Thursday, May 27, 2021

Whiting To Add Three Maki Wells To The Prolific Sanish -- May 27, 2021

Originally there were nine wells in this one-mile stretch. Now, May 27, 2021, no less than sixteen locations/wells. To the original list below, add:

  • 25728, 892, Whiting, Brown 41-28-2XH, Sanish, t10/13; cum 253K 3/21; 
  • 25727, 1,302, Whiting, Brown 42-28XH, Sanish, t10/13; cum 370K 3/21; 
  • 37867, loc, Whiting, Maki 11-27HU, Sanish,
  • 37847, loc, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2HU, Sanish,
  • 37846, loc, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H, Sanish,
  • 25932, 277, Whiting, Oja 13-27-3XH, Sanish, t2/14; cum 447K 3/21; 
  • 25931, 328, Whiting, Oja 13-27-2XH, Sanish, t2/14; cum 258K 3/21;

Original Post

Random look at nine (9) Whiting wells along a one-mile stretch in the Sanish. They are all long laterals; four are sited in section 28 and run to the northwest; five are sited in section 27 and run to the southeast (T154N-R91W):

  • 17612, AB/4,345, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Sanish, t10/09; cum 882K 11/19;
  • 18213, 3,308, Whiting, Platt 44-28H, Sanish, t12/09; cum 580K 3/21;
  • 18530, 2,686, Whiting, Jorgensen 12-27H, Sanish, t5/10; cum 502K 3/21;
  • 18559, 2,123, Whiting, Platt 43-28H, Sanish, t4/10; cum 443K 3/21;
  • 19512, 1,959, Whiting, Oja 14-27XH, Sanish, t2/11; cum 443K 3/21;
  • 19760, 853, Whiting, Deal 43-28TFH, Sanish, t3/11; cum 178K 3/21;
  • 20358, 337, Whiting, Ray 12-27TFH, Sanish, t12/11; cum 159K 3/21;
  • 20505, AB/2,868, Whiting, Brown 41-28XH, Sanish, t3/12; cum 410K 2/20;
  • 21629, 461, Whiting, Jorgensen 11-27H, Sanish, t2/12; cum 375K 3/21;

Flashback: This Was Posted October 27, 2011

This was posted October 27, 2011:

Link here.
DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.
Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2024.
Remember, it was the US Navy paying $26/gallon for algae-derived fuel, or something like that.

Update: here's the link -- Pentagon paid $150 per gallon for "green" jet fuel to promote alternative energy. If that link ever breaks, here's the link to the blog where the story was posted. The story was posted elsewhere also, but this will do for now.

February Freeze To Last Sixteen Months -- May 27, 2021

******************************
Things Have Changed

I don't know if folks are paying attention, but things have changed, things are starting to "break" right for Saudi Arabia:

  • IEA says all "new" exploration needs to cease immediately;
    • Saudi would be exempt; the country doesn't do "new" exploration;
  • XOM shareholders vote for two "activist" directors;
  • Shell ordered to cut emissions by state court;
  • Chevron shareholders vote in favor of cutting emissions including from the fuels they produce;
  • more and more evidence that without (more) US offshore exploration and production, supply won't meet demand; and Biden not likely to push for more US offshore exploration (LOL)

Yes, things have changed. Bob Dylan turned 80 years old earlier this week, Monday, May 24, 2021.


Devil's advocate:

I don't recall the specifics (and it may be apocryphal) but it seems I recall Ronald Reagan saying the US could outspend Russia when taunting the latter during "Star Wars." 

One now wonders, with Biden's proposed $6 trillion budget, if the US economy could literally dwarf/drown the EU? My hunch: European leaders are watching "this stuff" closely.

  • someone reported if it's passed, Biden's $6 trillion budget would be the largest annual budget since WWII; does that mean in today's dollars, the US budget during WWII was bigger? See this link.
  • Ford wants to be the #1 battery manufacturer in the US; the company's stock is surging;
  • is any manufacturer outside the US building EV trucks?  
  • the US is going to need a lot of energy to support everything proposed in a $6 trillion budget;
  • US could have the world's largest solar / wind energy industry before it's all over;
  • the US is likely to become the world's largest source of semiconductors within the next couple of years -- if we aren't already?
  • pundits seemed worried about Biden's spending; the market seems fine with it;
  • Biden wants to retroactively raise the capital gains tax from ~28% to ~43% for those with annual incomes greater than $1 million;
    • it's retroactive, but just barely if I understand it correctly -- would go back to the beginning of this year (2021); plenty of time yet this year for rich folks to sort this out;

It would be nice to see a breakdown of the $6 trillion and compare it to the current budget.  

