Tuesday, January 11, 2022

From Social Media Today -- January 11, 2022

From social media today.

  • OPEC does not want oil to reach $100 / bbl -- Oman's energy minister. 
    • Comment: $100 oil and the swing producer -- US shale -- will outdrill OPEC.
  • We probably remain in an era of very low interest rates. -- Jay Powell.
    • Does this sound like four rate increases is going to be much of a concern?
  • I will be introducing legislation tomorrow for N95 masks to be sent to every household in the country. -- Bernie Sanders.
    • LOL.
  • Brent at new high. What ridiculous thing happens now? Tom Loughrey.
    • New variant. What comes after Greek "omicron"?
  • It is time to talk about OPEC and its inability to perform. -- Crudehead.
    • Theme for 2022: spare capacity.
  • Stock market: majors surge. Majors don't move without big institutional buyers. Greed always wins out .. always. -- Dan Pickering.
    • Yup.
  • It will take two to four meetings to go through the balance sheet decision. -- Jay Powell. 
    • Does this sound like the Fed is going to move very quickly?
  • California has a $46 billion budget surplus. -- Joe Weisenthal. 
    • Amazing what a booming economy will do for any state's budget.

A Whiting "AB" Well Is Back On Line -- Brown 41-28XH -- #20505 -- January 11, 2022

Last time I checked this well, it was on the "AB" list -- abandoned. That was back in early 2020. Now, after almost a year off line, this well is back on line.

The well:

  • 20505, A/AB/2,868, Whiting, Brown 41-28XH, Sanish, t3/12; cum 410K 2/20; cum 419K 11/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The other two wells on this pad are also still producing and producing pretty nicely considering they were drilled back in 2013.

From A Jack To A King -- January 11, 2022


Later, 7:19 p.m. CT: see first comment. The file report shows this Three Forks well was fracked / stimulated 9/22/2017; 61 stages with 14.54 million lbs of proppant. FracFocus does not have any data regarding this well.

Original Post 

We last checked in on this well back in 2017. It was drilled six years earlier, in 2011, and I was never able to determine if it had been fracked. 

At best, as of 2017, it was a mediocre well, reporting cumulative production of around 100,000 bbls. But, wow, holy mackerel, checking tonight, this well has reported more than one million bbls crude oil cumulative. Full production here.

The well:

  • 20212, 482, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, fracked?; t9/11; cum 103K 1/17; API: 33-035-01261; no evidence this was fracked; cum 1.014994 million 11/21; production since 2014; note huge jump in production 2018. tell me about the dreaded Bakken decline again; and, Hubbert's peak oil theory?
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


Another, jack to a king:

From A Jack To A King, Ricky Van Shelton

Hunt With One New Permit; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 11, 2022

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3111556754

One new permit, #38738.

  • Operator: Hunt
  • Field: Clear Water (Mountrail)
  • Comment: 
    • Hunt has a permit for a Clearwater well in Clear Water oil field, NENW 35-157-90;
    • the well will be sited 247 FNL and 1514 FWL.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36692, 2,226, Grayson Mill, Jake 2-11F 7H,
  • 37856, 3,586, MRO, Evans USA 11-5TFH,

What's Going On In New England? Reuters Is Reading The Blog -- January 11, 2022


Later, 1:47 p.m. CT: eighteen percent of Boston's electricity is now being generated by burning oil. Link here. Coal? 3%. Total demand is relatively low. They could probably bring in more hydro (I don't know) but it's incredibly costly, but renewables only accounting for 9% of supply. When the reader sent me the note below, he noted that burning oil was accounting for an astounding 19% of provided electricity. The oil was coming from a refinery in Canada or a refinery in Russia. See original post. 

Original Post

I'll fill in the details and background to this later, but those who have been following the NE ISO story will understand this note from a reader who provides regular background and granularity to what's going on in the northeast:

Micro summary of present New England ISO fuel status ... 
An FSRU (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit - the Exemplar) has been just offshore Boston for 2 weeks feeding LNG into the region's pipeline system. 
The timing of the injections can be seen on the 'Fuel Mix Graph' by the abrupt increase in 'Gas fueled' power generation (top, light blue line). The source is from Trinidad
Just off Cape Cod - 5 hours from docking at Everett - is an LNG ship also coming from Trinidad
The high oil burning component (19% !!! at this moment) largely comes from the Irving refinery at nearby St. Johns, New Brunswick or the Primorsk refinery just north of St. Petersburg, Russia
(Undoubtedly VERY large supporters of the Renewable (sic)/anti gas pipeline movement in that region). =
Looking ahead, if the cold continues for 10/12 days with only brief interludes of milder temperatures - as current weather models predict - the region's supply of both natgas (in the form of LNG at Everett) and fuel oil may run precariously low. 
The irrationality of this situation is beyond belief and the next 2 to 3 winters will have similar parameters vis a vis wintertime electricity generation. 
(That picture of Corky with the 'banana telephone' is priceless).

