Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Get On The Mar-A-Lago Train Or Get Tied To The Track -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48384TRUMP.

Get on the Mar-a-Lago train or get tied to the track. 

Breaking: Mark Zuckerbert's Meta has donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund.

I don't know how this works, but my hunch is that these streaming cable news shows disappear after a day or two, which if accurate is sad. 

This is one of the better ones.

Ratings, link here

Good, bad, or indifferent, we're going to see some incredible numbers when it comes to viewers -- on any network, or any cable news outlet, or any celebrity show. I think Vanity Fair is going to have an incredible year. 

On the other hand, magazines like The New Yorker and/or The Atlantic may have a tough couple of years. After a while, even those who like good writing, like me, tire of all the nattering nabobs of negativity.

*****************************
A Musical Interlude

This one has a particular importance for me. The line, "I stopped into a church I passed along the way, when I got down on my knees and I began [chorus: "pretend"] to pray." 

Twenty years ago (?) I was on temporary duty with the USAF to a remote overseas air base. I often went for long (very long) walks many nights during the winter. I would always pass a small village church. I carried a portable compact disc player -- a Sony Walkman -- and would play an eclectic mix of 60s rock and roll / folk music. I would play the early, early Hank Williams songs over and over and over. That's where I came to really, really enjoy Arvo Pärt and Te Deum. Today, while driving, I only listen to classical musical stations. I prefer evensong, church music, while driving.

In that YouTube loop, perhaps the most attractive woman ever paired with Jerry Lewis

Dion, Runaround Sue, how can one be so happy singing a song with this message. LOL. 

Max Weinberg, later, of the E Street Band and Mel Taylor. The Ventures, Wipeout. Whoever went along with this / suggested it -- pure genius.

And then, from there, Yellow River. This is where I start when I need to ward off depression. 

Time to write a letter to an old Air Force buddy. After thirty years and a day in the USAF and hundreds (thousands) of memories, I only stay in contact with one veteran, an almost exact contemporary.

Apple Vision Pro Named 2024 "Innovation Of The Year" -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48383APPLE.

Link here

Apple And Broadcom -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48382APPLE.

Link here.

Time's Person Of The Year? December 11, 2024

Locator: 48381TRUMP.

BMOC: Elon Musk -- WTI Settles Above $70 -- Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Locator: 48380B.

Market today -- Nasdaq over 20,000 for the first time ever! Led by tech, of course. Nasdaq closes 34 points over 20,000 today.

AAPL surged today in early trading and then dropped back by the end of the day to finish lower for the first time in 14 (?) days.

Tesla: continuing its ferocious run. Up another 25 points today. Is Trump's net worth headed toward $500 billion?

Alphabet, Tesla reach fresh highs; join Amazon and Meta; push Nasdaq over 20,000.

SpaceX: valuation surges to $350 billion as company buys back stock.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.37.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #41416 - #41419, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (3); Murex
  • Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Gooseneck (Divide)
  • Comments:
    • Murex has a permit for a MK-Naomi Lee well, NENE 6-162-100, 
      • to be sited 400 FNL and 780 FEL;
    • Hess has permits for three wells; two BL-Odegaard wells and one BL-Kvam well; SESE 8-156-95; 
      • the three wells to be sited 1056 FSL and the following distances FEL: 679, 646, and 613.

Two permits renewed

  • Slawson: Magnum 5-36-25H (#40395) and Magnum 6-36-25H (#40396)

One permit canceled:

  • Whiting, Olson 41-29H (#27665)

Cycling DFW -- Texas -- December 11, 2024

 Locator: 48379DFW.


 


 

The Eisen Hour -- AAPL (Apple) Surges To $250 -- December 11, 2025

Locator: 48378EISEN.

The Eisen hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Sara Eisen on CNBC.

Bonds: rally in bonds, means lower yields. The market is happy. Source: Eisen.

Holy mackerel! AAPL just surged through $249. Next stop? $250?  Early morning trading, AAPL has moved to within 20 cents of $250. Investors enthusiastic about Apple's rollout of AI. Apple has launched ChatGPT with Siri. The bigger story: with a market cap now of almost $3.8 trillion, AAPL is one its way to a market cap with a "4-handle.Whoo-hoo.  Later, link here:

Meanwhile, BRK-B:


The two stocks having the biggest drag on my portfolio? SRE and BRK-B. One pays a very nice dividend; the other does not.

