Thursday, February 25, 2021

Cleaning Out The In-Box --February 25, 2021

ATT -- Pay-TV: private-equity giant, TPG, to pay $1.8 billion for one-third interest in new DirecTV unit. Link to The WSJA stand-alone company. Data points:
  • ATT has been trying to sell this white elephant for years;
  • ATT paid $66 billion for this albatross in 2015
  • apparently six years later it's being valued at less than $6 billion
  • shares of T pretty much unchanged

Minimum wage: $15 / hour apparently not in the Covid-19 stimulus bill.

Mr Potato Head neutered: now, simply, Potato Head. So, what’s Mrs Potato Head? Later: I'm wrong: the franchise / the box is now called "Potato Head." But the family will still include Mr Potato Head and Mrs Potato Head, Spud, and Yam. Link here.

The Meme For US Oil Companies For 2021: Free Cash Flow (FCF) -- February 25, 2021

FCF is the meme for US oil companies in 2021. 

Another example; note the sources:

The EIA Dashboards, February, 2021

Mano a mano: Bakken wells still exceed the Eagle Ford and Permian for crude oil. The Bakken exceeds the Permian, mana a mano, more than two to one.

EIA dashboards:



Apple News -- February 25, 2021

Portland, OR, next? Link here

Apple today indicated that its retail store at the MacArthur Center shopping mall in Norfolk, Virginia will be permanently closing after over 14 years of business, although an exact closure date has yet to be announced by the company. 
See also.

Texas - 5; California - 1: Target - Apple forming a wonderful future together. Link here.

Target today announced it is building on its long-standing partnership with Apple to include a new "enhanced Apple shopping experience" in its stores across the United States.

  • T2180 (Monticello, MN)
  • T0324 (San Jose, CA)
  • T1397 (Oklahoma City, OK)
  • T2516 (Allen, TX)
  • T1766 (Hurst, TX) -- near Grapevine, TX
  • T1797 (Austin, TX)
  • T1032 (Irving, TX)
  • T1354 (San Antonio, TX)
  • T0687 (Gainesville, FL)
  • T1790 (Orlando, FL)
  • T1820 (Clearwater, FL)
  • T2848 (Miami, FL)
  • T1159 (North Wales, PA)
  • T2764 (Newark, DE)
  • T1266 (Woburn, MA)
  • T1532 (Nashua, NH)
  • T1915 (Latham, NY)

Back to the future: new MacBook Pro models to have HDMI port, SD card reader, and MagSafe (?). Link here

NDIC Daily Activity Report Not Posted Today -- February 25, 2021

Speaking of bonds:

Natural gas fill rate. Link here

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.28
2/25/202102/25/202002/25/201902/25/201802/25/2017
Active Rigs1549665740

No new permits.

EOG 4Q20 Earnings

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Transcripts: link.

Press release: EOG Resources Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Results; Raises Dividend by 10% and Announces 2021 Capital Program Focused on Improving Total Returns; Sets Goal to Achieve Zero Routine Flaring by 2025 and Ambition to Reach Net Zero Scope 1 and 2 GHG Emissions by 2040

From Reuters:

Oil and gas producer EOG Resources Inc on Thursday boosted its annual dividend by 10% after its fourth-quarter adjusted profit rose over 60% from the third, helped by a recent recovery in commodity prices.

Easing of COVID-19 related restrictions has sparked optimism among shale producers after they endured a year of destruction in crude prices and demand. U.S. crude rose to $63.53 on Thursday, its highest since May 2019.

Despite the higher commodity prices, EOG forecast this year's spending to be between $3.7 billion and $4.1 billion and will keep its output flat compared to the fourth-quarter rate of 801,500 barrels of oil-equivalent per day.

EOG's forecast of keeping production and spending flat or lower matches rivals like Diamondback Energy Inc and Occidental Petroleum Corp and highlights a recurring theme in shale that calls for prioritizing balance sheet cleanups above output growth.

