Rick Newman, senior columnist, Yahoo!Finance: gives the Trump economy a B -- after the Trump economy breaks almost every US economy record on jobs, wages, satisfaction, GDP, etc.
Analyst / investment advisor Bernsteinraises AAPL target from $100 to $190 on day that Apple surges 5%, up $10, hitting all-time high, trading at over $200/share.
WSJ reported Rebecca Elliott: on July 30, 2018, noted that
drillers in west Texas were pumping so much oil and gas that pipelines/takeaway
considered more than adequate just a few years ago now are overwhelmed.
Anyone paying attention were aware of this a year ago?
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. Link here. MF revises up global growth forecast helped by Trump tax cuts.
Did hell just freeze over? With regard to taxes and growth, one wonders
if IMF managing director Christine Lagarde needs to be nominated for the
2018 Geico Rock Award. By the way, it appears the IMF is doing what it can to keep revised growth forecast below 4%.
The estimates depend on input/data and analysts can put whatever they
want into the formula; clearly it's in the IMF's interests to keep
estimates below 4%. January 22, 2018. [Later: US GDP surged 4.1% in first estimate of 2Q18 GDP growth.]
The votes are in and it's Robert Rapier based on his astute analysis of Venezuela.
The "Rules Committee" voted unanimously to hold off on any life-time awards. The "Awards Committee" reminds us that the prize for the annual award is a lifetime subscription to the "MillionDollarWay" blog. It should be noted that, in keeping in the spirit of the Geico Rock Award, rules and awards can be changed retroactively.
Noonan: the most idiotic op-ed ever by Peggy. It''s over in the WSJ. A reader sent me the link. In my not-ready-for-prime-time response, about the op-ed I wrote:
In my lifetime, the magic ponies go all the way back to JFK and Ronald Reagan.
I can't go back farther than I have personally experienced because prior to JFK anything I knew about presidents was second hand, from books, etc.
I'm not sure what the difference is between charisma and "magic pony."
Cunningham: op-ed almost as idiotic as Peggy's. Over at oilprice. Cunningham says the oil refiners are trying to get Americans to us more gasoline. Well, duh. That's like saying McDonald's is trying to get Americans to eat more hamburgers.
Estimate: Tesla can deliver 91,085 vehicles, including 61,255 Model 3s in the fourth quarter - up 9% sequentially
Tesla could beat top-line estimates if they can prevent average sales price from slipping more than 4.5%, all else equal
The
Model 3 MR will push ASPs down, but multiple Tesla price increases may
offset those declines, giving Tesla a decent shot of beating analyst
top-line estimates
John Kemp: the Reuters London-based oil analyst will be on vacation for two weeks, and completely off the grid; visiting New Zealand
ConocoPhillips expects its shale production to increase 25% next year even as crude oil prices tumble, proving the industry’s resilience in volatile markets, CEO Ryan Lance tells Bloomberg
The CEO says COP's wells in the Eagle Ford Shale, Permian Basin and Bakken field generate cash when prices hover ~$50/bbl; the company pumped 313K bbl/day from the three regions combined during Q3, or 25% of the company’s global production
Production growth likely "slows down at $50 but I don’t think it stops at $50 and it certainly continues if prices get back to $60," Lance says, adding that skeptics thought shale "wouldn’t last long but it’s here, it’s a huge resource and it’s going to be resilient and long lasting."
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
J & J: I'm not following the market at all right now (and won't until it re-sets and gets back to "normal." Having said that I, this over at the Boston Globe:
Johnson & Johnson shares plunge after report that says it knew about asbestos in its baby powder: Reuters said the company knew for decades that asbestos was in its baby powder. (CNN)
Read the Reuters story here.
If I remember correctly, Jim Cramer was huge "promoter" of J&J. I wonder what he has to say now. I can now put J&J in the same "basket" as Wells Fargo.
September 16, 2018: I may have been wrong in the original post. It was my understanding the PSC was simply asking for a second set of eyes to confirm what they already thought -- but The Oil Patch Hotline appears to say that the case is closed: the PSC does not have jurisdication:
Efforts by environmental groups to put the Meridian Energy Group refinery at Belfield under the jurisdiction of the ND Public Service Commission were thwarted by an administrative law judge.
The judge, Patrick Ward, early in September ruled that a complaint
from the Dakota Resource Council and Environmental Law & Policy
Center be dismissed.