Nasdaq's top gainer today: AVGO (Broadcom). Wow.


Factoid #1 -- food inflation: there are only two "foods" that really matter -- sugar and eggs. Okay. 

Factoid #2 -- obesity; the #1 health problem in the US.  Perhaps factoid #1 is not a problem. Maybe we need to see higher sugar prices and higher egg prices. Instead of a three-egg omelette, how about a two-egg omelette? You will immediately get a one-third cut in egg costs. LOL. 

Eggs: if avian flu / supply chain disruption is the #1 cause of egg inflation, what's the #2 cause? That's easy: cost of transportation, stocking. 

How are egg producers working this problem? Egg producers are moving to 18-egg cartons as the norm. Moving away from 12-egg cartons. Moving to 18-egg cartons.
US consumers, when grocery shopping, will gradually move from two-12-egg cartons to two 18-egg cartons.  Here in north Texas, it's becoming more and more difficult to find 12-egg cartons; 18-egg cartons are easily found. No change in price per egg (which means the profit margin increases for the grocer).

In other words, US consumers will gradually move from 24 eggs in their fridge to 36 eggs in their fridge as the norm, and soon, 54 eggs in their refrigerators.
454 eggs? Yes. Refrigerator shelving generally works with three-carton stacking. 3 x 18 = 54 (folks may want to fact-check my arithmetic).
Which also begs the question? Are US consumers eating more eggs? Eggs are the cheapest source of protein (much cheaper than chicken, beef, or fish).
Are eggs more expensive than dry cereal with milk?
And finally, if shoppers are moving from 12-egg cartons to 18-egg cartons, and from 24 eggs in their fridge to 36 eggs in their fridge, is the increased price of eggs also due to "hoarding"?
So, this is what I see with regard to increasing price of eggs:
    a) supply chain disruptions (avian flu)
    b) cost of labor -- stocking shelves
    c) "hoarding" by the US consumer
    d) possibly increased consumption by US consumers

X vs Bluesky: look at the incredibly small number of replies, retweets, and this is something the Bluesky community is massively interested in:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here.  

**********************
Always Good For A Laugh

Link here.
Link here.
Link here.
Link here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48377CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Trump: will continue to live in the brains / minds of the MSNBC anchors rent-free. It is so much fun catching the first two minutes of Morning Joe -- that's all I can take -- two minutes -- but it's always about Trump. Always. Joy Reid, even worse. Not on MSNBC but rather ABC: "The View." Whoopi tries to keep the panel optimistic, not to go crazy over Trump, but she isn't succeeding. 

Trump: there's going to be a lot of "ink" spilled on a gazillion stories re: Trump, but with regard to economy, Trump will focus on ITT: immigration, taxes, and tariffs. And that's it. Period. Dot. Immigration, taxes, and dots.  

Kroger, Albertsons deal dead. For the archives. I have no dog in that fight. This reminds me of the movie rental business many decades ago. The government knows best. LOL. Target, Walmart are opening bottles of champagne. Costco shares will benefit but business models completely different. Albertson's / Kroger competes with Walmart, Target, and with each other, not with Costco. Then this, Cramer brings up the cost of eggs. LOL. Probably just for entertainment; he knows the real problem with regard to the price of eggs and it's not due to the size of the US deficit / US debt.

Cramer: frustrated with housing inflation. We've talked about this before. Could easily be solved. 

Transformers: GE Vernova. Google transformers siemens ge vernova. Speaking of which, vernova. In Spanish, ver is the infinitive, "to see." Nova, of course, is "new."

Professional athletes: two things I don't understand -- it seems like there's a huge opportunity here. I'm surprised Phil Mickelson hasn't take advantage of this.

  • unprotected homes;
  • no chauffeurs.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Hump Day -- PPI Comes In Exactly As Expected -- Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48377CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.   

