Tuesday, September 24, 2019

China's Crude Oil Inventories -- About 80 Days' Supply -- About 800 Million Bbls -- September 24, 2019

From twitter:

Montessori Kindergarten

Unposed / candid:

See first comment regarding photo above.

This is the Montessori method in one photo.

The footprint / size of the classroom is a standard-size classroom. There are probably 12 students in this class. Sophia, at age 5, is the oldest. Most are three and four years old. This teacher has no aides. That means the other students, three and four years old, are engaged in activities on their own and are not interfering with others. The teacher takes a specific project to each student and tells them the task, and then leaves them to figure it out on their own. She then moves to the next student, and eventually gets back to Sophia to see what progress has been made.

Often they work in pairs or small groups for more difficult tasks so they can help each other out.

It is expected that if a younger child is having difficulty that an older child will help that child out.

They do a lot of pattern recognition stuff so I assume that's what is going on above. They try to use reading, numbers, arithmetic, counting, etc, across all tasks. A lot of time is spent on common household chores: measuring liquid and flour, for example, for cooking/baking in the kitchen. They learn a lot about cleaning up -- note how neat that room is above. Sophia has learned to put everything away when she is done with a task.

The teacher used masking tape to designate this portion of the classroom for certain activities. I don't know what. Perhaps, it is for boundaries to keep the younger children from coming in and bothering the older children. I don't know. But I can guarantee you there is a reason for that huge circular boundary.

In this particular case, the teacher is a middle-age woman from India. Her English is superb but very highly accented. I would imagine many of us here in Texas have a little trouble relating to her, but the children love her. She is absolutely amazing. It took me a few weeks to warm up to her but she has exceeded all my expectations.

For St. Greta — September 24, 2019

Link here.

From the linked article:
I am not sure those numbers are right. I thought the U.S. had reduced CO2 emissions more than the Europeans. But the broader point is undoubtedly well taken. Greta could have ridden a bus across Asia to try to persuade Xi Jinping that his people should stay poor. But what fun would that be? Instead, she sailed to New York on a yacht furnished by the royal family of Monaco to lecture a willing, but entirely insincere, audience at the U.N.
For The Kennedy Klan Ski Photo Album
2019 - 2020

API Weekly Crude Oil -- Up 1.4 Million Bbls -- Notes From All Over -- September 24, 2019

API: weekly US crude oil inventories, change week-over-week, link here -- up 1.4 million bbls.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, relationship, job, or career decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Here's hoping the rooster goes home empty-handed. Sets conditions before he will meet with President Trump. LOL

Midnight Blues, Snowy White


Sophia and I are now collectors: Hot Wheels! I don't know who gets a bigger kick out of these impulse, $1.99, sales -- Sophia or me?

It guarantees her a long line of future boyfriends. LOL.

Her favorite "dinosaur": the pterodactyl. She recognizes them immediately and pronounces "pterodactyls" exactly perfectly. The pterodactyls were on the front cover of this month's issue of Scientific American. 

Active Rigs In North Dakota Drop To 57; WTI Drops Again -- September 24, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5764573370

Five new permits, #37003 - #37007, inclusive:
  • Operators: EOG (3); Crescent Point Energy (2)
  • Fields: Parshall (Mountrail County); Marmon; Blue Ridge
  • Comments:
    • EOG has permits for thee long reach Liberty wells in Parshall oil field, section 11-151-91; see also NDIC Case #27556; see graphics below;
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for two CPEUSC wells; one Elena permit in Marmon oil field, section 26-157-100; and one Chase Douglas permit in Blue Ridge oil field, lot 4 in section 5-159-100
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33877, 350, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 6-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 33881, 149, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 7-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 34309, 22 (no typo), Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 10-29-32-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 33878, 350, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 2-10-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 33876, 291, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 5-20-17-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 33880, 266, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 6-20-17-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 34310, 98, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 9-20-17-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum --;
  • 36025, n/d, Whiting, White 43-33-2TFH, Sanish, starting to produce;
  • 35945, n/d, Whiting, White 43-33-H, Sanish, said to be "flowing," but no production data;
EOG With Permits For Three More Long Reach Liberty Wells

California Directing Utilities To Increase Natural Gas Storage In Preparation For Winter -- September 24, 2019

