Friday, May 8, 2026

Cramer's First Hour --- Friday -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50749CRAMER. 

Q just noted that AAPL has hit a new high; up almost $6; up almost 2%.  

Holy mackerel! The open for tech is amazing. Q and Faber are amazed; but Q is more amazed of the two. Faber: "SMH!"

And this is a Friday when a lot of bad stuff can happen over a weekend.  

Earlier this week I said I was terrified of the market. Twenty-four hours of intensive reading -- I'm no longer terrified. I remain fully invested in US equity.  

US firing on all cylinders!

  • jobs report today: number of jobs added last month doubled the expectation!
  • full employment; and,
  • no wage growth. 

By the way, there's a reason that the number of jobs adding exceeded all expectations

  • no one is willing to talk about it because it would give too much credit to Trump and his policies;
  • I won't post my thoughts because I don't like the pushback.

SCCO / GLW: both are going to have great days today.

The new meme: twenty-five proposed LCDs were cancelled this past year. That's accurate but it's a meaningless data point. It's actually good news for many of the hyperscalers.  LCDs are tracked here.

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AI Investing

Like all biological phenomena and revolutions, this current AI revolution will also follow the standard "S" curve.

Point A, about 2023: it had become obvious that one should have began investing heavily in AI by now. Interestingly, the term "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) was coined in 2023 by Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett. He created the nickname to describe a group of seven dominant, high-performing U.S. technology stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. 

Point B, about 2028, will be the last opportunity to continue investing aggressively in AI. The Mag 7 will have greatly expanded by then. One might argue we'll see a resurgence of "a" Nifty Fifty

Between points A and B aggressive investors need to continue aggressively invest in AI, but transition from the Mag7 to the Towering 20

Many of these new twenty companies will be the results of IPOs between now (2026 and 2028).  

Unless there are indications that the growth/excitement of the current AI revolution continues beyond 2030, the investor needs to pivot. And pivot quickly. The market -- certainly the AI market -- could plummet 20 to 25 percent once the average investor sees what is going on. One may already need to consider pivoting from the current Mag 7 to something new.

Between now and then, keep reading everything you can on societal and geo-political changes. The trick will be to anticipate the next Mag 7. My own hunch: pharmaceutical companies that focus on "healthspan expansion" and even, perhaps, "biological age reversal." Beware charlatans.

It's not too late to invest in the current AI revolution, but by next year this time -- maybe sooner --  investing in the current Mag 7 will be challenging -- the real winners (investors) will be those who correctly anticipate the Towering 20 in 2030. Maybe we will see thirty such tickers by 2030 ... "thirty for 2030" --- "30 for 30."

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
  • Longer version here.   
  •  

      

    TGIF -- May 8, 2026

    Locator: 50748B. 

    Apple is the story today: let's see if the opening corroborates that?

    • Trump to take two CEOs with him to China -- CEOs of Apple and Nvidia.  

    Jobs report today: number of jobs added last month doubled the expectation!

    • full employment; and,
    • no wage growth. 

    Qualcomm: I spoke too soon. It looks like Qualcomm is the story today.  QCOM is up $12 in futures. 

     Ratio, CPUs : GPUs --

    • one year ago: 1:5
    • this next year: will trend toward 1:1
    • could actually be greater than 1:1

    Traveling: Trump to take two CEOs with him to China -- CEOs of Apple and Nvidia.  

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    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: $94.81.

    New wells reporting today:

    • Sunday, May 10, 2026: 18 for the month, 118 for the quarter, 275 for the year, 
      • 41739, conf, Hess, EN-Rohde-LE-157-94-3625H-1, 
    • Saturday, May 9, 2026: 17 for the month, 117 for the quarter, 274 for the year, 
      • 41844, conf, Hunt Oil, Kandiyohi 159-90-5-17H-2, 
    • Friday, May 8, 2026: 16 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 273 for the year, 
      • 41860, conf, Devon Energy, Finn 13-25F 2H, 

    RBN Energy: refinery capacity creep, falling inventories may limit US crude export surge. Link here. Archived.

    U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, a mark nearly 1.6 MMb/d higher than 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d on an annual basis — over the same three-year period. Export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) could have been sending out much more, as evidenced by the recent, Iran-conflict-related surge to nearly 6 MMb/d, but there’s often been a better, more profitable alternative: running that incremental oil through USGC refineries whose capacities have been increasing in subtle but important ways. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss these “capacity creep” expansion projects and their effect on U.S. crude oil and refined product exports.

    Unsurprisingly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended the generally organized patterns of the international oil trade. In a flash, the waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil production passed was effectively shut down, stranding crude-laden supertankers in the Persian Gulf and shutting down oil and gas production in much of the war-torn region. The effects have been widespread. Dozens of refineries in Asia that depend heavily on crude from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Persian Gulf producers were left to scramble for alternative sources of supply, including the U.S. Some refineries in Europe faced shortfalls too, if not as severe, and also sought out U.S. oil. In addition, large short‑term draws from storage (both commercial storage and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR), driven by higher prices and strong overseas demand, have helped enable a temporary spike in U.S. crude exports, but this is unlikely to be sustainable over the long term.

    U.S. crude exports will likely revert back to previous levels if trends over the last few years hold. U.S. crude output (sum of stacked layers and left axis in Figure 1 below) reached a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025 and peaked at 13.9 MMb/d in October, according to monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Despite that growth, the share of those barrels headed for export (purple line and right axis) held at about 30% as U.S. refiners appeared to be taking on most of the additional output, gradually increasing domestic crude runs (arrow and orange layer) as export volumes (teal layer) held mostly steady. So far in 2026, production has edged lower from late-2025 levels and RBN expects overall production volumes to remain mostly flat compared to last year, with Permian growth offset by modest declines elsewhere.

    Figure 1. Crude Oil Export Percentage. Source: RBN