Showing posts with label Permits_2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Permits_2014. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Permitting Stats For Calendar Year 2014 -- North Dakota

I have not cross-checked information from previous posts so I have no idea how accurate this information is. If this information is important to you, go to the source, the NDIC. This data is from my own database and will differ from that of the NDIC. My permits are for oil and gas wells only; the number does not include permits for salt water disposal wells. This number also includes permits that were later canceled. Some permits were canceled in the same calendar year they were issued; others were canceled in a subsequent year. New, almost identical permits, were sometimes issued for earlier canceled permits (due to siting changes, or change in operator, for example). These numbers may not be identical to numbers I have previously posted. I did not cross-check; I simply went back to my original databases.

I also track permitting projections in real time (when I remember).

Total permits by year:
  • 2014: 3,012
  • 2013: 2,671
  • 2012: 2,522
  • 2011: 1,916
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Permitting (2014):

  • December, 2014: 251
  • November, 2014: 235
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • July, 2014: 265
  • June, 2014: 247
Permitting (2013):
  • December, 2013: 227
  • November, 2013: 232
  • October, 2013: 267
  • September, 2013: 287
  • August, 2013: 276 
Permitting (2012):
  • January, 2013: 218 (note the increase)
  • December, 2012: 154 ( significant decrease)
  • November, 2012: 211 (all-time high was 370 in Oct 2012)
  • October, 2012: 370 (all-time high)
  • September, 2012: 273
  • August, 2012: 261

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Terrifying Headline Regarding Texas Oil And Gas Permitting For Month Of November, 2014 -- Rigzone -- December 23, 2014

Reuters over at Rigzone has this terrifying headline: Texas Oil and Gas Drilling Permits Fall 50 Percent in November.

The only thing missing from that headline is an exclamation point. So I will add one and put the headline in bold:
Texas oil and gas drilling permits fall 50 percent in November!
I didn't read the story; I read the first paragraph and part of the second paragraph.

Out of curiosity, I looked back at permitting for the autumn of 2014, 2013, and 2012, in North Dakota (a simple cut and paste from previous posts, taken from the Director's Cuts).  For 2012 I included December and January (2013) for obvious reasons. Data is below. My observations are at the bottom of the post.
Permitting (2014):
  • November, 2014: 235
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • July, 2014: 265
  • June, 2014: 247
Permitting (2013):
  • December, 2013: 227
  • November, 2013: 232
  • October, 2013: 267
  • September, 2013: 287
  • August, 2013: 276 
Permitting (2012):
  • January, 2013: 218 (note the increase)
  • December, 2012: 154 ( significant decrease)
  • November, 2012: 211 (all-time high was 370 in Oct 2012)
  • October, 2012: 370 (all-time high)
  • September, 2012: 273
  • August, 2012: 261
My observations regarding permitting history for North Dakota:
  • October is generally a big month for permitting (preparing for winter work, building pads)
  • the record number of permits was in October, 2012
  • the number of November permits decline significantly from October but back toward the average  
Lynn Helms provided the reason for the historical uptick in October permits (that is not my opinion).  I doubt one can say the same for winter weather in Texas, but I don't know.

There is one more comment that could be made, but I will hold off, see if anyone comes up with the same observation -- it requires some background reading, and connecting some dots that may not be intuitive.

Finally, my database shows 206 permits for the month of December, 2014, through the 23rd. There are probably three more business days for the NDIC. Five new permits/day = 15 + 206 = 221, projected for December 2014.

Incidentally, based on the projection of the number of permits for the calendar year 2014, there was a surge of new permits in the month of December, 2014, for the state of North Dakota.

Up above I mentioned that I could make one more comment regarding North Dakota permitting; actually I can now come up with two more.

I'll probably forget what those two comments are. LOL. We'll see.

Actually a third comment. Whatever.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Quick Note On Permits For 2014 -- November 15, 2014

See this post for background. In that post, earlier in November, North Dakota was on track to issue 3,016 permits.

As of Friday, November 14, 2014, North Dakota is on track to issue 3,034 oil and gas permits this year.

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Really?

This is what POTUS said about the Keystone XL, justifying his decision to kill the project:
"Understand what this project is: It is providing the ability of Canada to pump their oil, send it through our land, down to the Gulf, where it will be sold everywhere else. It doesn't have an impact on US gas prices."
I can't make this stuff up. 

And I used to think some of the questions being asked at the original Bakken discussion group were ...

It never quits, does it? The lunacy.
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." -- commonly attributed to Albert Einstein.
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TrainWreck

We stopped at a sandwich shop on the way home from the swimming meet today. Today's issue of the Ft Worth Star-Telegram was hanging on the bulletin board. The front page, headline story: ObamaCare premiums will go up about 20%, but one might be able to find less expensive policies if one looks around, and switches from their current policy to a new policy. Or so they say. I can't believe that from here on out, folks are going to be looking for new health care policies every year. But if you like the policy you have, you can keep it. For about 20% more.

