Sunday, November 5, 2017

I Don't Recall This Being Reported By The Mainstream Media -- November 5, 2017


California Gas Taxes Go Up This Week

From PennEnergy:
Gasoline taxes will rise by 12 cents per gallon Wednesday — and diesel taxes by even more — to raise money for fixing roads and highways.

It's the first of several tax and fee hikes that will take effect after Democratic lawmakers approved them earlier this year, a vote that Republicans see as a key issue in the 2018 election.

Californians already pay some of the highest gas prices in the country. On Tuesday, California's statewide average of $3.04 per gallon was about 57 cents higher than the national average and the highest in the continental U.S.

The price increase for gasoline will be mitigated because it coincides with the annual shift to a winter blend of gasoline, which generally reduces prices by about 6 cents per gallon.

Diesel taxes will go up by 20 cents a gallon and diesel sales taxes will rise by 4 points to 13 percent.

Californians will also have to pay a fee of $25 to $175, depending on the value of their vehicle, when they renew their registration next year. Zero-emission vehicle owners will pay $100 per year starting in 2020 since they don't pay gas taxes.

Sunday Night Meandering -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 5, 2017

Sports. Wow, another great NFL-free Sunday. Saw the NASCAR race in its entirety. Eric Jones finished #10 and earned some points. Good for him. It looks like we won't see the "big names" in the championship. Danica Patrick is out. Dale Earnhardt is out. Jimmy Johnson is in a do-or-die situation going into the next race. At 51 points down, I assume JJ nearly has to win next week's race to qualify for the Final 4 Race To The Finish, or whatever they call it these days. By the way, was the winning car a Ford Fusion today? I think so. But if Danica Patrick is out, is NASCAR even worth watching any more? LOL.

Vin Scully: will never watch another NFL game. Meanwhile, it is reporting that stadiums are "empty." Not quite, but lots of empty seats.

Miss American 2018 visits Williston. Was crowned Miss North Dakota earlier.
She recently visited a Children’s Miracle Network hospital in San Antonio, where she got to see nearly every patient.
Most of them were really excited to see her, but one boy wasn’t impressed.
After she talked with him for a while, he was still skeptical.
“If you’re really Miss America, are you married to Captain America?” he asked.
“I said, ‘Yes!” she recalled.
Changing names: outside of the Portland, OR, area folks may not know that Kroger is buying the Fred Meyer grocery/clothes line of "department" stores. Apparently, they've decided on a new name for the merger: Freddie Kroger. LOL.

Market. Futures mean squat but right now all three major indices are showing green. Whoo-hoo. Even WTI is holding at $55.80. [Update, later: boo-hoo -- futures turned "red" about 8:00 p.m. Central Time -- coincided with the public service announcements (PSAs) by NFL players they supported the US military men and women. Whatever. They actually have to have PSAs now to tell us they support the US military men and women (but perhaps not the US military leadership.]

Technology: wow, technology is great. A reader introduced me to a bit of technology that I did not know existed on pdf's. Lots of fun.

$1,000 camera. Speaking of technology, that reminds me. Samsung, at Costco, is now advertising the Samsung Galaxy Note 8 Phone as a Samsung Camera. It's not a phone any more. It's a camera. Which just happens to have a "phone" feature. For Apple, it's not an iPhone X any more either. It's a mobile computer with a huge touchscreen and a wi-fi stereo system. The ability to make phone calls via "the phone" is becoming less and less interesting; for all intents and purposes, the ability to talk to someone via "the phone" is simply an app. In fact, my hunch is that Sophia, our 3-year-old granddaughter, will someday ask what a phone is. She will simply touch the "talk-app," or more likely,  the "FaceTimeHologram" app. In fact, I assume with facial ID she will simply have to look at the "FaceTimeHologram" app, wink, and it will open automatically. But the CNBC crew will still say Apple is simply evolving, nothing revolutionary to see here.

Ultimate Christmas gift for grandchildren: a $1,000 Apple iPhone X with Apple Pay linked directly to Grandpa's bank account.  Does anyone really believe Apple Pay is not among the top eight favorite mobile pay apps? In 2016, it was ranked #5.

Money, Money, Money, ABBA

Book reviews: the past week I saw a number of book reviews and/or essays regarding socialism, communism, etc. I was mentioning that to our old granddaughter -- and then it dawned on me, this year is the 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution, October, 1917. Completely slipped my mind. Fifty percent of millennials say they would like to live in a socialist country: Yemen, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, top the list, I suppose. I don't even think China or Russia really qualify for true socialists any more. I don't know. Maybe Bernie would know.