From Reuters:
  • The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has told Southern California Gas Co (SoCalGas) to take immediate steps to increase the amount of gas it has in storage to maintain reliable service this winter.
  • "To maintain reliable delivery to ... customers during the winter, SoCalGas should take immediate action to increase injections at all available storage facilities," CPUC Executive Director Alice Stebbins said in a letter to SoCalGas made available on Friday.
So many story lines here:
  • wind and solar can't keep up?
  • Navajo Generating Station shutting down?
  • 4wind farms not being asked to store wind energy to prepare for the winter?
  • solar farms not being asked to store solar energy to prepare for the winter?
  • why aren't wind and solar farms being expanded?
  • why aren't Californians being told to go out and buy some wool sweaters?
  • California promoting more CO2 emissions?
  • who absorbs cost of storage? the state or the consumer? the utility? the shareholders?
  • is California going to make it easier for in-state natural gas operators to drill in the state?
By the way, where does California get its natural gas? A quick google search:
Most of the natural gas used in California comes from out-of-state natural gas basins. In 2012, California customers received 35% of their natural gas supply from basins located in the Southwest, 16% from Canada, 40% from the Rocky Mountains, and 9% from basins located within California.
Case closed.

Best Entertainment For The Buck

$8/month for unlimited music through the Amazon Echo, with Alexa as the disc jockey. 

"Snowy White" -- will play for hours with no commercial interruptions.  All voice controls; no remotes of which to keep track. No dials, no switches. Always responsive.

Bakken: Again, Leading The Industry In Innovative Technology -- September 24, 2019

Last week I mentioned "blockchain" in passing.  Don't bother going to that link; there's nothing there about "blockchain." I must have put it there as a spaceholder. I did not understand it but thought it might be important or come up again some day.

I believe I first saw the story which Reuters also picked up:
A group of oil and gas companies has agreed to begin testing blockchain, a technology at the heart of digital currencies, in a bid to lower administrative costs in their field operations while also reducing payment disputes and chances for fraud.
The OOC Oil & Gas Blockchain Consortium, whose members include Chevron Corp, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corp, Equinor and Royal Dutch Shell, among others, has awarded a contract to Data Gumbo to pilot the technology for water handling services in the Bakken shale field in North Dakota.
Blockchain, a technology that underpins bitcoin and other digital currencies, is a distributed ledger that can make and verify transactions on a network in real time, offering the potential to cut costs and lower the risk of fraud.
In the pilot, Data Gumbo’s blockchain technology will be used to automate payments, which are typically handled manually and through third-party reporting that increases costs. The technology could generate about $3.7 billion annually in cost savings for the oil and gas water business, Data Gumbo Chief Executive Andrew Bruce said. 
Water handling? First thought: is CLR one of the companies listed? CLR was not listed in either of the two articles linked. 

It's come up again. I still don't understand it, but at least someone is trying to explain it to me.

The link is here from The Journal of Petroleum Technology.

Archived at this link.

Notes From All Over, September 24, 2019

Powerline with some great stories today.

First, "Memes Only" --  all about youth-against-global warming. Great writing; some great short video clips.

Second, "Climate Sense and Nonsense."

French phrase of the day: from The Telegraph, "donnez-moi un break." Boris Johnson response when asked if he plans to resign after the "Supreme Court" rules shutting down Parliament was illegal. "Donnez-moi un break"? Give me a break. Now, only if we had the French for New Yorkers' "fuhgeddaboudit."

Apple: the story behind Apple's success. From Investopedia.

Apple Store experience: I recently bought the new iPad Pro at Costco but I needed a slip case or magnetic case. I stopped by the Apple Store in Southlake, TX, yesterday, Monday, September 24, 2019, at 2:00 p.m. Monday afternoon. Should have been the slowest day of the week. It was packed. I walked directly to the accessories, grabbed a case (priced at $99), and then walked to the front of the store where one finds a greeter who will take you to a clerk to check out. There are no traditional checkout counters. I was third in line. All I wanted to do was run a credit card through a mobile device, sign for the purchase, and move on. A thirty-second transaction, if that long. The person being served was in final stages of getting iPhone set up; the person ahead of me had a small purchase. But it appeared the iPhone customer ran into a glitch. I could see this was not going to be as quick as one would expect. So, I put the case back, and left. I can always buy on line from Amazon.

Amazon experience: at home I was able to compare cases for the new iPad Pro. Since the iPad Pro stays home and does not go outside the house, the Apple case was way more than I needed. I ordered a magnetic cover for $18 from Amazon. It will be here tomorrow.

