Wednesday, November 6, 2019

XTO To Use Wells As Injection Wells As Part Of An Enhanced Oil Recovery Pilot Operation -- November 6, 2019

From the NDIC dockets for November,  2019.

Thursday, November 25, 2019 (these are cases, not permits):
  • 28131, XTO, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, to use wells located in section 33-148-96 and section 4-147-96  as injection wells for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; Dunn County
  • 28132, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken; to use wells located in sections 27/34-148-96 as injection wells for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation;
Wells in Bear Creek, sections 27/34-148-96:
  • eleven horizontal wells:
    • 32479, 2,701, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, middle Bakken, t7/18; cum 337K 9/19;
    • 32480,
    • 32481,
    • 32499,
    • 32500,
  • 32367
  • 32366,
  • 29673,
  • 29672,
  • 18294, 341, XTO, Werre Trust 44-34H, Bear Creek, t3/10; cum 549K 9/19;
  • 29871,

Wells in Cedar Coulee, section 33-148-96 and section 4-147-96:
  • five horizontal wells:
    • 16914, 570, XTO, Martin Federal 31X-33H, middle Bakken, t5/08; cum 321K 9/19;
    • 25335, 2,616, XTO, Martin Federal 21X-33B, middle Bakken, t5/14; cum 397K 9/19;
    • 25334,
    • 25533
    • 25532,

      EOG -- 3Q19 -- Earnings

      EOG press release here.
      • exceeded crude oil production target range
      • raised full-year 2019 crude oil growth target from fourteen to fifteen percent
      • CAPEX near low end of target range
      • generated "significant" net cash from operating activities and free cash flow
      • reduced year-to-date well costs by five percent
      • added 1,700 net premium locations to inventory now totaling 10,500 locations
      • net premium locations now total over fourteen years of drilling inventory 
        • new Delaware Basin Wolfcamp M and Third Bone Spring plays add 1.6 billion boe net resource potential
        • "highly economic" at $40 oil and flat $2.50 natural gas price (company's definition of premium inventory)
        • Wolfcamp M: an initial 855 net premium drilling locations; net resource of 1.0 billion boe across its 193,000 net acre position
        • Third Bone Spring:
          • 585 million boe across its 200,000 net acre position 
      • net income for 3Q19: 
        • $615 million vs $1.2 billion one year ago
        • $1.06/share vs $2.05/share one  year ago
        • adjusted: $1.13/share vs $1.75/share a year ago
      • the Bakken was not mentioned in the press release except in the financial tables (mentioned once)
      • brought 15 gross wells on line in the quarter
      • brought 13 net wells on line in the quarter
      • lateral length: 10,600 feet (longer than any other play)
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      Coloring Inside The Lines


      Quarterly Lease Sales Results For North Dakota Have Been Posted -- Northern Energy Buying North Dakota -- November, 2019

      Quarterly lease sales results have been released for November, 2019. Link here.

      Note: no parcels sold in Mountrail County or Dunn County.

      Northern Energy Corporation headquarters in Bismarck, ND.

      Disclaimer: I do this quickly. There will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

      Billings:
      • 46 parcels, more or less
      • most parcels, 40-acres, 80-acres; and, 160-acres
      • low bids overall, but best bonus: $366/acre, 40 acres, Norra Resources, LLC, section 26-144-98
      • all parcels except five went to North Energy Corporation  
      • one parcel to Douglas Morton
      • three parcels to Norra Resources, LLC
      • one parcel to Petro-Hunt, LLC
      Burke:
      • 18 parcels
      • most parcels 40-acre, 80-acre, and 160-acre
      • most parcels for $2.00/acre
      • best bonus:  $206/acre for two separate parcels
      • 1.72 acres, section 29-91-162
      • 10 acres, section 29-91-162
      • all parcels except four went to North Energy Corporation
      • one parcel to Lynx Oil Company
      • one parcel to Douglas Morton
      • two parcels to Norra Resources, LLC
      Divide:
      • 3 parcels
      • every parcel: 80 acres
      • bonus: $26/acre (2); and, $36/acre (1)
      • all parcels went to Northern Energy Corporation
      McKenzie:
      • 21 parcels
      • almost all parcels were160 acres
      • bonuses as low as $2.00
      • best bonus: $512/acre -- 7.47 acres in section 18-146-98
      • all parcels except one went to North Energy Corporation
      • one parcel went to Lynx Oil Company
      Williams:
      • 8 parcels 
      • 77 acres to 160 acres
      • best bonus: $663/acre -- SE4-section 34-158-96
      • every parcel: Northern Energy Corporation

      Number Of Active Rigs In The Bakken Continue To Fall -- Now Down To 53 -- Slawson With Two New Permits -- November 6, 2019

      Gasoline demand: link here.



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      Back to the Bakken

      Flashback: seven years old, but still a great video

      Active rigs:

      $56.5511/6/201911/06/201811/06/201711/06/201611/06/2015
      Active Rigs5366523764

      Three new permits, #37160 - #37162, inclusive:
      • Operators: Slawson (2); WPX
      • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail); Spotted Horn (McKenzie)
      • Comments: 
        • Slawson has permits for a two-well Pike Federal / Motune Federal pad in section 10-151-02, Big Bend oil field
        • WPX has a permit for a single Pronghorn well in section 27-150-94; Spotted Horn oil field;
      Five permits canceled:
      • EOG (3): three Van Hook permits in Mountrail County
      • QEP (2): two MHA permits, both in Mountrail County
      Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
      • 35275, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 41-17H, two sections, Truax, t--; cum --;
      • 35274, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 41-17TFHU, four sections, Truax, t--; cum --;

      Brazil Off-Shore Auction A Total Disaster -- Bloomberg -- November 6, 2019

      Link here. Brazil offshore auction a "total disaster." Look at the lede --
      Brazil’s largest-ever auction of oil deposits flopped, sending the real tumbling, after state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA did most of the bidding while other major oil companies stayed away.
      • Brazilian currency slumps after two blocks sold to Petrobras at the minimu
      • two other blocks go unsold; Exxon among companies not bidding 

      Brazil is not a "short-cycle" story. Shale changed things. When I first started investing, back in 1984, oil companies were "valued" based on two criteria:
      • earnings
      • reserves
      In addition, investors took the long view. That was then. Today, millennials, growing up in a world that has only twelve more years, are in a hurry. They don't have a long view. They need to see a return on their investments now: share appreciation and dividends. Does it matter the size of XOM's reserves in 2030 if the world ceases to exist in 2035 and/or if the world no longer uses oil in 2025? For companies to be relevant today, they need to provide an "immediate" return on investment for millennnial "investors." Brazil is not going to give Exxon that return on investment in the next six years.
      ************************************
      The Brazilian Story Is Huge

      Re-posting: this commentary is linked at the sidebar at the right. It's from the Dallas Fed which, I would think, would know a bit about the oil industry and particularly, the US shale industry. There's a slight flaw in their analysis but that's fine. It should not affect their conclusions.

      And their conclusions are summed up in one graphic which I find absolutely amazing. Spend some time on it. Note that the data is biannual -- every two years (2009, 2011, 2013, etc. through 2019).


      Tag: breakeven points.

      Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 13

      For first twelve pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

      I no longer track these wells:

      September 7, 2019: 17086, 560, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-15H, t11/08; cum 340K 9/19; off line as of 3/18; remains off line 5/19; just came back on line 7/19; lots of activity in the area which would explain on-again / off-again / on-again

      August 20, 2019: #21078; back on line 7/19; just beginning to produce again;

      August 20, 2019: #22547;

      August 11, 2019: 15167 -- a re-entered well to target the Bakken; Billings County. See this post. At 143 bbls/month for a full month, 8/19, doesn't seem like much of a success. North Range Resources.

      May 29, 2019:
      • 34486, 1,244, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5BXC, Antelope-Sanish, t3/19; cum 146K 9/19;
      • 34487, 857, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5FXG2, Antelope-Sanish, t5/19; cum 90K 9/19;
        • neighboring wells
          • 28184, 2,171, off line since 10/18; t11/15; cum 265K 9/19; active as of 4/19;
          • 28185, 2,712, off line since 10/18; t11/15; cum 274K 9/19; did have one day of production in 3/19; back on line as of 5/19;
          • 28183, 2,459, off line since 10/18; t11/15; cum 333K 9/19; did have one day of production in 3/19; back on line as of 5/19;
          • 28255, 2,513, off line since 9/18; t10/15; cum 290K 9/19; produced water three days in 3/19, but no oil production;
          • 18435, 2,376, off line since 10/18; t3/11; cum 317K 9/19; active as of 4/19; definite jump in production but not worth a stand-alone post;
          • 28256, 1,804, off line since 10/18; t10/15; cum 204K 9/19; active as of 4/19;
          • 28257, 2,59, off line since 10/18; t10/15; cum 287K 9/19; active as of 4/19;
      May 12, 2019: These wells about a mile to the west have been off line for one to two months, and are still off line, link here:
      • 18948, runs south, 1,912, WPX, Kyw 27-34H, Spotted Horn, t10/10; cum 355K 9/19; was IA, now active again in 7/19; nice jump in production;
      • 22629, runs north, 180, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HB, Spotted Horn, t7/12; cum 403K 9/19; back on line as of 4/19; intermittent production; continue to follow;
      October 21, 2018: #17254; a nice QEP Henderson well taken off line 3/18; neighboring wells fracked and are huge; still off line as of 12/18 and on IA status; goes to AB 5/19;