Let's just all stick together. This could be a transformational decade. It certainly doesn't have the feel of the lost decade under George Bush II or the lost decade under Barack Obama.

Free Electricity For Butte, Montana? Why Not? Massive Solar Project -- May 27, 2021

Link here.

  • Basin Creek Solar Project
  • solar project
  • one of the largest, if not the largest, in the US, if approved
  • $250 million
  • 300 MW
  • $250 / 300 = $800,000 / MW
  • Madison River Equity LLC
  • parent company manages Atlas Power, a cryptomining outfit
  • county planning board to begin discussion, June 17, 2021

Also here:

  • 1,600 acres (2.5 sections; about the size of a drilling unit in the Bakken)
  • could power 40,000 homes
  • entire county has about 14,000 homes
  • cryptomining would only require 75 MW; the rest would be sold
  • Atlas has previously mined bitcoin but is now looking at mining ethereum so it can use GPU processors instead of the power-hot ASIC machines

Nvidia: uses GPU processors
ASIC mining machines: designed to mine only one type of cryptocurrency; link here;

ND State Mineral Quarterly Lease Sales -- May, 2021

Link here

Burke County:

  • parcels: 8
  • bonus/acre:
    • range: $112 - $351
  • bidders: Liberty Resources, Iron Horse Royalties, Norra Resources, Northern Energy, Rockall Energy;
  • largest unit: 160 acres, at $112/acre

Hettinger County:

  • parcels: 15
  • bonus / acre:
    • range: $7 - $31
  • bidders: Aurora Energy, Northern Energy, Retamco Operating
  • largest unit: 80 acres, at $32/acre

McKenzie County:

  • parcels: 2
  • bonus / acre: $77, $91
  • bider: Iron Oil Operating
  • largest unit: both units were 160 acres;

Slope County:

  • parcels: 24
  • bonus / acre: $2 - $9
    • bidders: Ahmet Apaydin; Interwest Petroleum, RJA 3 (first mention on the blog?), 
    • Apaydin? See this post.
  • largest unit: 160 acres at $9 / acre

Stark County:

  • parcels: 3
  • bonus/acre: $19, $51, $68
  • bidders: B J Kadrmas, Northern Energy,
  • largest unit: 79.81 acres at $19 / acre

Williams County:

  • parcels: 8
  • bonus / acre: $93 - $187
    • bidders: Northern Energy, Lonetree Energy
  • largest unit: 160 acres at $183

Brent At $69.65; WTI At $67.17; No New Permits; Eigth Permits Renewed -- May 27, 2021

From May 20, 2021, link here:

Over on twitter earlier today, someone asked, "where are all the $70-Brent bulls now?"

My reply: "Quietly buying Chevron stock."

Brent May 20, 2021: flat, down 3 cents. Trading at $65.

Today:

  • Brent: $69.65
  • CVX: $102.88

Quietly buying CVX

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

*********************************************
Back to the Bakken


Active rigs
:

$67.17
5/27/202105/27/202005/27/201905/27/201805/27/2017
Active Rigs2011656550

No new permits.

Eight permits renewed:

  • Ovintiv (5): four Sailfish permits in McKenzie County and one Gariety permit, also in McKenzie County;
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: one Grays state permit in Divide County;
  • Iron Oil Operating: one Bear Butte permit in McKenzie County;

Two permits canceled:

  • WPX: two Edward Goodbird permits in Dunn County;

One re-completed well #12607:

  • 12607, 69, Cobra Oil, Haydraw 28-24F, Hay Draw, Birdbear, t2/90; cum 201K 3/20; intermittent since then;
  • 12607, AR, Cobra Oil, Haydraw 28-24F, Hay Draw, Red River, 9/23/19, no data;
  • 12607, AR, Cobra Oil, Haydraw 28-24F, Hay Draw, Stonewall, 9/23/19, no data;

Covid-19 Update -- May 27, 2021

CDC data here.

Lowest number of vaccinations administered for a Thursday report, going back to February 18, 2021 (last column / column 6).

It was reported that only 1.5 million vaccinations were give in the most recent Thursday, 24-hour report. 

That is the lowest since February 18, 2021. 