Because Meridian changed its plans to reduce the refining capacity
from 55,000 BOPD to 49,500 BOPD, the PSC no longer has jurisdiction, the
company told Ward.
The ND Dept. of Health had also issued an air quality permit earlier this year for 55,000 BOPD.
“Meridian plans to construct the Davis Refinery 111 as a single phase
with a capacity of 49,500 bpd,” said attorney Lawrence Bender. As a
result, the Davis Refinery is not a "gas or liquid energy conversion
facility", which is subject to the Siting Act under the jurisdiction of
the PSC.
“Meridian is not required to obtain a certificate of site
compatibility for the facility prior to construction, and the PSC cannot
exercise jurisdiction over this matter,” Bender said.
The environmental groups wanted the PSC regulatory authority because
the refinery would impact their “use and enjoyment” of Theodore
Roosevelt National Park, which is only three miles from the refinery.
Why Isn't The Federal Government Stepping In? Price Gouging
The only thing I can figure out: Texas retailers are incredibly fair. Or lots of competition. But if folks are willing to pay $12.95 (and up) for a toy that retails for less than $1.99, don't complain about the price of gasoline. Or the price of Starbucks coffee. Or the price of an iPhone X.
We never saw that under the previous administration and you can argue with me all you want, but we would not have seen this with Hillary or Marco Rubio.
*********************************
Back to Andrew "The US Never Was Great" Cuomo
Based on the public reaction to his comments, it sounds like folks could not understand why Andrew Cuomo would say the "US never was great." Certainly, I could not understand it.
A reader found the answer and here it is.
New York has consistently been rated the least free state of the 57 states in the United States. Link here (this site suggests there are only 50 states despite what President Obama said).
The scathing analysis begins:
New York has been the least free state in the country for a long
time. Economic freedom is the most significant weakness, but the state
has not kept up with the rest of the country on personal freedom either.
The only fiscal policy area where New York is not below average is
the ratio of government to private employment, where the state has
actually improved significantly since the early 2000s. The government
GDP ratio has scarcely fallen over that same time period, suggesting
that New York pairs relatively low government employment with high
salaries and benefits for public employees. New York’s local tax burden
is twice that of the average state: 8.5 percent of income in FY 2015.
This is a dramatic rise from the early 2000s, when it was 7 percent.
However, New Yorkers have ample choice in local government: 2.9
competing jurisdictions per 100 square miles. The state tax burden, at a
projected 6.8 percent of income in FY 2017, is also higher than the
national average. Debt is the highest in the country at 31.2 percent of
income, and liquid assets are less than half that, at 14.2 percent of
income.
New York is also the worst state on regulatory policy, although here
it is at least within striking distance of number 49. Land-use freedom
is very low, primarily because of the economically devastating rent
control law in New York City. Local zoning is actually fairly moderate
compared with surrounding states not named “Pennsylvania.” Renewable
portfolio standards are high. The state enacted a minimum wage in
2013–14 and also has a short-term disability insurance mandate. Cable
and telecommunications are unreformed. Occupational freedom is a bit
subpar, but nurse practitioners did gain some independence in 2013–14.
Insurance freedom is a mixed bag (the state has stayed out of the
Interstate Insurance Product Regulation Compact), but property and
casualty insurers gained some freedom to set rates in 2013–14. The civil
liability system looks poor, but we may underrate it slightly because
of the state’s large legal sector.
With that analysis, no wonder Cuomo feels American has never been great. New York has been dead last for the past sixteen years in personal freedoms. Wow. The past sixteen years.
*************************
Geico Rock Award Nominee For 2018
Francisco Toro of The Washington Post: the collapse of Venezuela doesn't "prove" anything about socialism. Francisco Toro is Chief Content Officer of the Group of 50 and a contributing columnist to Post Opinions.
Link here. Google it if you hit a paywall; easily accessed. From the article:
Since the turn of the century, every big country in
South America except Colombia has elected a socialist president at some
point. Socialists have taken power in South America’s largest economy
(Brazil), in its poorest (Bolivia) and in its most capitalist (Chile).
Socialists have led South America’s most stable country (Uruguay) as
well as its most unstable (Ecuador). Argentina and Peru elected leftists
who, for various reasons, didn’t refer to themselves as socialists —
but certainly governed as such.