Amazon deliveries: in the good old days I would order something from a catalogue or more recently, on line, and part of the excitement was the anticipation of receiving the item in the mail. The excitement has been lost. I cannot get used to it. I order something from Amazon, and I get it in two hours. I specifically ask Amazon to delay delivery (for various reasons) and items still arrive in less than two days. Drives me nuts. I can't even enjoy the excitement of anticipation any more.

Best comment all day: when it was revealed that Wilbur Ross forget to mention something regarding his financial holdings, this is what someone over at The WSJ said in a comment: "Another shoe just dropped," McCain told a CNN reporter outside a Senate office in Washington. "There will be many more shoes that drop." It's a centipede.

Nothing is ever clear. Let's see -- there's a Saudi purge and the son of the former crown prince of Saudi Arabia dies in a helicopter crash along with his closest friends, and folks can't come up with a "connection." Ask Hillary; remind her about Vince Foster. From The WSJ:
Saudi Prince Mansour bin Muqrin and a number of government officials were killed Sunday in a helicopter crash some 70 miles from the kingdom’s southern border with war-torn Yemen.
Prince Mansour is the son of prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, who resigned from his position as Saudi Arabia’s crown prince in April 2015 to make room for King Salman’s son Mohammed bin Salman.
It wasn’t immediately clear whether there was any link between the crash and a bloody Saudi Arabia-led war against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, which has raged across the border for more than two-and-a-half years.

Enerplus' Warrior Pad In Spotted Horn -- This Is How Good The Bakken Is

One-half-million bbls of crude oil / well (# 23541, #26608) in three years.  As of 9/17, still producing 7,000 bbls / month. 

The Enerplus "Warrior Pad" wells in Spotted Horn:
  • 23541, 1,545, Enerplus, Honor 150-94-06B-18H TF, 59 stages; 14.3 million lbs; Spotted Horn, t6/14; cum 723K 6/21; it's very, very subtle, but it certainly seems like a frack to the west might have had a positive impact on this well;
  • 23542, 1,007, Enerplus, Grace 150-94-06B-07H, Spotted Horn, 28 stages; 3 million lbs, t2/13; cum 380K 6/21; off line 4/20;
  • 26608, 1,601, Enerplus, Courage 150-94-06A-18H, Spotted Horn,55 stages; 13.3 million lbs, t6/14; cum 667K 6/21;
  • 26609, 1,703, Enerplus, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, Spotted Horn, 62 stages; 12.7 million lbs, t10/14; cum 574K 6/21;
The graphic:

The WPX Ruby Wells In Antelope Oil Field

The WPX Ruby Parshall wells, Antelope-Sanish:
  • 35811, 2,957, WPX, Ruby 31-30HG, Antelope-Sanish, t7/19; cum 191K 10/20; cum 219K 4/21;
  • 32598, 2,415, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HY, Antelope, Sanish, 47 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 435K 10/20; off line all of 6/19; coming back on line 7/19; cum 447K 4/21;
  • 32599, 2,386, WPX, Ruby Parshall, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 61 stages, 20 million lbs, t9/17; cum 325K 10/20; off line all of 6/19; coming back on line 7/19; cum 335K 4/21;
  • 32600, 2,306, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HZ, Antelope, 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 406K 10/20; off line all of 6/19; coming back on line 7/19; cum 425K 4/21;
The Ruby wells:
  • 23483, 1,471, WPX, Ruby 31-30HB, Antelope, t1/13; cum 426K 10/20; off line all of 6/19 and 7/19; cum 435K 4/21;
  • 23482, 1,503, WPX, Ruby 31-30HW, Antelope, t8/14; cum 283K 10/20; off line all of 6/19 and 7/19; cum 291K 4/21;
  • 23481, 1,399, WPX, Ruby 31-30HA, Antelope, t8/14; cum 303K 10/20; off line all of 6/19 and 7/19; cum 309K 4/21;
  • 27728, 1,458, WPX, Ruby 31-30HX, Antelope, t8/14; cum 339K 10/20; off line all of 6/19 and 7/19; cum 350K 4/21;
  • 36089, SI/NC-->220, WPX, Ruby 31-30HEL, Antelope, first production, 6/19; cum 21K over 38 days; cum 169K 10/20; cum 198K 4/21;
The graphic:

These Wells Come Off Confidential List The Week Of November 6, 2017

32598, 32598, 2,415, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HY, Antelope, Sanish, 47 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 36K over 21 days;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32599, 2,386, WPX, Ruby Parshall, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 61 stages, 20 million lbs, t9/17; cum 22K over 21 days; :

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32600, 2,306, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HZ, Antelope, 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 42K 9/17:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- November 5, 2017

Monday, November 13, 2017: 24 for the month; 61 for the quarter

Sunday, November 12, 2017: 24 for the month; 61 for the quarter
32999, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 7-36-25-158N-100W TFH
29070, conf, BR, CCU Audubon 31-27TFH, 

Saturday, November 11, 2017: 22 for the month; 59 for the quarter
33127, conf, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-6,
31464, conf, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-8H, McGregory Buttes, producing,
30640, conf, Whiting, Obrigewitch 44-8PHU, Bell, producing,
29069, conf, BR, CCU Audubon 21-27MBH,

Friday, November 10, 2017: 18 for the month; 55 for the quarter
33128, conf, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-6,
29134, conf, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-12H, McGregory Buttes, producing,
29068, conf, BR, CCU Boxcar 34-22TFH,

Thursday, November 9, 2017: 15 for the month; 52 for the quarter
33489, 839, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 3H, Squires, 50 stages; 15 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 25 days;
33129, SI/NC, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-8, Banks,
32790, 1,050, QEP, MHA 4-27-34H-148-92R, Heart Butte, Three Forks, 48 stages; 9.1 million lbs (sand/ceramic), t5/17; cum 38K 9/17; 
32598, 2,415, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HY, Antelope, Sanish, 47 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 36K over 21 days;
31345, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dressler 4-36-25-158N-100W, Dublin
29067, SI/NC, BR, CCU Boxcar 24-22MBH, Corral Creek,

Wednesday, November 8, 2017: 9 for the month; 46 for the quarter 33490, 839, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 4H, Squires, 50 stages, 15 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 25 days;
33488, 845, Kraken Operating, Kari 30-19 2H, Squires, 50 stages, 15.4 million lbs, t9/17; cum 14K over 23 days; producing,
32599, 2,386, WPX, Ruby Parshall, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks, 61 stages, 20 million lbs, t9/17; cum 22K over 21 days;
Tuesday, November 7, 2017: 6 for the month; 43 for the quarter
32600, 2,306, WPX, Ruby Parshall 31-30HZ, Antelope, 41 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum 42K 9/17;

Monday, November 6, 2017: 5 for the month; 42 for the quarter
32860, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-2,

Sunday, November 5, 2017
: 4 for the month; 41 for the quarter
32861, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-3, Antelope, 

Saturday, November 4, 2017
: 3 for the month; 40 for the quarter
32862, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-LE-153-84-2833H-1, Antelope, 

Friday, November 3, 2017: 2 for the month; 39 for the quarter

Flashback: Williston Basin Petroleum Systems As Understood In 2000

Note: in a long note like this there will be formatting errors, typographical, and factual errors. Go to linked source if this is important to you.

I assume that I saw this paper years ago, and it's even possible I read some of it. LOL.

But now that I understand the Bakken a whole lot better and in light of Lynn Helms' recent comments, it is time to go through this article a lot more closely.

The author is Daniel M. Jarvie. The manuscript was submitted for publication in February, 2000. As a reminder, the North Dakota Bakken boom began seven years later. The North Dakota Bakken boom was preceded by a smaller, perhaps unnoticed by most, the eastern Montana Bakken boom, which began in 2000, about the same time this manuscript was submitted.

Jarvie gave his mailing address as Humble Geochemical Services, Humble, TX.

For newbies:
  • 2000: a mini-Montana Bakken boom had just begun
  • 2007: the North Dakota Bakken boom began
The Abstract

The lead sentence in the abstract is remarkable. It begins:
The Williston Basin has often been used as a model for petroleum exploration and production in basins around the world ...
Other data points from the abstract:
  • carbonate source rocks in the Madison Group were overlooked for many years
  • Jarvie came up with conclusions based on geochemical analysis of dead oils from 16 producing horizons (remember: Lynn Helms suggested 17 oil-producing horizons)
  • the oils from these 16 horizons can be distinctly typed and correlated
His analysis would further elucidate the dominant Madison Group petroleum system in the Williston Basin, while also elucidating secondary petroleum systems including the Duperow, Red River, and Bakken-Lodgepole systems as well as other minor systems
  • Madison Group:
    • carbonate source rocks
    • enriched in 6-carbon ring light hydrocarbons, toluene and methylcyclohexane
    • while this 6-ring preference is generally thought to be indicative of terrestrially sourced oils, these oils are definitively derived from carbonate or marly shale source rocks
  • Bakken oils:
    • enriched in 5-carbon ring light hydrocarbons such as the alkylated cyclopentanes, which appears characteristic of a clay-rich, marine shale source
  • Red River oils:
    • enriched in normal paraffins and exhibit characteristic Ordovician-sources (G. prisca) oil fingerprints
  • other unique petroleum systems:
    • Duperow
    • Winnipegosis
    • Deadwood
    • the single Spearfish oil groups with Madison oils
    • Nisku oils are principally grouped with Bakken oils  
    • Interlake oils are principally grouped with Red River oils

