Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Random Update Of Just A Few Wells Drilled/Completed Back In 2010 That Have Gone Over 500K Bbls Cumulative -- November 5, 2019

The wells:
  • 18232, 860, Nichols 10-15H (Hunt), Ross, t1/10; cum 502K 9/19;
  • 18238, 323, Grace 2-11H (Murex), t12/09; cum 527K 9/19;
  • 18209, 1,380, Thomas Patrick 1-12H (Murex), Sanish, t11/09; cum 637K 9/19; 
  • 18298, IA/3,422, Kannianen 44-33H (Whiting); t1/10; cum 701K 4/19; off line since 4/19; 
  • 17080, 2,096, Niemi 44-22H, (Whiting), Sanish; t10/09; cum 526K 9/19;
  • 18213, 3,308, Whiting, Platt 44-28H (Whiting), Sanish , t12/09; cum 567K 9/19;
  •  18190, 463, Armstrong, Laurine Engel 1, conventional, Dickinson, Lodgepole; 61,000 barrels in first five months (at $60 = $3.6 million and this is a conventional well); cum 880K 9/19;
  • 17122, 581, EOG,  Austin 23-32H, 1 sec, Parshall (90,000 bbls in 135 days); t8/09; cum 675K 9/19;
  • 17841, 602, Murex, Clifford Gene 1-12H, 2 sec, Sanish (144K bbls/first 7 months) (don't confuse this with the Gene 1-22H which is operated by Samson - #18009 -- being drilled in February, 2010; off confidential list in July, 2010); t5/09; cum 675K 9/19; (taken off-line in summer, 2012; back on line in 2013) 
  • 18209, 1,380, Murex, Thomas Patrick 1-12H, 2 sec, Sanish (89K bbls/first 91 days), first reported Feb 1, 2010; t11/09; cum 637K 9/19;
  • 18180, 2,561, Slawson, Stallion 1-1-12H, Big Bend (I forgot to report this one earlier in month); t2/10; cum 518K 9/19; 
  • 18109, IA/2,409, Whiting, Tollefson 44-10H, 2 sec, 84k in 108 days, Sanish, t9/09; cum 669K 4/19; off line since 4/19;

Sophia, age 5, in her "Strikers" soccer uniform.

Notes From All Over, The Evening Edition -- November 5, 2019

 FANG: futures show this stock trading down 10%.

Canadian crude oil prices tumbling; Keystone (not the XL) pipeline shutdown due to leak. WSJ update Western Canadian Select (WCS) trades for $22/bbl less than WTI.

It's been worse. One year ago, November, 2018, the discount was an astounding $44.
Shale. "The drawdown is for real this time" -- HFI Research. Archived for future reference. At SeekingAlpha but will probably disappear behind paywall soon. Still using a) conventional oil metrics; b) the Red Queen analogy; and, c) rig counts. No mention of advantaged oil.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Momentum stock: Walgreens Boots Alliance.

ND Supreme Court:

For those interested (I'm note): the link.
Under Trump's watch: the first trade surplus in petroleum in more than forty years helped the US post a lower trade deficit in September compared to August, 2019.

Futures: again, green. Amazing. Two of the three major indices closed higher today; the S&P 500 was down four points.
  • BA: up 2%
Awkward: "The View" co-host Meghan McCain did not appear on set with Jane Fonda. I had forgotten what a/c John McCain was in when he was shot down -- the A4 Skyhawk.

Nothing To Do With Anything -- I Just Felt In The Mood

I'll Play The Blues For You, Joe Bonamassa

It's funny ... when I play The Blues loud and and play it over and over I can take myself back to I-40 from Nashville to Knoxville, June, 1971. 

Reading (and re-reading for the umpteenth time), volume II of The Life of Graham Greene, 1939 - 1955, by Norman Sherry, c. 1994. My edition is signed by the author.

WWII. Cold War. Kim Philby. Vivien. Dorothy. Catherine.

Don't Pull Your Love, Hamilton, Joe Frank, and Reynolds

Unexpected Jump In US Crude Oil Inventories; Five New Permits In North Dakota; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 5, 2019

US crude oil in storage, API "surprise build." It's always a surprise. LOL. A build of 4.26 million bbls; forecast: 1.515 million bbls. WTI not affected.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565553767

Five new permits, #37155 - #37159, inclusive:
  • Operators: MRO (4); North Range Resources
  • Fields: Grassy Butte (McKenzie); Killdeer (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in Killdeer oil field (Lowry/Helseth/Gunvaldson/Gustav); section 9-145-94; Killdeer oil field
    • North Range Resources has a single permit, a Placid permit in Grassy Butte oil field, section 36-146-100;
Two permits renewed:
  • SHD: a Mufasa permit and a Rocky permit, both in McLean County
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35983, 2,543, Bruin, Wm Johnson 157-93-3B-10-4B, 42 stages; 14.5 million lbs; FracFocus does not display data yet, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum 42K after 30 days;
  • 26818, 2,729, Bruin, Wm Johnson 157-93-3B-10-3B, Lone Tree Lake, t9/19; cum 19K after 15 days;
  • 26816, 2,722, Bruin, Wm Johnson 157-93-3B-10-2B, Lone Tree Lake, t9/19; cum 22K after 17 days;
  • 36192, 2,248, Bruin, Wm Johnson 157-93-3B-10-1T, Lone Tree Lake, t8/19; cum 30K after 30 days;
  • 35984, 2,351, Bruin, Wm Helstad 157-99-34C-27-4B, 57 stages; 15.1 million lbs; FracFocus does not display data yet; Ellisville, t9/19; cum 25K after 19  days;
  • 26817, 2,586,  Bruin, Wm Helstad 157-99-34C-27-3B, 57 stages; 15.1 million lbs; FracFocus does not display data yet;, Ellisville, t9/19; cum 35K after 23 days; no data yet for neighboring well #21040, Helstad ....34D-27-1H. 

The XTO Johnsrud Federal Wells In Bear Den

The wells:
  • 29861, 2,661, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14A, Bear Den, t1/16; cum 326K 10/19; most recent, 4,000 bbls/month;
  • 19273, 1,001, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14, Bear Den, t7/11; cum 270K 10/19; most recent, 2,000 bbls/month;
  • 29862, 2,035, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14AXB, Bear Den, t1/16; cum 348K 10/19; off line as of 9/19; back on line 10/19;
  • 30913, 2,453, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14F, Bear Den, t1/16; cum 276K 10/19; off line as of 9/19; appears to be coming back on line 10/19;
  • 17909, 1,528, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14, Bear Den, t7/09; cum 340K 10/19; most recent, 2,300 bbls/month;

  • 29389, 1,045, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14G, Bear Den, t10/15; cum 259K 10/19; most recent, 2,500 bbls/month;
  • 29390, 1,067, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14C, Bear Den, t10/15; cum 376K 10/19; most recent, 3,400 bbls/month;
  • 29391, 1,142, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14H, Bear Den, t11/15; cum 125K 10/19; most recent, 2,500 bbls/month;
  • 29392, 614, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14D, Bear Den, t11/15; cum 35K 10/19; most recent, 5,000 bbls/month;
For newbies:
  • these are very, very good wells
  • the older wells show recurrent examples of increased production when neighboring wells are fracked
  • the dreaded Bakken decline is inconsistent
  • there is no evidence of daughter wells adversely affecting parent wells
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

This Well Is Simply Staggering -- But Not Particularly Unusual For A Bakken Well -- November 5, 2019

The dreaded Bakken decline? 

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

This page will not be updated.

This well's cumulative production has just had a huge jump -- this well is now approaching 600,000 bbls cumulative -- was drilled as recently as 2015.

The well:
  • 29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH, ULW, Pershing, will be shut-in for the reason that the gathering line infrastructure to connect the well does not exist and/or has not been built at this location yet; this well has not been completed and it will be shut-in until the infrastructure is built; t10/15; cum 581K 9/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Production when this well was first drilled/completed back in 2015:

It Appears The P Vance Wells Are Coming Back On Line -- November 5, 2019

This post will not be updated. 

The P Vance wells are tracked here and have all been updated.

I only checked one of these wells at FracFocus and that well was fracked. I assume all of these DUCs have been fracked. These are Whiting/KOG's P Vance well, Vance Federal, Vance wells:
  • 35279, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...
  • 35278, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...  
  • 35277, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance Federal ...
  • 35276, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance Federal ...
  • 35275, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance Federal ...
  • 35274, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance Federal ...
  • 35028, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance Federal ...
  • 35027, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance .... FracFocus ... fracked 8/19/
  • 35026, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...
  • 35025, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...
  • 35024, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...
  • 35023, SI/NC, Whiting, Vance ...

CLR's October, 2019, Presentation Released

CLR: October presentation released. Link here. Highlights, first quick run-through:
  • production:
    • overall:
      • 20% oil growth, y/y -- 198,074 bopd (oil, not oil equivalent)
    • Bakken: 
    • 13% oil growth, y/y 
    • 3Q19: 57 gross operated wells; 2,313 boepd (oil equivalent) average initial rate
  • Bakken: now, "multi-zone development
    • 2,300 boepd average well initial rate
    • 80% oil
    • 2017 and 2018 programs paid out in ~ one year
  • most interesting graphic: average cumulative production per well -- 2017, 2018, and 2019
  • clearly in the manufacturing stage
CLR is now tracked here.

Super-long laterals in the Bakken: Lynn Helms has been talking about extended long laterals. I keep forgetting about them. Need to watch for them. Will try to do better.

Fear Of Heights -- Time For This Market To Slow Down -- Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 5, 2019

Oil: OPEC's world oil outlook -- OPEC's market share will shrink for years amid a flood of US shale supplies; link at Bloomberg; says decline for OPEC oil will slide about 7% over the next four years (through 2024).
The most interesting "thing" about that article: the word "flood." In other news reports, such as The [London] Financial Times, it was "swamps." And then folks wonder why the globalists are supporting Pocahontas who will ban fracking. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: early morning trading -- all major indices hit new all-time intra-day records.

Move east, young man: Californians moving to Texas. From Zerohedge:
Former Californians Richard and Judy Stark had no regrets as they left their Modesto home, towing a U-Haul trailer with their Volkswagen SUV 1,300 miles to Amarillo, Texas. After finding the website Conservative Move, the Starks put their home up for sale around six months ago and bought a newly constructed three-bedroom home in the suburb of McKinney for around $300,000. According to Stark, a similar home in California would cost around twice as much.
Texas: I would not have posted the story above -- the story is well known -- no new news -- but what caught my attention -- the specific location in Texas. McKinney. Fastest growing city in the US? If not, among the top three. The other two would be in Texas, also. Plano and Frisco. They all line-up like a stand-up drilling unit in the Bakken -- all north of Dallas -- walking distance to DFW airport. Truly amazing.

Tea leaves: the tea leaves suggest 2020 will be the do-or-die year for almost all oil companies --
they are all coming off a terrible 2019
  • they started cutting costs in 2019; results will be seen in 2020
  • huge spending in Permian acquisitions some years ago, need to start paying off by 2020 -- that's plenty of time
  • bellwether? OXY
  • US company with most at risk: XOM (see disclaimer above)
OXY: did it hold overnight? Let's check -- mixed -- it was up about $4.50 yesterday on a $44 stock; today it's down 1.42%; down about 63 cents. Overall I would say that's good news for the CEO.

BRK: for the past couple of weeks or so, Warren Buffett has been getting a lot of grief for poor investing. I suppose a lot of folks sold. Today, who wudda thought, on a relatively mixed day, BRK-B is up 1.56%, up $3.41, now trading over $221/share. 

On my radar scope: OXY, ABBV, IMUX. See disclaimer above.

  • Beto dropped out after, "Hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns." 
  • Did Pocahontas make the same mistake with, "Hell, yes, we're going to take away your private health insurance"?
  • politics tracked here, FWIW, but it sure is fascinating 
Predictable as the day is long:
  • Fox News interviewer: "Did you really say you would take away private health insurance?"
  • Pocahontas: "Well, here's the deal ...."
  • won't play in Peoria 
Trump, health care promises to:
  • protect those with pre-existing conditions
  • protect those with pre-existing physicians

Refinery Throughput -- West Coast -- November 5, 2019

Link here.

Global Warming To Hit Most Of The US Next Week -- New Records Could Be Set -- November 5, 2019

Link here.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 5, 2019

Retail wars: apparently Walmart is more than holding its own against Amazon. A bit of fluff, but this article is very interesting:

Amazon just raised the bar by lowering the price -- to zero -- Amazon is eliminating the $14.99 fee for grocery delivery fee to Prime members. That is truly huge. I suspect Prime membership costs will go up this next year, but Prime seems to be an incredibly good value. Eliminating that grocery-delivery fee will wreak havoc in some markets -- although it's offset by perceived "whole paycheck" moniker for Whole Foods. That $14.99 fee is a monthly fee. The #1 item ordered from Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods: bananas.
Walmart grocery delivery fees, the options (google search, November 5, 2019):
  • $9.99 per delivery; or,
  • annual fee: $98 (about the price of a Prime membership which gets you so much more)
  • monthly fee: $12.95
Nacho president: link here. Look at the amount of money spent.

Chinese tariff war winding down? Stories, links everywhere. This, and much more, has already been baked into the market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: more and more stories suggest Trump is stronger than ever in battleground states. The non-stop bickering in Washington has become background noise. Big test for Trump supporters in some states today. Biggest ballot issue in Texas: "bolting" shut the talk of any state income tax. Proposition 4 is badly titled. Vote "FOR" the proposition if against state income tax; vote "AGAINST" the proposition if you favor the idea of a state income tax.