Yes, I owe a lot to Corky keeping me up-to-date. She's a good soul.

This is quite incredible. In the comment section at another post, I suggested that this was exactly what was going on, but I don't have the specifics and the granularity to prove my point. This reader does and it is very much appreciated. 

By the way, Reuters is now reading the blog: "US New England power prices jump to four-year high as region freezes." Link here. A huge "thanks" to the reader who caught this.

Wow, Some Analyst Downgraded Devon Earlier This Morning -- Talk About Poor Timing -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? January 11, 2022

WTI just soared through $81. Link here

Surge to $81 comes just after the Brandon administration announces efforts to restrain drilling in Alaska. LOL. What in the world are "they" thinking. The question is whether the president was even aware of this. 

Time to release more oil from the SPR? So XOM can sell it to China and India?

And then some analyst downgraded Devon this morning. I didn't post / link the story -- it was unworthy of being linked. LOL. Hours later WTI soars through $80 and then $81.

Worse timing ever.

Devon up about a percent today, though much less than I would have expected. 

  • DVN: up 0.83%; up about 45 cents; trading at $48.90. Later: 1.75%; up 85 cents; trading at $49.35.
  • CVX: On a tear. Up 1.3%. Later: up 2.2%; up $2.73; trading at $127.91.
  • COP: up about 0.8%. Later: up 2.28%; up $1.85; trading at $82.89.
  • PSX: up 2.6%; up $2.14. Trading at $86.02. Later: up 3.14%; up $2.63; trading at $86.51.
  • XOM: up 2.5%; up $1.79. Trading at $70.24. Later: up 3.75%; up $2.55; trading at $71.00.

Others, non-energy, of interest:

  • TSM: up 2.4%; up $3; trading at $128. I see TSM as a proxy for AAPL, and vice versa. 
  • FCX and SCCO both up about the same percentage amount

Rest of market:

  • Jay Powell remarks
  • Ten-year Treasury
  • Covid economy

Back to energy:

  • whatever the earnings are when reported for 4Q21, right now it appears they will pale what the earnings will be for 1Q22; something to think about
  • could this be an incredible year or what?

The only thing that can slow down WTI: announcing another Covid variant. Yes, that will do it. China? South Africa? Austria? Lichtenstein?

Truer Words Never Spoken -- January 11, 2022

From a reader:

I Was Suprised The Blog Did Not Make The List -- LOL -- January 11, 2022

A reader sent me these statistics:

My reply:

I haven't seen this in a long, long, time. Or if I've seen it, I haven't paid attention to it.

I think GOP should be concerned how well CNN is doing. During a time of "no news" CNN continues to do well; page visits will surge if there's real news -- particularly political news.

CNN number 2. Easily beats NYT.

Washington Post's numbers really, really surprised me.

APPLE NEWS needs to get on the list.

Apparently no one reads "the news" in Los Angeles.
  • I'm very disappointed in the FOX NEWS internet site.
    • a lot of click bait
    • consistently underestimates the Biden administration 
    • other news outlets very, very, very biased BUT they write it in such a way that the average person does not realize it is slanted / biased
    • FOX NEWS is so incredibly biased and they make no attempt to "mainstream" it
    • FOX NEWS is not quite but it's close to becoming a parody of itself
    • which is a problem for me, because I honestly don't know best news source;
  • problem solved: I avoid all news to extent possible except that related directly to investing
  • two business sites, #8 and #12: CNBC and Wall Street Journal
    • CNBC much, much, much better for small investor; and is FREE
    • WSJ: target audience -- millionaires; not particularly useful for small investor; much better writing, of course, than CBNC; EXPENSIVE;

Fourteen Percent Of Generated Electriciity In Boston Coming From Oil; One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- January 11, 2022

The one data point to watch today: WTI

  • just before the market opens, WTI up 2.11%
  • WTI up $1.65:
  • trading at $79.88
  • only 12 cents away from $80 (again)

Speak with forked tongue:

  • last month US SecEnergy said government was doing everything it could to moderate gasoline prices;
  • today; US moves to restrict oil leasing in Alaska; WSJ
  • should be seen as good news by folks like me: makes the Permian and the Bakken look even better;
  • whoo-hoo
  • keep it in the ground; we'll eventually drill it, if necessary;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

NE ISO: burning oil not because it has to; it's the only way to keep prices from spiking even more.

  • fourteen percent of electricity being generated in NE ISO is now coming from oil. 
  • another three to five percent is coming from coal.

WTI: could hit $80 this week. BofA analyst still sees $100 oil.

  • airline traffic still remains way down; airline traffic huge driver of crude oil demand;
  • OPEC failed to meet production goals; data released overnight; spare capacity? What spare capacity?
  • note: Josh Young's bullish stand on oil makes me look like an oil bear; 

European energy crisis: natural gas prices rise (again) on muted Russian supply; cold weather; link here.


  • "uncomfortably thin market buffett" on current trajectory: link here.
  • note: Josh Young's bullish stand on oil makes me look like an oil bear; but I repeat myself;

Jay Powell: "testifies" today

  • last time he spoke, "transitory" was the new four-syllable word being bandied about;
  • today, the four-syllable phrase, "won't be entrenched";

Rivian shares

  • if it drops 30 more cents today, it will be trading below it IPO opening off and well below half it's same day exuberant opening (or thereabouts; this, I"m sure, will be fact-checked); link here;
  • fell "a few hundred short" of its approximately 1,000-car delivery goal;
  • COO departs; company says this was a planned retirement in the works for five months;
  • interestingly, no replacement named despite five months of planning; what am I missing?

Investors: coming in "fours" today -

  • four-word phrase: "won't be entrenched"
  • four syllable word: "transitory"
  • four letter acronym: "FANG"
  • four-letter ticker: "MNRL" (see Simply Wall St) --- not including dividends, 74% return over one year;

My biggest investment decision today:

  • sell high dividend commodity company going nowhere?
  • use those proceeds to buy very-low-dividend-paying company with huge appreciation potential
  • decisions, decisions

Inflation? What inflation?

  • beer: last night, in anticipation of the SEC Championship game (yes, the SEC Championship game), I went to Target to buy my favorite IPA; had not bought any in quite some time. It's always priced at $9.99 at Target; $8.99 at two other area stores, but Target was closer; that IPA was on sale at Target for $8.99
  • non-alcoholic ginger beer from Australia: has not increased prices in over two years; still $5.99 for a four-bottle pack; yes, we drink it straight; not for Moscow mules;
  • lamb: grass-fed lamb from Australia has been on-sale for months at local grocer; says "regular" price is $14.99 / lb (I've never paid that much for even the best lamb available);
    • on sale for $10.99 / lb
    • pricey but we're used to paying $9.99 for salmon so $10.99 for lamb from Australia hardly terrifying
  • Russet (or are they "russet") potatoes are practically free (I think 75 cents/pound)

See first comment, a reader asked:


  • negotiating for MLB rights for next summer (2022? 2023? I'm not sure what "next" is any more)
  • reading the judicial tea leaves: will allow alternate pay schemes on its platform in South Korea (I doubt AAPL has a platform in North Korea)
  • AAPL hints at record earnings for current quarter (Oct - Dec, 2021)
  • Apple is still bigger than all these companies combined;


  • I had no interest in accumulating any more, but ATT has had an incredible run the past few months;
  • I wonder if folks realize a huge dividend cut is coming;


  • PNC: circular received yesterday -- personal load "as low as" 7.44% - 9.74% APR, 60-month term with a minimum of $15,000
  • Schwab: 1.9%; no minimum; no late fees; no time period;

Jamie Dimon:

  • really, really, really upbeat about state of economy
  • suggestion: instead of some GOP politician giving SOTU response to Brandon, let Jamie Dimon do it;
  • if you really want to see fireworks, let Harold Hamm do the response; LOL

WORDLE, link here:

  • many, many strategies
  • never-fail strategy:
  • first line -- "ADEIU"
  • second line -- "AROSE" -- there's actually a better second word but I've forgotten it; should have written it down
  • third line: type in word based on "grey" letters only (to extent possible, of course)
  • guarantee: will solve every puzzle
  • 99% of time I solve the puzzle before having to use fifth (and last) guess

Best three minutes of television last night: last three minutes of the SEC Championship game;

  • yes, that's all I watched
  • tuned in after watching second episode of "Perry Mason" re-runs with my wife
  • Georgia had just returned a 79-year intercept icing the game for Georgia
  • I don't know who was crying more:
  • for joy: Georgia quarterback;
  • for no-joy: Coach Saban

Biggest television choice this a.m. after walking Sophia to bus:

  • watching Jim Cramer, 8:00 - 9:00 a.m.
  • watching sports-talk television dissect Alabama

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Back to the Bakken

Bismarck: link here --  operator of a pipeline slated to transport carbon dioxide into North Dakota for disposal intends to pick up emissions captured from an ammonia plant planned for Grand Forks.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3211556754

Tuesday, January 11, 2022: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year

  • 37129, conf, Hess, BL-Frisinger-156-95-2833H-3,

RBN Energy: are "green" and "blue" ammonia the shipping fuels of the future? Part 3. Archived.

The international shipping industry’s push to significantly reduce its carbon footprint over the next three decades is raising an obvious question: Is there a zero- or low-carbon bunker fuel that meets all of the industry’s basic criteria — things like availability, safety, and relative economy, not to mention sufficient on-board energy to transport massive, city-block-sized vessels thousands of miles at a clip. There is no clear answer yet, but there is a lot of talk about ammonia, or more specifically ammonia produced in a way that either generates no carbon dioxide (CO2) or that captures and sequesters much of the CO2 that is generated during production. But several major challenges must be met before “green” and “blue” ammonia can lay claim to even a small slice of the bunkers market, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.