Mysteriously,
the supposedly automatic link between socialism and the zombie
apocalypse skipped all of them. Not content with merely not-collapsing, a
number of these countries have thrived.
The writer clearly uses the word "thrived" very, very loosely. Quick, name one country of consequence that has thrived after turning to socialism to solve their problems. The writer leads off with Peru -- I rest my case.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Note: I am posting the AAPL updates for many, many reasons, mostly because the company fascinates me on so many levels. It has nothing to do with AAPL as an investment per se. A new reason: I am getting requests from more readers for Apple updates.
Needham maintains a Buy rating after earnings and raises its Apple target by $10 to $220, a 16% upside to yesterday’s close.
firm says the best way to value Apple is
as an ecosystem with de facto “subscribers” because research indicates
the average iOS consumer stays within that ecosystem for 10 years.
Needham estimates the Apple ecosystem has 823K unique members owning 1.4B active devices.
more action: Monness Crespi raises
from $235 to $275; Citi raises by $20 to $230; Wells Fargo raises to
$210; UBS raises by $5 to $215; Bernstein raises from $100 to $190.
Apple shares hit a new all-time high this morning, touching $199.26. Shares are now up 4.5% to $198.64 with the market cap sitting at $972.33B.
Bernstein: where the h*** has she/he been? Geico Rock Award nominee. Bernstein actually thought AAPL was going to fall to $100/share?
On the other hand, look at Monness Crespi -- up to $275. Say what?
Comment: right now, as things stand, if AAPL goes to $203/share, Apple
has a $1 trillion market cap. Sometimes euphoria drives euphoria.
The first quarters are always best for AAPL (October - December). Most recently, 1Q18, Apple posted earnings of $3.89/share.
After yesterday's earnings report, Apple has earnings of $11.03 for the current/recent twelve months.
If Apple posts earnings of $4.00/share in 1Q19 (last three months of this year; think Hanukkah, December 2 - 10, 2018), then earnings will be for the current/recent twelve months:
4.00 -- estimated 1Q19 (compare with $3.89 1Q18)
2.20 -- estimated 4Q18 (compare with $2.07 4Q17)
2.34 -- 3Q18 (actual)
2.73 -- 2Q18 (actual1
Total: $11.27. Let's call it $11.
Maintaining the same P/E of 20, that translates to a share price of ... let's see ... 20 x $11 = $220.
By the way, no one has commented on the fact that Apple's cash horde dropped ... what was it ... $24 billion? How did that happen? Two words: stock buybacks.
***********************************
My Dad's Reaction To The News ...
... that AAPL hit an all-time high, surged 5%, up over $10, now trading over $200/share.
If AAPL hits $203/share, Apple has a market cap of $1 trillion. Market cap right now, $986 billion.
RIP.
[Note: in the video above, with his left hand, he is asking for others in the room to join in. He didn't want to celebrate alone.]
This is pretty funny. Our dad bought a large number of AAPL shares years ago (a decade ago?) when he thought the company was in groceries. His only "due diligence" for investing: the crawler on CNBC and day-old stock prices, dividends, and P/Es in the business section of the Bismarck Tribune. At the time, he borrowed money against credit card companies that offered huge "loans" with zero interest for six months. He took loan after loan paying off loans before they came due with new credit card offers. He paid off all loans before any interest accrued. And accumulated a lot of AAPL shares in the process.
He was old school, having grown up in the depression, thought fresh fruits were a luxury when growing up in northwest South Dakota ... and then was completely amazed decades later, when he was in his 70's I suppose, that credit card companies would offer him huge amounts of money for "free."
He did not believe in re-balancing his portfolio based on age (the stock / bond ratio as one ages); and, I guess, as he got older, he thought it was less risky to go "all in." LOL.
Our dad probably never heard of Bernstein.
There may be a bit of hyperbole there, but not much.
CAT: beats earning by 24 cents. Shares jump 3.3%, up almost $5/share.Also raising full year guidance. But look at that difference year-over-year -- that's the big story. One quarter ago, $1.35; this year, $2.82. Trump tariffs -- apparently CAT not affected. Tax reform -- probably a huge reason -- what companies are allowed to expense to expense in one year. From alloysilverstein.com:
The new law increases the amount of business property purchases that you can expense each year under Section 179 to $1 million (from $500,000 previously). Normally, spending on business property (machines, computers, vehicles, software, office equipment, etc.) is capitalized and depreciated so that the tax benefit is spread out slowly over several years. Section 179 allows you to get the tax break immediately in the year the property is placed into service.
