forms filed with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation matching Ellison's description of Stargate offer some insight.
The development is registered as "Project Ludicrous" at an address attached to the Lancium Clean Campus, according to businessinsider.com.
That's a 1,000-acre site in Abilene owned by energy tech company Lancium. Project Ludicrous' owner is listed as Abilene DC 1 LLC, an affiliate of data center development startup Crusoe. According to Texas state comptroller's records, Oracle occupies the data center owned by Abilene DC 1 LLC at the Lancium Clean Campus in Abilene.

Was this all foreshadowed back in July, last year? Link here. Note the byline for this story, San Francisco. That's incredibly interesting. 

Lancium Clean Campus, link here.

1100 acres. How big is 1100 acres? Almost two sections, each section being 640-acres.

More:

Construction on a building, a 482,000-sq.-ft. one-story "data hall" estimated to cost $292 million, began in June 2024 and is set for May 30, 2025, completion, according to businessinsider.com.
The plans also call for a guard house, fire pump building and mechanical and electrical enclosures. A second filing from September 2024 indicates that tenant improvements costing $140 million began in December and are expected to be completed by Sept. 15, 2025.
A second building, a 484,960-sq.-ft. "1-story data center" also estimated at $292 million, began construction in September and is expected to be completed in one year, the filings said. Tenant improvements expected to be completed by Dec. 24, 2025, are estimated at $384 million, businessinsider.com reported.
Lancium originally struck a development deal with the city of Abilene in 2021 for the Lancium Clean Campus. The site was first for powering bitcoin mines with renewable energy generation, although that never happened, according to businessinsider.com.
In November, Crusoe announced a $3.4 billion data center development on the Lancium Clean Campus, according to businessinsider.com. It said it had already fully leased the space to a "Fortune 100 hyperscale tenant," with occupancy expected to begin in the first half of 2025.

Data center map, link here:

Gigawatt Data Centers -- February 8, 2025

Locator: 48510LDC.

Link here. Stargate. ChatGPT. OpenAI. Oracle. SIRTrump. 

Google: large data centers gigawatt.

Not one other country in the universe nor the EU can do this now, nor do it in the next twenty years. 

All of a sudden we've jumped from 1-gigawatt data centers to 5-gigawatt data centers. The data centers will be built in modules, over time, with multiple facilities at each campus.

Your Mission Today If You Choose To Accept It, Explore Stargate -- February 8, 2205

Locator: 48509LDC.

I assume folks remember Stargate. Trump-supported $500 billion initiative to build-out AI centers across the US. By the way, this is very much like the FDR's Manhattan Project, JFK's space program, and Reagan's StarWars -- all huge efforts to take a commanding lead over the rest of the world in a national security arena.

The Verge, link here:

A plan to build a system of data centers for artificial intelligence has been revealed in a White House press conference, with Masayoshi Son, Sam Altman, and Larry Ellison joining Donald Trump to announce The Stargate Project. Their companies, Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle (respectively), along with MGX are listed as “initial equity funders” for $500 billion in investments over the next four years, “building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.

 It's now been announced where the first center will be built. It was announced that it would be in Texas but the original announcement was no specific than that.

I guessed along I-35 north of Waco, perhaps new Round Rock, but I was wrong. 

The gold ring goes to Abilene, Texas. Link here.

OpenAI is expanding its push to construct data centers as a $500 billion “Stargate” initiative with the U.S. government takes shape.
Work in Abilene is already underway as part of its joint venture with Oracle and SoftBank, OpenAI said in a call on Thursday.
The cost and specifics of the facility were not immediately disclosed.
Meanwhile, the maker of ChatGPT technology is weighing at least 16 future locations that are expected to flourish across the country, including Arizona, California, New York, Pennsylvania and Utah.
Each campus will be able to generate at least 1 gigawatt of capacity and will be linked.
However, the Abilene site is seen as the linchpin of a massive infrastructure build-out, adding to the Dallas-Fort Worth area’s economic momentum.
The city is the immediate beneficiary of a tranche of the four-year, $500 billion master plan that’s expected to buttress the regional economy.
In ways big and small, data centers are starting to pepper the DFW landscape, with Magnum Economics estimating they generated more than $3.2 billion in state and local tax revenues last year. More projects are expected to reap an additional $3.7 billion in the near term, the firm estimates. 

That's the story, but what caught my attention: it's not just Texas, it's not just Abilene, but its DFW.  

The original story posted here. See below the fold.

But there's even more to the story, but that's enough for now. By the way, can anyone put that "1 gigawatt of capacity" into perspective?

One-gigawatt of capacity -- that means the site will require a gigawatt of energy to run. 

One-gigawatt is the size of a typical nuclear plant.


***********************************
Stargate

Stargate: from oilprice:

And while reading .... remember the old saying, a rising tide raises all boats ...


Trump has been in office less than 24 hours.

The Sixth Industrial Revolution. Talked about often on the blog.  

Stargate: $0.5 trillion. HQ: Texas -- but no more specific than that. Most likely: somewhere along I-35 north of Austin towards Round Rock / Georgetown.

The Verge, link here:

A plan to build a system of data centers for artificial intelligence has been revealed in a White House press conference, with Masayoshi Son, Sam Altman, and Larry Ellison joining Donald Trump to announce The Stargate Project. Their companies, Softbank, OpenAI, and Oracle (respectively), along with MGX are listed as “initial equity funders” for $500 billion in investments over the next four years, “building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.

Getting bigger, every update:


Link here
. Microsoft apparently involved in this project -- unnamed source.

Link here.


More:

Ticker:

**************************
Links

*************************
Oracle Headquarters / Locations


Google maps identifies two Oracle sites in Austin:



GDP Estimate Unchanged -- Trending Toward 3% -- February 8, 2025

Locator: 48508GDP.

Link here.

************************
My Favorite Chart

MMFs. 

$6.92 trillion.

Link here.

In case you missed it.


It's hard to believe we won't hit $7 trillion this year.

************************************
60/40 Investing Is Dead

Link here.

Wow, I've said this for years on the blog, and "lived" it for more than 40 years of investing.


But not everyone is convinced:

That means bonds will no longer act as a buffer, but it also doesn’t mean investors should dump them in favor of stocks, says Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. He expects stocks to deliver a 6.4% annualized return over the next decade, a piddly showing compared with the two back-to-back 20%+ years for the stock market, and recommends keeping 40% in bonds. “What people need to do is stop thinking that bonds are crash insurance,” says Bianco. Instead, think of them as an income source and “a low-volatility, competitive alternative to a broad holding of stocks.”

Okay, 3% vs 6.4%. I guess that makes sense.

CDC Flu Update -- Second Wave -- Appears To Be Recent Record -- Weekly Update -- February 8, 2025

Locator: 48507FLU.

Link here.

Current flu season compared with flu season one year before Covid-19 lockdown (began March, 2020, 2020 - 2021 season); it's obvious that the flu vaccine and common sense personal protection efforts work:

Covid-19 lockdown, flu season 2020 - 2021 added to graphic, a most strange phenomenon:

All seasons since 2019: