Saturday, July 4, 2020

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2020


July 5, 2020: from earlier --

July 5, 2020: Saudi non-oil private sector shrinks again in June -- Reuters. Link here. Data points:
  • non-oil private sector shrank for the fourth straight month in June
  • employment in the private sector fell at the fastest pace since the survey began in August, 2009
  • measures to contain the spread of corona virus continued to hit consumer demane
  • setback for Prince MbS who has put the private sector at the center of reforms aimed at diversifying the kingdom's oil-reliant economy
  • KSA: had the region's highest corona virus figures
  • recently ended a three-month curfew on June 21, 2020
Original Post 

This was just posted earlier today. Link here.

May, 2020, was an interesting month.
  • very, very, low oil prices
  • Prince MbS has two "rice bowls"
    • his country's foreign exchange reserves: in round numbers, about $500 billion
    • the Public Investment Fund (PIF): his goal -- to get it to $2 trillion; in round numbers, currently about $500 billion
  • there was some movement between the two "rice bowls" in May, a "movement" which I did not understand;
    • the kingdom borrowed somewhere between $10 billion and $40 billion to take advantage of cheap global equities (I'm sure the number is well known by others, but I was confused by the various articles on the subject) (see this note)
    • my hunch is that based on lower commodity prices and a cut back in exports, Saudi's foreign exchange reserves were "helped" by this borrowing -- but I could be wrong -- the graph below? It is what it is.

And, Now, For A Musical Interlude

Take Good Care of My Baby, Bobby Vee


I know very little about cricket.

Perhaps a reader can correct me but it appears that a British cricket club has three teams. Each team is informally called an "eleven," for obvious reasons. The two teams that play Saturday are called the "first eleven" and the "second eleven." Meanwhile, a third team is called the "Sunday eleven."

At least that is what it appears to me.

I mention that because tonight, well after midnight, my thoughts turned to my halcyon days in England some years ago. While hiking cross country on the weekend, I would often come upon a cricket match. I would sit, take a breather, and watch for a half hour or so before moving on.

Great memories.

Update On The Bill Sanderson Gas Plant West Of Williston -- July 4, 2020


January 14, 2012: Bill Sanderson completed; ready to go on line.

Original Post 

Link here: plans moving ahead for Bill Sanderson gas plant.

A company that’s building a gas plant to service XTO crude oil production is asking the state for an expedited process for two proposed pipelines that will provide takeaway for the Bill Sanderson Gas Plant in Williams County.
Denver-based OE2 North is proposing to lay two pipelines for the plant that is being built 15 miles west of Williston. One, an 8-inch steel pipeline 1.28 miles in length will carry up to 80,000 barrels per day of NGLs. The other, 4.67-mile, 20-inch steel pipeline will carry up to 250 million cubic feet per day of residue gas. The cost of the two pipelines is an estimated $6 million.
OE2 in its application materials said it will construct both pipelines on privately owned land, for which the company has already acquired rights of way.
The lines will also be co-located for approximately the first mile, at which point the 8-inch NGL line will tie into an existing, third-party pipeline. The second line, a 20-inch residue gas pipeline, will continue another 3.39 miles along existing infrastructure before tying into an existing third-party pipeline.
Above-ground facilities will include a 100- by 100-foot interconnect site at the end of the 8-inch NGL line and a 250- by 250-foot interconnect at the end of the 20-inch residue line, as well as pipeline markers and cathodic test stations along the way.
The lines will not require any compressor stations. Pressure from the associated Bill Sanderson Gas Plant will be adequate for the projected flow rates.
The pipes will be pre-coated with a fusion-bonded epoxy external coating for corrosion protection, and all welds will be nondestructively tested to ensure their structural integrity and compliance with applicable USDOT regulations. Each weld will be externally coated for corrosion resistance.
OE2 hoped to begin construction of the pipelines by July 2020, or after all necessary permits and approvals are in hand. Construction will take about 12 weeks, including backfilling and finish grading.
Much more at the link.

This is a different pipeline discussion than the one at this link.

Back to the Bill Sanderson Gas Processing Plant.
North Dakota natural gas processing plants are tracked here. It appears the Bill Sanderson plant will be the third largest in the Bakken. Hess still has the largest at "425" and Oasis has one at "320."

Age Range Fact-Checked By The NY Times

The Virus That Came Out At Night

Among all the other peculiarities of the corona virus, it appears we have discovered another one. The corona virus apparently is most active at night.

Is it possible the virus is carried by mosquitoes?

The following notice was sent out to all residents by our apartment complex manager this past week. Yes, we have "trash valet / front-door pick-up" service. What a great country.

Government-mandated curfews due to Corona virus -- great excuse to shut down protestors. LOL.

Idle Rambling -- How Corona Virus Changes America -- July 4, 2020


August 16, 2020:

July 16, 2020: cocoon culture

  • forecast: permanent drop in US miles driven could be as high as 10%
  • due to:
    • working from home
    • on-line shopping
  • historically: 17 million autos sold annually
  • going forward: likely to be 16 million autos annually
  • "people will fight very seriously for a million vehicles, especially if sales drop"
July 12, 2020: mass / public transportation takes a holiday. Amtrak announced reduced service some weeks ago (reported previously that daily Amtrak through Williston, ND, will be cut to three days / week due to less demand).
It's being reported that demand for Greyhound bus service is plummeting. Some have attributed lower bus demand due to less illegal immigration. The mayor of Scranton, NY, asked Greyhound to suspend the only bus service that city had with NYC earlier this year. The government and the CDC have done such a good job scaring folks about risk of public transportation, it will now take similar efforts to convince folks it's safe.
Again, those who can afford automobiles will not feel the impact; the poor will be disproportionately affected.
July 9, 2020: Mac sales surge

July 6, 2020:

July 6, 2020:

July 5, 2020: example of how professional team sports will be greatly impacted by the corona virus. MLB, NBA, NFL can announce that they will play this season, but the players may not show up.

Original Post 

After November 4, 2020, "this" all goes away and things return to normal.

But let's say that does not happen.

Let's say things do not return to normal after November 4, 2020.

If one feels strongly that things will not return to normal by November, 2020, then it's time to start thinking about how America changes in the short term and the long term.

For discussion purposes:
  • short term: six months of continued surge in cases; lock downs and threats of lock downs continue; things get worse before they get better; things don't return to normal until July, 2021; 
    • remember, seasonal flu will begin to be reported in late fall, 2020
  • long term: the new normal -- corona virus continues to impact Americans through January, 2022;
First of all:
  • the vaccine -- even if an effective vaccine is announced tomorrow, it won't be accepted by the majority of Americans; many will consider it "more fake news";
  • it might take a third or fourth generation vaccine before the majority of Americans accept it
  • by the time an effective vaccine is announced, many Americans will already have had the natural infection, most of them asymptomatic
    • based on past comments, it's likely that Dr Fauci will say that all Americans need to take the vaccine regardless of history of natural infection
    • this is a Big Pharma position; Bill Gates heavily invested in global vaccine program, for example
  • educated folks won't want to get the vaccine until they know whether they already have natural immunity
  • uneducated folks will think it's a government conspiracy to infect them with a dangerous vaccine
So, back to the discussion. Two scenarios.
  • scenario one, the short term scenario, the optimistic scenario:
    • short term: six months of continued surge in cases; lock downs and threats of lock downs; things return to normal July, 2021
    • right now, Disney theme parks will likely remain closed until 2021;
  • scenario two, the long term scenario, the pessimistic scenario: 
    • long term: the new normal -- corona virus continues to impact Americans through January, 2022
Under both scenarios:
  • professional sports:
    • teams will "play" in front of empty stadiums, stands, arenas
    • television revenue surges 
    • retail around stadiums like Boston's Fenway Park will disappear
    • non-team sports (PGA, NASCAR) relatively easy to re-open
    • team sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) a much bigger unknown
      • a team could be out-of-the-running with one "franchise player" testing positive
      • already many players refusing to play
    • MLS in the US: dead 
    • online ticket outlets like StubHub disappear (?) 
    • NFL salary caps, etc; see this link;
    • NFL farm teams, i.e., college football
      • the NCAA says football will go on as usual; I think some folks doubt that
  • concert events:
    • concert venues on hold for quite some time
    • maybe places like Branson, MO; Las Vegas, recover enough; hard to say
  • education: virtual and home-schooling surges;
    • teachers as wells as parents will  push back on school openings
    • music programs will suffer most; sports programs will suffer;
    • education gap widens between "haves" and "have-nots"
    • "the Detroit" experience; 30% of folks in Detroit do not have internet access at home
    • universities take huge financial hit
      • dormitories
      • television revenue for sports
  • children's nutrition
    • huge hit as schools do not open; 
    • meme: some urban students -- only guaranteed meals -- for some
  • US energy
    • continued glut across the board
    • will gasoline demand start to flatten out?
  • retail:
    • e-commerce surges
    • Amazon could spin off "Amazon Logistics"
    • mom-and-pop restaurants: require major changes; many/most will disappear
      • will start to resemble small, intimate restaurants common in Europe
      • take-out surges, just as take-out is huge in England
    • Starbucks: will re-evaluate need for comprehensive service; if take-out / drive-through only eliminates a lot of "social" issues
    • McDonald's: hard to believe McDonald's would never re-open PlayPlaces but discussion will dominate the board room 
    • bars, taverns: ???
  • commercial retail:
    • rents continue to plummet; already being reported in San Francisco, NYC
    • malls: dead 
    • mall anchor stores: dead
  • film:
    • big screen theaters: their demise?
    • streaming surges
      • Apple TV
      • Netflix
    • home entertainment centers surge in popularity
  • spaceholder
Tea leaves: we may get an early indication of how "corona virus" plays out, sooner than later, perhaps by the end of July -- we will see how governors and citizens respond to massive surge in number of cases being reported.

