Locator: 48426VENISON.
Easiest way to send photos to a family and friends and to the individual who shot the deer, and then gave us a lot of venison (steaks, sausage, venison-burger). But other than that, nothing for the blog. Simply for the family and friend archives.
Photos below should be self-explanatory.
Two venison steaks; two different dry rubs.
And then served.
It was very, very close, but we preferred the pork and lamb rub, Grapevine, TX.
Locator: 48425AAPL.
For folks following the fires in southern California .... well if you know, you know.
Full disclosure: I have an iPhone and T-Mobile with a plan that will never raise rates.
Apparently they've been working on this for quite some time and they've been able to keep it a secret all this time?
We'll know more, perhaps, tomorrow.
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Magnificent 7 CAPEX 2025
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IPOs
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Venture Global
Locator: 48424B.
NOG: ups dividend 12% y/y. Link here.
WTI: $73.77.
Active rigs: 33.
Five new permits, #41556 - #41560, inclusive:
Permit reinstatement:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Locator: 48422OILPRODUCTION.
From visualizingenergy.org, today. This chart is from Boston University.
AI:
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A Shortage As Soon As 2012
DOD: Joint Operating Command
October 27, 2011
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
This was back when DOD was paying $126 / gallon for algae-produced aviation fuel.
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Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:
This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot
below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to
follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping
below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it
again.
Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.
Locator: 48421LLOYD.
This well is tracked here.
The well:
Note the huge jump:
| BAKKEN | 5-2023 | 25 | 14006 | 14187 | 19428 | 51329 | 12727 | 38602 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2023 | 30 | 19370 | 19338 | 24537 | 53211 | 17239 | 35972 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2023 | 31 | 20400 | 20263 | 28076 | 46410 | 423 | 45987 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2023 | 27 | 11110 | 10963 | 27758 | 21600 | 3373 | 18227 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2023 | 2 | 212 | 349 | 1086 | 230 | 0 | 230 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2022 | 11 | 10017 | 10069 | 12710 | 16994 | 454 | 16540 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2022 | 30 | 16581 | 16691 | 42378 | 26568 | 3546 | 23022 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 31 | 9054 | 8995 | 50380 | 15118 | 2427 | 12691 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 8 | 1319 | 1043 | 20253 | 1881 | 362 | 1519 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 6 | 136 | 234 | 291 | 136 | 134 | 2 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 14 | 739 | 786 | 541 | 1953 | 1668 | 237 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 1843 | 1852 | 1178 | 3954 | 3838 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 1944 | 1933 | 1040 | 3129 | 2937 | 84 |
Locator: 48420CLR.
These wells are tracked here.
The wells:
Locator: 48419KANNIANEN.
The Kannianen wells are tracked here.
The well:
Initial production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 11-2024 | 30 | 7013 | 7083 | 1850 | 27090 | 27030 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2024 | 31 | 7793 | 7685 | 2026 | 28675 | 28613 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2024 | 30 | 7780 | 7730 | 1185 | 26848 | 26402 | 386 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 31 | 8054 | 8056 | 1389 | 27798 | 27737 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 31 | 8137 | 8153 | 2019 | 27616 | 27495 | 59 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 30 | 8442 | 8440 | 1166 | 28264 | 28204 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 31 | 9487 | 9488 | 1410 | 30630 | 30568 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 30 | 10162 | 10304 | 1421 | 31068 | 31008 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 31 | 11631 | 11660 | 1115 | 32125 | 32063 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 29 | 13709 | 13576 | 1874 | 27675 | 27618 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 14 | 7185 | 7265 | 796 | 10302 | 10275 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 31 | 15241 | 15316 | 1623 | 20170 | 20108 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2023 | 30 | 16134 | 16114 | 3224 | 19265 | 19205 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2023 | 31 | 18240 | 18234 | 3854 | 23882 | 23820 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2023 | 30 | 21515 | 21609 | 4659 | 31734 | 31270 | 404 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2023 | 29 | 25973 | 25979 | 5142 | 36673 | 36586 | 30 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2023 | 31 | 26254 | 26229 | 8509 | 34340 | 34278 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2023 | 30 | 24928 | 24866 | 2926 | 27384 | 27325 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2023 | 31 | 26537 | 26533 | 2749 | 26147 | 25935 | 150 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2023 | 30 | 29638 | 29470 | 3265 | 28037 | 27768 | 210 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2023 | 31 | 30052 | 30317 | 6296 | 21755 | 21498 | 198 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2023 | 28 | 30969 | 31062 | 9365 | 22838 | 22757 | 25 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2023 | 31 | 31060 | 30956 | 16238 | 27361 | 27110 | 190 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2022 | 31 | 28266 | 27754 | 29402 | 23265 | 22811 | 396 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Locator: 48418LEGACYFUND.
Legacy Fund, October, 2024, link here:
Legacy Fund assets are allocated according to policies set by the Legacy and Budget Stabilization Fund Advisory Board, which consists of six state legislators and four citizen members. The SIB follows these policies and state law when managing the assets. The SIB’s Investment Committee provides oversight of the investments within the established parameters.
These policies have generated positive returns for North Dakota taxpayers, with a five-year annualized return of 6.6% that has outpaced the inflation rate by over 2% and exceeds its policy benchmark return of 5.8%.
What little I know about the "Advisory Board," they seem to be over-thinking how to invest.
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From AI
Locator: 48417B.
AI today:
After all these years, the link in the original post still works.
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Flashback
How big is the Bakken? Flashback to September 30, 2011.
Link here.
This is the WSJ's weekend interview; a big thank you to Chris for alerting me to it.
Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma-based founder and CEO of Continental Resources, the 14th-largest oil company in America, is a man who thinks big. He came to Washington last month to spread a needed message of economic optimism: With the right set of national energy policies, the United States could be "completely energy independent by the end of the decade. We can be the Saudi Arabia of oil and natural gas in the 21st century."Not only riding the wrong horse, he's riding with the wrong posse.
"President Obama is riding the wrong horse on energy," he adds. We can't come anywhere near the scale of energy production to achieve energy independence by pouring tax dollars into "green energy" sources like wind and solar, he argues. It has to come from oil and gas.
"Bakken is almost twice as big as the oil reserve in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska," he continues. According to Department of Energy data, North Dakota is on pace to surpass California in oil production in the next few years. Mr. Hamm explains over lunch in Washington, D.C., that the more his company drills, the more oil it finds. Continental Resources has seen its "proved reserves" of oil and natural gas (mostly in North Dakota) skyrocket to 421 million barrels this summer from 118 million barrels in 2006.The president's reaction:
When it was Mr. Hamm's turn to talk briefly with President Obama, "I told him of the revolution in the oil and gas industry and how we have the capacity to produce enough oil to enable America to replace OPEC. I wanted to make sure he knew about this."
The president's reaction?
"[President Obama] turned to me and said,
'Oil and gas will be important for the next few years. But we need to go on to green and alternative energy. [Energy] Secretary [Steven] Chu has assured me that within five years, we can have a battery developed that will make a car with the equivalent of 130 miles per gallon.'"
Mr. Hamm holds his head in his hands and says, "Even if you believed that, why would you want to stop oil and gas development? It was pretty disappointing."I've tagged this note for follow-up in October, 2016, five years from now.
Locator: 48416OIL.
January 28, 2025: price of oil continues to drop. Currently trending back toward $70 / bbl.
Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:
This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot
below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to
follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping
below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it
again.
Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.
Locator: 48415LUDDITE.
Last week Maureen Dowd referred to Donald Trump as a Luddite.
That did not age well. Google Maureen Down thoughts on AI.
By the way, I used to think that celebrities, politicians, etc., who said they did not have / did not use e-mail were Luddites. I was way wrong. There is a very good reason why celebrities, politicians, etc., do not use e-mail. They can afford not to use e-mail. The rest of us really can't afford that luxury.
Today, link here, note the tickers:
Locator: 48414BATCAVE.
The bat cave after a winter of little use. Need to prepare for spring / summer.
Locator: 48412B.
Rare earths are tracked here.
A reader, thank you very much, alerted me to this announcement.
Rare Earths. North Dakota. Just a matter of time. Link here.
