Saturday, January 7, 2017

Random Look At QEP Wells in Grail Oil Field -- January 7, 2017


January 28, 2017: FracFocus has frack data for second frack of #28168. 
Original Post
This is the first of two or three posts regarding the wells in this graphic:

Eight of the wells are sited in section 16 above, running south; a ninth well (#21564) is sited in the section to the south (section 21) and ends in section 16, running north.

Some data points about two of the wells in the graphic above:
  • #28168 is a middle Bakken well
  • #21564 is a Three Forks well
  • Horizontally they parallel each other most of their lengths, and in section 21 are separated horizontally 528 feet. I have not checked yet but I assume vertically they are separated by less than 100 feet. Could be wrong
I've talked about these wells in two earlier posts. I was waiting for #28168 to be re-fracked and the results known before updating these wells. Now that #28168 has been re-fracked, it's time to update these wells.

I don't have the energy to do it all tonight, so this is just the first post of two or three posts.

The earlier posts regarding these wells:
When you read those posts, you will see why I am interested in them.

#28168 was originally fracked 10/6 - 8/2014, but some stages failed, so it was re-fracked 9/18 - 21/2015, about a year later.
  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, Grail, t12/14; cum 24K 11/16; the production profile for this well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
1st FRACK10-2014191634161213243080298

In those earlier posts, I did not post data regarding this well running from the south, the singleton:
  • 21564,  2,288, QEP, Levang Federal 14-21/16H, Blue Buttes (sic), t8/12; cum 587K 11/16;
This is the entire production profile which will become important later. Note the jump in production between September, 2015 (9-2015) and and December, 2015 (12-2015), just three months later. It should be noted that the well was off-line for less than four weeks.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

To be completed later.

California Winter Storm -- Global Warming Hitting California -- Screenshot Of The Day -- January 7, 2017

From the Los Angeles Times:

One would have thought with global warming, North Dakota would have looked like California, but ever since the election of Donald Trump, the world has been topsy-turvy -- at least that's what My Wife says.


From this site (it looks like this graph was first published back in 2009):

Mankind (and womankind) survived the 75 sudden changes and numerous reversals.

I particularly liked the "Viking Explorations" age noted on the graphic above. I've talked about the Viking Age on many occasions; this was one of my favorites despite its brevity.

Random Look At Number Of Oil And Gas Permits In North Dakota During The Bakken Boom -- January 7, 2017

For another look at this, see the "history of the 2014 - 2016 oil price slump."

In 2016, the NDIC issued 818 oil and gas permits (my data may not match perfectly with the data of the NDIC, but it will be close, and some of the older data may be off a bit).

How does that compare with the number of permits issued in 2015?  2,056 permits were issued in 2015?

However, there's another interesting data point: the slump in the number of permits issued by the NDIC began in the second half (or maybe earlier) of 2015.

During the heady days of the boom, I would project/predict the number of permits likely to be issued for the entire year based on the number of permits issued at various times during the year.

For example, it's hard to believe but I was projecting the number of permits issued in any year by looking at the number of permits issued in the month of January of the given year. I did that for years 2012 - 2015, inclusive. I did not do that for 2016, knowing that it would only depress me. LOL.

Looking back, based on January of the given year, these were the projections, and then below that, the actual number of permits:
Projections for number of permits at the end of the calendar year based on permits of that same calendar year as of January 29th:

  • 2015: 3,033
  • 2014: 3,184
  • 2013: 2,744
  • 2012: 2,102
The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:
  • 2015: 2,055
  • 2014: 3,012
  • 2013: 2,671
  • 2012: 2,522
In other words:
  • based on permits issued in January, 2012, I predicted 2,102 permits vs actual number of 2,522 (significant increase)
  • based on permits issued in January, 2013, I predicted 2,744 permits, quite close to the actual 2,671 issued
  • based on permits issued in January, 2014, I predicted 3,184 permits, very, very close to the actual 3,012 permits issued
But then note this:
  • based on permits issued in January, 2015, I predicted 3,033 permits. In fact, only 2,055 permits were issued; a huge slump in 2015 due the crushing fall in the price of oil
By the way, in 2008, the NDIC issued 952 permits. The Bakken boom began in 2007 and reached its stride in 2010.
  • 2011: 1,915 permits
  • 2010: 1,682 permits
  • 2009: 624 permits 
  • 2008: 952 permits

Saturday Morning With The Wall Street Journal -- January 7, 2017

I love Saturday mornings, especially when My Wife is out in California and the first question of the day is not, "Well, what are your plans for today?"

I don't make plans any more. And especially not on Saturdays. I'm retired. I'm on standby (or "on call") 24/7 to take care of Sophia (our 2.5 y/o granddaughter; she is my BFF).

