Saturday, July 3, 2021

An Old Ovintiv/Newfield Sorenson Federal Well Has Just Gone Over 530K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- July 3, 2021

The well:

  • 34330, 3,184, Ovintiv/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-2H, Sand Creek, 62 stages, 9.9 million lbs, t4/18; cum 133K 7/18; see below; cum 529K 4/21;

It "Took Forever," But An EOG Riverview Well Finally Went Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- July 3, 2021

The EOG Riverview wells in Clarks Creek are tracked here.

It seemed to "take forever," but #22199 finally went over 500K bbls crude cumulative oil. The well: 

  • 22199, 1,088, EOG, Riverview 100-3031H, Clarks Creek, t6/12; cum 489K 3/20; off line as of 1/19; back on line 9/19; not particularly remarkable when it came back on line; cum 499K 4/21; recent production profile --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The CLR Pasadena Wells Have Been Updated -- July 3, 2021

The CLR Pasadena / Pasadena Federal wells have been updated. Three new sites show up at PNC on the scout tickets but are in fact being drilled. One Pasadena well has a rig on site.

Well Said -- July 3, 2021

Another reminder: keep your gas tanks full. Service stations are going to be running out of fuel by Monday, July 5, 2021.

Tonight: NBA basketball. Conference championship series continues. But also playing, Beetlejuice (Beetle Juice -- what an interesting cast), and Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Decisions, decisions. And, of course, auto racing. Hulu.

Flathead Lake, Montana

The "family home" is on Flathead Lake -- wow, talk about beauty and "serenity/tranquility .. which word to use --- google ... the difference between tranquillity and serenity is that tranquillity is the state of being tranquil while serenity is the state of being serene; calmness; peacefulness.

Well, that was helpful. Not.


If we need anything of consequence (more than beer and bread) we need to drive fourteen miles north to Kalispell, and another three miles through the town to get to the big box stores on the north side. 

The answer?


The UPS trucks makes a regular tour through our housing area every night dropping off what we need. 

And that folks, is a match made in heaven. 

Tonight I ordered non-perishable staples for the folks at the "family home." The supplies will arrive in a couple of days. No one out there knows this stuff is coming, but they will appreciate it when it arrives.

For readers, I have returned to north Texas after a long week on Flathead Lake, but I will be returning to Lakeside, Montana, in late July for a longer stay this time. 

What a great country.

Later. See first comment:

Notes From All Over -- Saturday Night Edition Continued -- July 3, 2021

SpaceX: say what you want about Elon Musk, there's not many folks who could do this -- SpaceX launches 88 satellites into orbit and nails the rocket landing. Link here. Is it just me, but do these satellites simply seem like "drones" in space?

Coal is dead! Long live coal! Link to Charles Kennedy: more than two billion tons of coal mining capacity is about to come online. 

Who owns the Fourth of July? Op-ed in The WSJ

Let it also not pass unnoticed that while much of the country stayed home as ordered, workers in hospitals, supermarkets, drugstores, factories, distribution centers and other places awoke each day, went to their jobs and kept the country afloat, oblivious to the political obsessions of their at-home fellow citizens.

Another notable source of stability, largely missed by a media focused on Covid and racism, was that for much of the pandemic’s year, most of the nation’s religious, private and many charter schools heroically stayed open while public-school unions refused to let their members teach.

[Unless I missed it, the writer of this op-ed failed to mention military personnel.]

Hulu and the Amazon TV Fire Stick: can't say enough positive things about the experience. Auto racing, NBA basketball, The Third Man on TCM and that's just the start. Ice Age, also. It simply does not quit. Orson Welles in The Third Man --- holy mackerel -- Kelsey Grammer channels Orson Welles in The Third Man. The music is incredible. Black and white. LOL.

Duolingo: Sophia and I have 286 consecutive days -- have not missed one day since starting -- of a Duolingo Spanish lesson. Slowly but surely. 

On The Water

Flathead Lake, June, 2021.

Saturday Evening Notes -- July 3, 2021

Pelicans: This is pretty cool. North America's largest pelican summer refuge is in North Dakota. 

McKenzie County skippers. Link to The Bismarck Tribune. McKenzie County home to a near-endangered butterfly, the skipper. If blocked by the paywall or if you want to avoid the ads, click on this link, and then just add one more note: environmentalists seek to get this nondescript insect on the endangered list. The little-known butterfly makes its home in McKenzie County. Yes, you can see where this is headed. 

Kabuki dance? Oil boom, Native Americans, and Biden administration. Link to AP News

On oil well pads carved from the wheat fields around Lake Sakakawea, hundreds of pump jacks slowly bob to extract 100 million barrels of crude annually from a reservation shared by three Native American tribes.

About half their 16,000 members live on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation atop one of the biggest U.S. oil discoveries in decades, North Dakota’s Bakken shale formation.