The highest for a Thursday was April 15, 3.5 million vaccinations given. After that, continued decrease. Note: the "JNJ pause" was announced April 13, 2021.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Thursday

May 27, 2021

361,250,445

1,401,410

290,724,607

1,512,303

Thursday

May 20, 2021

351,955,515

2,745,420

279,397,250

2,107,077

Thursday

May 13, 2021

339,165,445

2,075,680

266,596,486

1,915,642

Thursday

May 6, 2021

324,610,185

3,060,850

251,973,752

2,406,932

Thursday 

April 29, 2021

305,478,495

3,620,610

237,360,493

2,721,079

Thursday 

April 22, 2021

282,183,915

4,245,040

218,947,643

2,995,734

Thursday

April 15, 2021

255,400,665

4,402,400

198,317,040

3,525,204

Thursday

April 8, 2021

229,398,685

4,104,250

174,879,716

3,403,061

Thursday 

April 1, 2021

200,496,635

4,914,910

153,631,404

3,358,112

Thursday 

March 25, 2021

173,525,335

4,302,210

133,305,295

2,831,442

Thursday 

March 18, 2021

151,108,445

3,517,830

115,730,008

2,692,381

Thursday 

March 11, 2021

131,131,470

3,262,315

98,203,893

2,482,603

Thursday

March 4, 2021

109,905,530

2,876,640

82,572,848

2,032,374

Thursday

February 25, 2021

91,673,010

3,003,975

68,274,117

1,809,170

Thursday

February 18, 2021

75,287,810

1,814,918

57,933,435

1,651,608


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Today's Geography Lesson

From wiki by way of Joshua Slocum, 1900.
The Río de la Plata, literally, "river of silver"), called River Plate in British English and the Commonwealth and La Plata River (occasionally Plata River) in other English-speaking countries, is the estuary formed by the confluence of the Uruguay River and the Paraná River at Punta Gorda. 
It empties into the Atlantic Ocean and forms a funnel-shaped indentation on the southeastern coastline of South America. Depending on the geographer, the Río de la Plata may be considered a river, an estuary, a gulf, or a marginal sea. 
It is the widest river in the world, with a maximum width of 220 kilometres (140 mi).

It forms part of the border between Argentina and Uruguay, with the major ports and capital cities of Buenos Aires and Montevideo on its western and northern shores, respectively.

The historical English name "River Plate" uses an obsolete sense of the word "plate", which was used extensively as a term for "silver" or "gold" from the 12th century onwards, especially in Early Modern English.

The CLR Wells In Oakdale Oil Field Permitted In 2018 Have Been Updated -- May 27, 2021

The Oakdale oil field is tracked elsewhere

There is a rig on site in the field, but it is drilling a SWD well. 

The Oakdale oil field wells permitted in 2018:

  • 35273, F/2,405, Carson Peak 4-35H2L, t6/19; cum 562K 3/21;
  • 35272, 3,376, Carson Peak 4-35HSL, t6/19; cum 677K 3/21; almost 700K in less than two years;
  • 35109, IA/F/856, Morris 7-26H2, t4/19; cum 304K 1/21; off line 1/21;
  • 35108, 1,824, Carson Peak 6-35H1, t5/19; cum 448K 3/21; off line for much of 2/21 - 3/21;
  • 35087, drl/A, Morris 11-26H, no production data,
  • 35086, drl/A, Morris 10-26H2, no production data,
  • 35085, drl/A, Morris 9-26H, no production data,
  • 35084, drl/A, Carson Peak 1-35H1, no production data,
  • 35083, drl/A, Carson Peak 9-35H, 2 bbls 3/21;
  • 35082, IA/F/1,593, Morris 8-26H1, t4/19; cum 330K 9/20; off line 10/20;
  • 35081, IA/3,556, Carson Peak 8-35H2, t5/19; cum 633K 1/21; off line 2/21;
  • 35080, IA/2,076, Carson Peak 7-35H, t6/19; cum 455K 12/20; off line 1/21;

The parent well:

  • 18275, 1,020, CLR, Hawkinson 1-22H, Oakdale, t2/10; cum 733K 3/21; currently producing about 750 bbls/month; ready for a re-frack;

It certainly appears the daughter wells permitted in 2018 will be as good or better than the parent well. Whoo-hoo.

The graphics:

Nothing About The Bakken -- 2021

Neanderthals: two months later, Texas reports zero Covid deaths

Nautical terms: British site here.

Points on a compass: quick, how many points are there on a compass? From allormore/fandom, there are anywhere from four to thirty-two points depending on the compass:

The points of the compass are points on a compass, specifically on the compass rose, marking divisions of the four cardinal directions: North, South, East, West. 