US equity market after CPI numbers released: major indices all turn green. Whoo-hoo! AAPL already moving higher. Whoo-hoo! CNBC panel:

  • Steve Liesman: re-acceleration in food and housing; otherwise, a good report. Used cars, up 2%.
  • inflation moving slightly higher, but no surprises; in line with expectations
  • inflation: an uncomfortable trend
  • but the Fed is still too restrictive; so can afford at least one more cut this month
  • at best, we might see two cuts in 2025 and the first one certainly won't be in January, 2025.
  • JPMorgan: blah, blah, blah -- says inflation is stabilizing at a higher rate than the Fed would like; feels Fed needs "to take back some of those cuts" in 2025
  • the phrase today: the path forward is "bumpy"
  • why are the markets rallying on higher inflation rates? 
  • me? yes, inflation is creeping upward but the alternative is much, much worse; right now, at this moment in time, this is "Goldilocks" data.
  • for those who bought a car in the last year and has a 72-month (fixed) loan (the new standard), two years from now the monthly payment is going to seem a whole cheaper than it feels right now.

CNBC:

Trump: there's going to be a lot of "ink" spilled on a gazillion stories re: Trump, but with regard to economy, Trump will focus on ITT: immigration, taxes, and tariffs. And that's it. Period. Dot. Immigration, taxes, and dots.  

Intel (INTC): BBB. Lowest credit rating the S&P Global Ratings hands out. The lowest rating. Borrowing costs will surge. Link here.

OH! Almost forgot -- first human to ever hit $400 billion for net worth -- Elon Musk. And, oh, by the way, perhaps the president-elect's closest economic advisor. And it wasn't "just barely" $400 billion -- it was $442 billion. If one looks at the background data re: Musk he is clearly on his way to $1 trillion.

GM throws in the towel, raises the white flag, cries "uncle": can't handle the cost, the competition, the controversy:

YESTERDAY: Economic data, final read for 3Q24 -- UNIT LABOR COSTS: way lower than expected! Whoo-hoo! 

But some now say it becomes crazy to consider any more cuts any time soon. JOB MARKET IS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATION. Unit Labor Costs -- 3Q24 -- 0.8% vs 1.4% expected. Theory: putting this all together -- the economy can run hotter without causing inflation. Despite those huge labor contracts announced this past year. So, Fed has room to maneuver -- another rate cut in December though common sense suggests no reason to do so. The one word not mentioned today: recession

Today: CPI. COMES IN EXACTLY AS ESTIMATED!

Tomorrow: PPI.

Intel (INTC): Beth.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

Hump Day -- Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48377CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

YESTERDAY: Economic data, final read for 3Q24 -- UNIT LABOR COSTS: way lower than expected! Whoo-hoo! 

But some now say it becomes crazy to consider any more cuts any time soon. JOB MARKET IS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATION. Unit Labor Costs -- 3Q24 -- 0.8% vs 1.4% expected. Theory: putting this all together -- the economy can run hotter without causing inflation. Despite those huge labor contracts announced this past year. So, Fed has room to maneuver -- another rate cut in December though common sense suggests no reason to do so. The one word not mentioned today: recession

Today: CPI. See comments here.

Tomorrow: PPI.

Amgen (AMGN): raises dividend.

Personal investing: an essay on Micron. Just the beginning of a very, very long essay -- well worth the read:


Personal investing: okay.

CEO of the year: link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • Longer version here

ICYMI -- Apple -- Best-Run Company -- Overtakes Microsoft -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48376APPLE.

Google: Apple best run.

GM -- Batteries -- Archives -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48375EVS.

For more background, see this post.

Southern Surge -- New York Times -- December 11, 2024

Locator: 48374SURGE.

Link here

The story here.


Again, note the source!


 

What happened, what changed?

Several factors caused the surge, starting with President Biden’s welcoming immigration policy during his first three years in office. Offended by Donald J. Trump’s harsh policies — including the separation of families at the border — Mr. Biden and other Democrats promised a different approach. “We’re a nation that says, ‘If you want to flee, and you’re fleeing oppression, you should come,’” Mr. Biden said during his 2020 presidential campaign.
After taking office, his administration loosened the rules on asylum and other immigration policies, making it easier for people to enter the United States. Some have received temporary legal status while their cases wend through backlogged immigration courts. Others have remained without legal permission.