But it can't be all related to tax reform. Look at sales, especially internationally where tax reform would not have made a difference:
Sales were up 24 percent from a year ago to $14 billion, driven by double-digit growth across all markets.
In
the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for nearly a quarter of
company revenues, equipment sales surged 39 percent from a year ago,
helped by increased construction activity and infrastructure investment
in China. Sales got a lift from a stronger Chinese yuan, as well.
Texas pipelines: bigger oil pipelines are coming to west Texas to ease bottleneck. And with sub-headline Rebecca Elliott is our newest nominee for the Geico Rock Award: drillers are pumping so much oil and gas that pipelines considered more than adequate just a few years ago now are overwhelmed. Say what? That story has to be at least a year old, and now that's a headline over at WSJ.
Texas to 'shatter" oil production; with fewer rigs and workers. No one talks about the Red Queen any more. Over at Rigzone:
Six months ago, Texas was on the cusp of breaking oil production records. In June, crude oil production reached 4.3 million barrels per day, putting Texas on track to “shatter” the previous record of 1.263 billion (sic) barrels in 1972.
“We’re going to blow that record out of the water,” Karr Ingham, Texas oil economist and creator of the Texas Petro Index (TPI), said during a mid-year briefing in Houston July 26. “Both crude and natural gas production will easily set new annual production records in 2018.”
Ingham called the natural gas production “extraordinary” considering
about 92 percent of the active rigs in Texas are drilling for crude oil.
He said natural gas production growth is largely accidental, produced
from wells that are drilled to produce crude oil.
Comment: same thing happened in the Bakken boom: natural gas was an irritating by-product.
Comment: I'm not sure what the writer means by "puts Texas on track to "shatter" the previous record. I would argue that 4.3 million bopd has already "shattered' the previous record of 1.3 million bbls in 1972. So much for "Peak Oil" theory.
**************************************
Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, Monday. As I mentioned over the weekend, I expected 50% to 75% of wells coming off confidential this week to go to DUC status. Today, all four went to DUC status:
Monday, July 30, 2018:
34429, SI/NC, MRO, Otis 11-28TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33393, SI/NC, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HD, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Sunday, July 29, 2018:
34428, SI/NC, MRO, Klaus 11-28H, Bailey, no production data,
33645, SI/NC, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HUL, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Federal regulators are preparing to accelerate their review of a wave of
applications to build new liquefaction plants and LNG export terminals —
most of them sited along the Gulf Coast and scheduled for commercial
start-up in the early 2020s. Only a few of the multibillion-dollar
projects are likely to advance to final investment decisions (FID),
construction and operation, but even they will have profound impacts on
U.S. natural gas production, pipeline flows, and the global LNG market.
Today, we begin a look at projects still awaiting FIDs, their
developers’ efforts to line up Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs), and
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) push to review
project applications in a timely manner.
Before we get to the BIG STORY below, the one thing we can all agree on with regard to the Putin-Trump 2018 Summit: global warming was not on the agenda unless that's what they talked about in their private meeting. My hunch: they talked about their grandchildren.
This is really quite a story. A huge thank you to the reader who alerted me to this story.
For those on the "road to Australia" you don't need to be reminded of the high costs for electricity in Australia -- a month ago electricity surged to $14,000 / MWH -- it's been one of the colder winters ever for Australia. And you don't need to be reminded why the price of electricity has surged. For those not in the loop:
Australia, home of one of the world's greatest reserves of coal and cheap electricity, decided to...
save the world by giving up coal and cutting CO2 emissions from that country, and ....
replace coal with solar, but ...
huge disappointment, and even ...
Elon Musk's batteries couldn't save the day, so ...
Australians are shipping their coal to China (where they have really, really cheap electricity), and ...
the Australians are paying really, really high prices for electricity.
Now, a reader sends me an update ..
the national electric grid throws in the towel; it must have gotten ...
a lot of angry letters from citizens who are going broke paying to save the world, and ...
want it stopped now
the national electric grid (AEMO) says they can't do it ....
it will take decades to transition to solar energy, and ...
it will take billions of dollars for the transition ...
