Wednesday, May 15, 2019

How Many Of You Are Aware Of All The Snow, Cold Weather, Winter Still Forecast For May In The US? -- May 15, 2019

I was completely unaware of all of this. Winter well into May in the United States this year, as well as other parts of the world apparently. At the linked site, scroll down. Obviously, it's a dynamic site and after May 15, 2019, there will be different stories. But this is where we stand now: winter continues in mid-May for the US.


US Crude Oil Exports -- May 15, 2019

See this note.

I opined at length on US crude oil exports. I suggested the long pole in the tent would be the export terminals.

A reader suggested export terminals would not be the problem. See the reader's comment at the linked post.

He's obviously correct. I was wrong.

From RBN Energy, May 2, 2019:
In terms of raw tonnage, the Port of Houston is by far the busiest in the United States. The 52-mile-long Houston Ship Channel (HSC) — running from just outside downtown Houston out to an area between Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula — is the artery that enables the heavy ship traffic, much of it tied to crude oil, LPG, petroleum products and other hydrocarbons. But in the same way that Houston’s Interstate 45 traffic backs up during the morning commute, the ship channel traffic, which normally runs at about 60% of peak levels, can be (and has been) subject to delays when there’s an accident, visibility problems, or a slow-moving double-wide taking up two lanes. With energy-related export activity on the rise, efforts are underway to address those issues. Today, we begin a series on the issues facing some Texas ports and the measures being taken to help alleviate them.
Any way you slice it, the Port of Houston serves as one of the most significant conduits in America. It supports 140 docks (with another six under construction) that are home to more than 300 berths. In 2018, HSC had nearly 19,000 ship movements, more than 10,000 of which were tankers. (Note that tankers may have multiple movements per visit to the HSC.) Of those 10,000-plus movements, there were 8,706 movements by Panamax-class tankers (capacity of 350-400 Mbbl), 1,270 by Aframax tankers (500-725 Mbbl), and 246 by Suezmax tankers (up to 1 MMbbl) — HSC can’t currently handle Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each of which can haul about 2 MMbbl, or more than 200,000 deadweight tons (DWT).

Huge Shout-Out To My Readers -- May 15, 2019

I am absolutely convinced I have the smartest readers in the world when it comes to the Bakken. My blog may not be very wide -- it's a very, very narrow subject -- the Bakken -- essentially four counties in western North Dakota -- but it's very, very deep. And the readers are paying attention. I'm impressed.

The other day I posted about the shortest post possible. I was somewhat embarrassed that it was so short, but I was pressed for time. More on that later.

Now, two days later, that short little post is the #1 trending post on the blog.

This tells me one thing: readers are really, really paying attention; and, they really, really understand the Bakken. I'm impressed.

This is a screenshot of the post from the sidebar of posts that are trending. Again, this was the #1 trending post.

New York Denies Pipeline -- May 15, 2019 -- Most Interesting Story Coming Out Of The Northeast This Year


May 16, 2019: this story will now be tracked at this post.

Original Post
Link here: story broke 37 minutes ago ....

My hunch: moratorium on new hook-ups for Westchester County, NYC, Long Island -- I give the regulators two months to sort this out. This is no longer about natural gas or the environment. It's about a) elitism; b) anarchy; c) no-growth [Occasional-Cortex can explain].

Huge thanks again to a reader for bringing this to my attention.

This may be the most interesting energy story coming out of the northeast this year.


This was the backstory, posted yesterday:
Deadline: tomorrow, May 15, 2019 -- a reader brought this to my attention -- one of many links here:

  • New England, NYC, Long Island
  • National Grid needs access to more natural gas if growth is to continue
  • access to more natural gas hinges on permits for pipelines
  • National Grid says it will put the moratorium on hookups back in place if the new pipeline permits are not approved
  • affects Westchester County, NYC, Long Island
  • directly from the article: the problem stems from three things: 
    • significant growth in natural-gas demand created by the current development boom,
    • increased demand from existing buildings converting to gas from dirtier energy sources such as heating oil, and 
    • more extreme heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days
  • no new pipeline has been approved since 2013
  • at the link, the writer proposes the equivalent of President Carter's solution: wear sweaters in the winter
Actually it sounds like -- according to the article -- even without any growth, the National Grid natural gas supply is already stretched to its limits during the winter.

My hunch: they will find a way to thread the needle.

