Locator: 51162PRODUCTION.
Making America great -- the roughnecks.
Tag: US Russia Saudi Arabia record production
Link here. It's not so much that the USA has the lead but look at how big that lead is -- greater than 40% more than Russia or Saudi Arabia. Forty percent is not trivial. And with regard to Russia, the gap will likely widen.
Locator: 49505OIL.
From May 30, 2025, link here.
Production:
Locator: 48729PRODUCTION.
Production:
Locator: 48422OILPRODUCTION.
From visualizingenergy.org, today. This chart is from Boston University.
AI:
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A Shortage As Soon As 2012
DOD: Joint Operating Command
October 27, 2011
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
This was back when DOD was paying $126 / gallon for algae-produced aviation fuel.
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Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:
This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot
below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to
follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping
below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it
again.
Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.
Locator: 48408PEAKOIL.
US crude oil field production.
Since August, 2022, not one month less than 12 million bopd.
One year later, August 2023, hit 13 million bopd and never dropped below that 13-handle except for one month -- January, 2024.
Locator: 48114B.
A central plank of former President Donald Trump’s election campaign is that he’ll restore America’s “drill baby drill” energy policy. But new data makes it clear that the U.S. is already drilling for oil and natural gas at a record clip, and is on pace to become even more energy-dominant next year.
The country is widening its lead in oil and gas production, steadily taking market share from the old giants—Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil, and Qatar in natural gas.
Over the next year, the U.S. is on pace to keep growing production, putting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies like Russia, in a difficult position. If those countries add more production, it’s likely to cause oil prices to fall, because oil demand growth isn’t keeping pace.
The International Energy Agency said in a report released on Thursday that U.S. production growth is the largest factor keeping oil supplies on the upswing this year. The country is expected to add 740,000 barrels of oil a day to the market this year, accounting for the bulk of the world’s net production growth.
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Musical Interlude
This song / video is so "important" on so many levels.
Locator: 46811OIL.
US Oil:
Link here. One of my favorite graphs. It's been a long time since we've seen this graph updated by the EIA. I wonder if folks see in this chart what I'm seeing?
Locator: 44998REFINERS.
We're gonna hit another record this year! Take this to the bank!
HOUSTON (Reuters) -
U.S. crude oil refining capacity has reversed two years of declines and climbed by more than 100,000 barrels, to 18.1 million barrels per day. This year’s 18.1 million bpd capacity remains below the 18.98 million bpd peak in 2019.
During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, processing capacity to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel fell 5.4% ...
..... prices surged, Biden demanded prices come down and refiners responded by increasing capacity ...
Increases reflect capacity expansions at Marathon Petroleum and Citgo Petroleum.
The total does not include a 250,000 bpd increase that came after the cutoff date at Exxon Mobil’s Beaumont, Texas refinery in March of this year. The Beaumont expansion, the largest addition to a U.S. refinery in more than a decade, pushed the total to about 18.3 million bpd, still shy of the 2019 peak.
Marathon Petroleum Corp remains the nation’s largest refiner, with its Garyville, Louisiana, refinery now the nation’s third largest with 596,000 bpd capacity.
Marathon’s 2.9 million-bpd crude oil refining capacity represents 16% of the nation’s total.
Valero Energy Corp remains the second-largest U.S. refiner by volume with its 2.1 million bpd capacity equal to 12% of the U.S. total.
Motiva Enterprises, which operates the 626,000-bpd Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, operates the single largest refinery by capacity in the U.S. with Exxon’s Beaumont plant just behind it. Motiva is the U.S. refining arm of Saudi Aramco.
Citgo Petroleum Corp’s Lake Charles, Louisiana refinery grew by 37,000-bpd to 455,000-bpd.
The increase comes as cars and trucks are switching to renewable fuels and rechargable batteries instead of fossil fuels to reduce rising global temperatures from climate change.
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Christopher Nolan Filmography
The films:
Easy: to convert "quads" to boe.
In the very, very small print at the EIA link below:
More petroleum and natural gas was produced in the United States than in any other country during 2020 (a trend that began in 20214), despite year-on-year declines from the record-high production in 2019.
Timeline:
OPEC has estimated that during the 3Q19, all oil consuming regions of the globe will be using 100.63 million barrels of oil per day, ...
meanwhile, OPEC and the rest of the world's oil producers were still only producing 99.24 million barrels per day during August, which means that there was a shortfall of around 1,450,000 barrels per day in global oil production...
