Earnings This Week -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47092INV.

Link here. 

Sunday night, pre-market:

*********************
Whatever

Thomas Friedman, wiki. 

• criticized for both weak writing style and a gravitation towards voguish positions
• has won three Pulitzer prizes

Okay.

Something has changed. Either YouTube or my "account." Regardless, it's like 1000% better and it seemed to have happened overnight. I have no idea what happened. Can't explain it. All I know, I used to love YouTube. Now, I really, really love YouTube. Amazing.

That's in the background. In the foreground, an opened book. When it came out in 2005, it was a bestseller, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, Thomas L. Friedman.

Holy mackerel it's a great book. I picked up a hardback edition in pristine condition for $3.00 while visiting Portland last week.

It's a great companion book to Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller. 

In 2005 I was two years from retiring from the United States Air Force, and was soon to leave some wonderful, wonderful people behind and I was incredibly depressed. Not as depressed as I was in 1993, but it was severe. 

In 2005 I was reading voraciously but I had no interest in reading books like The World Is Flat. I'm glad I didn't. I would not have appreciated it in 2005, not as much as I appreciate it now.

Friedman was born in 1953; I was born in 1951. We are exact contemporaries. We have experienced the very same events, beginning with the Berlin Wall coming down in 1989. Netscape went public in 1995. 

Link here.

Restaurant Technology -- Why Restaurants Might Be Surviving -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47091ECONOMY.

Restaurants defy predictions of a recession. Link here.

Link here.

To some extent, there may be some "truth" in this article. I'm not convinced.

And then this:

Permian Producers -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47090B.

Link here. 

Link here.

****************
LNG Export Terminals

December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here. 

 LNG export terminal: another one to come on line in mid-2024. I still remember the reader some years ago who wrote to tell me the LNG export story was all hyped; nothing to it. Link here.

Link here.

Google Plaquemines on the blog for additional information.

TTE: previously posted. TTE getting closer to listing on NYSE. Link here.

Personal Inheritance -- Giving -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47089PERSONALINVESTING.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

This information is based on lessons learned during thirty-plus years of investing and saving for retirement. This information supplements, does not replace personal reading, research, and professional advice.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

This is meant for extended family members who:

• are not retired:
• report less than $250,00.01 annually in earned income to the IRS
• have limited investing experience

This information holds true for the extended family member who has a financial advisor (paid or otherwise).

Likewise, kids or no kids, it does not matter.

Purpose of this series:

• start the conversation
• work out the process of intergenerational wealth transfer
• set up investment, retirement, educational accounts
• begin transfer of funds to these accounts
• review the history of / the evolution of investments that occurred over the past 30 years
• "to know where you are going, one needs to know what you've been"

Starting early could give heirs several years of financial education before they have to handle their inheritance on their own.

****************************
When to Start The Process
Of Passing Wealth To Heirs

Binary:

• start transferring wealth as early as possible;
• transfer wealth after death

Pros and cons discussed with heirs.

The family elected to begin the process as early as possible.

• con: ultimate inheritance may be less, but not necessarily
• pro: heirs will have opportunity to learn about wealth management

Timing:

• for us, there was almost a "natural" age when to begin the process: the age at which RMDs were required by the IRS

**********************
The Process

Amount to be distributed. At a minimum:

• 30% of all RMDs set aside for taxes
• 70% of all RMDs distributed to adult children and to all grandchildren
• to adult children: max out IRAs, 401(k)s of adult children
• for all children, fund 529s to extent necessary to cover anticipated college expenses

Timing:

• begin the process as soon as RMDs are required; as soon as RMDs are taken
• assist adult children in establishing Schwab accounts if they have not yet done that
• through Schwab, fund heirs' retirement accounts and 529s

PSX -- Dividend History

Locator: 47088DIV.

COP: Dividend History

Locator: 47087DIV.

Personal Investing -- RMDs

Locator: 47086INV.

Link here.

BRK Vs Two Mutual Funds -- April 28, 20242

Locator: 47085INV.

Comparing BRK-B with two mutual funds: 1 year, 5 years, and max (though max doesn't go back very far):

• VTSAX: link here.
  
• TWCUX: link here.

At the links, type in BRK-B or any other ticker you want to compare with the mutual fund.

Personal Investing -- Still Working, Not Retired -- Looking At The Schwab Cartoon, Part 2

Locator: 47084INV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

This information is based on lessons learned during thirty-plus years of investing and saving for retirement. This information supplements, does not replace personal reading, research, and professional advice.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

This is meant for extended family members who:

• are not retired:
• report less than $250,00.01 annually in earned income to the IRS
• have limited investing experience

This information holds true for the extended family member who has a financial advisor (paid or otherwise).

Likewise, kids or no kids, it does not matter.

****************************
For Extended Family Members Who Are Still Working,
Not Retired

Goal: pay no taxes whatsoever on investments. My attitude: if you are still working and investing, you should be paying absolutely no taxes (capital gains / dividends) on your investments. If you are paying taxes on your investments and making no plans to stop that you are doing things all wrong.

If you max out your retirement accounts and 529s, it's time to start investing in real property but that's a topic for another day.

The Schwab cartoon:

 
Focus on sections A and C. 

Confirm with knowledgeable sources, the numbers change annually, but roughly:
    __ IRA contributions this year (2024): $7,000 per individual = $14,000 per couple
        __ Roth IRAs and not traditional IRAs, we can discuss reasons later
    __ 401(k) contribution: $23,000
    __ 529 contributions; two children; no max; set a goal for each year; as a starting point, I'll recommend $5,000 per child = $10,000
    __ total so far: $47,000 for sections A and C

Bottom line: don't even talk to me about putting "new" money into anything but sections A and C unless you have maxed out sections A and C.

Section B:

• put no new money in section B
  
• "buy and sell" within section B
• any new positions, do not check off the box "automatic reinvestment" 
• there's an argument for automatic reinvestment but generally not a good idea
• this made sense years ago when DRIPs were in fashion to avoid commissions
• there are no commissions any more in Schwab accounts

Section A: this is a biggie

• set up a new self-directed IRA / self-directed spousal IRA in section A
• if you "want" the excitement of trading, do it within a self-directed IRA
• any cash raised through a sale in section B, move that cash into new or existing IRAs in section A
• you can trade willy-nilly in your self-directed IRA and not face tax consequences; trading within section B will result in tax consequences
• you've already incurred a taxable event when you sell something in section B, so why not move it into your self-directly IRA and quit paying taxes on capital gains and dividends
  

Traditional IRA or Roth IRA:

• the only "good" thing that a traditional IRA provides that a Roth IRA does not: a very, very minor tax break
• the tax break makes you feel good
• in fact, the tax break the traditional IRA provides is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- compared to the tax advantages of the Roth IRA
• if you really, really want that tax break that a traditional IRA provides, invest only in a Roth IRA but calculate the taxes you would save by investing in a traditional IRA: I will pay you that amount of savings in cash when you file your taxes
• note: in 2033, RMDs required starting at age 75.  
• Roth IRAs: RMDs never required.
  

Investing Tip Of The Day? AVGO -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47083INV.

Link here.

Current market cap: $600 billion.

Analysts: the next member of the trillion-dollar club. 

From the linked article:

Semiconductor and technology company Broadcom has seen its stock gain ~122% over the past year, triggered by the AI boom. In comparison, AI powerhouse Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has seen its stock price gain 220%. This raises the question: can Broadcom emulate Nvidia’s success and potentially join the $1 trillion market cap club? The answer appears to be yes. Given its attractive AI product offerings, solid business fundamentals, and relatively low valuation, I will buy AVGO stock at its current price.

P/E: 50.One-year comparison with AMD? AVGO did better. AMD's P/E: 300. No typo. 300.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Inflation Watch -- Airlines, Tacos, Fast Food -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47082INFLATION.

DFW to Portland, OR:

• last year, 2023 -- $425.
• last week, April, 2024: $350
• coming up, June, 2024: $265.
  

***********************
Restaurants

1. It's getting very, very expensive to dine out. Period. Dot. 

But that doesn't mean you can't find bargains. #1 mistake: expensive drinks. Seniors (generally, "55+" ) get very, very good deals. Often the "kids eat for free" does not apply when the adult is a senior ordering from the "55+" menu but often (?) the wait staff will over look that, especially if one is a regular.

1a. Restaurants defy predictions of a recession. Link here.

2. Bargains: iHop -- generally speaking, kids under the age of 10 years, eat free, if one adult orders one entree. Drinks are not free. Beware. I assume if iHop is offering this deal, so are others. Recommendation: iHop on weekday afternoons: never on the weekends for breakfast.

3. McDonald's: I still find McDonald's an incredible bargain. 

At the Portland, Oregon, airport yesterday, a Big Mac combo with medium fries, $9.25, total, no tax. That was at the airport, with medium diet Coke. I no longer have a big appetite and that was way more than I needed. Next time: regular hamburger and small fries. I doubt this meal was much less expensive a year ago. Even if only $7.50 last year, a jump from $7.50 to $9.25 is inconsequential when that's your only mean while traveling that day. Stop at the bar, however, waiting for your flight, and one drink -- and who orders just one drink? -- would set you back about $10. That's where the real problem lies.