North Dakota House Bill 1459: A BILL for an Act to create and enact a new chapter to title 38 of the North Dakota Century Code, relating to regulations, development, and production of critical minerals and rare earth elements; to amend and reenact section 47-10-24 of the North Dakota Century Code, relating to descriptions and definitions of minerals in leases and conveyances; and to provide a penalty.
The legislation creates a new chapter in the state's legal code that defines key terms such as "critical minerals" (which include 35 specific minerals essential to economic or national security) and "rare earth elements" (metallic elements like lanthanide series, yttrium, and scandium).
The bill also amends existing mineral rights law to clarify that leases for coal are now deemed to include critical minerals and rare earth elements associated with coal seams, unless specifically excluded.
Twelve sponsors: eleven Republicans, one Democrat.
The "coal lobby" is going to like how "they" were grandfathered in to this potential windfall.
Starbucks, back to the future: announces significant changes for those visiting their coffee shops. Link here.
Perhaps a year ago or so, I would bike to and stay at the nearby Starbucks for several hours, blogging and reading, almost every day, but I noted that despite being such a regular customer, I never got even got a free refill -- big deal -- LOL -- but it was the thought that counted .... it was common to see folks come in to get a free 16-ounce plastic cup of ice water and never buy anything -- middle school and high school kids really enjoyed the experience -- but that's all changing.
I still have no plans to return. My biking routine has changed, that's the biggest reason. Second, it's still way too expensive, and third, but way down the list, "sticky" decision. Once patterns / habits change, it takes a while for folks to change their patterns / habits. My hunch: not much is going to change with regard to foot traffic at Starbucks except to keep the riff-raff out. Cost: $3.00 / visit was typical. On my Starbucks card I never noticed the expense. Simply reloaded my card every so often and then forgot about it. Really, really silly. I could buy a lot of eggs for the amount I was spending on a 40-cent cup of coffee made at home.
I did get a lot of reading done. Now, at home, I'm distracted by television. I didn't stream video / play YouTube while at Starbucks. Don't know why; just didn't.
Tarantula Nebula: Hubble today. Launched in 1990.
Local universe. 160,000 light years away. However far light travels in one year multiply that by 160,000. The nebula in the Large Magellanic Cloud is home to some of the most massive stars ever observed.
At only 161,000 light-years away in the Large Magellanic Cloud galaxy, the Tarantula Nebula is the largest and brightest star-forming region in the Local Group, the galaxies nearest our Milky Way. It is home to the hottest, most massive stars known.
What blows me away: after all these years of looking, not one bit of evidence of any other "intelligent" life outside of the Solar System. Why is he "Local Group" so special?
Most egregious political story last week: a new low. Blood feud. Shakespearean in nature, without the bloodshed.
Funny how things worked out. A bigger story not being reported: was Mitch McConnell duped? Link here. Position 1 in The Wall Street Journal. First reported on x; apparently someone at TWSJ saw the tweet and confirmed.
Spectator sport: yesterday's market action.
Chinese GPT: gullible. See disclaimer below. Funny about Americans.
They trust logging into some incredibly powerful Chinese bot and then complain about "lack of security / privacy concerns" when using Microsoft or Apple. Yeah, I'm going to download that app on to my computer. LOL. One would have thought TikTok would have taught them something.
x: amazing how fast tech tweets disappeared from my twitter feed in the past 24 hours. Crickets. Cramer had a few things to say but that was about it.
ARKK: the one-day chart is even more remarkable.
For the small, mom-and-pop retail investor: just what the doctor ordered. LOL.
Luxury garages: could become a thing locally. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $73.79.
New wells:
RBN Energy: lower profits, cash flows help push share prices down for diversified E&Ps.
One of the most important but elusive factors that drive movements in share prices is investor sentiment, a prevailing attitude toward anticipated future performance that past or current performance metrics may not justify. While the most extreme recent examples are social media-driven meme stocks like GameStop and AMC, no sector, including energy, is immune. Although we focus our E&P company analysis strictly on performance and price metrics, investor sentiment has and is playing a role in the share price movements among producer peer groups. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q3 2024 results of the Diversified E&P peer group with an eye toward investor sentiment.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