The Williston Basin: an intracratonic, sag type Paleozoic basin, located on the western shelf of the North American Craton
    From Dr Abbas Mansour on sedimentary basins: The Williston basin is the classic example of an intracratonic basin. It contains some three kilometres of rocks of all periods from Cambrian to Tertiary, with notable gaps only in the Permian and Triassic. Sedimentation spanned a range of environments including fluvial and marine sands, reefal carbonates, evaporites and subwave- base pelagic muds. Deep-sea, turbidite and deltaic fades, igneous activity and shallow syndepositional faulting are all absent.
Prescient comment: "the impact of a new play can be dramatic"

Bakken-sourced Lodgepole oils had one year production rates accounting for 10% of the production totals in 1996 alone; this play was described by Lever and Anderson (1984) about 10 years prior to the major Lodgepole discovery in Stark County, ND

Lodgepole oils had one year production rates accounting for 10% of the production totals in 1996 alone 
Madison Group reservoirs account for 61% (750 million bbls of oil) of North Dakota's Williston Basin historical oil production (remember, this paper was published back in 2000)

Little attention has been given the source of Duperow oils even though Duperow reservoirs are the second highest producing horizon, exceeding Red River Foundation by about a percentage point

Combined Madison Group, Duperow, and Red River reservoirs account for over 80% of North Dakota's oil productioon

Bakken reservoirs account for 3.2% of production (remember, this paper was published back in 2000)

Oil typing and petroleum systems analysis in the Williston Basin were first published by Williams (1974) and Dow (1974) who detailed 3 petroleum systems as the Tyler, Bakken-Madison, and Winnipeg-Red Riverusing sterane biomarkers Grantham and Wakefield (1988) suggested that an effective source rock was present in the Mission Canyon Formation

Osadetz (1992) suggested and confirmed (1995) a Lodgepole source for Madison oils 

Price and LeFever (1995) described a "dysfunctionalism" in the hypothesized Bakken-Madison petroleum system based on quite different saturate and aromatic gas chromatographic data between the Bakken and Madison Group oils 
  • using C7 light hydrocarbon data, Madison, Bakken, and Red River oils were typed and characterized as separate oil families (Jarvie, 1997, Obermajer, 1999)
  • further correlation of an organic-rich Mission Canyon carbonate source source to various Madison oils was achieved using light hydrocarbons and biomarkers (Jarvie and Walker, 1997)  
  • they also demonstrated the presence of organic-rich intervals throughout the Madison Group including 3 organic-rich Mission Canyon horizons (up to 14% TOC) in the Denielson #1 well in Sheridan County, MT 
  • on the other hand, based on same criteria, they correlated the Lodgepole mound oil in the Conoco Kuntz well in Stark County, ND, to the underlying Bakken Formation, although organic rich False Bakken rocks have nearly identical fingerprints 
  • while Osadetz (1992) suggest a Lodgepole source as opposed to Mission Canyon source (Jarvie and Walker, 1997) for Madison Group oils, there is, in part, some discrepancy over nomenclature
    • for example, in Osadetz and Snowdon (1995), the Tilston Member is shown to be in the Lodgepole Formation, wherease in the US, the Tilston Member is placed in the lower Mission Canyon Formation (multiple studies, 1966, 1987)
  • in addition, other intervals in the Mission Canyon Formation have high source potential such as the Richey Shale and other markers
The Madison