      September 29, 2018: #17086; great well but taken off-line 4/18; suggesting other activity in the area; remains IA 4/19; AB, 5/19; now, 7/19, A; definitely check 8/19 production; nice production, but no huge jump;

      June 12, 2017: an older well, #16730 (API: 33-053-02815) runs right next to two recently fracked wells; new production data not yet available; check production data in a couple of months; still off-line as of 6/19; the other two wells (see this post). One day of production for #16730 in 6/18; one day of production, 2/19; still off line 6/19;
      • 32635, 476, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 394K 7/19; -- just went off line 7/18; back on line 8/18; huge well; (#16730 -- still off-line)
      • 32628, 540, BR, Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 470K 7/19; (#16730 -- still off-line); huge well -- deserves a stand-alone post sometime;
      September 21, 2015: why did this on go inactive - 
      • 18177, IA/AB/IA/1,844, BR, Bryce 31, Westberg field, t10/09; cum 255K 4/14. Update, October 17, 2016 sundry form -- a stuck coil tubing; cut at 9,855 feet. Low commodity prices make fishing uneconomical. Will follow yearly until commodity prices recover. [Active again as of 5/17, but just for one day; active for just one day 12/17.][Active again: 1 day in 1/18. Back off-line the entire month of 2/18] No change, 2/19; off line. On line for one day, 5/19, but no production; 6/19 -- remains offline; 

      EIA Weekly Crude Oil Report -- Back To Where We Were One Year Ago -- November 6, 2019

      Link here.
      • US crude oil in storage, weekly change: increased by a whopping 7.9 million bbls
        • WTI: $57.72 -- up 49 cents (at 10:37 a.m. EST)
        • WTI: $56.22 -- down $1.01; down 1.76% -- 12:06 p.m. EST -- took a bit of time to re-act?
      • US crude oil in storage: at 446.8 million bbls, about 3% above the five-year average, and the 5-year average has been trending higher for the past several years
      • refineries operating at a very low 86% of their capacity
      • most interesting: jet fuel product supplies was up 7.5% compared with same four-week period last year -- jet-setting global warming nuts flying more and more, apparently  
      Re-balancing (note: weeks 6 - 42 are "hidden" to keep the size of the spreadsheet manageable).

      Week
      Week Ending
      Change
      Million Bbls Storage
      Week 0
      November 21, 2018
      4.9
      446.9
      Week 1
      November 28, 2018
      3.6
      450.5
      Week 2
      December 6, 2018
      -7.3
      443.2
      Week 3
      December 12, 2018
      -1.2
      442.0
      Week 4
      December 19, 2018
      -0.5
      441.5
      Week 5
      December 28, 2018
      0.0
      441.4
      Week 43
      September 18, 2019
      1.1
      417.1
      Week 44
      September 26, 2019
      2.4
      419.5
      Week 45
      October 2, 2019
      3.1
      422.6
      Week 46
      October 9, 2019
      2.9
      425.6
      Week 47
      October 17, 2019
      9.3
      434.9
      Week 48
      October 23, 2019
      -1.7
      433.2
      Week 49
      October 30, 2019
      5.7
      438.9
      Week 50
      November 6, 2019
      7.9
      446.8

      Note: today's storage number of 446.8 million bbls is almost exactly what it was one year ago, November 21, 2018, when it was 446.9 million bbls. I don't see a lot of re-balancing.

      Saudi Arabian imports: it would be interesting to see who in the US is buying Saudi oil. The only two "locations" of which I would know: a) California; and, b) possibly Saudi's refinery along the Gulf Coast.


      Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 6, 2019

      Texas: the state has no income tax. The constitution is very, very clear on this issue -- no income tax on individuals. But Texans wanted to make sure the law was "ironclad." Yesterday, Texans went to the polls to vote on Proposition 4 to clearly state, "no income tax on individuals. The proposition passed overwhelmingly, about 80% for, 20% against.

      Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

      Re-posting from yesterday:
      Under Trump's watch: the first trade surplus in petroleum in more than forty years helped the US post a lower trade deficit in September compared to August, 2019. 
      Here's the graphic, sent to me by a reader late last night, link here (original source here):


      US gasoline imports:

       

      Market:
      • futures: pretty much flat
      • BKH: missed estimates on revenues, earnings; shares drop almost 5%
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      Reading History Of India

      Increased Density In The Bakken -- November 6, 2019

      An 18-well pad in Elm Tree. The wells:
      • 37060, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 7-9H, Elm Tree,
      • 37059, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 8-9H1, Elm Tree,
      • 37058, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree,
      • 37057, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9H, Elm Tree,
      • 37056, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 11-9H2, Elm Tree,
      • 37055, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H, Elm Tree,
      • 37054, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 13-9H2, Elm Tree,
      • 37053, conf, CLR, Angus Federal 14-9HSL1, Elm Tree,
      • 37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree,
      • 37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, Elm Tree,
      • 37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2, Elm Tree,
      • 37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H, Elm Tree,
      • 37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, Elm Tree,
      • 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree,
      • 37046, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 11-16H2, Elm Tree,
      • 37045, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 12-16H, Elm Tree,
      • 37044, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 2-10HSL, Elm Tree,
      • 37043, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 13-16HSL2, Elm Tree,

      • 23493, 568, CLR, Simmental Federal 4-16H, Elm Tree, t6/13; cum 319K 9/19;
      • 23494, 360, CLR, Angus Federal 5-9H, Elm Tree, t6/13; cum 462K 9/19;
      • 23495, 240, CLR, Simmental Federal 3-16H, Elm Tree, t6/13; cum 351K 9/19;
      • 23496, 300, CLR, Angus Federal 4-9H, Elm Tree, t5/13; cum 366K 9/19;

      To date (9/19):
      • middle Bakken: 13
      • Three Forks, first bench: 3
      • Three Forks, second bench: 6
      Earlier posts:
      The graphics:




      ******************************************************
      On Fire



      CLR Reports An 81-Stage Frack -- November 6, 2019

      The well:
      • 33963, 2,347, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, 81 stages; 15.6 million lbs, Elm Tree, t9/19; cum 20K 9/19; 
      Production profile:
      PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
      BAKKEN9-201912175701687612271330921636016732
      BAKKEN8-20190000000
      BAKKEN7-20190000000
      BAKKEN6-20190000000
      BAKKEN5-20195224622463144363803638
      BAKKEN4-20190000000

      From the well file:
      • spacing: 1920 acres
      • Three Forks, first bench
      • total depth: 26,725 feet
      Completion strategies in the Bakken: tracked here.

      The graphics:



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      Purple Sage


      Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- November 6, 2019

      Earnings on tap today: QCOM, EOG. After hours:
      • during the day, both were down; EOG was down almost 4%
      • market to close in about three minutes
      • I was lucky on FANG; my day always said "better to be lucky, than to be smart"
      • QCOM: wow, wow, wow, -- it just went green -- up 1.62% -- 3:02 p.m. CST -- somebody knows something?
        • there it is: QCOM beats; QCOM surges; up 5%; up $4.09
        • $4.8 billion vs $4.7 billion forecast
        • 78 cents vs 71 cents forecast
        • guide a bit stronger than expected; well-positioned as 5G accelerates in 2020
        • back in with Apple
      • EOG flat after hours (3:02 p.m. CST); great report
        • earnings here
        • shares up slightly after hours, after big loss during the day
      Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

      ************************************
      Back to the Bakken

      Active rigs:

      $57.1811/6/201911/06/201811/06/201711/06/201611/06/2015
      Active Rigs5566523764

      Wells coming off the confidential list yesterday, today -- Wednesday, November 6, 2019: 23 for the month; 118 for the quarter:
      • 35437, conf, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield 156-97-1918H-1,
      • 35283, conf, Enerplus, Mulberry 149-93-21B-22H-TF
      • 34947, conf, Whiting, Moline 41-15-1H,
      • 34926, conf, CLR, Collison 9-23H1,
      Tuesday, November 5, 2019: 19 for the month; 114 for the quarter:
      • 34721, 696, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25E 6B, 50 stages; 6 million lbs; Elidah, t5/19; cum 160K 9/19;
      • 33963, 2,347, CLR, Hereford Federal 14-17H1, 81 stages; 15.6 million lbs, Elm Tree, t9/19; cum 20K 9/19;
      RBN Energy: a step-by-step guide to making an international LPG trade, part 2.
      In October, some 45 MMbbl of liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs) were loaded onto ships and sent out from U.S. ports, more than 80% of it from Texas Gulf Coast terminals. Most propane and normal butane exports are tied to long-term deals between U.S. suppliers and overseas buyers, but a substantial share involves third-party LPG traders who cut deals to buy LPG, arrange for shipping and terminaling, then sell the LPG to buyers in distant lands. How exactly does all this happen? Today, we continue a series on how U.S.-sourced LPG makes its way to Asia, Europe and other key export markets.
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      Portrait Of A Young Artist At Work