Japan Is Building Several Huge Semiconductor Fabs -- Pay Attention To Micron -- A Sleeper -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49576MICRON. 
Locator: 49576JAPAN. 

Link here. 

Japan is building several huge semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs) as part of a national strategy to revive its chip industry. This includes Micron Technology's planned $9.6 billion AI memory chip plant in Hiroshima, the government-backed Rapidus startup's advanced fab in Hokkaido, and a second plant from TSMC in Kumamoto. These projects leverage substantial government funding to attract foreign investment and build a new ecosystem for advanced chip production.

Key projects:

• Micron Technology: The U.S. chipmaker plans to invest $9.6 billion in a new plant in Hiroshima to produce advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for AI applications, with construction starting in May 2026 and shipments beginning around 2028. Japan's government will provide up to ¥500 billion ($3.2 billion) in subsidies for the project.
• Rapidus: This Japanese startup, backed by the government and major corporations like Toyota and Sony, is building a state-of-the-art 2nm chip foundry in Chitose, Hokkaido. The government has invested $12 billion in the company to build this cutting-edge facility, which partners with IBM.
• TSMC: The Taiwanese company, which has already opened its first plant in Kumamoto, plans a second facility there with construction starting soon and aiming for operation by late 2027. Japan's government will provide significant funding for this second plant as well.

The cost for TSMC's second facility in Japan is estimated at approximately $13.9 billion and will be operational by the end of 2027. The Japanese government is supporting the project with subsidies of around ¥7.8 billion (about $7.8 billion), and the total investment for both TSMC Japan facilities is expected to exceed $20 billion. 

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Micron 

See this link from the other day on the blog.

Now this link from TipRanks. 

Micron Technology stock posted another comfortable gain, capping a stellar year that saw its shares jump 174% through Wednesday’s close. This huge momentum is driven by a massive surge in demand for memory hardware, and recent earnings reports from major PC makers Dell Technologies DELL and HP Inc. HPQ confirm that this demand, and the resulting price hikes, are real.

On Friday, Micron was the second-best performer in the S&P 500, with shares climbing 2.9%. This positive sentiment comes directly from the market recognizing that Micron, as a key memory supplier, benefits from the pricing power stemming from the AI and data center build-out. The company is poised to enjoy high margins and consistent revenue as long as the memory shortage persists.

**********************************DisclaimerBrief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.

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Of the Major Eight (?) -- 
Micron Is Turning Out To Be The Most Interesting / Surprising

Go over to x and search for Micron, or use this link.  

Link here. Currently trading at $235. Price target raised to $340.

 
Link here.

Does Apple make its own memory chips?

AI prompt: the teardown for Apple's iPhone 15 shows the following from the "Memory Board": Cirrus Logic; Kioxia, Texas Instruments, and NXP. No mention of Samsung or TSMC. Earlier note suggested Apple buys memory chips from Samsung / TSMC. Are those the fabs; the others (Cirrus, Kioxia, TI, NXP), the designers?

The teardown:

Google search reply: 

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iPhone 17 Teardown

Many, many links. Easy to find.

Here's one: MacRumors.  

The ‌iPhone Air‌ logic board includes the C1X 5G modem, the N1 networking chip, and the A19 Pro, all of which Apple designed. The ‌iPhone Air‌ is the first ‌iPhone‌ to have so many custom-designed Apple chips. 

The other iPhone 17 models also have the A19 and the N1, but the ‌iPhone Air‌ also gets the C1X instead of a Qualcomm modem.

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Movie Night

Watched The Third Man twice tonight. Saw things I missed before. What an absolutely incredible movie. Said to be the best British movie ever. Black and white, released in 1949 / 1950; still holds up. Amazing.

Genesis Mission -- First Mention -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49575GM. 

A new tab at the top of the blog has been created: GM -- Genesis Mission. 

A lot of pearls. Including the new location for the largest cryptocurrency "base" in the world. One might find that interesting. 

The Stressed Consumer -- The Numbers Are Coming In -- Records Being Set -- $1 Trillion Spent First Time Ever -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49574ECONOMY. 

Link here. 

The K economy:

• the rich are richer
• the rich, in fact, are much richer
• the rich feel richer
• the rich are spending money
• at the end of the day -- that's where the "disposable" money is.

All CNBC talked about the past two weeks:

• inflation is so high;
• the consumer is so stressed;
• tariffs are making things too expensive;
• consumer confidence is way down.

It became quite tedious.

Focus on Dividends -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49573DIV. 

Companies paying dividends in December, 2025. Link here.  

Selected companies from the link above. None of this has been proof-read, fact-checked.

Ticker	Month	Date	Year	Amount
COP	12	1	2025	$0.84
ENB	12	1	2025	$0.94
PSX	12	1	2025	$1.20
CMI	12	4	2025	$2.00
XOM	12	10	2025	$1.03
CVX	12	10	2025	$1.71
MPC	12	10	2025	$1.00
MSFT	12	11	2025	$0.91
CNP	3	12	2026	$0.23
AMGN	12	12	2025	$2.38
GLW	12	12	2025	$0.28
MCD	12	15	2025	$1.86
CSX	12	15	2025	$0.13
QCOM	12	18	2025	$0.89
Nvidia	12	26	2025	$0.01
WMB	12	29	2025	$0.50
AVGO	12	30	2025	$0.59
UNP	12	30	2025	$1.38
DVN	12	30	2025	$0.24

Most Surprising: Micron -- Not Surprising: Global Warming -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49572MU. 

Tag: AI tech chips LLM memory

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Climate Change -- Global Warming

Link here. 

US Crude Oil Production -- 50% Increase In The Past Decade -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49571OIL. 

US field production, crude oil, link here: 

Note: [(13,844 - 9,070) / 9,070] = 52.64% increase in US field crude oil production since 2014, eleven years ago, pretty much uninterrupted by the Covid-19 shutdown.

A Closer Look At That BRK AAPL - GOOGL Investment -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49570BRKGOOG. 

All numbers rounded, estimated, dynamic and subject to discussion: 

3Q25:

BRK sold 42 million shares AAPL

• value: $3.2 billion
•  AAPL still largest holding in BRK equity portfolio; represents 20% of it total equity portfolio

BRK bought GOOG. Link here. 

• 17.8 million shares of GOOGL
• priced at about $200 / share
• bottom line: ~ $4 billion 

Market cap: $1.0 trillion 

• $4 billion / $1.0 trillion = 0.4%
• at end of 3Q25: 238.2 million shares of AAPL
• at $275/share = $65 billion
• $65 billion / $1.0 trillion = 6.5% 
•  $65 billion / $275 billion = 25% (in round numbers)

The most interesting data point: 

• equity portfolio: $275 billion
• wholly owned subsidiaries (excludes equity portfolio): $325 billion
• market cap: > $1 trillion

Wholly owned subsidiaries: 

Since Berkshire Hathaway's wholly-owned subsidiaries are not publicly traded, their market value is not explicitly stated and must be estimated through valuation methods

. Some analysts have used a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple on the operating earnings to arrive at an estimated value. For example, one analysis from February 2024 suggested a value of $320 billion for the operating companies by applying a P/E ratio of 15 to the operating after-tax earnings of $21.3 billion.

The rule that required companies to evaluate their worth at current value, rather than solely on historical costs or future projections, is generally known as

"mark-to-market" (MTM) accounting or "fair value" accounting.