Coal-fired power will be needed for decades to come to keep power
prices down and the lights on as the Australian energy market
transitions to renewables, the Australian Energy Market Operator says.
In a report to be released today, the AEMO says extending the life of coal-fired power stations is the most viable way of keeping energy prices down as the transition takes place.
It also predicts replacing Australia’s existing coal-fired network
would cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s.
AEMO’s analysis says that based on the projected cost, the cheapest
option would be to “retain existing resources for as long as they can be
economically relied on”.
“Over the next 20 years, approximately 30 per cent of the NEM’s
(National Electricity Market’s) existing coal resources will be
approaching the end of their technical lives, and will likely be
retired, which highlights the importance of mitigating premature
retirements as these resources currently provide essential low-cost
energy and system support services required for the safe and secure
operation of the power system,” it says.
In other words, AEMO says that the most viable alternative to save Australia, if not to save the world, is to extend the life of coal-fired power stations while transitioning to solar.
The transition:
will take decades
will cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s
and it still won't work
I think Mr AEMO needs to be fired.
Yes, Mr AEMO is nominated for the 2018 Geico Rock Award.
***************************************
Texas Friendly
I'm sitting in McDonald's tonight blogging while oldest granddaughter is at water polo practice.
It's pretty much empty but the drive-through is busy.
My only two compatriots are/were two homeless men, both clearly schizophrenic.
The first one had appropriate clothes for the 100-degree weather. He did have a plastic bottle of water -- wow, what would we do without plastic? He must have been here for about an hour or so. I wanted to give him money to buy a meal but was concerned that he might take my advances the wrong way. Right, wrong, or indifferent, I left him alone to continue his conversation with his imaginary friend(s).
About forty-five minutes into his visit here, the McDonald's manager walked up to him and very quietly asked him if he could bring him some dinner. The homeless man said "thanks" but declined. He stayed another twenty minutes or so and then departed. The homeless person, not the manager.
Shortly thereafter, one of his imaginary or real friends showed up. Another homeless person and also schizophrenic. He was not appropriately dressed for 100-degree weather. He had on his winter parka and all the stuff one wears with winter parkas -- huge stocking cap, layered clothing, snow boots, etc. And a plastic water bottle. Wow what would we do without plastic?
[I looked outside; the weather appeared not to have changed; it still appeared to be summer.]
The second homeless man used the bathroom but was here only a few minutes. I saw him leave with a huge drink in his hand from McDonald's. I can guarantee you that was gratis from the McDonald's manager.
[Disclaimer: I am assuming the men were homeless; I did not confirm.]
It will never be reported, but I am convinced that McDonald's and plastic water bottles have probably saved more downtrodden souls than all the emergency rooms in this country. I could be wrong. We will never know.
By the way, as long as I've gone down this road this far another story. Many months ago, while at a What-a-Burger, I saw something similar. In fact I may have blogged about it. A homeless person came in and the manager gave the homeless person a full meal. Before leaving, I sought out the manager and gave him a $5-bill (I suppose it was $5; I honestly don't remember the amount) and told him to use the cash for a meal for the next homeless person.
Play it loud, the man in the back said, "everyone attack"; and it turned into a ballroom blitz --
I hope they never ban plastic bottles. I guess if you are an elite you can afford a $30-Yeti thermos. A lot of folks in southern Texas may be alive today because of the ubiquitous plastic water bottle.
Venezuela might have to declare force majeure on its oil exports as production plunges and its ports are unable to ship enough crude.
The ongoing meltdown in Venezuela’s oil sector could tighten the oil market more than expected.
Reuters reported Tuesday that Venezuela is considering declaring force majeure, a legal declaration made in extraordinary circumstances to basically get out of contractual obligations.
In other words, Venezuela’s PDVSA is essentially prepared to say that it can’t supply the oil that it promised.
The utter collapse of the country’s oil production is obviously a big factor in PDVSA’s inability to ship enough oil.
Output is down below 1.5 million barrels per day and falling fast.
But the tanker traffic at a handful of its ports has created unexpected bottlenecks, which have slowed loadings.
Clogged ports are the direct result of the seizure of operations on several Caribbean islands by ConocoPhillips last month. The American oil major sought to enforce an arbitration award, laying claim to a series of storage facilities on the islands of Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba.
I think folks have been suggesting for over a year that the Venezuelan oil industry was headed for a meltdown. What is going on now should hardly be a surprise. Happening faster than expected? It seems like the train wreck has been going on for a year or more.