"The 2021 capital plan is consistent with the strategy we have followed over the last year of not growing production in an oversupplied market," EOG Chief Executive Officer Bill Thomas said in a statement.

Dividend: annual rate at $1.65. 

From NASDAQ.com:

EOG Resources came out with quarterly earnings of $0.71 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38 per share
This compares to earnings of $1.35 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. 
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 86.84%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas company would post earnings of $0.16 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.43, delivering a surprise of 168.75%.

Idle Rambling -- Mid-Afternoon -- Market Open -- Market Falling -- February 25, 2021

TSLA: Upon hearing the news before the market opened, that Tesla had temporarily shut down its Model 3 line in Fremont, California, I was surprised TSLA did not fall further. I guess it took a few hours for the traders to figure it out. This is bad, bad news, and TSLA investors are finally getting it. As I told a reader:

Yes, this semiconductor shortage is not good. It will shut down assembly lines in all auto factories and all truck factories.

Fortunately the president signed an executive order yesterday to solve this logistics problem. Like the Keystone XL, he now "owns" the semiconductor problem. Let's see if he can solve that problem as quickly as his predecessor solved the vaccine problem. 

TSLA fell more than 6% today, losing more than $44 (market still open at time of posting), and trading below $700. The semiconductor story is really the only story driving TSLA today but there are other headwinds: like lots and lots of competition; being outsold by GM EVs in China; and, solar energy coming under new review following the Texas Freeze.

Tesla, Model 3, Fremont, CA, will shut down for two weeks.

Sophia's Big Furry Friend -- February 25, 2021


Gluten-free doggie treat for Huey?

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- March, 2021

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Three Pages

These are case,s not permits:

  • 28698, NDIC, Eightmile-Bakken; consider appropriate spacing for wells completed in the 2560-acre spacing unit, sections 1/12-152-103 and sections 6/7-152-102; McKenzie, Williams
  • 28699, Petro-Hunt, flaring,
  • 28700, CLR, Phelps Bay and/or Elm Tree-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, section 13-153-95 and section 18-153-94, two wells; McKenzie County
  • 28701, NDIC, plug and abandon #9126, a SWD well;
  • 28702, SureFire Energy LLC, construction of a treatment plant;
  • 28703, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28704, Whiting, commingling,
  • 28705, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken
  • 28706, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken,
  • 38707, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken,
  • 28708, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken,
  • 28709, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken,
  • 28710, Whiting, pooling, Sanish-Bakken,
  • 28711, Whiting, pooling, Big Bend-Bakken;

Thursday, March 25, 2021
Six Pages

These are cases, not permits:

  • 28712, NDIC, shut down Scout Energy, Little Knife-Madison Unit, Dunn County
  • 28713, Resonance Exploration, West Roth-Speafish/Madison pool, establish a 640-acre unit, a multilateral horizontal well not less than 330 fee to the north boundary; E/2 NE/4 and SE/4 of section 35, the W/2 of section 36-163-79, and the N/2 NE/4 of section 2162-79; Bottineau County
  • 28714, Resonance Exploration, South Westhope-Spearfish/Charles pool, establish a 400-acre unit, a multilateral horizontal well not less than 330 fee to the north boundary; SE/4 of section 22, the E/2 NW/4 adn NE/4 of section 27-162-80; Bottineau County
  • 28715, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 27/28/33/34-148-97; two wells; Dunn County;
  • 28716, RimRock Oil & Gas, Moccasin Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-are unit; sections 34/35-148-93; and sectioins 2/3/10/11-147-93; one well; Dunn County
  • 28717, Nine Point Energy, Ft Buford-Bakken, eliminate the 1220 setback rule, authorizing a horizontal well to be drilled 500 feet from the east boundary on an existing 960-acre unit, E/2 and E/2 of sections 26/35-t-153-104, Williams County
  • 28718, Nine Point Energy, Briar Creek-Bakken, one well on an existing 1920-acre unit, sections 5/8/17-152-104, Williams, McKenzie
  • 28719, EOG, Parshall-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 25/36 and E/2 of sections 26/35-151-92; Mountrail
  • 28720, EOG, Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, i) an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; ii) an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Mountrail, McLean
  • 28721, EOG, Alger-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, sections 34/35-157-92 and sections 4/5/9/10/15/16-156-92; multiple wells; Mountrail County
  • 28722, Kraken Oil & Gas, Sanish-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; on ewell; Mountrail;
  • 28723, Kraken Oil & Gas, Robinson Lake and/or Sanish-Bakken pool, i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-154-92; nine wells; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acreunit, sections 24/25/36-154-93 and sections 19/30/31-154-92, one well, Mountrail County
  • 28724, White Butte Oil Operations, Clarks-Creek; flaring;
  • 28725, NP Resources, Beaver Creek-Duperow pool, establish two 320-acre units; one well per unit; Billings County;
  • 28726, NP Resources, Rough Rider-Bakken, four wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie;
  • 28727, NP Resources, Pierre Creek-Bakken, establish one new 1280-acre unit, four wells; McKenzie;
  • 28728, NP Resources, Four Eyes-Bakken; establish one new 1280-acre unit, four wells;
  • 28729, CLR, pooling, Little Knife-Bakken;
  • 28730, Slawson Exploration, risk penalty legalese, file #37918, Big Bend-Bakken, Mountrail;
  • 28731, Slawson Explortion, risk penalty legalese, file #37919, Big Bend-Bakken, Mountrail;

Idle Rambling -- Thursday Morning -- February 25, 2021

Jobless claims: this is interesting, link here, interested. Not interested:

  • weekly jobless claims drop sharply
  • first time claims fell to 730,000, week ended February 20
  • forecast: 845,000
  • a sharp decline from the 841,000 the previous week
  • continuing claims hit a fresh pandemic-era low just above 4.42 million
  • if this is important, why is it important? Because: human nature
    • regardless of what Biden and Fauci say, Americans are more than ready to get back to work; enough of the pandemic, already; we have three vaccines, and more coming; more than enough masks; and ..... summer!

EVs: I do think that within three years we'll start seeing stories about analysts questioning the wisdom of automotive and trucking companies pivoting to EVs. 

EVs may make sense in places like India and China, and perhaps the EU, only because those in power could mandate it, but for the US, EVs simply do not yet make sense. But if they make sense, the margins will be very, very slim and there is going to be a huge amount of competition.

EV trucking may make sense for "last-mile delivery" and for moving cargo from ports to rail, but not for long haul

Plug Power:

  • stock falls
  • much wider-than-expected loss
  • surprisely negative revenue
  • oh-oh
  • link here;
    • a hydrogen fuel cell company
    • earnings / income
    • net loss widened to $476.2 million, or $1.12 / share
      • prior net loss: $18.3 million, or seven cents / share
  • Motley Fool: some years ago said this might be a great company, but it never makes money; I never linked / archived that article
    • revenue:
      • swung to negative $316.3 million
    • prior: a positive $91.7 million
    • consensus: a positive $87.2 million
  • company's comments:
    • results negatively impacted by a previously announced $456 million in costs related to "accelerated vesting of a customer's remaining warrants." Say what?
    • provides upbeat guidance for all of 2021
  • and this is the hydrogen darling of Wall Street
BP: already starting to walk it back; maybe renewables not so hot;

Starting to some backtracking: oil demand won't be wiped out by energy transition; this links back to Tsvetana Paraskova, who writes:

Some, like BP, even say that the world may have already passed peak oil demand. Yet, it is also BP’s chief executive Bernard Looney who said CERAWeek’s India Energy Forum in October that “peaking of oil demand does not mean the end of oil. Oil will be around for a very, very long time.”

Regardless of when peak oil demand occurs, the world will not stop using oil, and any decline will only be very gradual, despite the wishes of environmental activists that Big Oil (and any oil firm) stop pumping oil immediately and leave the world to run on green energy.

The reality is that even the energy transition will need a lot of fossil fuel-powered energy to build out the infrastructure necessary to support a shift to green energy sources, Neal Kimberley, commentator on macroeconomics and financial markets, writes for South China Morning Post.

Throw in the inefficiency and unpredictability of wind and solar power, and the likelihood that battery technology is not going to improve a whole lot, and its likely that not only will we see more demand for oil and natural gas, but also for coal. 

The biggest question: from what will China generate electricity for all those golf carts: nuclear or coal?

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Continues To Move Up; Update On SD AG -- February 25, 2021

See PLUG below. Most important financial news story all day?

Williston, ND: Northeast Truck Reliever Route update; hearings set;

  • route; from 1804 east of Williston, north and then west to US 2 &85 (nine-mile corner, I believe);
  • where it meets up with the Northwest Truck Reliever Route

South Dakota AG, hit deer/man -- victim's eyeglasses found in AG's car;

Tiger Woods: doesn't remember the crash.

SRE earnings: mixed. We'll have to see what investors think, later today.

Tesla:

Gasoline demand:

Texas Freeze:

  • previously posted two weeks this would be forgotten; two months back to normal (not to be taken out of context):
  • Deep Freeze: February 15, 2021 - December 18, 2021
    • "next week": March 1, 2021

Global warming panic? Not so much.


BP: already starting to walk it back; maybe renewables not so hot;

EVs: I think we're going to see the same thing;

  • Legacy companies that are pivoting to all-EVs by 2035 (or sooner) will re-think this strategy;

Robots: now picking fruit;

The market:

First group:

  • 10-Year Treasury: link here. Six more basis points; now at 1.451%.
  • DXY: link here. Down. $89.74.
  • Silver: link  here. Surging. Trading at $28.095.
  • CBOE volatility index: link here. Up strong. Up 7.12%. Now at 22.86.

Second group:

  • 30-Year Treasury: link here. Up 6 basis points; now at 2.306%.

Major indices:

  • Dow down slightly after hitting new highs yesterday
  • NASDAQ still falling

Jobs forecast:

  • 825,000 new claims

Apple: iPhone 13 lineup expected to use Qualcomm's Snapdragon X60 modem with several 5G improvements. Link here.  Apple's announced move from Qualcomm will take a year or so.

Plug Power:

  • stock falls
  • much wider than expected loss
  • surprise negative revenue
  • oh-oh
  • link here;

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.54
2/25/202102/25/202002/25/201902/25/201802/25/2017
Active Rigs1549665740

No wells coming off confidential list. No new wells being reported until Sunday. Then we will see seven.

RBN Energy: natural gas price spike curtails ammonia plants, linking hydrogen and gas markets.

In many ways, the natural gas shortages and price spikes that came with last week’s Deep Freeze had nothing at all to do with hydrogen. There were no “green” hydrogen plants that froze up in the cold, no withdrawals of stored hydrogen into distributed local fuel cells backing the power grid, no shortages of fuel for hydrogen vehicles. 
None of that occurred because hardly any of that infrastructure exists just yet. But that doesn’t mean there was no link between last week’s natural gas market and existing forms of hydrogen production, namely “gray” hydrogen used to produce ammonia, most of which is used in the manufacture of fertilizers, and which makes up about a quarter of the hydrogen market. In fact, there was a strong connection, one that highlights the flexibility of industrial natural gas use during price spikes and possibly exposes a vulnerability in gray hydrogen production. Today, we continue our series on hydrogen with a look at how the ammonia industry responded to the recent spike in natural gas prices.
***************************************
The Market


In my in-box this morning from Yahoo!Finance: VIX -- bullish! Much more upside going forward.

Unfortunately I don't have a link and due to copyright, I can't post it. 

Archived here.