BRK's cash position, 3Q24 vs 3Q25:

• Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) cash and short-term investments
• increased significantly from $325.2 billion in 3Q 2024 to a record $381.7 billion in 3Q 2025. 
• [($382 - $325)/$325] = 17.5%
• best interest rate most folks might expect this past year: 6%

Suggests that  ---

AI prompt: 

BRK's cash position 3Q24 vs 3Q25Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) cash and short-term investments increased significantly from $325.2 billion in 3Q 2024 to a record $381.7 billion in 3Q 2025. That represents a 17.5% increase in casy y/y. Best interest rate on cash was in the past year might have been somewhat less than 6% which suggests that BRK continues to raise casy a) through dividends; and, b) selling more shares in the equity portfolio. 

AI reply (Google search):  

 

What might make the BRK money managers look like geniuses? If the US and Venezuela get into a shooting war. Almost nothing else on the (six-month) horizon.

Right now, with regard to Venezeula, the US has simply established a "Cuban-like embargo" which has been in place for decades.  

With regard to taking out boats departing from Venezuela, Bush, Obama and Biden did the "same thing." Exhibit A: Osama bin Laden. Exhibit B: multiple terrorists at all levels in the Mideast. 

Sold Out -- Standing Room Only -- Largest Stadium In The US -- Third Largest In The World -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49569BOWLFOOTBALL. 

Ohio State at Michigan.

#1 at #15.

 

PSA For New Parents -- Dyslexia -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49568PSA.

Tag: dyslexia 

AI prompt (for ChatGPT): 

Okay, switching to something completely different. It is entirely normal for toddlers / young children learning to read, to go through a stage of dyslexia in which letters are mixed up. When they are asked to write a word, they write the correct letters but not in correct order. However, those very same kids, at that very same age, and copy a drawing of a car or a helicopter in the exact way the original drawing is made. This suggests that "eyes-to-reading" is carried on in a different way and a different area of the brain compared to the "eyes-to-drawing" phenomenon. One wonders if when asking a dyslexic child to "DRAW" the word "cat" would end up with a better result than asking the child to "WRITE" the word "cat." Thoughts?

The reply: 

There's much more, but this is a great start. 

Our older daughter with five-year-old twins provided additional insight regarding this whole topic. With the twins, one has dyslexia worse than the other. When she asks that twin to "draw" the word exactly as he sees it, his "drawing" of CAT is absolutely perfect -- just like his drawing of a helicopter. But when she asks him to "write" the word CAT it generally comes out as TCA. Absolutely fascinating. This whole subject "intersects" with AI and LLM training / learning.  

 

If one wants to pursue this, the next obvious AI prompt:

Some time ago, you and I were discussing toddlers' ability to draw pictures relatively correctly at an early age but putting letters in the correct order when learning to read was more of a challenge (dyslexia). This was related to differing neural pathways / networks for each process. My hunch is that those involved in AI research and LLM training are learning a lot about dyslexia or have a lot to offer neuro-scientists studying dyslexia. Thoughts?

 Again, for these kinds of queries, I only use ChatGPT. 

 

Holiday Suggestions: Apple -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49567FLORIDA.

These prices, I'm sure, will never go back to Apple's listed price, so there's no "Black Friday" deadlines or anxiety. It's unlikely the prices will go down any further before early next year. I think the "M4" could be one of the best-selling Apple computers ever. If you are a professional, taking this to work, get the "Midnight." "Sky Blue" would also be incredible. 

From The Verge. Link here. I got this one for this price (the new low price) for my wife. She cannot believe how fast it is. Best computer she has ever had, she says.

Also, from The Verge. Link here. A no-brainer: put one on the collar of your cat, dog, and in the shoe of your toddler, when you take the toddler to the mall or other public, crowded outing. Unless your car has some other such locating device, throw an Air Tag in the trunk. Apple is now giving them away for $15 or thereabouts. Great "stocking stuffer" for Christmas. Elderly family member with Alzheimer's? The list goes on and on. Every piece of baggage when traveling. Airlines are now incorporating Apple's Air Tag app into their proprietary app. Hide one in the Michael Kors purse you get your girlfriend.  

Florida Economy Is Surging -- November 29, 2025

Locator: 49567FLORIDA. 

Under Mamdani, this trend should accelerate.