The Market


Later, 12:36 p.m. CT: wow, this is so cool. Earlier this morning I was looking for something to buy but everything was too expensive. Now with the market tumbling 200 points on "impeachment," everything is on sale. And, yes, I'm buying. Either today or tomorrow. What am I buying? Dividend-paying stocks.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or whet you think you may have possibly read here.

WTI: continues to slip back to pre-attack prices. Trading at $57.69.

All major indices green, but not particularly exciting. Dow still trading below 27,000.
  • D: up a bit
  • BHK: up nicely, up 1.5%
  • SRE: extends its recent run; up another 1.6%; 50 cents from an all-time high; pays 2.73%
  • BRK-B: green, but flat
  • UNP: up nicely; up over slightly 1%
  • I assume all oil E&P companies are down today with WTI pulling back, so I will check only one, COP: yup, down 1.4%
  • what about refineries? 
    • MPC: down slightly
    • VLO: down 1.5%
  • EW: up very slightly but better than the alternative
  • AAPL: continues its recent run; up another 1%
  • ENB: up slightly
  • EPD: down as much as ENP is up
  • KMI: down a very little bit
Bernie's Wealth Tax

And this is radical?

Under his plan, the Sanders campaign said it would levy these taxes on married couples:
  • 1 percent on married couples with a net worth above $32 million (meaning a couple worth $32.5 million would pay $5,000 annually in taxes)  -- see first comment. Someone noted that 1% of $32.5 million does not equal $,5000. I did not do the math; it came from Bernie's plans. Either Bernie can't do the math or there are deductions, credits, etc). [The riddle has been solved. The first $32 million is exempt from the wealth tax. At $32.5 million, $500,000 is subject to 1% wealth tax, or 1% x $500,000 = $5,000. I can't believe I missed that. Thank you for the reader figuring out something pretty simple in hindsight.]
  • 2 percent on those worth $50 million to $250 million
  • 3 percent on $250 million to $500 million
  • 4 percent on $500 million to $1 billion 
  • 5 percent on $1 billion to $2.5 billion 
  • 6 percent from $2.5 billion to $5 billion 
  • 7 percent from $5 billion to $10 billion 
  • 8 percent on wealth over $10 billion 
  • For individuals, all of the brackets would be cut in half
So, a couple worth $32.5 million would pay an extra $5,000 annually (see note above, and first comment). And this is radical? I loath "tax and spend" but I can't get excited about this.

8% on $10 billion = less than a million dollars in extra taxes. By the way, life insurance companies typically use 8% annually as expected investment income.

By the way, speaking of politics, two bits of news, both involving Pocahontas.

First, as I've said many, many times, as soon as Pocahontas moves out front, the Hillary knives will come out. Yesterday it was reported that Pocahontas is now ahead of Bernie in many key states. And, yesterday, Hillary announced a new "listening tour." Coincidence? I think not.

Second, all those stories about Pocahontas surging and overtaking Biden. RealClearPolitics  doesn't not show that at all. Yes, Pocahontas may be ahead in some key states (Iowa, for example) but overall, she has slipped, Biden has gained, and the spread between the two has actually widened a bit. The numbers are not statistically significantly different from recent polls, but it sort of puts a kabosh on all those stories that it is Warren's nomination to lose, and that Biden has already run out of energy.

By the way, apparently, according to one story, Tom Steyer qualified for the next debate (October0 but there's no way he will qualify for the November debate unless hits a home run in October. Possible, I suppose.

Screenshot of the Bernie Sanders "wealth tax" from the source:

Energy Notes From All Over -- September 24, 2019

Global consumers want "pure Permian" -- from Reuters --
Decades ago, a distiller in Scotland discovered the marketing power of “single malt” whisky, untouched by blending - a technique now being embraced by sellers of Texas crude oil.
The United States is selling more oil overseas than ever, and refiners in Europe and Asia are scrutinizing the quality of that oil after some shipments of U.S. crude contained impurities or contaminants that made it difficult for overseas refiners to process. Two U.S. shipments were even refused by South Korea last year.
Overseas buyers are demanding barrels that travel directly from wells to export terminals with little blending, to minimize problems introduced when crude passes multiple transport systems.
Like that single malt Scotch, the biggest sellers of U.S. crude are touting so-called “neat” barrels, delivered direct from the shale patch to the Gulf, as a way of boosting the allure of the country’s flagship Midland, Texas crude.

Fracking making West Virginia great, from Rigzone:
As it turns out, Pennsylvania is not the only Marcellus shale state with amazing production results.
Long a mainstay of U.S. coal production, neighbor West Virginia has quickly become the 7th largest U.S. natural gas producer.
Since the shale revolution took flight in 2008, gas output in the state has boomed more than sevenfold to 1.8 Tcf in 2018. West Virginia’s gas production has reached a record for 10 straight years and now accounts for 5-6 percent of total U.S. output. Ranked fourth nationally, West Virginia today holds around 35 Tcf of proven gas reserves.
Overlying the Utica play as well, shale now accounts for 95 percent of West Virginia’s gas output. In particular, two of the state’s largest producers, Southwestern Energy and EQT, have impressively responded to a lower priced environment in the shale-era by deploying constantly evolving technologies and operational efficiencies.  
New pipelines have come online to ship West Virginia’s gas to markets in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Canada, and the Gulf Coast. The state now has over 4,000 miles of interstate and intrastate gas pipelines. Per EIA, West Virginia has 31 underground natural gas storage fields that have a storage capacity of 535 Bcf that accounts for almost 6 percent of the nation’s total. The proximity of this gas to high demand markets makes West Virginia a key supplier to surrounding areas during the winter months when usage peaks 40-60 percent.
Indeed, West Virginia still gets 90-95 percent of its electricity generation from coal, with only 2 percent coming from gas. This is in contrast to fellow Appalachian shale giants Ohio and Pennsylvania, two longtime coal states that seek to displace with more gas. This lower domestic reliance on gas will allow West Virginia to remain critical in supplying gas to other states and even LNG export facilities to nations abroad.
Hess - peak oil? What peak oil? CEO announces another oil discovery offshore Guyana at Tripletail. Press release
“Tripletail is the 14th discovery on the Stabroek Block and further underpins the Turbot area as a major development hub,” said CEO John Hess. “The discovery adds to the previously announced gross discovered recoverable resource estimate of more than 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent on the Stabroek Block, with multibillion barrels of future exploration potential remaining.”
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have actually rad here.

Oil companies recommended by US News, similar to Kiplinger the other day. Link here: Cabot Oil & Gas Corp; COP; EOG; KMI; MPC; OXY; Pioneer Natural Resources; Valero Energy Corp.
It appears the writer of this article may not be as smart as one might think. It appears the writer posted the share price for MRO rather than MPC. He has the target price of MPC at $16/share. MPC is currently trading for $56/share. MRO is trading for $13/share.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; ND Rigs Below 60; And WTI At $58 -- September 24, 2019

Flashback, three years ago: the Bakken oil production decline officially begins. From S&P Global Insight, February 19, 2016
For months, analysts have said that reports of the death of the Bakken oil boom have been greatly exaggerated.
But the long-awaited drop in Bakken production may have officially begun, as data released by North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources this week shows.
Daily oil production averaged just over 1.15 million b/d in December, down 29,506 b/d, or 2.5%, from the previous month.
It marks the lowest daily production level in the state since August 2014 and the first real downturn in statewide oil supply caused by the persistent dip in prices.
Back To The Present

Three new "technologies" in the Bakken, link here:
  • gas lift
  • automated directional drilling
  • re-fracking with new completion strategies
Other data points from same link:
  • more than 60 operators in the Bakken
  • they have moved beyond the phase of establishing position, and we are moving into the phase of optimizing and improving our positions.”
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, September 24, 2019: 61 for the month; 193 for the quarter:
35703, conf, Petroshale, Thunder Cloud 2MBH, 
34824, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-6H,

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5964573370

RBN Energy: the halting progress of US LNG export projects, part 2. Archived.
There’s a tough race underway among U.S. LNG developers jockeying for position in the global LNG market. U.S. supply growth has spurred the development of more than two dozen LNG export projects, the bulk of them along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. But regulatory bottlenecks and deepening oversupply conditions in international markets are creating strong headwinds and slowing the momentum for some of these massive projects, making it harder and harder for them to reach the regulatory and commercial milestones they need to pass before they can progress to the construction phase. That said, several projects have eked out big wins in recent weeks, including Tellurian’s $7.5 billion memorandum of understanding with India’s Petronet LNG Ltd for its Driftwood LNG project, signed just this past weekend, and LNG Ltd.’s 2-MMtpa sales and purchase agreement for its Magnolia LNG, inked early last week. Today, we provide highlights of recent regulatory and commercial developments that are pacing the proposed export capacity additions.