Wednesday, April 3, 2019

April 3, 2019 -- Working On The Railroad, Making America Great

US railroad revolution. Link at The WSJ.
Called “precision-scheduled railroading,” or PSR, this new concept is cascading through the industry. Under pressure from Wall Street to improve performance, Norfolk Southern and other large U.S. freight carriers, including Union Pacific Corp. and Kansas City Southern, are trying to revamp their networks to use fewer trains and hold them to tighter schedules.
The moves have sparked a stock rally that has added tens of billions of dollars to railroad values in the past six months as investors anticipate lower costs and higher profits. The new approach was pioneered by the late railroad executive Hunter Harrison, who engineered turnarounds at two major Canadian railroads and Jacksonville, Fla.-based CSX Corp. by radically revamping their logistics.

Enjoying Her Kaleidoscope

The Big Story Thursday, April 4? Tesla? -- April 3, 2019

From The WSJ:
Tesla Inc. said new-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months as the electric car maker strained to ship its Model 3 compact car to Europe and China for the first time.
The Silicon Valley auto maker delivered about 63,000 vehicles in the latest period, worse than analysts’ already-lowered expectations.
Analysts on average had predicted deliveries would drop to 73,500, according to FactSet, a figure reflecting total deliveries of Model 3, Model S and Model X vehicles.
Tesla books its sales when a car is delivered. Concerns of a slow start to 2019 have raised questions about the company’s ability to deliver on ambitious sales targets after it struggled for nearly two years to increase production of the Model 3, its lowest-priced vehicle. Tesla had slashed the Model 3’s starting price three times during the quarter, finally reaching its long-promised base of $35,000, suggesting to some analysts that demand for more-expensive versions had plateaued.
So, what was the problem this time?
Last quarter was the first sales period for Tesla after the phaseout of U.S. tax credits went into effect, dropping to $3,750 from $7,500 for buyers. It eventually goes away next year.
On Wednesday, Tesla attributed the slowdown to challenges associated with taking the Model 3 overseas for the first time, noting it had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s vehicles 10 days before the period ended.
The company cautioned that lower-than-expected sales volumes along with several price cuts would negatively affect first-quarter income. It said it planned to end the quarter with “sufficient cash on hand.”
David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar Research Services, said the Model 3 “should bounce back in Q2 if the transition challenges to delivering in Europe and China are behind them.”
EV sales are tracked here.  Almost every EV make/model has reported March data; the only make not reporting yet at the link: Tesla.

Chevrolet Bolt and Volt had a great March.

Word For The Day 


Skiing Utah -- March 30, 2019

US court cedes Arctic to Russia, China, Denmark, Norway, and Canada. The US will not be allowed in. Link here.

Worthy of Nobel Prize: Paul Krugman knows all about this ... link here.

In round numbers:
  • Japan:
    • GDP: $5 trillion
    • debt: $10 trillion
  • US: 
    • GDP: $20 trillion
    • debt: $22 trillion
Paul Krugman: all's well that ends well.

Skiing Park City, Utah

Video here.

In back: Olivia, middle school.

Middle: Arianna, high school.

In foreground: Sophia, pre-K.

ND Active Rigs Plummet -- Down To 60 -- April 3, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6058482994

Four new permits:
  • Operators: BR (2); Nine Point Energy (2)
  • Fields: Spring Creek (McKenzie); Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments
    • BR has permits for a 2-well Veeder pad in section 24-150-96 in Blue Buttes oil field
    • Nine Point Energy has permits for a 2-well Hovde pad in lot 2/section 6-150-100
Five permits canceled:
  • Newfield (3): three Schneiderman permits, all in McKenzie County
  • WPX: a Grizzly permit in McKenzie County
  • Cobra Oil & Gas: a(n) SND permit in Billings County
Eleven permits renewed:
  • Missouri River Resources ND, LLC (5): five permits in section 14-148-94, Dunn County: Hoop, Fancy, Jingle, Traditional, Grass
  • Hess (4): four BB-Federal B permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG (3): two Liberty LR permits in Mountrail County; an Austin permit in Mountrail County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35291, 1,760, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22TFHU, Pembroke, t3/19; cum --;  (#20516 off line; #20596 -- off line)
  • 35290, 2,317, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22H, Pembroke, t3/19; cum --; (#26943 -- off line, #25361 -- off line)

Worth A Stand-Alone Post -- The Badlands Of North Dakota -- Valley Of The Dinosaurs -- April 3, 2019

Valley of the Last Dinosaurs from MEL Films on Vimeo.
See this post, also.

Marmarth, ND.

Middle of the North Dakota Badlands.

See first comment: this link also. Pretty amazing. This one from UC Berkeley News.

Oh-Oh! What Did WTI Just Do? Dropped 0.4% -- April 3, 2019

Immediate analysis: from oilprice.

The perils of predicting! Wow, Platts really got it wrong. What did Platts predict? See this link.

The EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.
  • crude oil inventory: surged 7.2 million bbls from the previous week; OMG!
  • crude oil inventory: now at 449.5 million bbls; considered to be at the five year average for this time of the year; interesting, huh?
  • refineries: operating at 86.4% of capacity; at low end; 
  • at week 19, at  449.5 million bbls in storage, we are now higher than we were when we started this exercise back in November, 2018, when we were at 446.9 million bbls
  • we will get a full analysis of this (and the natural gas fill rate) this Sunday, at "Focus on Fracking"
  • gasoline and distillate fuel production unremarkable
  • US crude oil imports increased slightly, but in big scheme of things, simply white noise
  • US crude oil imports: over the past four weeks, imports average 12% less than same four-week period last year (2018)

Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 10
January 31, 2019
Week 11
February 6, 2019
Week 12
February 13, 2019
Week 13
February 21, 2019
Week 14
February 27, 2019
Week 15
March 6, 2019
Week 16
March 13, 2019
Week 17
March 20, 2019
Week 18
March 27, 2019
Week 19
April 3, 2019

Co-Ed Technical School

We're looking into sending Sophia to a co-ed technical school this summer, help prepare her for a socialist future.

We've found her necessary supplies.

Wednesday, April 3, 2019, T+91, Part 2 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Link here.

It is said that if we don't act within the next twelve years, the earth is lost. (That was said back in 1994, also, but I digress.)

But even so, with something so dire, the UN gives both China and India a "pass."

Note the change in CO2 emissions (FWIW) among various countries from 1990 to 2017.

It's a difficult spreadsheet to read, especially for someone like Occasional-Cortex. Hopefully someone will change this into a bar graph or something similar to get the full effect.

The percentage changes are bad enough but look at the raw numbers, the actual tons of emitted CO2. China is more than twice that of the US. India is in the same ballpark as the EU.

  • GDP: $2.6 trillion
  • CO2 emissions: 2.5 million metric tonnes/year
  • GDP: $3.7 trillion
  • CO2 emission:  0.8 million metric tonnes/year
As Germany and India continue to add more coal plants, the situation will only get worse.

It was data like this that Facebook decided to ban ZeroHedge.

Subsequently, apparently, Facebook has reversed its decision and says it does not ban ZeroHedge.


Wednesday, April 3, 2019, T+91, Part 1

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Day 91 of the new Congress. List of accomplishments, bills passed, bills pending:

And we move on.

Market, pre-market. Watchlist:
  • WTI: $62.60
  • Dow, futures: +131
  • D: up 28 cents
  • ENB: up 19 cents
  • JAG: up 12 cents 
  • NOG: up 1 cent
  • AAPL: down 67 cents 
  • XLNX: up 92 cents; now trading over $130 (just barely)
  • CVX: up 84 cents
  • RDS-B: up 64 cents, or about 1%
  • BRK-B: up $1.03; one doesn't often see BRK-B trading pre-market
  • TSLA: up a dollar today after closing down $3 yesterday; trading below $290
Back to the Bakken

Of the fourteen wells coming off the confidential list so far this quarter, starting April 1, 2019, only four wells actually reported an IP. There were eight DUCs and three remained on DRL status:

Wednesday, April 3, 2019: 14 wells for the month; 14 wells for the quarter
  • 35499, SI/NC, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 
  • 35390, SI/NC, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-3-8-8HLW, Siverston, no production data,
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, April 2, 2019: 12 wells for the month; 12 wells for the quarter
  • 35502, SI/NC,  RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-3H, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
  • 35391, SI/NC, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 34959, 363, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Staael 2-32-5H-160-90L, Dimond, t10/18; cum 49K 2/19;
  • 34412, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 4-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
  • 34411, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 7-19-18-158N-98W TFH, Rainbow, no production data,
  • 34409, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 6-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
  • 33668, 3,278, MRO, Fannie USA 21-1H, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum 31K after 18 days;
  • 29891, 316,  Lime Rock Resources, William Sadowsky 7-4-9H-142-96, Manning, t1/19; bcum 12: 2/19;
Monday, April 1, 2019: 4 wells for the month; 4 wells for the quarter
  • 35501, SI/NC, Rimrock Oil, MC MHA 24-10-3TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
  • 35436, SI/NC, XTO, Emma 31X-30HXE, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 35219, SI/NC, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, North Fork, no production data,
  • 35218, SI/NC, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, North Fork, no production data,

Rigs Drop To 62 In North Dakota -- Aprile 3, 2019

Sempra: gets licenses to export US LNG out of Mexico. "Laundering" natural gas? LOL. 
The US Department of Energy has authorized the Energia Costa Azul LNG export project in northwest Mexico to re-export US pipeline gas as LNG to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the US.
The DOE on 29 March issued two 20-year non-FTA export licenses to ECA, which is owned by Mexico City-based Infrastructure Energetica Nova, which in turn is 66.43 percent owned by San Diego-based Sempra Energy.
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, April 3, 2019: 14 wells for the month; 14 wells for the quarter
  • 35499, SI/NC, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, no production data, 
  • 35390, SI/NC, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-3-8-8HLW, Siverston, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6258482994

RBN Energy: the frack sand revolution, part 3. Archived, along with parts 1 and 2.
A primary focus of E&Ps during the Shale Era has been driving down the cost of drilling and completing wells — doing so lowers producers’ break-even costs and increases their profitability. With the volumes of frac sand being used in the Permian and many other plays having grown dramatically in the past five years, a big push is on not only to minimize the cost of the sand itself, but to maximize the efficiency of sand delivery and sand management at the well site. All this has been spurring E&Ps to assume responsibility from oilfield service companies for the frac sand supply chain — anything from directly sourcing the sand to managing “last-mile” logistics. Today, we continue our series on the rapidly changing frac-sand world, this time concentrating on producers’ growing involvement in sand procurement and management.