The drilling rush has brought the tribes unimagined wealth -- more than $1.5 billion and counting -- and they hope it will last another 20 to 25 years. The boom also propelled an almost tenfold spike in oil production from Native American lands since 2009, federal data shows, complicating efforts by President Joe Biden to curb carbon emissions.

Burning of oil from tribal lands overseen by the U.S. government now produces greenhouse gases equivalent to about 12 million vehicles a year, according to an Associated Press analysis. But Biden exempted Native American lands from a suspension of new oil and gas leases on government-managed land in deference to tribes’ sovereign status.

Later tonight: you might find me here

Gasoline Demand -- Fourth Of July, 2021

Three tweets from the "GasBuddyGuy" today -- a huge reminder: if you have not already filled your gas tank this might be a good time to do that. I think most prudent folks would not let their tanks fall below half full. 

The tweets, with replies/comments for the third tweet. 

  • One: early calcuations peg US gasoline demand for the Friday ahead of July 4 edging out any year since 2017, when the Pay with GasBuddy program began.
  • Two: US gasoline demand this week (Sunday - Friday) now running almost 7% higher than the same period ahead of Memorial Day (2021).
  • Three: according to GasBuddy data, Friday US gasoline demand hit a new Covid high, surging over 9% from last Friday, the highest single day for demand since 2019.
    • California: should be pushing $4.85 soon (octane 91); $4.59 right now
    • since March, 2020, I've refilled the tank whenever it reached 4/5 to 3/4 of a tank left; gas lines seem a very real possibility;
    • lots of quibbling; those replying want more "context." LOL. I don't need any context to see $1.59 gasoline last summer and $2.79 gasoline this summer in north Texas. 

Sorry It's Not Longer

Flathead Lake, Montana, June, 2021. Sophia on the paddleboard. Turning seven years old this summer. 

COP's Ten-Year Plan Subsequent To The Concho Acquisition -- July 3, 2021


July 4, 2021: now that folks  have had a chance to look at the presentation, my thoughts regarding COP's plans for the Bakken. Not ready for prime-time (this has updated/corrected based on information from a reader):

From the presentation: COP says it has 620,000 net acres in the Bakken.

The standard drilling unit in the Bakken is 1280 acres. Dividing 620,000 net acres by 1280 acres (the standard Bakken drilling unit) one gets about 500 drilling units.
If we are interpreting the slides correctly, COP says it has an inventory of 500 "new" operated wells in the Bakken. That means COP has an average of one well one each of its drilling units. Much (most) of COP's Bakken acreage is Tier 1. 
Tier 1 Bakken acreage will easily support eight wells / 1280-acre unit and very likely could support as many as twenty-four wells.

Later, 4:03 p.m.: for regular readers of the blog and/or for those who feel they have a good understanding of the Bakken. Look at the "inventory" numbers COP provides for the Bakken. Any thoughts? I'll provide mine later but this is quite fascinating -- as everything about the Bakken is fascinating.

Original Post

ConocoPhillips (COP) special call -- slideshow. Link here.

I assume this slide deck was put together after COP acquired Concho, probably prepared to provide analysts and investors COP's ten-year plan with the acquisition of Concho.

  • 59 slides
  • a huge amount of information
  • much I do not understand
  • only a few highlights below
  • ten-year plan and outlook
  • free cash flow / breakeven price: ~ $30/bbl average
    • > $70 billion free cash flow over the decade at $50/bbl WTI
  • remember: COP + Concho
  • lower 48:
    • Delaware: 440,000 net acres
    • Midland: 260,000 net acres
    • Eagle Ford: 200,000 net acres
    • Bakken: 620,000 net acres
  • inventory over ten years with breakeven price
    • 6,800 wells
    • Permian (10-year stats): 4,700 operated new wells; $23 billion FCF
    • Eagle Ford (10-year stats): 1,600 operated new wells; $8 billion FCF
    • Bakken (10-year stats): 500 operated new wells; $4 billion FCF
  • well production performance -- COP
    • Delaware: #1
    • Midland: #1
    • Eagle Ford: #1
    • Bakken: #3
  • slide 35 mentions "twin fracks" increasing number of frack stages per day
  • slide 36: Delaware single-well capital
    • 2019: $1,150 / ft
    • current: $700 / ft
  • slide 37: "slim hole drilling" 
  • slide 38: "zippering zippers"
  • slide 39: re-fracks
    • 75% average EUR uplift (100% would be a doubling of the EUR)
    • refrack inventory: 350+
    • the Bakken specifically noted

Notes From All Over -- The Covid-19 Edition -- July 3, 2021

Ed Yong has an interesting article in The Atlantic. First noted in this tweet:

The link to The Atlantic article.

CDC data here.

