Chevron: $400 Million Loss Tied To Hess Acquisition -- 3Q25 -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49240CVX.

Link here. 

AI prompt:

In round numbers could one say Chevron's (CVX) quarterly numbers are: revenue, $200 billion; earnings, $2 billion?

AI reply:

While the $2 billion earnings estimate is close, stating Chevron's quarterly revenue is $200 billion is inaccurate . 

The correct figures are significantly lower. 

• Based on its most recent earnings report for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025): 
• Revenue: The actual revenue was $44.82 billion; 
• Earnings: The reported GAAP earnings were $2.5 billion. Adjusted earnings were $3.1 billion 

AI prompt:

Chevron (CVX) revenue, earnings. Following the Hess acquisition, what's Chevron's revenue / earnings likely to be for the third quarter, 2025?

AI reply:

• Reported earnings: A loss of $200 to $400 million.
• Adjusted earnings: An impact of positive $50 million to $150 million, excluding severance charges and other one-time transaction costs.
• Revenue: While Chevron's official revenue forecast is not yet available, analysts expect the company's revenue to be approximately $48 billion for the quarter.
•  Production: Net oil-equivalent production from the acquired Hess assets is forecast to be 450,000–500,000 barrels per day. 

Ticker today:

Is CVX's quarterly dividend at risk? Time will tell.

AI prompt: 

In the last ten years, what was the worst quarterly loss reported by Chevron (CVX).

AI reply:

The worst quarterly loss reported by Chevron (CVX) in the last ten years was a record $8.3 billion loss in the second quarter of 2020.

Iconic Apple Store In Tokyo Re-Opens — September 25, 2025

Locator: 49239APPLE.
Locator: 49239SUPERCYCLE.

Tokyo’s iconic Apple Store about to re-open.

Link here.

Link here.

*************************
SuperCycle -- Tom Lee -- Closing Bell -- CNBC

Link here.  Tom Lee:

We’re in an AI supercycle and sees Nvidia as a bargain at 26x forward earnings … cheaper than Costco or Walmart today and far below Cisco’s 60x back in 1998. In his view, valuations now look far more reasonable than in 1999.

Link here. 

*************************
Breaking: Recession Fears -- It Gets Tedious

Link here.  

BREAKING: Recession fears rise on better than expected economic growth.

From this morning:  

Stagflation? Sara Eisen -- no, not even close.  

Link here. 

Government Shutdown -- Trump Made His Decision Two Days Ago -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49238SHUTDOWN.  

The US Congress is in recess. Returns to Washington, DC, Monday, September 29, 2025.

US government needs to be funded by midnight, Tuesday, September 30, 2025. 

Most agree it's impossible to get a temporary spending bill approved in less than 48 hours. 

We'll wait for Polymarket on x to give us the odds that the government will / won't be shut down as of Wednesday, October 1, 2025.  

My hunch: like Russian jets entering NATO airspace, Trump is interested in testing the response / strength of the US equity markets if there's a prolonged government shutdown. 

He's tired of this semi-annual political kabuki dance and wants to prove once and for all: a government shutdown? No one cares. He'll restore essential services -- like the TSA -- on a case-by-case basis. But the national parks ... oh, well. BLS? Oh, well. FEMA? Oh, well. 

The White House won't shut. Let the other two branches shut down. Think what he can get accomplished without the other two branches interfering.

Imagine: any number of emergencies could pop up anywhere in the world during a US government shutdown. The American people would demand presidential action. Trump would be only too happy to act.  

It's interesting that Hegseth has ordered "all" flag officers meet in Washington, DC, on the day before the US government shuts down. I don't believe in coincidences.  

Costco -- A Looming Recession -- LOL -- September 26, 2025

Locator: 49237COSTCO.  

Today's feature article in The Atlantic: the coming US recession.

That's why I don't subscribe to The Atlantic any more.

2Q25 GDP: 3.8% final and official -- announced today -- vs 3.3% estimated.

And now this: link here. Hardly looks like a recession and hardly looks like the US consumer is struggling.

And Americans shopping at Costco have to pay the privilege to shop there.

What a great country.

It Gets Tedious -- Money Is Fungible -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49236POLITICS.  

See this post. 

Talk about political smoke and mirrors. Even in North Dakota. 

Again, see this post. 

Two days ago North Dakota state officials were complaining that the "Big Beautiful Bill" would cost North Dakota taxpayers $130 million.

Today, we learn the "Big Beautiful Bill" will give North Dakota so much money -- for one "project" -- the state will have to establish a new committee to manage all that money -- $500 million.

It gets tedious. 

Link here. 

Of if there's a pay wall, just go to AI:

US Government Shutdown? Follow The Money -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49235POLITICS.  

This was posted earlier today:

Locator: 49224INV. 

Obamacare subsidies: what was the original purpose of the Obamacare subsidies? 

• GOP simply wants a clean bill: go back to the original Obamacare program -- that's how I see it; simply end the subsidies that were added in 2021 during the flood of immigration into the US. 
• AI: a little obfuscation here 
• the initial subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) became available in 2014, when the health insurance marketplaces officially launched (this was was the original act). The enhanced, temporary, subsidies were later added in 2021 by the Amerian Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) -- direct quote from AI Overview
• under President Biden in what three years did illegal immigration peak?
• during the Biden administration, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows that the fiscal years with the highest number of border encounters were 2023, 2022, and 2021, in that order 
• let's see: subsidies included "immigrants" -- that "rescue plan" was passed in 2021; the flood of illegal immigrants rose in 2021 and then again in 2022 and than again in 2023
• some see cause and effect -- US BIG HEALTH desperately needed these subsidies
• wow: chatbots make this easy -- at least as a start 
• who needs these subsidies? US BIG HEALTH -- one wonder which offices in Washington, DC, that US BIG HEALTH lobbyists are visiting? 
• AI prompt: does schumer get any money from US Big Health lobbyists?
• AI reply: yes -- verbatim -- "campaign finance records show that Senator Chuck Schumer has received money from lobbyists and political action committees (PACs) associated with the U.S. health care and pharmaceutical industries."

Now this, over at CNBC -- it really is all about money for US Big Health -- insurance providers, hospitals, probably not the individual poor. LOL.

The illegal immigrant trade has been good to US Big Health. And for the Democrats. 

Oasis With Five New Permits, Ft Buford Oil Field, Southwest Of Williston -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49234B. 

WTI: $64.98. 

Active rigs: 34. 

Five new permits, #42344 - #42348, inclusive; Oasis, Ft Buford, Williams County:

• 42344, conf, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 2B, Ft Buford, NWNE 18-153-103, sited 288 FNL 2249 FEL;
• 42345, conf, Oasis, RellaW 5303 13-18 3B, Ft Buford, NWNE 18-153-103, sited 288 FNL 2216 FEL;
• 42346, conf, Oasis, Rella W 5303 13-18 4BX, Ft Buford, NWNE 18-153-103, sited 288 FNL 2183 FEL;
• 42347, conf, Oasis, Rella Federal 5303 13-17 3B, Ft Buford, NWNE 17-153-103, sited 324 FNL, 1911 FEL;
• 42348, conf, Oasis, Rella E 5303 13-17 4B, Ft Buford, NWNE 17-153-103, sited 324 FNL, 1878 FEL;

Existing producing wells:

• 19373, 605, Oasis, Rella 18-19H, Ft. Buford, t6/11; cum 261K 7/25; 
• 21099, 825, Oasis, Rella 17-20H, Lake Trenton, t7/12; cum 261K 7/25; 

Three producing wells (DUCs):

• 40373, 2,391, Slawson, Kahuna 2-6-7H, McKenzie County;
• 40904, 2,327, CLR, Corsican Federal 10-15H1, Mountrail County;
• 41201, 190, Silver Hill Energy, Rooster W Federal 15-94-2-26-2TFHX, Burke.

Investing -- LNG -- Rambling -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49233INV. 

A reader sent me a link to a Fortune article on Venture Global. It's an amazing article, a must-read.

Link here. 

My reply, not ready for prime time:

I absolutely cannot make heads or tails of natural gas as an investment.

I would assume VG's chart (see below) reflects the company spending a lot of money ramping up with a lot of new tankers. I have no idea. I don't follow VG.

But across the board, NG and LNG have been poor investments for me. 

Over the next five years, the US will ship more and more LNG overseas.

But five years from now, one wonders what the mix of domestic use / export LNG will be. 

When you listen to the AI crowd there's no way the US will have enough natural gas to meet the needs of all these data centers, though I don't think the shortage will be natural gas (the commodity) itself but rather the infrastructure like gas turbines and building all these new plants (regulators, EPA, permitting, etc). 

If LNG / NG gets too expensive for the EU / China, they will switch to coal in a New York minute.

I won't be adding any new money to LNG or NG. I'm well represented in fossil fuel, perhaps 60% oil / 40% natural gas (to include pipelines). 

I'm struggling where to put new money. In situations like this, I chicken out and put new money in Schwab ETFs.

The good news: I have less and less new money to invest every year. I am now funding the Roth IRAs for two older granddaughters who now earn enough money to max out their IRAs.

So, over time, my tax liability gradually drops.

VG:

LNG:

Back to where to put new money. Just as there is a "magnificent 7" in the tech sector, I think there's going to be a few huge winners in "streaming." You know, like NBC/Peacock. If so, "streaming" will be driven by professional sports.

Oh, as long as I'm rambling, my favorite tech: Oracle and Broadcom (CEO here). 

You might see this on the blog. LOL.

Bruce 

Market Today -- BRK-B Continues To Lose Traction -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49232INV. 

CNBC is / was incredibly boring today. Once CNBC gets "stuck" on a subject, they can't move off. As a mom-and-pop retail investor, I didn't find CNBC a bit helpful today.  

Market today:

BRK-B:  I'm hard on BRK-B but in the big scheme of things, if all you held / invested in for the last 30 years was BRK-B, you would be doing quite well. 

With The Sudden Rise In Price Of Silver And Gold, It Might Be Time To Take A New Look At Your Coin Collection -- September 26, 2025

Locator: 49231COINS. 

AI prompt:  

Is this accurate: in 2009, soaring demand forced the U.S. Mint to make a controversial choice: no Proof Silver Eagle was struck for the first and only time since the series launched in 1986. That year also saw no Burnished issues, leaving collectors with a frustrating gap?

My comment and then AI's reply:

Private dealers are now offering a "2009" commemorative to fill the gap. Incredibly expensive. Supposedly minted by the US Government Mint but a commemorative commissioned by private dealers. At least that's my understanding. I have no experience in this area.

AI prompt: is a commemorative legal tender?

AI reply: 

Yes, U.S. commemorative coins are legal tender, but they are not minted for general circulation and are not intended to be spent in day-to-day transactions, according to Congress.gov and the U.S. Mint. While they hold official value in settling debts, their true value often lies with collectors, as they are sold by the U.S. Mint at prices higher than their face value.

TikTok -- Getting Closer To The Signed Agreement -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49230TIKTOK. 

TikTok would get a new board, including the Murdochs and the Ellisons. 

Link here.

Oracle.

Silver Lake. American global investment firm. Founded in1999. Number 12 of the top 300 global investment firms by some accounts.

MGX.  Emirati state-owned investment firm for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Established by the government of Abu Dhabi in 2024, MGX aims to become a vehicle for AI-driven investments with a target of managing US$100 billion in assets. 

The big question: has this been Oracle's all along. It was just a matter of Oracle, with President Trump's help, finding deep pockets back up Oracle's risk. 

When You've Jumped The Shark And Have Lost All Credibility -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49229AI. 

Link here.  

Mileage -- Personal -- 2012 Honda Civic -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49228MPG. 

2012 model bought near the end of 2011. 

Down to 8 cents / mile.  

 **************************
Current Prices For Beer At Local Store
North Texas -- DFW -- Total Wine

From The "X" Files -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49227XFILES. 

Barron's: who takes second place behind Nvidia? Broadcom or AMR? Link here. Answer: Broadcom. 

Ask AI: Broadcom puts its AI revenue opportunity at between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027 just from three existing hyperscale customers. Who are the three customers?

Reply: not publicly disclosed. Rumors: Alphabet's Google, Meta Platforms, and ByteDance.  

ByteDance is the Chinese internet technology company behind social media apps like TikTok and its Chinese counterpart Douyin.  

Ask AI: Meta, Google, Amazon are considered hyperscalers. Is Apple considered a hyperscaler? 

Reply: yes. Apple has a massive scale of data center infrastructure to supports its vast ecosystem of online services. The term refers to companies that own and operate massive, scalable data centers to deliver cloud services for billions of users.

Honda: latest casualty of the EV debacle. Link here. 

AI energy: for the next decade, natural gas and coal will be the primary sources of 24/7 power eeded by AI Data Centers. Link here. 

Launch: Atlas V (Elon Musk -- SpaceX) launches Amazon's Kuiper 3 mission. Link here. 

The Eisen Hour -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49226EISEN. 

Sarah has changed her hair slightly; her countenance is noticeably changed. 

Stagflation? Sara Eisen -- no, not even close.  

Link here. 

Reiterates this morning's data:

• GDP, 2Q25 real GDP: 3.8% vs 3.3%; 
• PCE price index: 2.1%
• Core PCE: 2.6%
• unemployment rate: 4.3% 
• initial jobless claims:218K vs 235K estimate
• weekly contin: -2,000 to 1.9 million
• August durable goods: 2.9% vs -0.5%.

US existing home sales: great story -- much better than expected

• down 0.2% m/m but incredibly less than the 1.5% decline expected 
• big story now: inventory of available houses dropping -- and dropping fast 

***********************
RBN Energy

RBN Energy: once stuck in the doldrums, weather derivatives may have the wind at their back. 

The popularity of weather derivatives has ebbed and flowed since their introduction in the late 1990s but trading activity has rebounded in recent years as the trading community has increasingly begun to reassess the need to hedge weather-related risks — everything from high temperatures and rainfall levels to power prices and cooling demand. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the role of weather derivatives, how they are used to hedge risk, and why they may be becoming increasingly important to the energy industry. 

Many of you are probably familiar with Jim McIngvale (see photo below), the Houston-area celebrity known as “Mattress Mack” and the owner of Gallery Furniture. He gained national attention back in 2017 when he opened his stores to those affected by Hurricane Harvey, but he’s also attracted a lot of notoriety for his big-dollar bets on college and professional sports. We assume that Mattress Mack enjoys a good wager and the publicity that comes with it, but there’s often a bottom-line strategy behind his bets. In perhaps the most newsworthy example, his stores ran a promotion back in 2022 that said if you bought at least $3,000 in furniture, you’d get it for free if the Houston Astros won the World Series. That potentially expensive proposition became a reality when the Astros beat the Philadelphia Phillies in six games, but Mattress Mack was covered because the downside risk of that promotion (giving away a lot of free furniture) was hedged by his bet on the Astros to win the Series. In the end, he won a reported $75 million in bets (on $10 million wagered), earned himself and his store a load of free publicity, and more than made up for all the free furniture he ended up giving away.

Houston’s Jim McIngvale, Better Known as “Mattress Mack.”

Weather derivatives, which have been around for about 30 years, work in much the same way as the example above, so let’s start with some basics. Weather derivatives are financial contracts that are linked to one or more specific, measurable variables, such as average temperatures, wind speeds and cumulative rainfall. They are financially settled using data from the National Weather Service (NWS) or other trusted, third-party providers. Perhaps most importantly, there is no physical damage required to trigger a payout (unlike insurance); the only thing that matters is whether the specific conditions of a derivative have been met. For example, a business impacted by the aforementioned Hurricane Harvey would have had to document any actual damage and file a claim for its insurance to pay out but could have quickly collected on any derivatives tied to above-average rainfall for that month. (Harvey dropped 40-50 inches of rain on Houston in August 2017, well above the monthly average of 5.4 inches.) 

Fact-Checking Jim Cramer's Purest Sand In The US And Legacy Of Corning -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49225CORNING. 

AI prompt: purest sand in the US Corning New York area. 

AI reply: false. But it's not that simple. 

Full reply:

While no major source of sand in the immediate Corning, New York area is known for extreme purity, the area's glassmaking industry has historically sourced high-purity silica from significant deposits in other parts of the United States. The purest natural quartz sand in the US is found elsewhere.

Primary sources of pure silica sand in the US:

• Spruce Pine, North Carolina;
• Ottawa, Illinois;
• Overton, Nevada;

Corning, New York:

the area around Corning does not have the purest sand but the sand around Corning is more than pure enough for Corning's needs -- so, in fact, Cramer's thesis was essentially correct but that was not the primary reason for siting Corning there.

When was Corning founded? 1851.

Dating back to the start of the company in 1851, Corning's founding family, the Houghtons, saw research and development as a way to stand out in a landscape thick with rival glass makers.

AI prompt: why was Corning founded in Corning New York area

Corning was founded in the Corning, New York, area in 1868 due to its advantageous location as a transportation and industrial center, with access to natural resources via canals and railroads for glass manufacturing. 

The Brooklyn Flint Glass Company (later Corning Glass Works) was convinced to relocate there by a local businessman, Elias Hungerford, who saw potential in the town's infrastructure and connections to the Pennsylvania coal fields, vital for powering glass furnaces

It was coal!

Sort of like modern AI large data centers being situated in the Permian and in the Utica. LOL.

It's all about energy! 

*************************
Pottery Manufacturing In North Carolina

This is so incredibly cool!

AI prompt: pottery manufacturing development near Spruce Spine North Carolina. 

AI reply: while Spruce Pine, NC, is a major center for quartz mining and semiconductor-related industries, it is not a hub for traditional pottery manufacturing; that distinction belongs to Seagrove, NC, which is centuries old and known as the "Handmade Pottery Capital of the United States." 

Spruce Pine's industrial development focuses on high-purity minerals rather than clay-based arts and crafts.

Spruce Pine's Industrial Focus:

• Mining: Spruce Pine is at the heart of a significant mining district that supplies high-purity quartz used in manufacturing integrated circuits.
• Companies: The mines are primarily owned by global material solutions companies like Sibelco and The Quartz Corp.

North Carolina's Pottery Hub:

• Seagrove: The region historically known for pottery manufacturing is Seagrove, located in central North Carolina, which has a tradition dating back to the 18th century and is considered the "Handmade Pottery Capital of the United States."

Geography:

• Spruce Pine is three hours, almost directly, west of Seagrove, North Carolina
• Spruce Pine is more inland, northwest side of Charlotte, NC
• Seagrove is nearer the cost, on the northeast side of Charlotte, NC

For more: see this on the blog. 

Thursday Night Football -- West Coast -- Seattle Seahawks Vs Arizona Cardinals -- And Then There's The US Economy -- September 25, 2025

Locator: 49224INV. 

Obamacare subsidies: what was the original purpose of the Obamacare subsidies? 

• GOP simply wants a clean bill: go back to the original Obamacare program -- that's how I see it; simply end the subsidies that were added in 2021 during the flood of immigration into the US. 
• AI: a little obfuscation here 
• the initial subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) became available in 2014, when the health insurance marketplaces officially launched (this was was the original act). The enhanced, temporary, subsidies were later added in 2021 by the Amerian Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) -- direct quote from AI Overview
• under President Biden in what three years did illegal immigration peak?
• during the Biden administration, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows that the fiscal years with the highest number of border encounters were 2023, 2022, and 2021, in that order 
• let's see: subsidies included "immigrants" -- that "rescue plan" was passed in 2021; the flood of illegal immigrants rose in 2021 and then again in 2022 and than again in 2023
• some see cause and effect -- US BIG HEALTH desperately needed these subsidies
• wow: chatbots make this easy -- at least as a start 
• who needs these subsidies? US BIG HEALTH -- one wonder which offices in Washington, DC, that US BIG HEALTH lobbyists are visiting? 
• AI prompt: does schumer get any money from US Big Health lobbyists?
• AI reply: yes -- verbatim -- "campaign finance records show that Senator Chuck Schumer has received money from lobbyists and political action committees (PACs) associated with the U.S. health care and pharmaceutical industries."

Market continues to fall: 

• traders make money on volatility; not the market going up every day;
• economy doing better than expected --> no reason for Fed to cut rates;
• converse: unemployment rate (U-3) actually increases slightly;
• government shut down --> mass firings --> a new wrinkle;
• another possibility: if courts won't allow mass firings, then back-pay won't be paid;
• not mentioned so far:
• September is always a tough month;
• 3Q25 is coming to an end; 
• mutual funds close their books about two months after end of 3Q25;
• Cramer: rate cut failed; borrowing costs for consumers actually increasing;
• are banks making out like bandits
• overnight borrowing costs were cut;
• banks charging higher interest rates?

Starbucks: to reorganize

• close stores, cut jobs 

EVs: the day the music died -- link here --

US Economic Data -- Growth Is Better Than Expected -- August, 2025 -- Released September 25, 2025

Locator: 49223ECONOMY. 

US economic numbers: unless I'm misreading / misinterpreting these numbers, these are very, very good numbers:

• GDP, 2Q25 real GDP: 3.8% vs 3.3%; 
• PCE price index: 2.1%
• Core PCE: 2.6%
• unemployment rate: 4.3% 
• initial jobless claims:218K vs 235K estimate
• weekly contin: -2,000 to 1.9 million
• August durable goods: 2.9% vs -0.5%.

US existing home sales: great story -- much better than expected

• down 0.2% m/m but incredibly less than the 1.5% decline expected 
• big story now: inventory of available houses dropping -- and dropping fast 

Link here.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were well below expectations last week, helping to douse caution at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the labor market is in danger.

First-time filings for the week ending Sept. 20 totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 235,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, falling 2,000 to 1.926 million.

The release comes just a week after the Federal Reserve voted to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4%-4.25%. 

Link here.