The number of points may be only the 4 cardinal points, or the 8 principal points adding the intercardinal (or ordinal) directions northeast (NE), southeast (SE), southwest (SW), and northwest (NW). For nice definition and description, see this link.

In metereological usage further intermediate points are added to give the sixteen points of a wind compass.

Finally, at the most complete in European tradition, are found the full thirty-two points of the mariner's compass.

But in ancient China 24 points of the compass were used.

The mariner's practice of boxing the compass is the action of naming all thirty-two points of the compass in order clockwise.

The names of intermediate points are formed by the initials of the cardinal directions and their intermediate ordinal directions, and are very handy to refer to a heading (or course or azimuth) in a general or colloquial fashion, without having to resort to computing or recalling degrees.

For most applications, the minor points have been superseded by degrees measured clockwise from North. 

While sailing from the Strait of Gibraltar, "every point of the compass threatened a wild storm. My attention was turned to reefing sails ... and I was glad to head the sloop three points or more away from her true course that she might ride safely over the waves." 

So, if Joshua Slocum was using the traditional European mariner's compass, his device had 32 points, or 11.25 degrees between points. 

The names of the points as well as the degrees are at the link above.  

It's interesting to compare the points on a compass with the divisions on a clock and one wonders why the Europeans did not use the divisions of a 12-hour / 24-hour timepiece. If one compares the two, one quickly sees the difference but having said that, the Chinese, with twenty-four points on their compass would have / could have incorporated their 12-hour / 24-hour timepiece with a compass. Fascinating. I know nothing about these things, so another subject Sophia and I will have to learn together.

Last week of school!

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Bakken Production Forecast To Decline Later This Summer -- May 27, 2021

From May 20, 2021, link here:

Over on twitter earlier today, someone asked, "where are all the $70-Brent bulls now?"

My reply: "Quietly buying Chevron stock."

Brent today: flat, down 3 cents. Trading at $65.

Today:

  • Brent: $69.13
  • CVX: $102.88

Quietly buying CVX

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken production: forecast to fall later this summer as DUCs decline

  • per Platts, that link: from May, 2020, to April, 2021, DUCs dropped from 877 to 647
  • per blog, May 25, 2021 (April data):
    • May, 2020: 877
    • April, 2021: 647
  • same data source
  • fact-checked.

Active rigs:

$66.59
5/27/202105/27/202005/27/201905/27/201805/27/2017
Active Rigs2011656550

Active rigs down one from yesterday; MRO with one less active rig today. CLR still with seven active rigs (one drilling a SWD well).

No wells coming off confidential list:

RBN Energy: San Juan natural gas basis goes premium.

It’s not often these days that you read about gas markets in the San Juan Basin. In fact, the subject was probably never much of a hot topic because the San Juan has been something of an afterthought when it comes to Western gas markets, just a stop on the road between the Permian and markets along the West Coast and in the Rockies. However, those Western gas markets are setting up to be quite interesting this summer, as is the Waha gas market in the Permian, and understanding the mechanics of the San Juan is just one piece of the overall Western puzzle. In today’s blog, we take a look at the far-flung but increasingly interesting markets west of the Permian Basin.

May 27, 2021

Jobless report: they've been posted. The actual numbers don't matter (we've discussed this before). But how did the Dow react. Just minutes before the number same out, Dow futures were up 75 points; as the numbers came out the Dow futures moved to 120 points on the upside. Prior to the numbers coming out, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were in the red. Following the release of the data, S&P turned slightly positive (essentially flat) while the NASDAQ remained red, about 45 points down.  7:35 a.m. CT; numbers were released at 7:30 a.m. CT.

WTI: down slightly; $65.78.

A Closer Look At The LCU Truman Well Being Drilled By CLR -- May 27, 2021

The usual disclaimer applies: there may be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

CLR's Long Creek - Bakken unit is tracked here.

It was noted yesterday that CLR has a sixth rig (?) in the Bakken, bringing a rig into the Long Creek Unit.

The rig is "assigned" to this well:

  • 36986, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 2-23HSL, Long Creek, acres in spacing unit - 6,399 acres (10 sections) -- spacing unit: Long Creek-Bakken unit;
    • surface: 23-153-99, 538 FNL 215 FWL
    • bottom hole: 26-153-99, 158 FSL 0FWL
    • estimated total depth lateral 1
      • MD: 21,487 feet; TVD: 10,953 feet

The graphic: