Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Six Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed -- Hess -- May 2, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs60492986186

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Marathon
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Marathon has permits for a 5-well pad in SENW 8-150-93 (unusual location for a pad -- in the middle of the section -- but that's because the site is along the river);
One permit renewed: Whiting renewed a Kostelecky permit in Stark County

Three permits canceled: Bruin canceled three Fort Berthold permits, all in Dunn County

Six producing wells completed:
  • 30147, 1,343, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-2, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --
  • 30149, 1,632, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-4, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --
  • 30150, 1,747, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-5, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --
  • 33628, 1,313, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-96-3625H-11, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --
  • 33629, 1,712, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-96-3625H-10, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --
  • 33630, 1,292, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-96-3625H-9, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum --

Marathon Reports 1Q18 Results -- Will Be Of Interest To Those Following The Bakken -- May 2, 2018

See this link.

From A Reader -- Much Appreciated -- New Record In The Bakken -- May 2, 2018


May 18, 2018: see update here.  

Original Post 

From a reader:
Marathon just reported Q1 2018 results. They say that the Arkin well is the largest TF well in basin history as measured by 30-day IP.

From MRO: 
The Arkin well in Hector set a new Williston Basin Three Forks record delivering a 30-day IP oil rate of 3,040 barrels of oil per day (bopd). 
The Company set two new basin Middle Bakken records in West Myrmidon with average 30-day IP rates of 3,470 bopd from the June and Chauncey wells. 
Two additional West Myrmidon wells that came online late in the quarter, the Mark Middle Bakken well and Wilbur Three Forks well, achieved 24-hour IP rates of 10,875 boed and 7,570 boed, respectively, and are not yet at 30 days of production.

This is really, really cool. I posted the Arkin well:

Embattled -- ETP -- Effectively Ended -- rovEr -- May 2, 2018

From ArgusMedia:
  • ETP's Rover Pipeline
  • FERC: "go for it"
  • approval to reach full flow rates -- effective immediately
  • connects Appalachian shale gas pipelines in West Virginia to markets in Ohio, Michigan, and Ontario, Canada (yes, shipping NG to Canada; who would have thought?)
  • full flows: 3.25 billion cubic feet / day (about a half-million boepd?)
  • comment: pretty cool; making America great again

Random Update Of CLR's Monroe Well In Banks Oil Field -- May 2, 2018

The CLR Monroe wells are tracked here

The well:
March 13, 2018: #30252; after being completed and reported, CLR put it back on conf status; have not seen that before; turned out to be a huge well; 42K in 3/18;
  • 30252, 1,823, CLR, Monroe 9-2H, Banks, t1/18; cum 72K 3/18; 
Full production data to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of Production Data For Three Petro-Hunt Wells In Charlson Oil Field -- May 2, 2018

Look at the recent production of these three wells, tracked elsewhere. None of these three have FracFocus or "sundry form" evidence that they have been re-fracked:
  • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, Charlson, AL,  t11/11; cum 836K 3/18; no evidence this well was re-fracked
  • 27918, 1,167, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1HS, Charlson, Three Forks, 4 sections, 33 stages, 4 million lbs, t12/14; cum 381K 3/18; AL; no evidence this well was re-fracked;
  • 27208, 2,262, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-2HS, Charlson, middle Bakken, 4 sections, 33 stages, 4 million lbs, t12/14; cum 521K 3/18; no evidence this well was fracked;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of An XTO Rink Well In Garden Oil Field -- May 2, 2018

Removing this well from the list of wells that need to be followed:
  • 21786, 1,494, XTO, Rink 12-4ESH, Garden, t4/12; cum 183K 3/18; no evidence this well was ever re-fracked
October 22, 2017: a great well, taken off-line, well of interest; #21786; note huge jump 6/17; and then inactive. Active as of 12/17; nice jump in production 1/18; [21786, API - 33-053-03843 - no evidence that it has been re-fracked but in 6/17 jumped to 24,207 bbls/month].
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Holy Mackerel! Huge Build! US Crude Oil Inventories Posted -- May 2, 2018

EIA's weekly petroleum report:
  • holy mackerel! Inventories increased by 6.2 million bbls; this is huge
  • now, back to 436 million bbls
  • EIA analysis: "in the lower half of the average range for this time of year." Seriously? 
  • refineries operating at 91% of capacity; on low side
  • gasoline/distillate fuel production unchanged week-over-week
  • total gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million bbls; are in the upper half of the average range; and yet, gasoline prices continue to rise; folks anticipate the most expensive driving season in years; can one spell "manipulation"?
WTI after report: unchanged (actually, technical up 0.04%).

Gasoline demand graph posted at the link, unremarkable.

More later. I have to get on the bike and get home. Storm clouds threatening -- I need to beat the huge thunderstorm. 

Riders on the Storm, The Doors 
Polls Vs Reality

This is pretty funny. A poll says 45% of Amazon Prime members will cancel their subscriptions. LOL.

Earlier this year, I got upset with Amazon Prime and canceled my subscription.

First of all, there is no such thing as "canceling" an Amazon Prime subscription. When you notify Amazon that you want to cancel your Amazon Prime subscription, you get no money back. The subscription ends at the end of the 365 days of the subscription. At that point, it is simply not automatically renewed.

And you know what, after your emotions have cooled down, you renew. LOL.

I know. I "canceled." And then renewed.

Still An Existential Crisis For Saudi Arabia -- Budget Based On $88 Oil -- Up From $83 Oil -- May 2, 2018

Gamechanger: Chinese Buying Really, Really Cheap Electricity From Australia Using Bitcoin -- May 2, 2018

See this post from earlier this year:
This was posted on the blog just a few weeks ago:
One bitcoin transaction now uses as much energy as your house in a week -- Motherboard, November 1, 2017. Bitbcoin's surge in price has sent its electricity consumption soaring.

Bitcoin mining guzzles energy -- and its carbon footprint just keeps growing -- Wired, December 6, 2017. Bitcoin is slowing the effort to achieve a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. What’s more, this is just the beginning. Given its rapidly growing climate footprint, bitcoin is a malignant development, and it’s getting worse.
Now this.

Don sent me this link the other day. This is a huge, huge story, but for reasons not mentioned in the article. I will come back to this later, but think about the ramifications of this.
Chinese Bitcoin miners are reopening the Hunter Valley coal power station called Redbank in NSW. They have a deal that gets around our gargantuan, mismanaged grid by buying coal power direct for 8c/kWh, while Australians in the same place pay 28c/kWh.

This is exactly the nightmare the head of the Australian Energy Management Organisation (AEMO) spoke of just last week — that “big players could abandon the grid”. That’s a degenerate spiral leaving a shrinking pool of suckers to pay for the inefficient, bird-killing, blackout prone, witchdoctor grid.

Consumers there pay, on average, $A0.28 ($0.22) per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for electricity. But Hunter Energy, which owns Redbank, are offering the crypto miners electricity at a fraction of the cost. The “first-of-its-kind” deal, as the Age puts it, will see the crypto miners pay only A$0.08 per kWh in the day and A$0.05 per kWh at night. Hunter Energy told the Age that the price is feasible because the electricity produced at the coal power plant would go straight to the crypto miners, bypassing—and thus, presumably, avoiding the costs of using—the grid. (Quartz has reached out to Hunter Energy for a comment.)

This tells everyone all they need to know about “cheap” renewables. Eight cents is the big-commercial retail rate of coal powered reliable electricity in Australia, and anything else is nuts.

The cheap deal will mainly apply to those close to the plant (near Singleton) because building long transmission lines is too expensive. Any day now, the large smelters in NSW will start adding up the cost of either relocating or building a transmission line.

It’s not surprising that this comes from crypto industry first. It must be one of the most transportable high-electricity-need industries there is.

ADP Jobs Report Leaves Obama Apologist Speechless On CNBC -- May 2, 2018


May 5, 2018: translations, huge thanks to a reader
  • you bet your sweet bippy
  • vous pariez votre douce bippy
  • apuesta tu dulce bippy
Original Post

Trans Mountain update today? "You bet your sweet bippy." Waiting for the French translation
“We couldn’t get Northern Gateway done. We couldn’t get Energy East done. We couldn’t get Petronas LNG done, and we are on the verge of not getting Trans Mountain done,” Black said. He noted Ontario imports gas from the United States: “we look like fools.”
Comment: they might be able to add Enbridge Line 3 to the list; and, of course, he forgot the Keystone XL.
Jobs -- ADP employment report -- stunning
  • unemployment remains at 4.1% and yet the number of jobs keeps increasing
  • experts suggest that at a flat unemployment of 4.1%, the maximum increase in payrolls is ... 80,000; maybe, 90,000
  • and, here we are again, for the fifth month in a row, with job gains in the 200,000 range
  • April, 2018: 204,000 against a consensus of 190,000
  • one word: wow
  • even Steve Liesman on CNBC is starting to wonder if he's missing something
  • the Obama apologist on CNBC was speechless 
QEP: loss wider than expected.

EPD: 2018 growth could be larger than originally planned -- Motley Fool.

NFX (Newfield): earnings and revenues beat estimates.

CHK: earnings beat; revenue miss.

ONEOK (OKE): earnings beat; revenues lag.

Energy sector earnings, 1Q18: the first quarter 2018 is the first quarter in many years to be able to compare operators when the cycle starts to turn to the upside; it looks like some operators did very, very well; others, not so well.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Disclaimer: I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors. I often see things that do not exist; I read quickly and miss important points. Sometimes it takes me days (maybe even weeks) to see where I was wrong.

AAPL: from a reader ...
Apple will buyback $100 billion in AAPL shares this year. At $175 per share that would equal 12% of the 5 billion shares. This would buy back approximately 588,000,000 shares.

I don't think many people understand the enormity of a $100bBillion stock buy back. Many, many Fortune 500 companies do not have 588 million shares outstanding worth $100 billion. 
Comment: yes. so many story lines being missed by analyst. I guess they just assume "everyone" knows this stuff. Or they simply realize that no one can really get their arms around these numbers.
Comment, later: the biggest story line -- Warren Buffett buys another 75 million shares of AAPL (or something like that). He now owns about $42 billion worth of AAPL (today's market price) and $0 of IBM.

Back to the Bakken
Where Fracking Is Not A Four-Letter Word

Active rigs:

Active Rigs60492986186

RBN Energy: rig count roars back, and production gains keep truckin'.
For a month now, the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has topped 1,000, the first time that’s happened since the spring of 2015, when the rig count was in the midst of a frightening tailspin — it fell from more than 1,900 in November 2014 to only 400 in May 2016. What a long, strange trip it’s been, not just for the rig-count total but for gains producers have seen in drilling productivity and in crude oil and natural gas production per well. Exploration and production companies are doing far more with less, trimming costs and increasing returns in the Permian, the Marcellus/Utica and other key production basins to levels few would have thought possible a few years ago. Today, we review the key changes we’ve seen in drilling productivity, and what they mean for U.S. E&Ps and midstream companies and the rig count going forward.