Likely solution: "forbid" National Grid from any moratorium on hookups but approve no new pipeline permit, waiting to see what this next winter brings. Seems crazy but kicking the can down the road has worked since 2013. If nothing else, the "May 15th" deadline will be extended, as the"parties remain talking."

Note the third point made by a "global warming" proponent: part of the current problem is due to "more heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days."

Slawson's Periscope Federal Wells


September 25, 2021: production updated.

April 10, 2020: production updated.

October 24, 2019: new graphic and additional Periscope Federal wells noted below; production data updated;

Original Post

The graphics:

The wells:
  • Slawson has permits for six wells on a Periscope Federal pad in section 10-151-92, Big Bend oil field; #36468 - #36473, inclusive
  • 36468, IA/drl, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 12K 6/21;
  • 36469, drl/A  Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 37K 7/21;
  • 36470, drl/A  Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 27K 7/21;
  • 36471, drl/A  Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 37K 7/21;
  • 36472, drl/A  Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 34K 7/21;
  • 36473, drl/A  Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend, first production 6/21; t--; cum 23K 6/21; off line 7/21;
Existing Periscope Federal wells:
  • 36238, conf-->drl/NC-->900, Slawson, Periscope Federal1-10-11-12H, Big Bend, t2/21; cum 80K 7/21;
  • 31440, PNC, Slawson, Periscope Federal10-10-11-12TF2H, Big Bend,
  • 36471, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend, t--; cum 37K over 33 days
  • 36468, conf-->drl/NC--<drl/IA, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend,10K over thirteen days, then off line 7/21;
  • 36240, conf-->drl/NC--drl/A-->1,312, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH, Big Bend, t3/21; cum 82K 7/21;
  • 36472, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 34K 7/21;
  • 25843, PNC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-11-12TFHPNC, Big Bend,
  • 36469, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 37K 7/21;
  • 36470, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend, t--; cum 27K 7/21;
  • 36473, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 23K 7/21;
  • 31439, 754, Slawson, Periscope Federal 6-10-11-12TFH, Big Bend, t2/18; cum 411K 9/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line 8/20 for two months; nice production; back off line, 10/20; back on line 12/20; cum 489K 7/21;
  • 19155, huge jump in production, see below; not re-fracked; t7/12; cum 420K 9/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line for two months, 8/20; back off line 10/20; back on line 1/21; cum 452K 7/21;
  • 25844, 2,036, Slawson, Periscope Federal 7-10-11-12TFH, Big Bend, t3/18; cum 381K  9/20; offline 4/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line for two months, 8/20; back off line 10/20; back on line 1/21; cum 457K 7/21;
First Periscope Federal Well
  • 19155, 769, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1-10-11-12H, Van Hook, t7/12; cum 414K 2/20; production profile, area of interest --

Eleven New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; WTI Barely Moves -- May 15, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6559512783

Eleven new permits:
  • Operators: Slawson (6), WPX (3), Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Mandaree (McKenzie); Mandaree (Dunn); Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has permits for six wells on a Periscope Federal pad in section 10-151-92, Big Bend oil field
    • Whiting has permits for a two wells on a Hagey page in section 13-154-92 in Sanish oil field;
    • WPX has permits for two wells on a Skunk Creek pad in 23-149-93, Mandaree oil field
    • WPX has a single permit for a Mandaree Warrior well in section 14-149-94, Mandaree oil field
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35109, 956, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, Oakdale, t4/19; cum --; 
  • 29799, 218, Zavanna, George 19-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, t4/19; cum --;
  • 29800, 301, Zavanna, George 19-30 3TFHXW, Stockyard Creek, t4/19; cum --;
  • 35374, 1,818, Whiting, Knut Berg Trust, Pembroke, t4/19; cum --;

The Amazing Bakken -- May 15, 2019

Two-thousand, six hundred, sixty-five (2,665) wells are off-line and North Dakota:
  • sets an all-time natural gas production record
  • barely misses setting a new crude oil production record
  • probably set a new "boepd" production record
See this post.

Two-thousand, six hundred, sixty-five (2,665) wells will be about the number of new wells North Dakota will drill over the next three years.

March, 2019 Data -- North Dakota Sets New All-Time Natural Gas Production Record; Almost Sets All-Time Crude Oil Production Record; Total BOEPD Probably Set A New All-Time Record

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I often make simple errors in arithmetic. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Crude oil production in March, 2019: 1,390,138 bopd
  • February, 2019: 1,335,591
    • average daily increase, month-over-month: 54,547 bopd
    • month-over-month increase: an increase of 4.1%
  • all-time high was January, 2019: 1,403,808
    • delta (January/March): - 13,670 bopd
    • delta (January/March): - 0.97%
Natural gas production in March, 2019: March, 2019: 2,801,434 MCF/day
  • this is a new all-time high; = 466,827 boepd
  • 466,827 + 61,390,138 = 1,856,96 boepd (which is most likely a new all-time record high)
  • this beats the "boepd" production in January, 2019
  • February, 2019: 2,631,118 MCF/day 
    • average daily increase, month-over-month: 170,316 MCF/day (28,381 boepd)
    • month-over-increase: 6.4%
Producing wells:
  • March, 2019: 15,353 -- well below the all-time high of 15,409 in January, 2019
  • February, 2019: 15,154
  • April: 129
  • March: 133 
  • February: 109
Crude price, ND light sweet/ WTI (per barrel)
  • All-time high:  $136.29 / $145.29
  • today: $50.50 / $61.78
  • April: $52.50 / $63.58
  • March: $48.00 / $55.01
  • February: $46.30 / $55.01 
Rig count
  • Today: 65
  • April: 63
  • March: 66
  • February: 64 
  • DUCs: 968 (up 74)
  • inactive: 1,697 (up 30)
Gas capture (flaring):
  • statewide: 80% captured
  • FBIR Bakken: 70% captured (69% last month; 71% two months ago)
  • goal; 88%
February, 2019, data here.


March, 2019:
  • DUCs: 968, up 74 from last report
  • inactive: 1,697, up 30 from last report
  • total: 2,665 (up from 2,561 last week, about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
February, 2019:
  • DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report
  • inactive: 1,5667, up a whopping 150 from last report
  • total: 2,561 (up from 2,332 last week, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
EIA Dashboard: Bakken Region


Similar to Eagle Ford, except the Eagle Ford is much gassier; completely "swamps" the Permian

An Unexplained Jump In Production Of A Whiting Flatland Federal Well -- May 15, 2019

Note: always be careful with any of my postings. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I sometimes see things that don't exist in the Bakken. This is another example. There's always possible there's a typographical error at the source, or an explanation that I have  not found, but here's another example of a jump in production with no obvious explanation. The mom-and-pop mineral owners probably don't really care -- they just appreciate their royalty checks.  The jump in production (see below) was not a full 30-days.

See this Flatland Federal posting for background. FracFocus is "down" right now so I cannot check recent frack data, but there is no sundry form suggesting a recent frack at this well.

The well:
  • 27522, 4,207, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFHU, t101/14; cum 498K 3/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Neither of the other two wells (#27521, #27520) on that three well pad show any jump in production. 

Three older wells to the west show no jump in production either (#20589, #22360, #22361).

Five "30XXX" wells on a single pad in that immediate area:
  • 30688, 1,391, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2TFH, t10/15; cum 297K 3/19; GL;
  • 30687, 1,841, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-2H, t10/15; cum 214K 3/19; AL;
  • 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, t10/15; cum 353K 3/19; F;
  • 30775, AB/175, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-4TFH, t10/15; cum 337 bbls (no typo) 10/15;
  • 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH, t10/15; cum 661K 3/19; F;

On Twitter Today -- May 15, 2019

All stories that have been followed on the blog.

US Crude Oil Exports -- May 15, 2019


Later, 9:18 p.m. Central Time: see first comment. A reader disagreed with my suggestion that the long pole in the tent would be export terminals along the Gulf Coast. See this post with additional data suggesting why the reader is correct; I was wrong.

Original Post 

EIA tracks US crude oil and petroleum products exports here but the data is almost three months old. Here it is May 15, 2019, and the recent EIA data for US crude oil exports is February, 2019.

In very round numbers, the US has been exporting 8.1 million bopd since October 2018.

