Friday, November 17, 2017

An Astounding 41 Permits Renewed; Ten New Permits; XTO With Permits For An 8-Well Pad; Active Rigs Back Up To 56; WTI Up To Almost $57 -- November 17, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563864184183

Ten new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (8); Crescent Point (2)
  • Fields: North Fork (McKenzie); Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for an eight-well Rough Federal pad in SESE 23-149-97
Forty-one (41) permits renewed
  • XTO (12): eight Maddy Federal permits, all in McKenzie County; three Tobacco Garden permits in McKenzie County; one Badlands Federal permit in McKenzie County;
  • Slawson (8): five Submariner Federal permits; two Goblin Federal permits; and one Gobbler Federal permit, all in Mountrail County
  • Hess (5): five BB-Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Enerplus (4): a Schwinn permit; a Huffy permit; a Log House permit; and, a Round House permit, all in Dunn County; 
  • EOG (3): three Burke permits in Mountrail County
  • NP Resources (3): three Little Mo Federal permits in Billings County
  • BR (2): two State Veeder permits, both in McKenzie County
  • MRO (2): a Felix USA permit and an Elizabeth Felix permit, both in Dunn County
  • HRC (2): two Fort Berthold permits, both in McKenzie County

One permit canceled:
  • MRO: Eagle USA in Dunn County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 28029, 419, Oasis Twobins 5501 13-29 3B, t10/17; cum --

The Political Page, T+300 -- November 17, 2017


Later, 2:36 p.m. Central Time: see first comment. It is easy to "verify" the comments regarding health risks associated with wind farm noise. A simple google search (altered cortical and subcortical connectivity) will yield 426,000 hits regarding the wind noise issue, about 420,000 more hits than necessary for most lawyers.

Original Post
A second reader alerted me to this story so I will post it. I'm trying to minimize my comments on global warming and renewable energy since I feel I am preaching to the choir, but when multiple readers alert me to same article, I figure there is enough reason to post it, at least for the archives.

From the [Minneapolis/St Paul] StarTribune, "wind project in southern Minnesota gets pushback." The opposition has already gotten half the project built in Iowa. As the reader noted, Minnesotans appear to like wind energy but not in their immediate backyard. Iowa is as close as many Minnesotans want renewable energy. Apparently, some in Minnesota see the light: there is not one redeemable aspect to wind energy, as we've said before.
Wind farms commonly generate some local antipathy as they grow both in number and economic importance to the energy industry, but the Freeborn project has sparked a higher level of opposition. It has been intense enough to prompt Freeborn Wind’s developer, Invenergy, to move more than half the project — 58 turbines — across the border to Iowa.
“Iowa loves it,” said Dan Litchfield, senior manager for Chicago-based Invenergy, which is developing Freeborn Wind for Xcel Energy. As far as state permitting, “the Iowa portion of the project is done,” Litchfield said. In Minnesota, Freeborn Wind has sparked a fight before the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC).
There are issues over the proximity of wind turbines to some houses. And opponents of the project are concerned about unwanted noise, potential health effects, visual pollution and declining property values.
Litchfield said it’s a “myth” that wind farms can cause ill health, and the Freeborn project will “comply with the law” as far as noise levels and distances between houses and turbines.
Both sides agree one on matter: Poor perception of an existing wind farm in Freeborn County, the Bent Tree project north of Albert Lea, has helped spark opposition to Freeborn Wind.
The more rural folks see wind farms in California, Kansas, and Oregon, the more they will try to stop wind farms in their area. 

Reader Provides Update On Interesting Driller In Appalachia -- November 17, 2017

See this post and first comment:
Small outfit in the Appalachian Basin - Eclipse Resources - just drilled the longest lateral at 20,800 feet, named Mercury well. 
ECR now has about half dozen wells 19,000 foot plus lateral length, targeting condensate rich area of Utica. 
Drilling is generally one run, spud to TD in 16 or 17 days time. 
Extraordinarily economic approach. 
Virtually all Appalachian operators are trying for 15,000 foot laterals as the gas flowing for the following decades will be extremely inexpensive to produce. 
These operational procedures will continue to spread to the Bakken and other 'shale' plays as refinements continue to manifest.
For a short period of time early in the boom, and in some cases still today, Bakken operators drilled some short laterals, slightly less than a mile in length. Now, the "standard" length for a Bakken lateral is a bit less than two miles long. A few folks are suggesting that we will start to see laterals  3 x 4,500 feet or 13,500 feet long. A 20,000-ft lateral in North Dakota will be the length of four sections. 

Chart Of The Day -- November 17, 2017

See this post for background. North Dakota crude oil production.

The chart:

Yup. Deep doo-doo for Saudi Arabia. My re-balancing calculations suggest the market will be over-supplied for at least 44 more weeks. Previously posted.