Notes From All Over -- The Katie Ledecky / Lana Elaine Fraser Edition -- July 3, 2021

Grilling. Apparently not all news CNN reports is fake. Link here. Six BBQ grills were tested, and rated. Contestants:

  • Weber Original Premium Kettle grill, 22 inches wide, three colors: best overall grill; $175 - $195;
  • Weber Original Kettle grill, 18 inches wide; for under $100; best budget grill; $99
  • Oklahoma Joe's Blackjack Charcoal Kettle grill, $280;
  • Napoleon Pro 22-Inch Freestanding Charcoal Kettle grill, $499
  • Char-Griller Premium Red Kettle Charcoal grill, $177.62
  • Cuisinart 18-Inch Kettle Charcoal Grill, $85 - $95

Estates: older Americans stockpiled a record $35 trillion. Link to The WSJ. Some data points (although I thought the article was pretty lame); some numbers rounded:

  • the greatest wealth transfer in modern history has begun;
  • 1Q21:
    • Americans aged 70 and above, a net worth of $35 trillion, Federal Reserve data
    • amounts to 27% of all US wealth, up form 20% three decades ago
    • that wealth is equal to 175% of US GDP, more than double the proportion 30 years ago
  • older generations will hand down $70 trillion between 2018 and 2042
    • $60 trillion to heirs, mostly millennials and Generation Xers
    • another example of the outsize economic power of baby boomers
  • average inheritance:
    • 2019: $200,000
    • 1998: $150,000
  • 2026: gift-tax exemption will drop back to $5.5 million/person; currently, $12 million/individual

Katie Ledecky:

  • has officially qualified for the Tokyo Olympic Games
  • 200-meter; 400-meter; 800-meter; and, the 1500-meter freestyles
  • link here

Apple: likely to debut next-gen 3-nm chip technology in 2022 iPad Pro. Link here

Ethanol gasoline (E15): US court rejects EPA rule expanding E15 sales. Link here.

  • an appeals court has thrown out a federal rule finalized in 2019 that authorized year-round sales of fifteen-percent ethanol gasoline (E15) blends across the US, dealing a blow to biofuel producers who pushed for the change
  • unanimous decision, 3 - 0;
  • very, very interesting -- the basis for the court's ruling
  • in plain language, the law said ten percent ethanol; no way did it apply to fifteen percent ethanol;
  •  court's judgment won't change anything for awhile; as usual, the court delays enforcement giving plaintiffs opportunity to appeal
  • the ruling does not affect the same 2019 rule affecting RINs

MDU or OKE: Zacks. I disagree with Zacks' recommendation. Link here.

Travel: a look at the big differences in the three units of the TR National Park. Link here. Quick! Name the three units and where they are located in relation to each other.

A Musical Interlude


Post-graduate contestant. 2014.

Wins crown. 2014.

In her earlier days, some seven years earlier

Katie Ledecky From A Reader

I can't remember if I posted this before. This comes from a reader. 

Regarding Katie Ledecky.
Take Michael Jordan.
Take Tom Brady.
Take Wayne Gretsky.
Take Sugar Ray Robinson.
Take Pele or Maradona.
Take Dale Earnhardt or Richard Petty.
Take Tiger Woods or Jack Nicklaus.
Yes, take The Babe.

While there will be endless debates/quibbles about different candidates/statistics/positional aspects, the above named athletes will - unarguably - be on every single comparative listing when the Greatest Of All Time athletes are discussed. 
(Informed observers ought not even question Jim Thorpe as being the Greatest All Around due to, if nothing else, both his versatility and overcoming of hardships. Name One. Single. Athlete today who could win 2 Olympic gold medals wearing discarded shoes of two different sizes - neither of which matched Thorpe's).

However, using one single metric, I would think it indisputable that Katie Lececky is not merely the best swimmer to ever don a pair of goggles, she is the Greatest Of All Time athlete as she does not merely beat her rivals year after year, she CRUSHES them ... all world class athletes themselves.

Think Petty winning his races by a full lap for 10 years running. 
Sugar Ray knocking out everyone in the first round. 
Tiger or the Bear leading every single round in every tournament for a straight decade. 
The Babe hitting 60 home runs with a .400 batting average for several  years straight.

This is the proven track record of Katie Ledecky in her not only winning virtually every race for a solid decade now, she has destroyed her competition consistently race after race. 
Starting out as a 15 year old in the 2012 Olympics, she not only won the gold, she beat the runnerup by 4 full seconds. 
(For context, yesterday's women 200 IM had 4 one hundredths of a second - .04 seconds - separate the first, second, and third place finishers).

No doubt whatsoever ... 
The world has NEVER seen, and may never again witness, an athlete that has so dominated a sport for so long a time as Ms. Katie Ledecky has. Her overdue recognition ought to be acknowledged and applauded in the most widely spread fashion starting right now.