Thursday, January 7, 2021

The Autos

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

2021 Updates

GM: changes logo from "caps" to 'lower case" to show focus on EVs. Posted January 11, 2021.

Ford: will stop manufacturing in Brazil in 2021 as part of a restructuring plan meant to cut costs and increase efficiency. The company is closing two plants immediately and a third later in the year, affecting about 5,000 workers. Announced/posted January 11, 2021.

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The Autos

Hyundai and Apple partner: link here. Posted: January 10, 2021.

Link here.

General Motors Co. in 2020 dethroned rival Ford Motor Co. in Detroit’s closely watched “truck wars,” securing the top slot in the lucrative market for large pickup trucks.

For the first time since 2015, GM outsold Ford in large pickup trucks, a category that generates the bulk of global profits for each auto maker.

U.S. sales of GM’s two pickup models—the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra—rose 3.9% last year, to 839,691 trucks, even as industrywide sales sank nearly 15% amid disruption from the Covid-19 pandemic. 
Ford’s F Series line, which includes its F-150 truck as well as the larger Super Duty, fell 12%, to 787,422, the company said Wednesday.

The rivalry among GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s Ram brand—which combined dominate the U.S. market for large pickups—has become more intense as that category has grown as a share of the overall vehicle market. 
Large pickups accounted for 16.7% of overall sales last year, up from 12.5% in 2015.

Free For All -- Dead Ducks -- DOA -- January 7, 2021

US scraps legal protections for migratory birds. Link here.  

President Donald Trump's administration has finalized a rule that will allow oil companies, wind farm owners and other industries to kill an unlimited number of migratory birds without facing any federal penalties.

The new rule, published today, would re-interpret the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918...

The rule is one of the last industry-friendly changes to environmental laws the Trump administration is pushing through in its last weeks in office.

Oil producers feel they have been unfairly targeted under the law, since most migratory bird deaths are caused by buildings and electrical lines. Power lines kill more than 31mn birds each year, while oil pits kill 750,000 and wind turbines kill 230,000.

The final rule will not go into effect for 30 days, well after president-elect Joe Biden is sworn into office on 20 January. Biden last month vowed to halt or delay "midnight regulations" that have not already taken effect.

A federal judge last year already threw out the Trump administration's first attempt to re-interpret the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, after finding there was "nothing" in the text of the law to suggest the Trump administration's new interpretation was correct. That could offer grounds for activists to challenge the rule in court. The US Congress could also vote to scrap the rule, under a law named the Congressional Review Act, if there is support from a majority of members in the US Senate and the US House of Representatives.

The outcome of this "rule"? DOA. 

A Closer Look At The MRO Well That Was Reported Today -- January 7, 2021

 In all the "stuff" happening in the last 48 hours, I almost for this one.

This well was reported today:

  • 33945, loc/A, MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, 33-061-04123, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 97K 11/20; fracked 8/26/20- 9/14/20; 8.2 million gallons of water; 76.2% fresh water by mass; 9.3% produced water by mass; 1600-acre spacing; 7&8-151-93, E/2 12-151-94;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20202233192331792706543556414980
    BAKKEN10-20202863483630355281079947730243133
    BAKKEN9-20203812761112610280983

Seven wells on this pad:

  • 21631, IA/1,463, MRO, Waljen USA 43-8, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 467K 1/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 11/20;
  • 33945, see above;
  • 33946, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 69K 11/20;
  • 33947, Prior USA 42-8TFH-2B, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 95K 11/20;
  • 37395, Wallentinson USA 44-8H,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20204444856702
10-20205085151105
9-20202583829722
  • 37403, Standfest USA 42-8H, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20202517330871
10-20205950163257

Apple Earnings On Tap -- It Appears To Be A Moveable Feast -- January 7, 2021

Link here

Bottom line: 1Q21 (October - Dec, 2020, quarter):

  • street consensus: $1.40 earnings per share; $102 billion
  • this particular analyst: $1.43 earnings per share; $104 billion
    • 80 million iPhones; average selling price: $775

Earnings conference, call, live:

  • Wednesday, January 27, 2021
  • 2:00 p.m. PT
  • 5:00 p.m. ET -- after market close;

Excerpts from the linked article:

Wall Street is getting more optimistic about Apple's coming earnings report. 

US sales and delivery times:

One analyst ...  in boosting estimates, [the analyst] points to a combination of better-than-expected unit demand and higher-than-expected average selling prices, as consumer demand trends toward the higher-end Pro and Pro Max versions of the new phone line. He also notes “better services growth,” given better than 30% growth in downloads from the App store. 

.... demand remaining robust in [the December quarter] but also expect upside to sustain in [the March quarter],” given extended lead times for the iPhone 12 Pro and, to a lesser extent, the Pro Max ...

“The iPhone Pro has now been shipping for two and a half months and our analysis suggests lead time remains elevated across each country we track, with the exception of the U.S.,” Daryanani writes. He says Apple is offering same-day delivery on the iPhone Pro in the U.S. with special courier delivery that costs an additional $10, but that standard delivery still requires a 21-day wait, a modest improvement from the 33-day wait at the beginning of December.

China, delivery time:

  • 12 Pro: down from 23 days to 16, but still the longest lead time for any iPhone in history at this point in the initial launch;
  • iPhone 12: shorter delivery times
  • iPhone 12 mini: likewise; shorter delivery times
  • longer delivery time for iPhone 12 Pro suggests a strong mix of higher-priced iPhone 12 Pros

 See appleinsider also


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SRE

On another note, I have no idea why SRE was down significantly today.

This report did not provide any insight to price action today, unless I missed it. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The Murex Sophia Drake "R" Well Released -- January 7, 2021

Updates

April 24, 2021: production profile updated --

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021281922919204111419558195580
BAKKEN1-2021312256822162157021984219840
BAKKEN12-2020312189022135281020156201560
BAKKEN11-2020302156821153386113823138230
BAKKEN10-202010555944472952205419240

 Original Post

I've written about this well many times over the years. I think I will use this post (from June 21, 2020) as the blog where this well and the Amber Renee will be tracked

The well:

  • 36888, drl/A, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 27K 11/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2020302156821153386113823138230
BAKKEN10-202010555944472952205419240

From the file report:
  • spud date: September 28, 2019
  • cease drilling: October 22, 2019
  • total depth: 20,652'
  • middle Bakken
  • curve:
    • begun, 1920 hrs CDT, October 13, 2019
    • landed, 1730 hrs CDT, October 14, 2019
  • lateral
    • top of the target window, 10 feet into the middle of the Bakken:
    • extended 14 feet down in TVD
  • background gas between 22 and 2150 units;

Hess With Four New Permits -- January 7, 2021

Backwardation: I'm hearing that term more often these days. For example from today from another site:
The Brent futures curve has returned to backwardation, the state of the market signaling tighter supplies with prompt prices higher than those further out in time. Backwardation removes the incentives for traders to store oil in floating storage.
For newbies: when it comes to a commodity like crude oil that "should" deplete / become scarcer in the long term --
  • contango is the normal state of affairs: the price of oil should go up in the future, all things being equal, since global oil should deplete over the long term; "contango" -- come tango, come dance with me; a pleasant experience;
  • backwardation: is not the normal state of affairs; oil is getting cheaper in the future, not because there is going to be more oil in the long term, but there are geopolitical, economic, strength of the dollar, chokepoints, manmade, etc., reasons for the price of oil to be going down in the near future; barkwardation -- it even sounds unpleasant;

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$50.83
1/7/202101/07/202001/07/201901/07/201801/07/2017
Active Rigs1156645439

Four new permits:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Dollar Joe
  • Comments:
    • 38060, loc, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-2, Dollar Joe, SESW 21-156-97, 350 FSL 1569 FWL,
    • 38061, loc, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-3, Dollar Joe, SESW 21-156-97, 350 FSL 1536 FWL,
    • 38062, loc, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2932H-3, Dollar Joe, SESW 21-156-97, 350 FSL 1470 FWL,
    • 38063, loc, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2932H-2, Dollar Joe, SESW 21-156-97, 350 FSL 1437 FWL,

Dollar Joe: tracked here but as a rule I no longer update the various fields in the Bakken, Dollar Joe is on the south side of Ray, North Dakota, and northeast of the very interesting Brooklyn oil field. There are only two wells in these drilling units:

  • 20308, 654, Hess, GO-Soine A-156-97-3229H-1, Dollar Joe, t9/11; cum 170K 11/20;
  • 20372, 451, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-3328H-1, Dollar Joe, t10/11; cum 118K 11/20;

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37203, drl/A, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Tami 11-85-157N-99W-LL TFH,
  • 33840, drl/A, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Tami 10-8-5-157N-99W TFH,
  • 33945, loc/A, MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 97K 11/20;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20202233192331792706543556414980
    BAKKEN10-20202863483630355281079947730243133
    BAKKEN9-20203812761112610280983
  • 33946, loc/A, MRO, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 69K 11/20:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20203026173260543828133264316470
    BAKKEN10-20202836216363356071339208357401330
    BAKKEN9-202036379597515657892070341463
  • 36888, drl/A, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 27K 11/20;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-2020302156821153386113823138230
    BAKKEN10-202010555944472952205419240

  • 34256, drl/A, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Tami 3-8-5-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, --
  • 34258, drl/A, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Tami 2-8-5-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, --
  • 34259, drl/A, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Tami 6-8-5-157N-99W--LL TFH, MBH, Lone Tree Lake, --

Seven permits canceled:

  • EOG (5): five Sidonia permits in Mountrail County;
  • NP Resources (2): two20901 Elhorn permits in Billings County;

Why The Market Is Surging -- January 7, 2021

Updates

Later, 4:03 p.m. CT: it will be interesting to see what "Fast Money" (CNBC) panel has to say.

  • tax hike won't come in 2021;
  • short term: rotation in play; somewhat longer term -- "normalized" earnings should suggest caution, but that's a long way out
  • hard-pressed to explain movement today after big move yesterday and then actions in DC later in day;
  • 10-year treasury move; the bond market is moving: concerning; Guy Adami sounds more concerned than usual, and almost angry at times;

Sarepta Therapeutics plunges after disappointing muscular dystrophy treatment; shares off almost 55%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Post

Wow: NASDAQ close closes above 13,000 for first time ever. Dow closes above 31,000 for first time ever. All four major indices close at record highs. Talking head on CNBC at market close says further surge "could be explosive." There is now talk that earnings could come in better than currently expecting.

CNBC talking head suggested to the guest that the huge surge in indices was due to:

  • great  hope
  • rampant inflation

Talking head who advises very, very wealthy and very, very savvy investors:

  • nope: huge amount of money on the sideline; majority of investors still have a lot of money waiting to be invested;
  • folks were holding cash hoping for a greater pullback by now; didn't happen; and these investors knew that what went on in DC yesterday wasn't going to affect Biden's being sworn in on schedule;
    • risk off trading right now
    • $2000 check already baked into market
  • what happens to Trump between now and January 20, 2021, has no material effect on wealthy, savvy inspectors

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Waiting: Micron earnings. Up $2/share at the close. Here they are: the numbers beat expectations. Shares now up 2% after hours.




Natural Gas Fill Rate -- January 7, 2021

Link here.

Meanwhile:


Noticeably missing: to whom she is married:

Another resignation, late evening, January 7, 2021: Secretary of Education, Betsy De Vos.  "There is no mistaking the impact your rhetoric had on the situation, and it is the inflection point for me." -- De Vos in her resignation statement.

Later, 9:49 p.m. CT, January 7, 2021:

Too little, too late
: President Trump concedes to President-elect Joe Biden and condemns the violent supporters who stormed the nation's Capitol Wednesday, January 6, 2021.

Capitol police chief resigning. It's being reported that "despite plenty of warnings of a possible insurrection and ample resources and time to prepare, the Capitol Police planned only for a free speech demonstration Wednesday -- a colossal mistake."

Charging Stations -- January 7, 2020

Link here

How to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure. Start with charging stations. McKinsey.  Archived.

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Reparations

Link here

Connecting the dots, today:


S&P 500 Hits Record High -- January 7, 2021

Considering that AAPL is well off its recent highs, this is quite remarkable. Wow. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Steve Lieman's head must be exploding. 


BRK-B: close to hitting an all-time high. It's not often that this "boring" company moves up this fast. 

Coming after day, this is absolutely amazing. Look at the NASDAQ. 

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North Texas Weather Forcast

Snow over the weekend?


Sports talk: it'a all about the Dallas Cowboys. Wow. Dak can now set his own price. LOL. Even Jerry Jones knows this -- anything Dak wants, he will get. Stephan A's head must be exploding. LOL. #1 team in press exposure. LOL.

Sports talk: right, wrong, or indifferent. The optics in DC yesterday were not good.

Rocking And Rolling -- January 7, 2021

From ZeroHedge yesterday while the US Capitol was being stormed. Rocking and rolling in Damascus:

Two incredible observations to be made about this instrumental. See if you can spot them.

Nel Cimitero Di Tucson, Gianfranco and Gian Piero Reverberi

This might help:

Crazy, Gnarls Barkley

Rocking and rolling in Hollywood: A most interesting interview. Ms Ronstadt comes across as absolutely brilliant. As good as Mr Carson was, he was unable to keep up with her. Of course, had he turned into Dick Cavett at that moment, it would have destroyed the interview. LOL.

Linda Ronstadt, Johnny Carson

Chinese Flu Watch -- January 7, 2021

From The Bismarck Tribune:

Most Egregious Story To Come Out Of Oil Industry In Some Time -- January 7, 2021

From The Bismarck Tribune:

Active Rigs Steady At Eleven; WTI Holds Above $50; One DUC -- January 7, 2021

My hunch: Scott Adams' head is exploding. LOL. Wrong on everything?

Happy days are here again! Wealth inequality is bad. Long live wealth inequality.

Flip-flop: Saudi Arabia surprised everyone by announcing a unilateral cut in production.

Headline: oil market gears up for $9 billion index buying spree

Tens of billions of dollars worth of commodity investments are about to be switched around in a move that’s set to cause a wave of oil-futures buying.

While the move happens every year, crude’s 20% decline in 2020 means that the value of oil index investments has been far below its target for months. As a result, as much as $9 billion of oil contracts could be purchased over the five days of re-balancing that start Friday, according to Citigroup Inc., at a time when the market is already surged to 10-month highs.

The move affects the world’s two biggest commodities indexes -- the S&P GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodities Index. Crude has recovered from its coronavirus-driven rout and so far this year has been benefiting from Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts, a surge of investments to hedge reflation and coronavirus vaccines. Markets are now abuzz with talk of the next tailwind for prices: commodity indexes plowing into another 80 to 100 million barrels of crude futures contracts.

“It’s a big deal,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil market watcher and chief executive officer of Black Gold Investors LLC. “If you start increasing financial length by 80-100 million barrels, you push up the price $2-$3, all other things being equal.”

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Elon Musk: within striking distance of passing Jeff Bezos as the world's richest person. Some data points:

  • for the fully year 2020, Tesla delivered 499,550 vehicles
  • bulls: "pretty impressive" considering how difficult the year has been
  • bears: Tesla's 800% increase in market cap isn't exactly in-line with its 35.9% increase in deliveries (completely missing the point, of course)
  • past predictions:
  • would "comfortably exceed" 500,000 vehicle deliveries in 2020
  • one million robotaxis in operation in 2020

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Brief summary from Tory Newmyer, Wednesday, January 6, 7:21 a.m. CST, link here:.

Pop quiz how bad was 2020 in terms of bankruptcies?

  • most number of bankruptcy filings in 35 years (1985)
  • most number of bankruptcy filings in 10 years (2000)
  • least number of bankruptcy filings in 10 years (2000)
  • least number of bankruptcy filings in 35 years (1985)

Auto sales, 4Q20:

  • Toyota: a 9.4% increase
  • VW: a 9.4% increase
  • GM: a 5.8% increase
  • GM's average transaction price per new vehicle set a full-year record of $39,229 in 2020

Market on Monday -- note this was  from Monday, January 4, 2021, first trading day of the new year:

  • Dow up almost 170 points; or 0.6 percent higher
  • Boeing was the best-performing stock in the Dow; gaining 4.4%
  • Chevron rose 2.7 percent

Factory activity approaches a 2.5 year high.

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Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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New jobless claims: unexpectedly steadied below 800,000.

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Futures: do I need to post the YouTube "Happy Days are here again" again?

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$50.59
1/7/202101/07/202001/07/201901/07/201801/07/2017
Active Rigs1156645439

One well coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, January 7, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 6 for the year.

  • 37457, loc/NC,  Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-7H, 

RBN Energy: the push to expand Canada-to-Gulf-cast crude oil pipeline capacity. Well, this is interesting. It will be interesting how Canada tries to pull this off in a Biden administration. Hope springs eternal. Archived.

The province of Alberta has lifted its cap on crude oil production, oil-sands producers are implementing plans to increase their output through the 2020s, and new pipeline capacity from Western Canada into the central U.S. is being added on the all-important Enbridge Mainline system. With those stars aligning, the next big push by midstream companies will be expanding their ability to move Canadian barrels south to the Cushing hub in Oklahoma, the Patoka hub in Illinois, and refineries and export docks along the Gulf Coast. As a group, these new and expanded lines — plus a major pipe reversal — will represent one of the biggest midstream build-outs in the U.S. of this coming decade. Today, we begin a blog series about these projects and what’s driving their development.