Sunday, February 7, 2021

It Never Quits -- February 7, 2021

Project halted: Judge halts construction on new huge COP project in Alaska. Link here.

A weekend court ruling has temporarily blocked winter construction at a huge ConocoPhillips oil project on Alaska’s North Slope.

U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason issued an order Saturday barring ConocoPhillips from starting planned gravel mining and gravel-road construction at its Willow project. With an estimated 590 million barrels of oil and the potential to produce 160,000 barrels per day, Willow would be the westernmost operating oil field in Arctic Alaska. First oil is planned as early as 2024, according to ConocoPhillips.

Gleason’s injunction came in response to an environmental lawsuit claiming the Trump administration’s Willow approval failed to properly consider wildlife and climate-change impacts. The judge last week rejected environmentalists’ request for a more sweeping injunction. Her new order halts gravel-related work until at least Feb. 20, giving the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals time to weigh in.

But, for oil companies in general, good news? Hedge funds think so.  

The view is a reversal for hedge funds, which shorted the oil sector in the lead-up to global shutdowns, landing energy focused hedge funds gains of 26.8% in 2020, according to data from eVestment. By virtue of their fast-moving strategies, hedge funds are quick to spot new trends.

Global oil benchmark Brent has jumped 59% since early November when news of successful vaccines emerged, after COVID-19 travel curbs and lockdowns last year hammered fuel demand and collapsed oil prices. Last week it hit pre-pandemic levels close to $60 a barrel.

U.S. crude has climbed 54% to around $57 per barrel during the same period.

“By the summer, the vaccine should be widely provided and just in time for summer travel and I think things are going to go gangbusters,” said David D. Tawil, co-founder at New York-based event-driven hedge fund, Maglan Capital, and interim CEO of Centaurus Energy.


Notes From All Over -- Sunday Night Edition -- February 7, 2021

Global warming, study can be found at The Global Warming Policy Foundation, launched by Lord Lawson and Dr Benny Peiser on November 23, 2009, in the House of Lords (London, UK) -- in the run-up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit.

[In the most recent study], Goklany provides a table, setting out all the scaremongering claims made by environmental groups — and then comparing them with observed reality. Only one of the claims stands up, according to the study — weather has been getting slightly warmer:

More hot days and fewer cold days — Yes

Cyclones/hurricanes more intense or frequent — No

Tornadoes increase and become more intense — No

Floods more frequent and more intense — No

Droughts more frequent and intense — No

Area burned by wildfire increasing — No (area peaked in mid-19th century)

Cereal yields decreasing — No (they have tripled since 1961) - discussed on the blog ears ago

Food supplies per capita decreasing — No (increased 31 per cent since 1961)

Land area and beaches shrinking, coral islands submerged — No. (Marginal expansion) -- we talked about this on the blog years ago, also

None of the doom-mongering claims made about a decline in human welfare stands up, either, according to the study.

Powerful Playthings
A Keeper: A Two-Hour On-Line Video


I was so lucky / fortunate some years ago to visit the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles before it was closed for re-modeling and then closed again because of the pandemic. We took a midday break at the collocated fast food hamburger restaurant inside the huge building.

Maybe I'll get back there some day. 

For now The WSJ article: 

The centerpieces of “Supercars,” the Petersen Automotive Museum’s new online video tour of an exhibit that can’t be viewed in person because of Covid-19, are the 1988 Lamborghini Countach 5000QV as well as a stable of Ferraris that defined the category from the 1950s to today. That’s as it should be. Those were the cars whose images adorned the bedroom walls of teenage boys starting in the 1960s and ’70s, usually with a bikini-clad supermodel splayed across the hood. But as this overview makes clear, covering some 30 automobiles spread across the entire 14,000 square feet of the museum’s third floor, there is much more to the history and development of so-called supercars.

Michael Bodell, the museum’s deputy director, is our guide (the show was curated by Exhibitions Director Bryan Stevens ), and he reminds us that these playthings of the uberwealthy and well-connected have a long history. We see the 1913 Mercer Type 35-J Raceabout, which competed in the first Indianapolis 500, and the 1923 Mercedes 28/95 Targa-Florio, its high hood-line hiding what was, at the time, Mercedes’s most powerful automotive engine, adapted from aircraft technology—a 7.2-liter, inline six-cylinder that produced about 95 horsepower. While these cars may not make us think of the Lamborghinis or Ferraris to come, most of America at that time was driving Henry Ford’s boxy Model T, early models of which had 2.9-liter, inline four-cylinder engines that produced only 20 horsepower.