I don't even have a "bucket list." A bucket list is a to-do list for obsessive-compulsive retirees, and to-do lists are joined at the hip to "work."

Today, I had to stay in bed (where it was warm) until the inside temperature got above 50 degrees (I don't turn the heat on at night); I assumed it was 24 degrees outside when I woke up, only to be surprised to find that it was 15 degrees. So, finally at 11:00 a.m. I got out of bed, brought in The Wall Street Journal, made myself home-made waffles and one slice of store-bought bacon (no butchering allowed in the apartment complex), and then enjoyed coffee, the Journal, and now some archiving.

The coffee: I doubt many outside the deep south are familiar with "Family Owned Community Coffee." All I  know is it's "imported, roasted, packed and distributed by Community Coffee Company, Baton Rouge, LA." The standard ground coffee foil container, 12 ounces, is bright red and sits next to all the other big-name coffee brands at some grocery stores here in Texas. It's generally priced about a dollar cheaper than the others. I generally buy it and freeze it when it goes on sale for $3.99 / 12-oz package which seems to be every three to six months, vs the $8.99-plus that one can pay for Starbucks.

On January 5, 2017, I wrote:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Not too many days ago I suggested the sectors that would do well in the market under Trump. Today, in The Wall Street Journal: defense firms cash in amid soaring demand for munitions.
One of my themes on the blog is what sectors will do well (for investors) in the coming year and where/how President Trump can act without Senate interference. I don't recall if the latter is already posted or if I've kept it in draft status until I can beef it up a bit.

But getting back to defense, the link above was to an on-line story a couple of days ago. Today, it is on page B4, of the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal: "For missile makers, US demand surges." The makers of precision-guided missiles and bombs are running to keep up with demand as the US military bombards Islamic State from the air. Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and BAE Systems....

The article is a full half-page.

Trump is the sort of guy that understands precision-guided missiles and bombs. I'm not sure his predecessor did. Trump sees things through the eyes of a pragmatist and realist; Obama sees through the eyes of one who felt the apology tour should never end. My hunch is that ROE (rules for engagement) will change under a pragmatist and a realist.


The inside temperature is now a toasty 69 degrees; the heat is off. The pasta is boiling on the stove. I've had my coffee, waffles, and bacon. The Venetian blinds are open, and a dusting of snow from yesterday remains on the ground. The bright sunlight and light snow reminds me a bit of our days in England many decades ago, or Germany.

To the "Review" and "Off Duty" sections of The Wall Street Journal

I mentioned, I think it was yesterday, that I no longer drink martinis. I spent six months to a year trying to figure out martinis and once I had, I lost interest. I suppose I will go back to them some day but not any time soon. So it was quite coincidental to see a huge graphic of Mulholland Gin in the middle of page D4 accompanying an article by Ms Ottessa Moshfegh, "Love (And Gin) in a Thirsty Landscape."

For a romantic, it's a nice read. I enjoyed it. It brought back great memories. It's a three-quarter page essay and despite the emphasis on gin, Ottessa actually writes very little about Mulholland Gin, but she supplies some nice recipes along the way. The essay, it appears, was written for a number of reasons, perhaps mostly to plug her new book that will be coming out January 17, 2017.

[Later, 2:06 p.m. Central Time: I was curious about the Mulholland Gin. It turns out that it may be a new offering. Just yesterday, of all things, January 6, 2017, this over at the "bevindustry" site:
As part of its debut, Mulholland Distilling introduced Mulholland New World Gin in Los Angeles and Whole Foods Market stores in Southern California. Distilled six times from 100 percent non-GMO corn, the gluten-free gin begins with a bright cucumber and juniper on the nose, the company says. On the tongue, an intense burst of lime is followed by a mix of lavender florals, which are rounded out with juniper and notes of citrus and vanilla. The 48 percent alcohol-by-volume gin is packaged in 750-ml glass bottles that have a suggested retail price of $26.99.
Yes, here it is, from November 9, 2016:
Mulholland Distilling has launched new American Whiskey, Vodka and New World Gin in Los Angeles, with plans for larger distribution in the near future.
Perhaps that was mentioned by Ottessa, but I did not see that, but what a clever advertisement. I wonder if she was paid for the 3/4 page ad? LOL.]

And then just below that a recipe for spaghetti squash carbonara. Considering I have spaghetti boiling al dente on the stove, this was timely. I will do carbonara but probably not squash.


By the way, if you haven't seen this video, it is worth watching. It was spontaneous, and it has gone viral.

It should be noted that the woman at the beginning of the video, who identifies herself as a student at the law school, was a "plant." In fact, she was a 30-year-old agitator who tried to stir things up at the conference, and to say the least, she accomplished that, but not the way she intended.