Keystone (not the XL) pipeline remains closed. Crews continue clean-up in northeastern North Dakota. Source of leak not yet found.

Oil inventory report, Z4 Research estimates:
  • US crude oil in storage: up 2.7 million bbls
  • API data out later this afternoon
  • EIA date out tomorrow, Wednedsday
  • after record-setting day yesterday, all major indices in the green in pre-market trading
  • most interesting for me: OXY -- if share prices hold, it speaks volumes for this company
    • says it will reduce CAPEX by 40% and yet production will increase slightly (2%) -- I've seen the same thing across the Bakken; producing more while cutting CAPEX; so we'll see
Oil: OPEC's world oil outlook -- OPEC's market share will shrink for years amid a flood of US shale supplies; link at Bloomberg; says decline for OPEC oil will slide about 7% over the next four years (through 2024).

Active Rigs Slip To 55 In North Dakota; WTI Opens Above $57; Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- November 5, 2019

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, November 5, 2019: 19 for the month; 114 for the quarter:
34721, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 6B, Elidah, huge well; the Mildred Nelson wells are tracked here; one should take a look; incredible;
33963, conf, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, Elm Tree, Hereford Federal wells are tracked here;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs5565553767

RBN Energy: PADD 1 distillate shortage threatens winter price spike. In context of the New York - New Jersey natural gas pipeline this new article is very interesting. Maybe worth archiving.
Refined product supply in Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 1, which comprises Atlantic Coast states from New England to Florida, has been in trouble all year. Maintenance issues beset refineries during the first quarter, and then in June, the region's largest refinery, a 355-Mb/d plant owned by Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES), was shuttered after a fire. The loss of the PES output would've been manageable if imports had taken up the slack. But although gasoline imports increased, distillate shipments have actually been lower than normal since June. As a result, the PADD 1 distillate market has been drawing an average 163 Mb/d from inventory since mid-August, according to weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports, leaving stocks in the region at a 10-year low. That storage deficit versus previous years will increase when the weather turns colder and heating oil demand kicks into high gear. With stocks at historical lows and market prices not attracting new supplies, the shortage may well foreshadow price spikes this winter. A potential strike by unionized workers at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in northern New Jersey could make matters worse. Today, we look at what's behind the PADD 1 distillate shortfall.

Upodate On Propane Shortage -- November 5, 2019


November 9, 2019:

Original Post

Wettest September on record in North Dakota? Propane seems to be the big story in North Dakota right now.

  • today, from Reuters: scramble for propane marks Mother Nature's -- this is not global warming -- latest challenge for US farmers --  what little I know -- this was not supposed to happen with global warming -- that was all about droughts
  • yesterday: propane shortage the latest challenge for farmers; "energy emergency"; but the story is everywhere -- it looks like there are two stories -- first the propane that is needed by farmers to dry their harvest; and the early winters in the upper midwest, to include Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa. One state governor has declared a "propane emergency." Global warming? Hardly. Apparently propane is becoming an issue for Californians affected by the wildfires. 
  • what I find most interesting about this, this shortage was all predicted back as early as July, 2019
  • from two days ago:
Propane, two stories:
  • back in July, 2019, farmers were warned
  • two days ago, propane delivery crisis plagues the midwest
  • do you remember this story, from December, 2013? the US propane shortage
  • from an earlier post, just a couple of days ago -- 
    • RBN Energy: don't bank on a boring propane market this winter.
      U.S. propane production has been on the rise for most of 2019, but propane consumption by steam crackers has been reined in by poor economics, and propane exports have been constrained by export-capacity shortfalls. That’s led to a big buildup in propane inventories, which stand at near-record levels as the market prepares for a winter heating season that is forecasted to be milder than normal. So we’re in for only a modest draw on propane stocks between now and spring, right? Not necessarily. There’s change in the air regarding propane supply, cracker demand and export capacity and, as we learned in the balmy winter of 2016-17, the U.S. propane market isn’t nearly as dependent on the weather as it used to be. Today, we assess recent market developments and explains why a big decline in propane stocks is a real possibility.
      Propane is an NGL purity product that has two primary uses: as a fuel (mostly for heating, but also for cooking and crop drying, and occasionally for cars, trucks and buses) or as a feedstock for petrochemical plants (steam crackers to make ethylene, or propane dehydrogenation -- PDH -- plants to make propylene). Propane also has two primary sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants, the latter of which separate out mixed NGLs from natural gas streams. These mixed NGLs from processing plants (also known as y-grade) then are sent to fractionators, where y-grade is divvied up into what are called “purity” products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The Shale Revolution has enabled the U.S. to produce more than enough propane to meet its own heating and petchem needs, and to become a major exporter of propane.