The Art Deco period’s marriage of design and function is clearly evident in the next two vehicles in the virtual tour, the 1933 Duesenberg Model SJ, an ultra-luxurious long-nosed convertible coupe popular with Hollywood celebrities of the day that put out more than 300 horsepower and had a top speed of over 130 miles per hour. While someone may have driven this car that fast, that wasn’t the purpose of buying one. Rather, it was to be seen in it—leaving onlookers agog at the silver-wrapped exhaust manifolds, spoke wheels and the distinctive flying-goddess hood ornament.

Art Deco’s influence is even more evident in the 1938 Delahaye 145 with a custom body by French coachbuilder Henri Chapron. One of four Delahaye Grand Prix cars, it’s really a race car whose bodywork makes it road-worthy and head-turning, with rounded, sculpted fenders, streamlined hood and sloping tail, all in an elegant blue and purple two-tone finish.

Where we really get into modern-day supercars is the 1952 Ferrari 212/225 Inter Spyder Barchetta, originally owned by Henry Ford II ; he took it to his designers, who were inspired to create the 1950s Thunderbirds. One of the few all-original cars in the museum’s collection, it has a staid black finish with white interior and whitewall tires. Its sleek, rounded edges and open cockpit are so far removed from the top-selling American car of 1952, the Buick Roadmaster, that the two shouldn’t be discussed in the same sentence.

Much, much more at the link.

Off The Net -- Going Bicycling With Sophia -- February 7, 2021

When I get back, the PGA tournament will be over. Looks like it won't be Jordan's day.

Will get back before Super Bowl begins. Tampa Bay by 14. [Later: wow, I called that!]

B-52 flyover the big game. Link here. Minot AFB, ND, B-52s during the National Anthem -- I missed it --out biking -- reader sent me the link.

Returned From Biking
Super Bowl: In Progress
7 - 3
Middle of 2nd Quarter

Clearing out the in-box.

  • 13 ways to clean your glass cooktop/stove top that actually work, link here.
  • the earth is warmer because of the pandemic's cleaner air, link here. This will be re-posted as a stand-alone post.
  • huge, this will also be posted elsewhere: XLNX will supply chips to Fjitsu for US 5G, link here.
  • speaking of which, what else is going on with XLNX? Hint: huge!
    • Xlinx 3Q20 earnings and revenues top estimates, over the last four quarters, Xilinx has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times; link here.
    • AMD loses market share to Intel, link here;
  • the battery is so ready to power the world, The WSJ, so full of hot air, link here.
  • Axios calls it a "scoop." Hardly. White House convening NSC to talk Iran, link here.
  • New England burning through oil, flashback, previously posted, link here.
  • oh, oh, link here.
  • electricity prices will surge under Biden; already going up because of the "wasteful, duplicative solar and wind in our grid"; we see that in New England;
  • previously posted, Aramco's new stock offering looks doomed from the start, Simon Watkins, link here.
  • speaks volumes, huge number of oil supertankers are pointing at China's ports, Bloomberg, link here

At the half: 21 - 6. 

The Sports Page


  • google homophobic slur, Ralph Lauren: during telecast today, not mentioned; in fact, I haven't heard this story mentioned once by announcers or analysts, although I could have missed it; only thing we heard every time the golfer was featured: his 89-year-old grandfather died overnight; but nothing about the homophobic slur, Ralph Lauren;
  • shadow thrown over another golfer from a non-event one week earlier; as recently as yesterday over at Saudi Invitational; even the rules officials said there was no infraction; mixed views;
  • the on-air analyst apparently did not get the memo that the "embedded ball rule" had changed;
  • color me: not impressed


  • bigger story than the embedded ball story (PGA) and not a thing said -- until late tonight; and, here; from one of the linked stories: 
    • "Incidentally, this is not the first time Reid has got into trouble with the law. In 2008, he pleaded guilty to DUI as well. The year before that, Reid was sentenced to 8 to 23 months in prison for flashing a gun at a motorist." Incidentally? Say what? "Incidentally."
    • so, jail time on at least two occasions? 