Comment: most fascinating will be watching public elementary, middle, and perhaps high schools this fall.
At least one reader says schools will open on time, maybe under staggered schedules, but nonetheless, open. I'm not convinced. Schools may re-open but my hunch is that attendance will be well less than anticipated. But, and this is the big "but": the success / failure, if one wants to use those words, may be our first real indication how folks feel about the virus, and even possibly, how they feel politicians and federal/state agencies handled the pandemic. So, we'll see.
The Humor Page

My favorite cartoon from Power Line today:

Week 27: June 28, 2020 -- July 4, 2020

Top story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
Most under-reported story:
  • Seattle chops CHOP;
Smallest story with the biggest headline:

Biggest non-surprise:
Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top ND non-energy story:
  • South Unit visitor center re-opens.
Top ND energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • Mercer County considers wind moratorium;
  • Montana finalizes first set of TENORM disposal rules;
  • Harold Hamm buying up shares of CLR (this is a bigger story than folks realize)
  • Energy Transfer doubles down on ND pipeline expansion; problems in Illinois;
  • Plans moving ahead for Bill Sanderson Gas Plant west of Williston: link here;  
  • Watford City's Mineral Tracker merging with First International Bank & Trust;
  • Theodore Roosevelt National Park reopens South Unit Visitor Center;
  • ATV accident claims life of former county commissioner Roger Chinn
  • COP plans to begin restoring company's curtailed oil production
  • Marcellus gas moving by truck as environmentalists continue to oppose new pipelines;
Advantaged oil:

Almost Every "Monster" Well In The ND Bakken Was Taken Off Line May, 2020, But Some Wells Still Hit Milestone -- July 4, 2020

The wells.

Nice jump in production in a 5-year-old well:
  • 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 773K 4/20; GL; off line as of 11/19; remains off line 2/20; back on line 3/20;  offline 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Goes over 800K:
  • 25647, 110, EOG, Wayzetta 31-3230H, t10/13; cum 800K 5/20; off line 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Should hit 500K later this summer:
  • 20170, 2,939, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-2H, Bear Den, t5/12; cum 495K 5/20; a jump in production, 5/18; off line as of 8/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 2/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Should hit 600K later this summer:
  • 19246, 1,425, WPX/Zenergy, Wells 32-29H/Dakota-3 Wells 32-29H, Reunion Bay, Bakken; t3/11; cum 598K 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Goes over 800K:
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, Oakdale, Bakken, t5/11; cum 803K 5/20; huge jump in production, 4/19; stand-alone post here;
Hits 600K:
  • 18735, 1,936, WPX, State of ND 10-3H, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 599K 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 Hits 600K:
  • 18481, 2,672, Whiting, Niemitalo 12-35H, Sanish, t5/10; cum 604K 5/20; off line since 7/19; back on line 11/19;  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Hits 700K after being off line for a year:
  • 18298, 3,422, Whiting, Kannianen 44-33H, Sanish, t1/10; cum 704K 5/20; off line as of 4/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 4/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Hits 700K with small jump in production in this 10-year-old well:
  • 18200, 1,658, Kraken/Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish field, t9/10; cum 705K 5/20; off line as of 8/18; back on line as of 10/18; off line as of 12/19;back on line 1/20 -- for three days; minimal production; nice production as of 3/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 Hit 880K; scout ticket says still flowing, no pump:
  • 17912, 2,581, Whiting, Sorenson 11-3H, Sanish, t2/10; cum 880K 5/20; went off line as of 4/19; remains off line 10/19; back on line 11/19;  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Will hit one million bbls if back on line in June, 2020:
  • 17222, 1,769, EOG, Austin 18-21H, Parshall, t9/08; cum 999K 4/20; inactive as of 2/16; back on status as of 6/16; off line 5/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Jimmy Johnson Out Of NASCAR Race -- Positive For Corona Virus -- Lots Of Questions -- July 4, 2020

Jimmy Johnson and wife both positive for coronavirus. Completely asymptomatic. Did not say why they were tested. But absolutely asymptomatic.

Ah, here's the answer. Wife says she had "allergy" symptoms. Very, very concerned. Went in to get tested. Positive. And there you have it.

Ultra-careful. Apparently masks and social distancing didn't work. One wonders if they are on hydroxychloroquine? So many questions.

Water Polo