And people complain about their cable television "premiums" which also seem to go up every year, but only about 3%.

Speaking of ObamaCare, I see the Washington State on-line healthcare exchange "crashed." Send out an S.O.S. 

SOS, ABBA
 
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This Can't Be True!
Fox Business Network anchor Melissa Francis dropped a bombshell on her show Friday, revealing that when she worked at CNBC, she was silenced by management for questioning the math behind ObamaCare on television.
 
In the shocking clip that has picked up major traction on social media, Francis explains that she is not surprised by the lack of media coverage of "Grubergate" because many liberal media outlets are all too happy to help the architects of ObamaCare cover up the truth.

"When I was at CNBC, I pointed out to my viewers that the math of ObamaCare simply didn't work, not the politics, by the way, just the basic math," Francis said.

"And when I did that, I was silenced. I said on the air that you couldn't add millions of people to the system and force insurance companies to cover their preexisting conditions without raising the price on everyone else."

"I pointed out that it couldn't possibly be true that if you like your plan, you can keep it," Francis said. "That was a lie. And in fact, millions of people had their insurance canceled."
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A Note to the Granddaughters

I absolutely love this apartment, 787 square feet, one bedroom, one bath. The apartment is about the size of one of Algore's walk-in closets, I suppose.

It's not as cold in north Texas as it is in North Dakota, but it is cold, and it will freeze tonight, but I work very hard at not turning on the heat. A few minutes ago my wife asked me to get her a comforter -- lying on the sofa, enjoying a DVD together -- I walked over to the bedroom, got the comforter, and brought it out to her. 

I asked my wife how far I would have had to walk had we lived in a McMansion ... down the hall, up the stairs, down the hall, to the master bedroom, and then back....

I absolutely love this apartment, 787 square feet, one bedroom, one bath.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

On Track For More Than 3,000 Oil And Gas Permits -- North Dakota -- November 4, 2014

According to my data base (which could be very, very wrong, but I doubt it), with 2,545 permits to date (November 4, 2014) for oil and gas permits in North Dakota (this does not include salt water disposal well permits or other permits), North Dakota is on track to post 3,016 permits this calendar year (2014).

This compares to 2,241 permits issued by November 4, 2013, for calendar year 2013, which put the state on track for 2,656 permits. Actual number of permits by the end of calendar year 2013, for 2013: 2,671 permits.

For 2012: 2,181 permits; on track for 2,585 permits. Actual number of permits by the end of calendar year 2012, for 2012: 2,521 permits with 144 canceled (perhaps more since earlier calculation).

The numbers may vary from post to post; things change. The Bakken is dynamic. These numbers are for my use only coming from my database which is different than the NDIC database. You should assume the data I post has errors, but not intentional. I simply cannot afford to hire a fact-checker. If this information is important to you, go to the source, the NDIC. I think the NDIC has a disclaimer also.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Projected Permits -- Calendar Year 2014 As Of September 10, 2014

As of September 10, 2014, and the two previous years:

Calendar year, 2014
  • Permits to date: 2,028
  • Projected permits for the year at this point: 2,926
Calendar year, 2013
  • Permits as of September 10, 2013: 1,736
  • Projected permits for the year at this point: 2,505 
Calendar year, 2012
  • Permits as of September 10, 2012: 1,575
  • Projected permits for the year at this point: 2,272 
See tags for previous projections.

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The Wall Street Journal

Captain America lays out the plan for the world's best military to join forces with the rest of the world to destroy ISIL. Apparently, the strongest military in the world "will rely on local forces in Iraq" to destroy ISIL, the same forces that have been so successful to date in holding back ISIL.

West Nile virus slams California; due in part to the severe drought. The risk, of course, is that West Nile virus could jeopardize building the bullet train, just as malaria jeopardized the Panama Canal. Well, maybe that's a stretch.

Looks like Syria used weapons of mass destruction (chlorine) .... we've seen this movie before.

The Ukraine president says that most Russian troops have been withdrawn from eastern Ukraine.

France lowered its growth forecast again and warned it will need more time to bring its public deficit in line with European Union rules. Oh, boy.

Several stories on Scotland going its own way; the vote is September 18, 2014.

Growth in the cost of health care coverage appears to be slowing; perhaps up only 3% this year, pushing the average annual premium for a family plan to just under $17,000. Well, that's good news.

Charles Munger defends Warren's recent deals.

The Los Angeles Times

Top story: Captain America vows to hunt ISIL militants "whever they exist." Except, of course, if they are coming through our southern border, along the Texas, Arizona, California borders. There his OPEN BORDERS policy takes priority, I suppose.