4. California: sticker shock. Link to WSJ. I might come back to this. From my perspective: a lot of whining. The $20-minimum wage is only fair. Remember: fast food employees are not tipped.

5. Is "taco" the next "pizza"? Link to Texas Monthly. This tells me sit-down restaurants are doing just fine, thank you. 

We have both Torchy's Tacos and Velvet Taco near where we live. We can walk to Torchy's. A five-minute drive to Velvet Taco. We've never been to Torchy's. Will go today to see what it's all about. Velvet Taco is our favorite. Our oldest granddaughter introduced us to Velvet Taco. Tacos went replace pizza for home delivery; they still haven't figured out home delivery for tacos. Someone will. Just a matter of time. But my hunch: pizza is home delivery; tacos are alternative to McDonald's, Wendy's, and Chick-Fil-A. Though adding "Chick-Fil-A" in that last sentence is probably a stretch.

Velvet Taco: founded in Dallas; home-based in Plano, just north of Dallas now.

Torchy's: founded in Austin.

6. Investing: I've removed MCD from my Big Cap "bucket." It was a binary decision. MCD vs CAT? I'm staying with CAT. No recommendation. See disclaimers.

BRK And The Kiplinger Report -- The 13F, 1Q24, Part 2 -- April 28, 202

Locator: 47081BRK. 

Barron's: BRK and Warren Buffett. 

For some 30,000 Berkshire shareholders expected to attend the meeting, the future will be the focus as Buffett fields questions for more than five hours in what could be his only public appearance of the year. Joining Buffett, 93, on the dais will be Vice Chairman Greg Abel, 61, likely tasked with the role of Buffett’s successor as CEO, and Vice Chairman Ajit Jain, 72, who runs the company’s insurance operations. Together they will answer questions small and large: Can the stock beat the S&P 500 index SPX 1.02% ? Why have share repurchases declined since 2021? Can the company’s new management prove anywhere as capable as Buffett? Should Berkshire break up?

The "Warren Buffett watch" is tracked here, tabbed at the top of the blog.  

Recent posts devoted to Buffett:

• February 25, The Letter.
• 13F, 1Q24, part 1.
• March 19, 2024, part 1.
• March 19, 2024, part 2.

Now, for "13F, part 2." 

I finally posted my Buffett update after several iterations. There are probably errors -- content errors and typographical errors. But at least I understand it now. If the Buffett story is important to you, go to the source. Ignore my posts. 

I'm not going to go through it all over but for the past six months or so, there have been a lot of stories on Buffett and Japan:

• why Buffett got excited about Japan; and,
• the huge investments Buffett made in Japan
• how Buffett made a "killing" on his Japanese trades
  

So, let's look at the 13F or the news reports when Buffett jumped in and bought "Japan." These were the holdings (and first mention?) of these Japanese companies, the 13F from September 30, 2023:
the narrative: 

Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo, which are as of June 12, 2023. Tokyo Stock Exchange prices are converted to U.S. dollars from Japanese yen. Mitsubishi shares are adjusted for a 3-for-1 stock split on January 1, 2024.

At that CNBC link, scroll down to see the portfolio, the company, and percent of the BRK portfolio:

• Itochu: 1.4%
• Marubeni: 0.6%
• Mitsubishi: 2.1%
• Mitsui: 1.6%
• Sumitomo: 0.7%.

From Forbes, February 15, 2024:

Because the 13F does not include international stocks, Berkshire Hathaway initially announced the acquisition of about 5% of five Japanese trading companies at the end of August 2020. These holdings are Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. Ltd., and Sumitomo Corp. Buffett revealed in April 2023 that Berkshire increased its stakes in these companies to 7.4%. Buffett indicated that these were intended to be long-term holdings, and Berkshire may still increase its stake to 9.9%.

If I did the math correctly, the previous "percents" add up to 6.4%. So, apparently the stakes have increased to 7.4%. This doesn't necessarily mean more buying, the stocks could have appreciated that much to affect the "percent of the portfolio."

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Locator: 47080B.

Clearing off the desktop. 

These will be the stories I will get to sometime during the day.

Back to Buffett. 

I posted my Buffett update, but it went through several iterations. There are probably errors -- content errors and typographical errors. But at least I understand it now. If the Buffett story is important to you, go to the source. Ignore my posts.

Readers: I have several comments to reply to, but they will have to wait. Sorry. It's in the contract.

Other stories in the queue, or "everything everywhere happening all at once."

