Friday, August 23, 2019

Another Outdated List For Which You Can Pay If So Inclined -- August 23, 2019

Before you get to the paywall, the top Bakken wells based on IP, Hart Energy, dated August 1, 2019:
  • 7,088 boepd, 4,815 bo, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4H
  • 7,013 boepd, 6,800 bo, BR, Llano 34-34H,
  • 6,755 boepd, 5,130 bo, BR, Brazos 24-34H
  • 5,330 boepd, 4,661 bo, BEXP, Sorenson 2H,
  • 5,237.67 boepd, 4,341 bo; Oasis, Casey 5200 13-30B,
  • 5,200 boepd, 3,731 bo, Newfield, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, 
  • 5,133 boepd, 4,335 bo, BEXP, Sorenson 29-32 1H,
Then the paywall. The list is identical to the Hart Energy list posted June 18, 2019.

Note: it's my impression that these Hart Energy lists are outdated.

My list of high IPs is located here. Note at that list there are several wells with IPs much greater than 6,800 bopd-24-hour flow. For example (and these are "oil" not boe):
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 144K in less than 3 months;
  • 35323, 9,614, MRO, Driftwood USA 41-17H, Reunion Bay, t5/19; cum 98K in 40 days;
  • 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 411K 6/19; TD: 23,722 feet;
  • 32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Three Forks B2, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 291K 6/19; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; see this post with production profile;
  • 32972, 8,887, MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, fracked 6/25/2018 -- 7/9/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight 11% sand by weight, t8/18; cum 354K 6/19; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;  
  • 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/9/18 - 7/25/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight 12% sand by weight, t8/18; cum 365K 6/19; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;
  • 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 417K 6/19;
  • 33493, 8,160, MRO, Mark USA 11-1H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t4/18; cum 375K 6/19; 
  • 34428, 7,993, MRO, Klaus 11-28H, runs south, API: 33-025-03422, 9.3 million gallons; 89% water by mass; Bailey, t12/18; cum 212K 6/19; tracked here; (#23980, #17883 -- both off-line)
  • 34860, 7,889, MRO, Bruhn USA 21-17H, Reunion Bay, t5/15; cum 126K in 50 days;
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 453K 6/19;
  • 34045, 7,152, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, t3/19; cum 96K in less than 3 months; see this post;
  • 33941, 6,943, MRO, Rue USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04120, t10/18; cum 282K 6/19;
Disclaimer: because I did not access the Hart Energy site, it's possible they have an updated list and a much better list than I do, but ....

Take the time and look at some of those "totals" and the short period in which those totals were reached.

For Those Who Are Not Yet Woke On The Global Warming Scam -- August 23, 2019


August 24, 2019: I was certainly duped, or suckered into this on. The article linked at the original post did not tell the whole story. Here's the rest of the story from a reader:
Japan is actually vigorously investing in the research, technology, and implementation of what is known as HELE ... High  Energy Low Emissions coal  burning for electricity generation.

Some of the particulars involve highly pulverizing the fuel, using an oxygen rich combustion environment, higher boiler pressures, and many other components.
They are so far advanced in this field that they are touting its buildout - under Japanese contracting - all around the world.
I should have looked at the source of the article. The source: Greenpeace.

Some will argue that there is no such thing as clean coal but that brings us to a whole new discussion for another day. Bottom line here: the bigger story here, as far as the blog is concerned, is not that Japan is still using coal, but that we  have yet another example of a type of "fake news."

Original Post

Anyone who hasn't figured out the "global warming" issue is one big scam has not been paying attention.

For those who need yet another example, Don provided this link from The Diplomat, published last October, 2018, but most of us missed it, including me.

From the link:
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been on a charm offensive recently on climate change. He’s talked about Japan’s leading role in taking action on climate issues, and his intention to make climate change a key agenda item at this year’s G20 meeting. This should come as no surprise given how extreme weather events such as heat waves and flooding have recently wracked part of the country. [Fake news.]

But Abe’s addiction to coal shows that this charm offensive lacks substance, especially when it comes to Japan’s own energy policy. In Japan’s latest energy strategy published in June, coal remains a major part of the energy mix into the future. Currently, the coal fleet in Japan is growing, not decreasing: At the moment, 35 new coal power plant are in the pipeline all over Japan, adding to the around 100 coal plants already in operation. If all of these plants are built, 107.920 million tonnes of CO2 will be emitted annually, and according to analysis by Climate Analytics, Japan’s share of the Paris Agreement carbon budget would be exceeded by about three times.

Among G7 nations, Japan is also one of the biggest investors in coal power globally. Besides expanding the domestic coal fleet, Japan is subsidizing the export of coal-fired power plants to other countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, Abe’s stubborn push for an unrealistic amount of nuclear plant restarts is slowing the necessary large-scale phase in of renewable energy. Even though most of Japan’s nuclear plants remain out of operation and are unlikely to be brought online anytime soon due to safety issues, public opposition, and legal hurdles, the government has insisted on keeping the share of nuclear high in its 2030 energy scenario. This in turn translates to high uncertainty about future electricity generation capacity as well as hindering grid access for renewable developers.

Bruin Reports A Huge Well In Tyrone Oil Field North Of Williston -- August 23, 2019

I am convinced that the qualify of the Bakken wells are determined by the following:
  • location
  • location
  • location
  • fracking completion strategy
  • operator
  • geologist consulting service
This supports my thesis.

I've never considered the Tyrone oil field all that great. Located north of Williston it seems to be a bit hit-or-miss. But look at this, a Bruin well:
  • 36127, 3,537, Bruin, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-3H, 60 stages; 16 million lbs, Tryone, t719; cum --; the pay zone was 16' - 26' below the top of the middle Bakken; gas ranged as high as 3,102 units in the lateral;
I need to update the Tyrone oil field, but of the wells whose results I have posted for the Tyrone oil field, the IP for this well holds the record.

Later: I updated the data at the Tyrone oil field. There is a well with a bigger IP than the one above:
  • 29539, 4,635, Bruin/HRC, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-2H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --;
The Borrud wells are turning out to be great wells. It looks like this area might be a better Three Forks area than a middle Bakken play.

WTI Slumps; The Trade War Spreads -- August 23, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6462533176

Seven new permits, #36898 - #36904, inclusive:
  • Operators: Nine Point Energy (5): Petroshale (2)
  • Fields: Squires (WMS); Bear Den (MCK)
  • Comments:
    • Nine Point Energy has permits for a 5-well Shaffer pad in section 27-155-102, Squires oil field, north of Williston;
    • Petroshale has permits for a two more wells for their Frontiermen pad in section 30-149-95, Bear Den oil field
One producing wells (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 30889, 311, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-99B, Poe, t7/19; cum --; 

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Barely Keeping Up -- August 23, 2019

Link here. Record production and barely keeping up with US consumer demand. What a great country!


Until the after-school students arrive, Sophia is now the oldest child at her Tutor Time, and she loves it.

The Sports Page

Wow, the NBC Golf channel is doing an incredibly bad job televising the FedEx tour champiosnhip.

They are spending more time covering "big names" practicing and very little time actually providing video of live golf.

Very, very disappointing. Possibly the worse coverage I've seen in years.

And if you like commercials, NBC Golf channel is the place to be. Wow. What a disappointment. I guess this is what happens when both Tiger and Phil miss the cut.

Later: and now, barely into the second round, the tournament is "called" due to thunderstorms.  This may just rank as one of the lowest-watched PGA FedEx championships ever.

Interestingly, I have yet to see a FedEx commercial.

So, back tomorrow.

Map Time -- August 23, 2019

Remember that Pembina / Kinder Morgan story earlier this week? Quick: what was the most important "word" in that story? Hint: it was a hyphenated word. From the link:
Pembina Pipeline, based in Calgary, is snapping up Kinder’s Canadian assets and a cross-border pipeline in a $3.3 billion deal. For Houston-based Kinder, the deal completes an exit from a country that has frustrated more than a few companies -- from ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell to Marathon Oil.
Yup: cross-border. Those easements are nice to have.

Anyone wonder where that pipeline crosses the border? Look no further:

Buried in this Reuters article that no one is talking about:
The Cochin pipeline can carry 95,000 barrels per day of U.S. condensate - an ultra-light oil - into Alberta to dilute the heavy crude it produces. Reversing that pipeline would ease constraints on Canadian export pipelines, and Dilger said the company may consider that option. 
Wow, I love this blog.

Now to find that 44-mile pipeline carrying propane from a natural gas processing plant in central McKenzie County to "Andeavor/Belfield."

This is a map of the natural gas processing plants in North Dakota. The article said that the pipeline originated at a natural gas processing plant in "central McKenzie County." That's possible but there is no such plant "44 miles" from Belfield. However, there is a natural gas processing plant exactly "44 miles" from Belfield in central Dunn County.

It matters not at all. The exercise was undertaken to remind / re-acquaint readers of the location of natural gas processing plants in North Dakota.

By the way, where is the 60-well Long Creek Unit that CLR is developing?

Drillinginfo Is Now "Enverus" -- Energy, Veracity, And Us (Humanity) -- August 23, 2019

Drillinginfo changes its name to Enverus "to better reflect the company's identify." Link here.

Let's see.

"Drilling Info" suggests something to me.

"Enverus"? Not so much.

So, here it is:
  • EN: the energy industry
  • VER: clarity and truth
  • US: partnership, collaboration, people, and humanity
I'm not sure what the difference is between people and humanity but then that's probably just me.

From the company:
“Our company’s purpose is to create the future of the energy industry together in collaboration with our customers and partners. This is a larger mission than we began with and represents our evolution to becoming Enverus,” Allen Gilmer, co-founder and visionary of the company, said in a release.
“This business was started by ‘oilpatch kids’ in 1999 when the industry was on the cusp of both a massive digital revolution and a once-in-a-lifetime disruption from unconventional oil and gas, Gilmer continued. “Over time, that team built a recognizable and iconic organization throughout the upstream oil and gas businesses…from the beginning, we have fueled ourselves by the power of our phenomenal people, and those people are now building the most important, integrated problem-solving platform across the world’s largest, most significant and impactful industry ever – energy.”
What I will be most interested in is whether the company can move beyond the metrics of conventional oil to the metrics of the shale revolution.

So far I've not seen any good examples of anyone moving beyond the old metrics. And the shale revolution is now at least 20 years old. 

Keystone XL -- Nebraska -- Hope Springs Eternal -- August 23, 2019

From twitter moments ago:

Later: see the "Seward jog" here.

Another Bogus Story: The US Drowns The World In Oil

Nope, Virginia, the world is not going to be drowning in oil in 2029.

This might be as good a time as ever to re-look at that "US to drown the world in oil" story that went viral a few days ago.

Something didn't ring true about that article when I first read it, but I couldn't put my finger on it.

Remember, this was at an anti-oil, green energy site. Why would they post such a story? It's obvious they were posting the story to scare folks about how much oil (i.e., CO2 emissions] the US was going to produce over the next ten years, a "call to arms," as such, to keep this from happening. If I recall correctly the data for that article came from Rystad Energy.

This is what caught my attention. There were some interesting data points not mentioned in the article.

For example:
  • total global supply
  • total global demand
This is what also caught my attention.

Not one Mideast country is contributing any significant amount of new oil or natural gas to the global supply by 2029 (and perhaps earlier). By 2029, Saudi Arabia will be a net importer of oil.  By 2029, Russia will not be adding any more new oil and gas more than Ohio. One has to assume that if Russia's production is growing only  as much as Ohio, Russia's growth in exports will be similarly constrained; they will need it for themselves Mexico, Venezuela, Norway are not on the list.

Think about that. Assuming global growth pretty much matches global demand, if it were not for the US, the global shortfall would be huge.

That's the real take home message in the graphics at that post.

By 2029 the world is not going to be drowning in oil. The US won't be drowning the world in oil. In fact, the US will be the major source for new oil and gas in 2029, but supply will not exceed demand by much; there won't be anyone drowning in oil.

The flip side of all that hand-wringing by Global Witness is opportunity. For the US.

From a white paper published in 2018, looking out to 2035, McKinsey provided this reference case:
  • We expect growth in oil supply to come from (1) OPEC, (2) US shale oil and (3) selected offshore basins e.g. Brazil that are breaking-even below USD75/bb; ample resource base and cost discipline keeps long term average prices at USD65-75/ bbl 
  • The outlook is combined with a peak in demand growth in the early 2030s - driven by slower chemicals growth and peak transport demand as fuel economy, electrification, & reduced car ownership decreases oil consumption 
  • By 2035, under our base case E&P companies need to add >40 MMb/d of new crude production from mainly offshore and shale unsanctioned projects to meet demand, and ~4- 5% of these new additions will come from YTF resources.
["YTF" = "yet to find."]

But think about that.

Today, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States produce about 40 million bopd. An amount equal to that will need "to be found" (and the infrastructure to support it) to meet global demand by 2035.

McKinsey does provide an alternative scenario in which there is an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels. If that were to occur, McKinsey concludes:
  • A radical disruption scenario in road transport and chemicals sectors brings peak oil demand before 2025, and a ~30 MMb/d decline by 2035 compared to the Reference Case
  • Liquids demand disruptions reduce the need for unsanctioned projects by ~50%, driving project cancellations and delays mostly in offshore regions and oil sands
  • The reduced supply stack leads the average global crude slate to become more sour 
  • Lower oil demand could subsequently drive OFSE and refinery utilization down, with European refineries feeling the strongest impact; there could be further opportunities in decarbonization
The tea leaves do not suggest to me we will see that "accelerated transition" but even so, let's say we do, read the McKinsey summary very, very closely. If I'm reading that correctly, even in the Accelerated Transition case, global demand for liquids will increase by 10 million bpd by 2035.

Four Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- August 23, 2019

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, August 23, 2019: 64 for the month; 111 for the quarter:
  • 35978, SI/NC, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-2H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 35601, SI/NC, XTO, Cole 44X-32F, Siverston,
  • 35042, drl, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-9, Blue Buttes,
  • 32951, 79 (no typo), BR, State Dodge 2B MBH, Dimmick Lake, t5/19; cum 8K over 8 days;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6462533176

RBN Energy: the push for more gas pipeline capacity from western Canada, part 4.
The rise in unconventional natural gas supplies in Western Canada has forced the region to again confront a dilemma that it faced in the 1990s and early 2000s: not enough export pipeline capacity to move all that gas to market. Although demand for natural gas has been growing in Alberta’s oil sands and power generation markets, it has not kept pace with provincial gas supply growth, leading to oversupply conditions and historically low gas prices. The need to export more of the gas to other parts of Canada and the U.S. is driving some pipeline expansions in the region. The question is, will they be enough? Today, we provide an update on the utilization of existing export routes, as well as the prospects (or lack thereof) for takeaway expansions, starting with Westcoast Energy Pipeline.
This is Part 4 of our series analyzing the Western Canadian gas market. Earlier, we discussed the most obvious signs of a gas market facing change and challenges: weakening gas prices at AECO — the national benchmark hub — both on an absolute basis and relative to U.S. benchmark Henry Hub. Specifically, growing gas supplies and pipeline constraints have created one of the weakest gas price environments in Western Canada in 20 years.
Later we explained why gas supplies in Western Canada have been rising, despite the weak gas pricing environment of the past few years: lower production costs in unconventional gas plays such as the Montney formation, and the growing share of production coming from plays where gas is more of a by-product of drilling for more economically attractive resources, namely NGLs.
Then we considered some of the local demand outlets for all of that gas supply growth and concluded that rising gas demand in Alberta — from gas use in oil-sands production and power generation — has the potential to absorb some, but not all, of the growing gas supplies in Western Canada. That leaves gas deliveries to more distant markets as the only other option for any incremental supply that can’t be consumed locally. The trouble is that, as we’ve discussed in previous blogs on the topic, Western Canadian gas producers face a combination of takeaway-capacity constraints and pushback from competing U.S. gas supplies.
Today, we take a closer look at how tight that takeaway capacity has been of late and any upcoming expansions that could provide some relief.

Terms From The Bakken -- North American Shale -- August 23, 2019

I assume I've posted this before, but don't rightly recall.

Here it is again, and archived.

In Terms of the Bakken.


The phrases, words and terms that reveal the evolution of the Bakken. From energy corridors to long-reach laterals, the Bakken shale play has fostered the growth and use of industry phrases that now define the U.S. These are the most important.

For example:
Energy Corridors. The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources created the first-ever energy corridors.
The term was used to describe a top-surface geographic orientation that maximized industry’s access to well sites while minimizing their presence on the landscape.
Spacing units that once showed random wellbore lines running in all directions and at different lengths transformed into more unified images showing wells running in unison in a single direction.
North Dakota energy leaders utilized 1,280-acre spacing units to create a uniform pattern of development that helped with pipelines, electrical lines and traffic patterns.
From The Archives

The largest US oil producers, from Motley Fool, one year ago, November 24, 2018.

EOG? Number 3 of 10.

CLR is not on the list of 10. 

The data is from 2017.

Based on 2Q19 production data, CLR, at 331,414 boepd, would be #6 on that list but I assume the others have also moved up.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- August 23, 2019

Back to CBR: ND pipelines at 90% and production yet to surge. From Reuters: Bakken oil pipeline flows hit six-month high as rail to East Coast drops. Data points:
  • follows the closure of the largest US East Coast refinery in June, 2019
  • Bakken: said to be the third-largest US shale field
  • 40,000 bopd to the East Coast now stoppd
  • ND pipelines: 980,000 bopd -- utilizing more than 90% of its takeaway capacity for the first time since February
  • up from 874,000 bopd before the refinery closure
DAPL can double its capacity if ND PSC approves. Posted earlier.

Not Required, But, Hey, Why Not? What Could Possibly Go Wrong? -- August 23, 2019

The North Dakota PSC scheduled a November hearing on a proposed DAPL expansion. From The Bismarck Tribune. No hearing is required but "everyone" deserves their day in court. Data points:
  • November 13, 2019
  • Linton, ND
    • population: about 1,007 and declining
      • 2017: 1,007
      • 2010: 1,097 
      • 1990: 1,414
The Etta James Page

I'd Rather Go Blind, Beth Hart

Beth Hart at wiki.

Wow, wow, wow. She should do a one-woman Janis Joplin show. Oh, I see that she did.

Notes From Norway, Part 1 (I'm Pretty Sure There Will Be No Part 2) -- August 23, 2019

Physics - the Kelvin angle: a 127-year-old physics riddle was solved by two Norwegian grad students and their Norwegian professor who challenged the 1887 "law." Link here.

From the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Whoo-hoo!

I guess science is never settled -- except for global warming.

The professor worked out his challenge with pencil and paper; his grad students did the experiments and have the video to prove it.

Just a bit from the article:
[The professor] solved a problem regarding the so-called Kelvinangle in boat wakes, which has been unchallenged for 127 years. The boat wake is the v-shaped pattern that a boat or canoe [or mallard duck] makes when moving through the water. You've undoubtedly seen one at some point.
It has long been assumed that the angle of the v-shaped wake behind a boat should always be just below 39 degrees, as long as the water isn't too shallow. Regardless whether it's behind a supertanker or a duck, this should always be true. Or not. For like so many accepted facts, this turns out to be wrong, or at least not always the case. Ellingsen showed this. 
Ellingsen is most likely the physicist who proved some years ago -- again using college physics -- that honeybees cannot fly.

Wiki has a page on "wakes" but the site is so much more interesting.

Something tells me that Richard Feynman could explain this much better using nothing more than plastic straws floating in the ocean.

The Sports Page

From the first round of the PGA FedEx Tour Championship:

The Dance Page 

Cry To Me, Rocco & Claudia

The cha-cha was one of four basic dances I was taught at an Arthur Murray dance studio in Pasadena, CA, many decades ago. To be more accurate, the young woman tried to teach me to dance, but I was an abysmal failure. I think it was the music she selected. Or perhaps it was the Pelvic angle law.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- August 23, 2019

Canada: This was sent to me by a reader late yesterday afternoon. I was just beginning my afternoon-early-evening-late-night-Uber-granddaughter-driving.

From that highly credible, mainstream media outlet, MSN:
Capital keeps marching out of Canada’s oil industry, with Kinder Morgan’s sale of its remaining holdings in the country on Wednesday adding to more than $30 billion of foreign company divestitures in the past three years.

Mexico first, with "no growth" in 2Q19. Now, Canada.

We've talked about Canada at length, mostly in regard to the Trans Mountain Pipeline. I suppose it was several months ago now that I first identified Canada as a no-growth country, another anti-business country. It looks like MSN is woke.