I was reminded of this video when I read the article "A Prison Without A Roof," by Bartle Bull, a review of The House of the Dead, by Daniel Beer. This is the story of the Russian exile system that was the greatest sustained machine of evil in human history. Most convicts first spent a year shuffling eastward in rags and irons along the 6,000 miles of the Great Siberian Post Road.

And, yes, the dots connect between this book and the embedded video.

There is a review of a biography of Wilson Pickett on page C5, which was good, but it was made all the better because some time ago a reader of the blog introduced me to Fame Studios, Muscle Shoals, Alabama, and suggested a DVD which is now one of my favorite DVDs. Wilson Pickett, it turns out, recorded at Muscle Shoals, among other recording studies.

Mustang Sally, Wilson Pickett

On page C6 in a story about a lost city in the Honduras, the writer mentions that one-half of the expedition team contracted the world's second-deadliest parasitic disease. I was curious. What is the world's second-deadliest parasitic disease? Malaria, of course, is first. (Though, some would argue, socialism.)

Answer: mucocutaneous leishmaniasis.

From wiki:
Leishmaniasis  is a disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania and spread by the bite of certain types of sandflies.
Protozoa. Wow, if you really want to get confused about something, try figuring out protozoa.

Part of the problem is the history of biology, how things have changed over time, how names have changed, how the classification system of living things has changed. And it has happened within my lifetime which makes it even more difficult to keep up.

The Cell: A Visual Tour of the Building Block of Life, Jack Challoner, c. 2015, has been a great help. From my notes from the book, "Famous Protists," I included Plasmodium (malaria); Toxoplasma gondii (toxoplasmosis); Cryptosporidium parvum (cryptosporidiosis); but, I failed to mention Leishmania (leishmaniasis) -- but that was technically not my fault. It was not mentioned by Challoner.

It is amazing how "awful" these protozoan parasites are. They are members of the "Apicomplexa" phylum. Wiki says:
The Apicomplexa (also called Apicomplexia) are a large phylum of parasitic alveolates. Most of them possess a unique form of organelle that comprises a type of plastid called an apicoplast, and an apical complex structure. The organelle is an adaptation that the apicomplexan applies in penetration of a host cell.
But to finish on a pleasant note, Christopher Kimball reviews Eight Flavors, Sarah Lohman, a book about .... yes, food. Eight flavors to be exact: black pepper; vanilla; soy sauce; chili; and, I guess the reviewer ran out of room because the other four flavors were not mentioned, unless they were mentioned in passing while mentioning the others.

The pasta is complete, the house is getting cold again (need to turn on the heat), and time to check the football schedule

Week 1: January 1, 2017 -- January 7, 2017

Winter storm Helena continues. Weather Channel is reporting that the storm is "way worse" on the mid-Atlantic coast than predicted. It looks like Norfolk, VA, is being particularly hard hit and is the top weather story of the hour. Every state in the Lower 48 is reporting temperatures lower than 32 degrees including five reporting stations in northern Florida (the panhandle). According to Dr Roy Spencer:
The spatial average temperature over the Lower 48 at 6 a.m. is 11 deg. F, which is fully 9 deg. (!) colder than at any time last winter, which occurred twice in January of 2016.
There is pressure on the president to issue an executive order to a) rename Donner Pass: Kennedy Crossing; and, b) ban fracking on the pass. The latter is more likely than the former.

These cold temperatures would affect the global warming models, but the warmists throw out "out-liers" when it comes to temperatures, and under the warming models, winter storms are considered out-liers.

In the DAPL area: 47 inches of snow so far in Dickinson and winter is only getting started; and Bismarck area breaks snowfall record by 6 inches, and, again, winter is only getting started. All predicted by the warmists. And the Kennedys.

The next-named winter storm will be Iras: Iras is a Shakespearean baby name. In Antony and Cleopatra, Iras: lady attending on Cleopatra. [Update, later, 8:49 a.m. Central Time: Weather Channel has just mentioned winter storm Iras.]

The big story in the Bakken this spring: flooding. And, no, fracking sand will not be used to fill sand bags.

With regard to energy, the big story is in Mexico on a number of fronts, including the 20% increase in the price of gasoline; Mexico's gasoline imports;

The biggest non-weather and non-energy story in North Dakota had to do with drones: FAA has granted permission to the Northern Plains UAS Test Site to conduct beyond-visual-line-of-sight operations at Grand Sky technology park on Grand Forks Air Force Base. This is a huge story.