• LNG export terminal: another one to come on line in mid-2024. I still remember the reader some years ago who wrote to tell me the LNG export story was all hyped; nothing to it. Link here.
  
• the Permian is getting a lot of attention. Again.
• TTE.
• Inflation, fast food, California.
• gasoline prices.
  
• Nashville is booming.
  

Earnings this next week.

Investing:

• RMDs

Hess BL-Iverson And CA-Anderson Smith Pads -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47079B.

The well:

• 39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	23082	76962
1-2024	30374	61332
12-2023	26427	47792
11-2023	50793	86252

The map: 

 The pads:

• the northern pad: the BL-Iverson wells in Beaver Lodge; all are producing except #36684, AB

• the southern pad: the CA-Anderson Smith wells; all are producing and all are huge wells;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47078B.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 272 for the year

• 40119, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen South 5-8-17 7H, Bear Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	0	176

Tuesday, May 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 271 for the year

• 37106, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH, Twin Valley, npd,

Monday, May 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 270 for the year

• 39348, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-3, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	13834	16214
1-2024	16651	20374
12-2023	18667	21990
11-2023	19772	25415

Sunday, May 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 269 for the year

• 40277, conf, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH, Twin Valley, npd,

Saturday, May 4, 2024: 5 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 268 for the year

• 39465, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-6, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	9293	13225
1-2024	9660	15367
12-2023	9511	11033
11-2023	14875	12814

Thursday, May 2, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year

• 40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H, Rocky Hill, npd,
• 39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	23082	76962
1-2024	30374	61332
12-2023	26427	47792
11-2023	50793	86252

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year

• 40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
• 39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H, Burg, npd,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year

• 40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H, Starbuck, npd,
• 40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
• 40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
• 39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H, Burg, npd,
• 39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	11203	14708
1-2024	11510	19709
12-2023	10296	10931
11-2023	12566	12570

• 39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	11999	15182
1-2024	11751	11696
12-2023	18502	24093
11-2023	25703	13448
10-2023	844	0

Monday, April 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 257 for the year

• 39524, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H, Burg, npd,
• 39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-LW-157-95-0214H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	12793	15937
1-2024	11505	10869
12-2023	9429	10459
11-2023	18422	18584
10-2023	1855	0

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year

• 39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H, Burg, npd,
• 37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH, Elidah, npd,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47077B.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 272 for the year
40119, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen South 5-8-17 7H,

Tuesday, May 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 271 for the year
37106, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH,

Monday, May 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 270 for the year
39348, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-3,

Sunday, May 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 269 for the year
40277, conf, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH,

Saturday, May 4, 2024: 5 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 268 for the year
39465, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-6,

Friday, May 3, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year
None.

Thursday, May 2, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year
40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H,
39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1,

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year
40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH,
39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year
40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H,
40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH,
40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH,
39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H,
39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, 
39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4,

Monday, April 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 257 for the year
39524, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H,
39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-LW-157-95-0214H-1,

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year
39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H,
37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH,

Saturday, April 27, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

The Amazing BR Cherry Pie Well In Haystack Butte -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47076B.

The well:

• 37634, drl/NC-->drl/A, BR, Cherry Pie 1R TFH ULW, Haystack Butte, no production data, t--; cum 342K 2/24; nice well:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	11537	11761	13550	35311	34550	524
BAKKEN	1-2024	26	11905	11850	13532	32914	30782	1894
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	16811	16889	16194	41092	39545	1249
BAKKEN	11-2023	21	12170	11907	12185	18006	17338	527
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	19608	19811	19479	38856	37451	1176
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	21015	21113	23467	42752	40256	2236
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	23147	23205	28429	43339	41139	1925
BAKKEN	7-2023	16	10292	9942	16587	19241	18175	913
BAKKEN	6-2023	21	16013	15999	11238	31980	30115	1664
BAKKEN	5-2023	15	9085	9376	4739	18238	17302	827
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	24748	24720	14332	44934	42538	2143
BAKKEN	3-2023	17	14184	13930	10568	26123	24253	1713
BAKKEN	2-2023	23	17819	18049	11602	32827	30718	1938
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	23831	23921	16319	41853	40420	1217
BAKKEN	12-2022	15	10224	10247	6653	17935	17314	529
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	21152	21145	21379	36871	34388	2155
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17643	17375	11497	32051	29266	2472
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	21950	21950	13355	39119	37069	1621
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	29148	29051	18613	51141	48421	2091
BAKKEN	7-2022	10	8932	8411	4562	13604	12846	561
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	72	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	26	26	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	4	219	219	5714	828	0	823