I suggested yesterday that Venezuela's failure to meet oil contracts might be a bigger story than folks realized seems to be accurate. And yet, to the best of my knowledge, the story was hardly covered on CNBC.
How many years has Venezuela been going down its road of self-destruction? Wasn't Hugo Chavez first elected president in 1998? If so, I guess that would be coming up on 20 years.
It is being reported that Maxine Waters will be giving the Democratic response to the 2018 State of the Union Address. Most likely Maxine will become the face of the state of the Democratic Party.
Rick Newman, senior columnist, Yahoo!Finance: gives the Trump economy a B -- after the Trump economy breaks almost every US economy record on jobs, wages, satisfaction, GDP, etc.
Analyst / investment advisor Bernsteinraises AAPL target from $100 to $190 on day that Apple surges 5%, up $10, hitting all-time high, trading at over $200/share.
WSJ reported Rebecca Elliott: on July 30, 2018, noted that drillers in west Texas are pumping so much oil and gas that pipeline considered more than adequate just a few years ago now are overwhelmed. Anyone paying attention were aware of this a year ago?
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. Link here. MF revises up global growth forecast helped by Trump tax cuts.
Did hell just freeze over? With regard to taxes and growth, one wonders
if IMF managing director Christine Lagarde needs to be nominated for the
2018 Geico Rock Award. By the way, it appears the IMF is doing what it can to keep revised growth forecast below 4%.
The estimates depend on input/data and analysts can put whatever they
want into the formula; clearly it's in the IMF's interests to keep
estimates below 4%. January 22, 2018. [Later: US GDP surged 4.1% in first estimate of 2Q18 GDP growth.]
Frozen: along with buying into "peak oil" under the Obama adminstration, it appears the US Navy also bought into global warming, reading all those stories that the Arctic would be forever open water by now. It is being reported that a "brand-new" US Navy warship is trapped in Canada amid cold and ice. According to the US Navy,
“The temperatures in Montreal and throughout the transit area have been
colder than normal, and included near-record low temperatures, which
created significant and historical conditions in the late December,
early January time frame.”
Note: this is the most bizarre thing. The link to the US Navy warship is a good link. I've tested it several times. But when I try to link to it from the blog, I get a dialogue box that says access to that story "on this server is denied." Curious if anyone else is having that same problem. If access is denied, simply google US Navy warship trapped in Canada.
forecast: earnings to soar to 46 cents vs 4 cents a year ago
in fact: earnings soared to 53 cents, excluding various items
T+2: I don't think I posted it on the blog, but in an e-mail note to a reader, I suggested that states could keep open any national parks, monuments, and museums if they wished. Trump would be very supportive of such action and would, most likely, reimburse the states for costs once the government is back in business. It turns out that Chuck Schumer is doing exactly that: NY state will keep the Statue of Liberty open. I assume we will see a photo op of the senator and some dreamers on Ellis Island, through which thousands of legal immigrants made their way to the US. This is a lot different from the Obama-weaponized shutdown when the president ordered armed guards to keep military veterans from visiting government monuments out in the open with no fences around them. He came across as a very AYM.
Prelude: Angry Young Man, Billy Joel
T+2: after Dow futures being negative overnight and the Dow opening down (slightly), it has now turned the corner, up 23 points. I guess mom-and-pop investors have read Goldman Sachs advice to its millionaire clients.
T+2: IMF revises up global growth forecast helped by Trump tax cuts. Did hell just freeze over? With regard to taxes and growth, one wonders if IMF managing director Christine Lagarde needs to be nominated for the 2018 Geico Rock Award. By the way, it appears the IMF is doing what it can to keep revised growth forecast below 4%. The estimates depend on input/data and analysts can put whatever they want into the formula; clearly it's in the IMF's interests to keep estimates below 4%.
T+3: I did not turn on television / tune into CNBC until just now (10:08 a.m. CT). I see that CNBC continues to try to talk the market down. Good luck with that. I see the Dow is slightly negative. Turning off television now (10:09 a.m. CT).
T+3: radio reports that government may re-open. It came down to this: active duty military or Dreamers? [Update: link here.] If that link doesn't work, try this link. Both are Fox links: the first is a "news" link; the second is a "business" link. Nope, both links are blocked. A Reuters link should work.