MSNBC defends Al Franken. The New York Times does not:
Oh no, not Al Franken, too.
Before Thursday, I’d hoped Franken would run for president in 2020. A hugely gifted communicator with entertainment chops, he seemed well suited to take on Donald Trump, assuming the demagogic showman seeks re-election. A decade ago, when Franken first considered running for Senate, I spent a few days trailing him around Minnesota and found him serious, earnest and decent. As a lawmaker he’s been — in what now seems an awful irony — great on issues of sexual assault. He was behind one measure that made it easier for people who are sexually victimized while working for defense contractors to find justice and another ensuring that survivors don’t have to pay for their own rape kits. He hired feminist women, including Stephanie Schriock, who managed his 2008 campaign and is now president of Emily’s List. 
Sure, Franken made plenty of sexist jokes when he was with “Saturday Night Live,” but I thought he was one of the good guys. (I thought there were good guys.)
Then I saw the photo. On Thursday morning, Leeann Tweeden, a former model and radio news anchor in Los Angeles, accused Franken of harassing her during a 2006 U.S.O. tour to entertain American troops abroad. She wrote that he talked her into doing a sketch in which he  “mashed his lips against mine and aggressively stuck his tongue in my mouth.”This story alone might not have gotten Franken in much trouble — even if Tweeden had been able to get people to believe her, Franken could have explained it away as acting. But there’s a disgusting, indelible photograph from the cargo plane that took them home from Afghanistan. In it, Tweeden has fallen asleep in her flak jacket, and Franken, grinning at the camera, appears to grope her breasts. The picture was included on a commemorative CD sent to participants by the trip photographer. 
Tweeden wrote that when she saw it: “I felt violated all over again. Embarrassed. Belittled. Humiliated.” No wonder; the picture is utterly dehumanizing. Soon after the news broke, Franken issued a terse apology, saying the photo “was clearly intended to be funny but wasn’t. I shouldn’t have done it.” I read that and thought: You have to resign now. But then Franken put out another, better statement, saying he felt disgusted by his former self: “It’s obvious how Leeann would feel violated by that picture. And, what’s more, I can see how millions of other women would feel violated by it.”  
He asked for an ethics investigation into his conduct and for the opportunity to make things up to his female supporters. I found this persuasive and would like to see Franken redeem himself, but I still don’t think he can.
Asking for an ethics investigation? He's making a mockery of the system. He knows that an ethics investigation will last months, if not years; the outcome will be kept secret; and, two years for now, voters (and the press) will forget all about it. 
Fantasizing about raping Leslie Stahl? And that's just the tip of the Minnesota iceberg, it appears.

The Political Page, T+300 -- November 17, 2017

The 600-lb US Senate gorilla: Al Franken. I was dead wrong on this. I thought the story had no legs; darling of mainstream media. We will know by Monday if his fall is as fast as that of Harvey's. If there are no Al Franken stories on front page of NY Times after Tuesday, November 21, 2017, it's a dead story. He was overwhelmingly re-elected to his second term in 2014, so he has lots of time to recover. But the photograph is a real downer. Interestingly enough, the harassed and traumatized actress has already accepted his apology, which sort of ends the story, one would think. I'm okay, you're okay, comes to mind. Or que sera, sera.

Que Sera, Sera, Doris Day

Rocket man: not a peep out of North Korea in quite some time now. China, others, want to reward North Korea for good behavior; Trump says "no way."

MAD: US has less than 15 minutes to respond to nuclear attack. Some in Congress want to extend decision for a nuclear response to a nuclear attack on the US to a year or so through congressional oversight. Of course, if there is a nuclear attack on the US, the entire DC political process shuts down while members evacuate to an undisclosed location.

Just say no. US House approves its version of tax bill. First GOP senator has said he will vote "no" on US Senate version; others yet to weigh in but one can expect no less than three more GOP senators to say "no." Those saying "no" can be "bought." I'm posting this for the archives; I've lost interest in the bill. I agree with those who say the various versions appear simply to be replacing old loopholes with new loopholes; and, throwing a bone to the middle class. I strongly believe that tax cuts for US corporations will be good news for the US but the average "man on the street" won't see any change. And even though corporate tax cuts are good for the US, is it that much "good news" compared to other problems/solutions? I'm not convinced the tax code is the biggest problem for the Fortune 500 companies.

Former GE CEO Immelt: unaware that a second corporate jet was flying as back-up whenever he flew. Says he stopped the practice as soon as he learned about it. Really? 

WTI Up Almost 1% -- Why? -- November 17, 2017


November 17, 2017: see first comment about current production milestones, records.

Original Post

Two wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 32977, SI/NC, BR, Dodge 3B MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,  
  • 29090, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-6H, no production data,
Story Of The Day

Artificial lift: this story deserves a stand-alone post of its own; will get around to it later. From Rigzone.  For newbies, one can look at three-legged stool regarding quality/success of a well:
  • location
  • location
  • location.
Okay, just kidding. Here are the three "technology" pieces
  • drilling
  • completing (fracking, e.g.)
  • lift (pump)
Rigzone looks at artificial lift.  From industry expert spokesman:
  • Most often, lifting liquids from the well allows the gas to flow using its own energy, but today some methods can also aid in lifting the gas.
  • Often 50 percent of the resource is left to be extracted after the high-rate initial flow period,” Scott said. “Companies that win in unconventionals are the companies that get artificial lift right. I like to use the term ‘artificial lift first
Second Story Of The Day 

From The Williston Herald: production cleared 1.1 million bopd and more increases may be ahead.
For the eighth consecutive month, oil production in North Dakota hovered over the 1 million barrel per day mark, and incrementally climbed its way back to another milestone.
September production was 1.107 million barrels per day, up from August’s 1.089 million. It is the first time since March 2016 that North Dakota oil production exceeded 1.1 million.
That,  and the production of natural gas:
These production numbers put state revenues at 17 percent above forecasts, despite prices being a little lower than forecast.
“We are still 2 percent low on that,” Department of MIneral Resources Director Lynn Helms said. “If we project that through the biennium, production numbers will make up for it, but we are still lagging in terms of prices on revenue forecast.”
What's going on in the Bakken?
Longer lateral lines are part of what’s driving increased production, along with more sand and larger, slickwater hydraulic fracturing techniques. 
One place that’s a standout is what Liberty is doing in northern Mountrail and southern Burke Counties,” Helms said. “I took a look at some of those extended lateral wells that are producing 2.5 to 3 times the initial production rate of the 2-mile laterals that were previously drilled in that area. That’s pretty encouraging, and it’s already affecting Mountrail numbers.”
Burke County numbers aren’t showing an effect yet, since some of the wells production statistics are still confidential.
These improvements are keeping the Bakken in the No. 1 and 2 place in terms of production per rig.
One reason why there is so much activity in the Permian vs the Bakken right now:
“We still have to compete with the fact that there’s a lot of leasehold to procure in the Permian and the Anadarko, but once those basins reach a similar level of maturity, you’d expect companies to bring their capital back here, where they make more money for every dollar invested.”
Long laterals:
  • more of them, mostly in non-core areas
  • NDIC has re-spaced some 1280-acre units to 1920-acre units to accomodate the need for longer laterals
  • only three wells meeting these new parameters are presently producing
  • a bump should occur when more of these long-lateral wells come on line
  • when looking at month-over-month production increases of almost 20,000 barrels, that represents about one-sixth, one-seventh of that increase; a significant increase
  • example: once Slawson is able to complete some of these in Van Hook, it looks like that one pad all by itself could potentially breach 20,000 barrels per day
Flaring problem? a one-time maintenance problem that has been fixed


WTI: up almost 1% in past 24 hours? Why? Was it the closure of the northern leg of the Keystone pipeline, major source of  heavy oil; US refineries optimized for heavy oil. Concerns that crude oil imports of heavy oil from Venezuela could fall? Or was it Harold Hamm's comments (see below). I don't know -- it will be interesting to watch price of oil for next few days as Keystone / Venezuela stories continue to unfold.

WTI: for a few dollars more --

Keystone Leak


November 19, 2017: story in local news, WJHL.

November 18, 2017: oil pipeline lead controlled, no threat to public.

Original Post 

Keystone XL lead. Data points from Reuters:
  • location: Amherst, SD:
    • Amherst, SD, about 10 miles south of North Dakota state line in northeastern South Dakota
    • population unknown
    • Amherst is an unincorporated community in Marshall County, South Dakota, United States. Although not tracked by the Census Bureau, Amherst has been assigned the ZIP code of 57421
  • spill:
    • 5,000 bbl (or 210,000 gallons as reported by most mainstream media outlets)
    • contained at site
    • cause: unknown
  • implications:
    • Nebraska regulators to release their decision on Keystone expansion on Monday, four days from now
    • Nebraska regulators not allowed to use spill as factor in their decision since TransCanada has already obtained an approved environmental impact statement
    • northern leg of system shut down (from Hardisty, Alberta, to Cushing, OK) and to Wood River and Patoka in Illinois
    • southern leg remains open
    • main economic concern for Canada: Canadian heavy crude differentials for DECEMBER delivery in Hardisty have widened to $14.65 per bbl below US crude from a discount of around $14.20/bbl the previous day
    • for January (2018) delivery: widened to $15.50 below US crude
    • for newbies: breakeven price for Canadian crude has always been significantly higher than US shale
    • Canadian sell-off could worsen if pipeline is shut down for extended period of time
    • for US refiners: possibly a double whammy if Venezuela delivers less heavy crude oil to the states
Other News

TSLA: shares could surge in an "up" market with news last night of a) truck; b) roadster
  • Bloomberg gadly via The Washington Post  not impressed
  • TSLA shareholders likely to go ga-ga
  • critics will likely gag
  • batteries alone cost $200,000+ for the truck
  • conventional diesel trucks cost in range of $120,000
  • truckers believe Tesla trucks would have to replace batteries every four or five years
Harold Hamm says folks like me are inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken
EIA's optimist forecasts are depressing US oil prices
Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553864184183

RBN Energy: Brent versus WTI differential, pipeline bottlenecks and crude oil exports. Great, great article. First in a series. Archived.