... in addition, the 1,980,000 barrel per day shortfall that we had previously figured for July based on last month's figures would now be revised to a deficit of 2,220,000 barrels per day in July, 2019....
....hence, for the 2nd quarter as a whole, even after those downward revision to demand, the world's oil producers were producing 767,000 barrels per day less than what was needed...Global oil demand / supply deficit, in bullet-form:
Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:It will be interesting to see how the recent geopolitical events in Saudi Arabia will affect these projections.
One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031.
The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year.
The latest Wood Mackenzie "Global Gas Markets long-term Outlook 2018: LNG Supply" authored by Giles Farrer, expects that capital spending on LNG plants and upstream infrastructure will total more than $200 billion from 2019 to 2025, to be shared by Canada, Mozambique, Qatar and the U.S., which is scheduled to see a flood of shale gas development. Industry experts maintain that rising world demand for LNG will require the sanctioning of around 60 million tonnes of new gasification facilities by 2020 and a further 100-plus million tonnes between 2020 and 2025 to ensure that markets in such countries as China, India and Pakistan are adequately supplied. Wood Mackenzie global LNG supply research director Giles Farrer said, “The LNG boom is back”.What's that about Mozambique, of which I always forget:
In Southern Africa, Exxon is involved with Eni to develop an $11.2-billion LNG export facility to capitalize on Mozambique’s Rovuma basin which is estimated to contain a massive 85 trillion cubic feet of gas.From the 2019 BP statistical review:
For some time, U.S. motor fuel exports to Mexico had been increasing at a healthy pace, reliably filling the void created by a series of production setbacks at Pemex’s refineries south of the border.
From 2014 to 2018, U.S. gasoline exports to Mexico soared by more than 160%, from an average of 197 Mb/d five years ago to 517 Mb/d last year. Diesel exports rose by nearly 130%, to 279 Mb/d, over the same period. But that export-growth momentum has since sagged — in fact, export volumes for both gasoline and diesel actually declined in the first few months of 2019, primarily due to logistical challenges within Mexico.
Also, Mexico’s new president has proposed ambitious plans to boost state-owned Pemex’s refining capacity, possibly posing a longer-term threat to U.S. exporters. So, is the boom in refined-product exports to Mexico over? Today, we examine what’s behind the downshift, and what the Mexican government’s effort to reinvigorate Pemex’s existing refineries — and build an entirely new one — may mean for U.S. gasoline and diesel exports in the 2020s.The stories coming out of Mexico will be a lot of white noise, as they say. The big story is that Mexico is clearly headed down the same road as Venezuela. Whether they reverse course or not is the bigger story.
Large oil and gas companies are commanding a greater role in high-impact exploration, but a lack of depth in the quality of global drilling opportunities diminished their performance in 2018, Westwood Global Energy Group reported Friday.
According to Westwood, a “twin track strategy” driving the industry comprises:
Also, Westwood noted that companies are moving away from sub-Saharan Africa and other onshore frontier drilling opportunities that can take considerable time – in some cases upward of 16 years – to commercialize.
- Increasing short-cycle exploration over the period in mature basins with existing infrastructure [unconventional in Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford?]
- Continuing to hunt for new petroleum provinces, particularly in deep water.
Challenges above-ground include lack of infrastructure and political/regulatory hurdles, the consultancy added.
Other report findings include:Takeaways:
- Compared to the previous year, exploration drilling in 2018 was up nearly 30 percent but yielded poorer performance with fewer big discoveries and a lower commercial success rate.
- From 2014 to 2018, high-impact drilling discovered volumes were down 50 percent overall against results from the preceding five-year period.
- High-impact drilling should increase 20 percent in 2019 to approximately 80 wells, with more wells planned in maturing and mature plays such as North West Europe and Mexico.
- More than 50 percent of high-impact wells for 2018 and more than 70 percent for 2019 involve supermajors; in contrast, the supermajor participation rate for 2015 was 34 percent.
For example, a Bakken project may have a breakeven in the $50 per barrel range, versus a large discovered Gulf of Mexico field with a breakeven around $15 per barrel. In this instance, a 20% change in the volume of the GOM field may result in a 30% change in NPV, but a 20% change in well EUR in the Bakken will swing the NPV plus or minus 110%.This is why I find the "halo-effect" or the "parent-well-uplift" phenomenon so interesting: "... a 20% change in well EUR in the Bakken will swing the NPV plus or minus 110%."
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.Note: that was back in 2011.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s.
“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations on energy trends. “By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States.”The article is archived.