I saw this story over at Rigzone yesterday but failed to post it then. What a doofus. I completely missed the significance of this story:
Pembina Pipeline, based in Calgary, is snapping up Kinder’s Canadian assets and a cross-border pipeline in a $3.3 billion deal. For Houston-based Kinder, the deal completes an exit from a country that has frustrated more than a few companies -- from ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell to Marathon Oil.
More from the article and then I'll quit:
The drumbeat of exits, rare for such a stable oil-producing country, adds an extra layer of gloom for an industry that accounts for about a fifth of Canada’s exports. The energy sector -- centered around Alberta’s oil sands -- has struggled to rebound since the 2014 crash in global oil prices, with capital spending declining for five straight years and job cuts pushing the province’s unemployment rate above 6%. Alberta is forecast to post the slowest growth of any region in Canada this year.
The situation isn’t likely to improve any time soon, with key pipelines like TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL and Enbridge Inc.’s expansion of its Line 3 conduit bogged down by legal challenges. The lack of pipelines has weighed on Canadian heavy crude prices for years, sending them to a record low late in 2018.
Canada foreign exchange reserves at this link.

US dollar / Canadian dollar exchange rate at this link. I would look at the 10-year history to see how far Canada has fallen.

Other recent major exist from Canada:
Other recent major exits include ConocoPhillips’ $13.2 billion sale of its oil-sands and natural gas assets to Cenovus Energy Inc. in 2017, and Shell’s and Marathon’s sales of their stakes in an oil-sands project to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. for about $10.7 billion that same year. Canadian Natural also bought Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy Corp.’s Canadian heavy oil assets this year for $2.79 billion. Norway’s Equinor ASA pulled out in 2016 after facing pressure at home to invest in lower-emission projects.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- August 23, 2019

Wow, there is so much news out there, it's impossible to keep up. I used to blog between the hours of 5:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m. but it now appears I need to add a third shift, 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m.

The hour from 4:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. will be reserved for reading e-mail from readers.

First, this, a story that connects so many dots, I can't even begin. Here's the headline -- Shell enters Australia power industry with a $420 million bid for ERM Power. Link here. Data points and comments:
  • this is RDS' first foray into Australia's highly competitive power sector
  • a $420 million takeover offer for ERM Power Ltd, Australia's second largest energy retailer to businesses and industry
  • the deal would instantly give Shell a power supplier with almost a quarter share of the commercial and industrial retail market in Australia, second only to Origin Energy in that space
  • Shell will also get two gas-fired power stations
  • it's all about green energy:
Shell, already one of Australia’s biggest gas producers, wants to use its global scale in oil and gas to build a power business, as the world rapidly shifts toward cleaner energy. It plans to boost annual spending on the strategy to between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2025.
I think the oilprice headline is even better: Shell takes step toward becoming world's largest power utility

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, now that Mexico has put a brilliant socialist in charge, Mexico is about ready to fall into a recession, if it's not already there. No link. Story everywhere.

Of course, the US recession is also "right around the corner."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Remember that story about the US to "drown the world" in oil, 2020 - 2029? After further thought, the writer of that story got it completely wrong -- got the thesis of the story or the conclusions she/he drew completely wrong. I'll get back to that later. But it's pretty obvious; I'm embarrassed I didn't realize that when I posted the story.

Global break-even prices for oil: much of this from oilprice and Bloomberg --
  • Russia budget, 2019: Russia's budget is based on an average price of $40/bbl
  • Saudi Arabia budget, 2019: needs $80 - $85/bbl to break even this year
  • Russia won't let oil price rise that high ($80 - $85) -- that price would weaken demand for its own product which accounts for 40% of its national budget
  • Putin feels current Brent Crude at $60 - $65, where it currently trades, as just about right
  • Russia says its breakeven price for Urals Crude is $49.20, the lowest break-even price in over a decade; Urals Crude, Russia's key
  • the US? as far as I'm concerned, $55 is at the low end of the sweet spot for price of WTI; I'm thinking $60 could be quite bullish -- the actual number is less important than the trend
Gasoline: will likely go below $2.00/gallon this autumn here in the south.

Going Back Home, Wilko Johnson, Roger Daltrey