Time for Roger Goodell to be sacked. Like that will happen.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Nineteen (19) New Permits -- North Dakota -- August 5, 2014; North Dakota On Track To Issue Record Number Of Oil & Gas Permits This Calendar Year; Huge Increase Projected

Reporting tomorrow:
  • CNP, forecast 23 cents, before market opens
  • CHK, forecast 44 cents, before market opens
  • DNR, forecast 27 cents; before market opens
  • DVN, forecast $1.40; before market opens 
  • ETP, forecast 64 cents; before market opens 
  • QEP, forecast 33 cents; before market opens 
  • SD, forecast 4 cents; before market opens 
  • RIG, forecast $1.12; before market opens    
North Dakota on track to issue record number of permits: I didn't double-check the numbers but it appears North Dakota is on track to issue a record number of permits this calendar year.
  • In calendar year 2013, on this date, August 5, 1,405 permits had been issued; that put the state on track to issue 2,363 permits for the calendar year, 2013.
  • This year, calendar year 2014, on this date, August 5, 1,709 permits have been issued, which tracks out to 2,875 new permits this calendar year if issued at the same pace.
A projection of 2,875 permits would represent a 22% increase, year over year, over last year's projection at this point in time.

The commission issues permits based to some extent on the perceived ability of the operators to actually get around to drilling these wells. In other words, despite fewer active rigs this year compared to last year, NDIC feels the operators will be able to drill more wells (significantly more, apparently) with fewer rigs due to faster times to total depth; and pad drilling.

Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 26606, 1,013, Newfield, Hoffmann 149-98-11-2-10H, Pembroke, t5/14; cum 19K 6/14;
  • 27237, drl, Slawson, Waterbond 4-27-34TFH, Van Hook, no production data,
  • 27272, 789, WPX, Glenn Fox 13-24HX, Van Hook, t6/14; cum 8K 6/14;
  • 27290, 454, CLR, Volesky 1-23H1, Ukraina, t6/14; cum 7K 6/14;
Active rigs:


8/5/201408/05/201308/05/201208/05/201108/05/2010
Active Rigs193183206183140

Nineteen (19) new permits --
  • Operators: BR (4), XTO (4), EOG (3), Whiting (3), Hess (3), CLR, Stephens Production Company,
  • Fields: Camel Butte (McKenzie), Johnson Corner (McKenzie), Siverston (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Sanish (Mountrail), Juniper (McKenzie), Stony Creek (Williams)
  • Comments: Stephens has a permit for a wildcat in Ward County; this is only the second permit for this company in North Dakota; their first permit/well, a Madison well (#25603) was dry, located about 12 miles north of Minot. This newest permit is for a well about six miles northeast of Minot. [There is also a Stephens Energy Company, LLC, last active in 2010.]
Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at right.

KOG changed the name of three wells:
  • from P Thomas 154-98-14-33-XHX to P Thomas 154-98-14-33-28-XHX
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Other Energy News This Very, Very Busy Reporting Day

The Marcellus hits new record in natural gas production, Obama administration still not capitalizing on it:
  • Natural gas production in the Marcellus region exceeded 15B cf/day in July, the most productive period ever recorded there, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
  • Marcellus, located mostly in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, now accounts for nearly 40% of total U.S. shale gas production, and its rapid growth isn’t expected to ebb soon, the report says.
  • New wells in the region are expected to deliver another 600M cf/day, more than offsetting decline rates, for a net production increase of 247M cf/day.

Friday, May 30, 2014

On Track For 2,800 Permits In 2014; Compare To 2,519 In 2013

Because May 31, 2014, occurs on the weekend, the next permits for this year will be dated June 2, 2014.

As of May 31, for the following years, # of permits to date, and projection of permits for the corresponding year based on that number:
  • 2014: 1,151 permits to date; projected 2,801 permits for calendar year 2014
  • 2013: 1,035 permits to date; projected 2,519 permits for calendar year 2013
  • 2012: 868 permits to date; projected 2,112 permits for calendar year 2012

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Permits -- February, 2014

FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, 2014 (ONE MONTH) 
Note: this was late getting posted; note this is for February, not March.

Active rigs: Averaged about 190 active rigs, many of them drilling saltwater disposal wells.