Samples -- see linked source
Results -- see linked source

Prospective Williston Source Rocks
    Madison Group oils: the thickness of these prospective source units range from 50 ft thick on the fringe of the basin to 200 - 300 ft thick in the central part of the Williston Basa detailed study of Madison sources in the central part of the Williston Basin has not yet been completed
Quantitative Gas Chromatographic Fingerprints, Yields, and Ratios
  • paper describes the Ordovician oil set 
  • the Madison Group oils have very low pristane-to-phytane ratios; whereas typical Bakken oils have values greater than 1.00  
  • these data indicate several segregated families of oils following distinctive maturation trends
  • the Madison, Bakken, and Red River oils are inferred to be derived from different source rocks  
  • certain oils group with these 3 main groups including the Spearfish with Madison oils, the 4 Lodgepole and 4 Nisku oils with Bakken oils, and Interlake and Winnipeg oils with Red River oils  
  • the single Madison oil plotting with the Bakken-Lodgepole oils is the Northlustre Field oil in Valley County, MT and is likely a Bakken or mixed source oil 
  • there are large differences in sulfur contents among the Madison oils with oils in the northeastern part of North Dakota (Burke, Renville, Ward, and Bottineau counties) having the highest values 
    • in general, high sulfur oils have lower API gravities 
In summary:
  • Spearfish-Madison Group
  • Lodgepole-Bakken-Nisku Group
  • Red River Groups
  • Madison-Bakken mixes
  • Madison-Red River mixes
  • Bakken-Duperow mix oil
Long, long discussion of the various oils -- see linked source

Skip ahead to seals


Interesting, interesting, interesting:
The lack of correlation of Madison oils with Bakken oils except in certain highly faulted locales demonstrates that seals are effective between the Bakken and Madison as well as other horizons.
But then this: wherever overpressuring occurs within the Bakken, it is effectively a pressure-sealed system
Benzing and Shook (1996) hypothesized that pressure seals form in the presence of interstitial gas and the Bakken has been shown to generate gas at low maturity.

In addition, an overpressured system has significantly increased storage capacity (Holm, 1998) enabling such a system to retain more of its generated products, which will either be expelled in the presence of fractures or further cracked to light hydrocarbons 

1. Madison oils are distinct from Bakken oils indicative of different sources. This is based on 6-ring preference in the C7 hydrocarbons shown by Madison oils which is evident in Madison source rocks as well as biomarker data, the latter of which demonstrates that Madison Group oils are derived from carbonate or marly shale source rocks

2. Mixing of Madison and Bakken oils does not appear to be extensive in the US Williston Basin (unlike int he Canadian Williston Basin where there is a continuum suggesting high input of Bakken oil into Madison reservoirs

3. A single Spearfish oil from McHenry County, ND, correlates with Madison Group oils

4.  Lodgepole mound, Bakken, and most of the Nisku oils studied are Bakken-sourced oils with the Lodgepole oils being lower maturity oils than typical Bakken-produced oils

5. Some Madison Group oils in this study are mixed Bakken-Madison sourced oils. These oils are form E. Poplar (Roosevelt County, MT) and McGregor Field (Williams County, ND). The McGregor oil may have some Duperwon input in lieu of, or in addition to, Madison input

6. Duperow and Winnipegois oils are different from each other and other oils, but show considerable variabilty perhaps due to mixing or commingling of production; it is likely that there are separate sources for these oils

7. Red River oils are rich in paraffins

8. see linked source

9. see linked source

10. A single Tyler oil is likely derived from a marly shale source within the Tyler or Heath formations; these oils have been shown to be quite variable, however

Note: marly shale --  Marl or marlstone is a calcium carbonate or lime-rich mud or mudstone which contains variable amounts of clays and silt. The dominant carbonate mineral in most marls is calcite, but other carbonate minerals such as aragonite, dolomite, and siderite may be present.

Quiet Sunday Morning -- Except In Saudi Arabia, I Suppose -- Waiting For NASCAR Tonight -- Texas Motor Speedway -- November 5, 2017 -- Another NLF-Free Sunday

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553767190183

Brent: about $62, I suppose. Haven't checked last 72 hours but assuming $6-spread. OPEC is already thinking about $70-oil. It helps now that one of OPEC's biggest producers, Venezuela, is complying with new quotas. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's national budget has decreased slightly with the arrest and detention of 100's of princes. Assuming average monthly "pension" of $100,000 x 100 = $10 million / month = $120 million / year.

Labor force: Last month, 78.8 percent of adults aged 25 through 54 had jobs. That figure has risen 1.5 percentage points in the past two years. Yet it topped 81 percent in 2000, the last time unemployment was this low. Many potential applicants can't pass drug tests while others can live off government benefits.

Even U-6 unemployment rate is better than the U-3 unemployment rate just a few years ago.

Discussion has changed: no longer about the unemployment rate, now the discussion is bout slow wage growth.