There are actually two EIA charts:
I'll have to wait for the twitter folks to sort this out, but it appears in round numbers:
  • the US is building its crude oil inventories by one to seven million bbls each week
  • the US is exporting 2 million bopd but that number is trending up quickly (although export terminals may put a cap on crude oil exports for awhile)
  • 2 million bopd x 7 days = 14 million bbls per week, and yet the US inventory is building at a rate of 1 to 7 million bbls/week (this is why the world will have a supply problem if US export terminals come on line quickly enough).
Rigzone provided a nice update regarding US production, refining capacity, exports at this link on January 17, 2019. Some data points:
  • US crude oil production: topping 11 million bopd; disagreement on the future rate of change
  • US refining capacity: 18.6 million bopd
  • US refiners: generally configured to process heavier crudes imported from longtime suppliers Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela (again, thank you, Mr Obama, for killing the Keystone XL; what a doofus)
  • 65% of US crude oil production has a very high 40-degree API gravity or above
  • explains why the US is still imported an average of 8 million bopd lat year (2018)
  • [Chinese imports in flux]
  • export capacity lagging in the US; might be able to reach 5 million bopd over the next five years
Ah, yes, right on time, the twitter folks come through with the synopsis of where we stand:
  • the US crude oil market has problems (too much)
  • US crude oil producers have a [too much/too fast] supply problem ... and yes, it is higher than what the EIA is reporting
  • US oil refiners have a [good] supply problem as local discounts are starting to appear once again
  • traders, blenders, and exporters have a [good] supply problem as all they need is for those Permian pipelines to start up in 2H19
  • Cushing may have a problem if those pipelines don't start o time in 2H19
  • the US consumer doesn't appear to have a problem with price (yet)
  • the world will have a supply problem in 2H19 when US crude oil supply finally reconnects to the seaborne crude market (via pipelines, ports, and boats)
No, the world won't have a supply problem in 2H19 if Rigzone is correct. The long pole in the tent will be export terminals off the Gulf Coast. Rigzone says the capacity if about 2 million bopd now, and might get to 5 million bopd in five years.

But the numbers are interesting. Saudi Arabia is producing about 10 million bopd and exporting about half that. 

US Crude Oil Inventories Jumped By 5.4 Million Bbls -- EIA -- May 15, 2019

EIA: weekly petroleum report later this morning. Link here. Corroborates the huge build reported by API yesterday.
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: increased by a pretty impressive 5.4 million bbls 
  • weekly US crude oil inventories now stand at 472.0 million bbls
  • weekly US crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five-year average (wink, wink)
  • refineries operating at 90.5% capacity; trending up but still down; maintenance and winter/summer switch-over coming to an end
  • imports: down almost 10% from same four-week period last year
    • having said that, imports last week, just for that one week, increased by almost a million bopd, averaging 7.6 million bopd
  • propane/propylene inventories are almost 20% above the five-year average
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 11% compared with same four-week period last year
  • gasoline demand will be reported later today
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 10
January 31, 2019
Week 11
February 6, 2019
Week 12
February 13, 2019
Week 13
February 21, 2019
Week 14
February 27, 2019
Week 15
March 6, 2019
Week 16
March 13, 2019
Week 17
March 20, 2019
Week 18
March 27, 2019
Week 19
April 3, 2019
Week 20
April 10, 2019
Week 21
April 17, 2019
Week 22
April 24, 2019
Week 23
May 1, 2019
Week 24
May 8, 2019
Week 25
May 15, 2019

Against 5-year average: EIA says US crude oil inventories about 2% over 5-year average.

Against 350 million bbls, which is way more than needed, 472 million bbls is 35% higher.

Against 300 million bbls which had been the historical "norm,' 472 million bbls is 57% higher.

This is now all about US crude oil exports. One needs to use calculus to calculate how much oil must be exported each week to move the US toward a) re-balancing at 400 million bbls; b) 350 million bbls in storage; c) 300 million bbls in storage.

It would be interesting to see the "target" for US storage of crude oil that Exxon, Chevron, COP, etc, are setting internally. In other words, anticipating exports in 2020, how much storage does the US need, based on estimates by the oil companies and/or the EIA?

Storage at Cushing is apparently no longer an issue and most new storage has been put in along the US gulf coast. When storage got "tight" in Cushing many years ago there were many, many stories on storage issues. However, I haven't seen similar stories now, and I wonder how much excess storage exists.

It seems the EIA weekly petroleum report could:
a) provide storage capacity; and,
b) post the amount of US crude oil exported the previous week; they provide the "import" data, but not the "export" data?
The EIA weekly petroleum report still reflects the way the US was before the shale revolution.

EIA tracks US crude oil exports here.

Fortunately, twitter contributors will provide this data.