Sunday night:

  • Dow futures: trending up all evening; at 7:37 p.m. CT, up 120 points;
  • S&P 500 futures: up 20 points
  • NASDAQ futures: up 90 points

The Weight:


New administration:

  • nothing really, really bad has happened yet
    • I'm surprised Iran is so quiet; and North Korea?
  • nothing unexpected;
  • stimulus checks going out; Bernie the socialist wants "everyone" to get one -- even the rich -- at east that's how I read the headline:

Pardon the interruption:

  • one day closer to crawdad season;
  • in the Super Bowl, if there was a turning point it was the Mahomes' sack mid-third quarter;



  • they say WTI is trading "the dollar." Probably, but I'm not so sure;
    • the headline about all those tankers headed to China speaks volumes; China wasn't buying just when oil was cheap;
  • say what you want, but Covid-19 vaccinations are moving along much better than some expected
    • not yet averaging two million vaccinations/day but trending toward two million jabs/pokes per day
    • new vaccines coming along
  • if so, "risk off"
  • I don't think I've been inside a restaurant since last March, 2020 -- seriously -- yesterday after rock climbing Sophia and her dad took me to Pantera Break -- delightful experience; bodes well;
  • big story is still the semiconductor chip shortage;
  • Hyundai/Kia: don't talk "out of school"; Apple is super-secretive -- two hours ago, Hyundai,Kia reporting they are not in talks with Apple;
  • most exciting marque right now: Daimler. Look at these preliminary numbers

From above:

  • electricity prices will surge under Biden; already going up because of the "wasteful, duplicative solar and wind in our grid"; we see that in New England; need a visual?

Initial Production For The Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 7, 2021

The wells:

  • 37555, conf, CLR, Norway 11-5, Fancy Buttes, no production data,
  • 32853, conf, BR, Remington 1B MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 37554, conf, CLR, Norway 10-5HSL1, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  • 36475, conf, CLR, Jack 5-4H1, Murphy Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36732, conf, CLR, Vardon 8-14H2, Siverston,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 37067, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-15409401003H-10, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36811, conf, Hess, IT-Jenson-158-94-0805H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 7, 2021

Monday, February 15, 2021:

  • 37555, conf, CLR, Norway 11-5,
  • 32853, conf, BR, Remington 1B MBH,

Sunday, February 14, 2021:

  • 37554, conf, CLR, Norway 10-5HSL1,

Saturday, February 13, 2021:

  • None.

Friday, February 12, 2021:

  • 36475, conf, CLR, Jack 5-4H1,

Thursday, February 11, 2021:

  • None.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021:

  • 36732, conf, CLR, Vardon 8-14H2,

Tuesday, February 9, 2021:

  • None.
Monday, February 8, 2021: 5 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 38 for the year.
  • 37067, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-15409401003H-10,
  • 36811, conf, Hess, IT-Jenson-158-94-0805H-1,

Sunday, February 7, 2021:

  • None.

Saturday, February 6, 2021:

  • None.

Reality Sucks --- Do We Need To Point Out That It Feels Like -52°F Out There? February 7, 2021

Barron's: Ford Mustang Mach-E -- February 7, 2021

Barron's posted a glowing review of Ford's Mustang Mach-E. Link here. I would have missed it. Sent it to me by a reader. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

1. Elon Musk would be very, very worried -- if Tesla was a car company. It's not.
2. From what I see, Ford is still a car (truck) company.
3. 2021 will be a fascinating year to watch the earnings for Ford. I think earnings still matter for Ford.
4. Earnings for Tesla don't matter. They will matter eventually but not any time soon.
5. If P/Es do matter:
  • Ford's P/E: n/a
  • Tesla's P/E: only 1,300 (LOL)
  • GOOG: 36
The 1Q21 deliveries will be interesting to follow:

It will be interesting to see the head-to-head deliveries, Tesla vs Ford. I think that's a ridiculous metric to follow but that's what the analysts will follow.