Permits by operator (selected):
  • American Eagle: 0
  • BR: 14 (up 3 from previous month)
  • CLR: 7 (down from 21 last month)
  • Emerald Oil: 1 (down from 8 last month)
  • EOG: 13 (10 last month)
  • ERF: 0
  • Fidelity: 1 (down from 8 last month)
  • Hess: 18 (down from 24 last month)
  • HRC: 1 (down from 15 last month)
  • KOG: 0 (down from 16)
  • MRO: 1 (down from 9)
  • Murex: 1
  • Newfield: 3 (down from 9)
  • Oasis: 30 (huge increase from 14 last month)
  • OXY USA: 2 (down from 10)
  • Petro-Hunt: 9 (down from 14)
  • QEP: 12
  • Slawson: 5
  • SM Energy: 10
  • Statoil: 4
  • Triangle: 0
  • Whiting: 12 (down from 19)
  • WPX: 2 (down from 7)
  • XTO: 19 (down from 23 last month)
Permits by county (Williams was the big mover in February):
  • Divide: 8 (down from 11)
  • Dunn: 22 (down from 50)
  • McKenzie: 47 (down from 101)
  • Mountrail: 36 (down from 44)
  • Williams: 48 (up from 15)
Permits by field, selected:
  • Alger: 0
  • Banks:0
  • Bear Den: 0
  • Big Bend: 3
  • Blue Buttes: 0
  • Chimney Butte: 0
  • Eagle Nest: 1
  • Elidah:  12
  • Grail:  12
  • Little Knife: 4
  • Parshall: 13
  • Poe:  0
  • Sanish:  6
  • Siverston: 4
Permits for wildcat wells:  2

Permits: 434 -- on track for 2,684 permits for calendar year, which would be a record, but down significantly from projection of 2,990 at end of January.

Disclaimer: summary totals from my personal database; not from NDIC (original source was the NDIC). There may be errors in the data and there may be typographical errors. 

Projected Permits For 2014

As of March 31 (updated after original post) for this year and the previous two years, this many permits have been issued, and this is how many permits were projected at that time:

  • 2014: 685 -- 2,778 (rounds to 2800)
  • 2013: 619 -- 2,539 (rounds to 2500)
  • 2012: 520 -- 2,132 (rounds to 2100)
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A Note to the Granddaughters

The LaCrosse Tribune is reporting:
TUNNEL CITY— Perry Schmitt describes himself as pro-mining but blames the frac sand mine across the highway from his home for driving down the asking price by more than $25,000, to $189,000.
His neighbors made out better. Kari Curran and her husband sold 130 acres for $1.5 million to a company affiliated with Unimin Mining Corp., operator of the mine. The property was previously valued at about $225,000.
“It was kind of bittersweet,” Curran said. “That was the house we raised our kids in.”
Two comments.

I doubt this is "news" to most folks. I know that newly constructed government subsidized housing going up in a neighborhood can lower the value of neighboring homes. Life is tough all over. Be thankful one has a $200,000 home +/- $20,000.

A lot of military folks have never owned a home, moving every two to three years. Soldiers have it bad; US Marines have it the worse. Some "military children" have never lived in one place more than two or three years. I think my wife said she went to seven or eight different schools by the time she graduated from high school. Our older daughter went to seven different schools by the time she graduated from high school (and some of them were pretty marginal) if you include pre-school. I don't think I remember "a house that we raised our kids in." For $1.5 million I could probably get used to that particular loss pretty quickly.

Yes, I'm being catty. Sarcastic. Mean. Whatever. It's a nice human interest story but that's about all.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Call It A Wrap -- January, 2014, Is History

FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY, 2014 (JUST THIS ONE MONTH)

Active rigs: Averaged about 190 active rigs, many of them drilling saltwater disposal wells.

Permits by operator (Hess has raised the bar; ramped up; XTO runner-up):
  • American Eagle: 6
  • BR: 11
  • CLR: 21
  • Emerald Oil: 8
  • EOG: 10
  • ERF: 5
  • Fidelity: 8
  • Hess: 24
  • HRC: 15
  • KOG: 16
  • MRO: 9
  • Murex: 2
  • Newfield: 9
  • Oasis: 14
  • OXY USA: 10
  • Petro-Hunt: 14
  • Slawson: 5
  • Statoil: 3
  • Triangle: 5
  • Whiting: 19
  • WPX: 7
  • XTO: 23
Permits by county (I knew McKenzie was going to be huge, but even so, surprising; I was surprised by the few new permits in Williams County):
  • Divide: 11
  • Dunn: 50
  • McKenzie: 101
  • Mountrail: 44
  • Williams: 15
Permits by field, selected:
  • Alger: 12
  • Banks: 8
  • Bear Den: 5
  • Big Bend: 5
  • Blue Buttes: 5
  • Chimney Butte: 13
  • Eagle Nest: 15
  • Elidah: 10
  • Grail: 0
  • Little Knife: 6
  • Parshall: 10
  • Poe: 6
  • Sanish: 2
  • Siverston: 6
Permits for wildcat wells: 3

Permits: 254 -- on track for 2,990 permits for calendar year, which would be a record.