Barely 800 oil and gas permits issued in 2016 by the NDIC; compare to 3,000 during the height of the boom
Oasis reports huge well (but not particularly remarkable for Bakken 2.0)
EOG returning to the eastern fringe of the Bakken; and, here, with graphics;
Update on an "old" Fidelity (MDU) well restored to production by Kaiser-Francis

Production Increase After Coming Back On-Line
CLR well shows four-fold production increase after coming back on-line after neighboring well(s) fracked

Are operators now deducting transportation charges at the wellhead?

Other formations
Update on a recently drilled Tyler well  

EIA has released its annual energy outlook, 2017: US will be net exporter of energy through 2050 
net crude oil US imports increasing
The Williston Herald releases its top ten stories for 2016
Winter storm shuts down North Dakota; truly a fly-over state; and, here; and, here

How oil companies survived two death-star events  
Comments on 2016; comments and predictions on 2017 

Current Exploration In The Gulf Of Mexico Not Encouraging -- January 7, 2017

Quick! What's the average family income for a Costco shopper? For a Sam's Club shopper? $120,000 vs $80,000 respectively. See link below. 

Road To New England


February 1, 2017, EIA graphic via Twitter:

Original Post
Another aging nuclear power plant to close by 2021. Just another story? No big deal? This power plant provides 25% of electricity for New York City and Westchester County. No plans to replace that electricity have yet been announced. Reading between the lines: the license will be extended another 15 years. This is nothing more than a political effort to increase off-shore/on-shore wind:
"If we can shut-down Indian Point under an agreement that enhances public safety and kick-starts investment into safer and more reliable renewable energy sources, that will be a major victory for the millions of New Yorkers who live in the region," Schneiderman said in a statement.
Demise of Big Box Stores

Demise of big box stores tracked here. News:
Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3954166189180

Kostelecky: more than just wells named after Kostelecky

Not much, but nice to see. EPD increases distribution, up to 41 cents; previous, 40.5 cents. The yield is currently almost 6%. A big whoop.

Statoil may stop drilling in US Gulf of Mexico. Rigzone data points:
  • costly search may end
  • Statoil has been part of several discoveries in the region as a junior license partner but the company has failed to strike oil in the drilling campaigns it has operated, despite spending billions of dollars
  • latest Statoil well in the region drilled some 18 months ago; no spuds planned for 2017
  • Statoil says no decision has been made whether to continue drilling in the Gulf
Sounds like the decision has already been made even if Statoil says otherwise.

I assume Statoil is not an out-lier. If so, this increases the relative importance of US on-shore shale. 

OPEC, Russian oil cuts. Reuters' John Kemp provides his analysis
  • the pledge: a cut of 1.7 million bodp in the first six months of 2017 (from "what" was not stated; oil producers maxed out production at time pledge to cut was made)
  • Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are expected to implement their cuts immediately
  • outside of OPEC, the cuts will be phased in gradually
  • cuts should be felt at the start of the summer driving season (why does this not surprise me)
  • underlying growth in oil consumption in all regions around the world should also affect supple-demand rebalancing
  • the pledge did not extend past the initial six months, but they have the option (LOL)
  • most traders expect rebalancing to be backloaded; futures prices trading in contango in the first half of 2017, but then moving to level or backwardation in the second half
  • the Mideast has greater flexibility in managing production; Russia less due to Arctic drilling
  • much more at the link 
By the way, this is probably why Gartman opined that oil would not go above $55 for years:
  • the pledge to cut is for only the first six months
  • producers maxed production just before cuts
  • historically, some OPEC nations cheat (why would it be different this time?)
  • Russia's ability to cut is more challenging for technical reasons; by the time Russian cuts start to be noticeable, OPEC may go back to max production
So, although I called out Gartman for his prediction, in the big scheme of things he may not be far off.

By the way, if John Kemp is correct, and the cuts become noticeable at the start of the summer driving season, President Trump won't wait six years (like his predecessor) to figure out what to do.

#7 In The 20-To-Go Countdown

The Party's Over, Willie Nelson

The Periodic Table Page

From Macrumors, Apple will start to use IGZO displays for its MacBook Pro later this year (2017):
  • IGZO: indium gallium zinc oxide
  • often simply referred to as Metal Oxide (I can understand why)

I just saw a commercial on the Weather Channel. A woman with high cheekbones was curious about her ancestry. She was most surprised to find she was 26% "Native American." It's hard to believe someone could be 1/4th Indian and not know it. Visiting Grandma at Standing Rock should have been a clue.

One wonders if Pocahontas has ever considered genetic analysis?

By the way, speaking of Pocahontas. After watching CNBC for quite some time this week, I'm under the impression that Queen Elizabeth, as others call her, will soon be a voice in the wilderness. She will get a lot of TV time only because there are so few members left in Pelosi's Party but her opinions won't amount to much.