Disclaimer -- COTD -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49339AMZN.

Rhetorical question: is it just me or are you seeing the same thing I see? Every time a CNBC talking head asks if this is a bubble, one minute later we see another headline like this: Amazon hits a new record high after a $38-billion deal partnering with OpenAI is announced.  

And then this ticker, up over 11% in five days:

By the way, to put this $38 billion in perspective:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.

***************************************

The Movie Page

I think I’ve watched The Third Man three times today. It seems to get better with each viewing. 

 

If there is nothing more to this movie than what it seems, I am very, very disappointed in Graham Greene. My hunch is that there is much more to this movie than folks realize. I think it was highly influenced by Casablanca; in fact there's a scene in which the two protagonists meet in a bar called the "Casanova." But I think there's even more. 

 

The opening scene and closing scene are so similar on so many levels, it leads me to believe the 95% of the movie between these opening scene and the closing scene is a "dream." The writer did indeed go to Vienna to "find" a story but while driving into the city from the train station passed an unescorted woman walking in his direction. I his mind, he say the story and the story became The Third Man.  

 

Link here.  Undated. At least 2007 or later. Maybe 2025.

 

Bio tidbits for Graham Greene: link here.

 

 

 

 

BRK-B -- Cash Is King? In This Low-Interest Environment? I Don't Think So -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49338BUFFETT.

What's going on?

 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.  

Amazon -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49336AMZN.

The other day in a throwaway line to a reader, I wrote: I don't lose sleep when I add new money to any of these three companies: WMT, MCD, or AMZN.

With that in mind:

 

To put that deal in perspective:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.  

X-Files -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49335INVESTING.

WMB: 3Q25 -- earnings mixed; aggressive guidance.

Texas gas: photo with this caption --

Liberty Energy preparing to frac at Comstock Resources Hutto pad in Leon County, Texas. The new Bossier and Haynesville shale play north of Houston is delivering wells with some 20 Bcf in just three years—more than 3 Bcf per 1,000 lateral feet—and companies like Comstock Resources, Mitsui, Aethon and more are taking the lead on exploring this new frontier. (Comstock Resources).

Comstock setting records:

Dallas Cowboys Tonight, AMD Tomorrow -- Monday, November 3, 2025

Locator: 49334AMD.

Updates

Later, 10:12 p.m. CT: Dallas -- 

• last week a loss to Denver Broncos, 44 - 24
• tonight, a huge loss to the Arizona Cardinals (3 - 5), the lopsidedness of the game was much worse than the score suggested, 27 -17 (it looked like a 44 - 17 game; three turnovers including two fumbles; one interception by Prescott / the Dallas Cowboys; first loss on the home field. This was bad!

Original Post 

Meanwhile, this is simply bananas, link here. 

3Q25 earnings tomorrow:

Ticker today, six-month chart:

Vs BRK-B, six month chart: up 160% vs down 0.5% -- 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.  

AI Contrarian -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49333AI.

Link here. 

I guess we can put the marker in the sand. Analyst says to sell Palantir and Nvidia on November 3, 2025.

Thoughts from the Palantir CEO on 3Q25 earnings: link here. 

Meanwhile, this is simply bananas, link here. 

Ticker today, six-month chart:

Vs BRK-B, six month chart: up 160% vs down 0.5% -- 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.  

Five New Permits -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49332B.

WTI: $60.99.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits (includes #42443 from last Friday, October 31, 2025):  

• 42443, loc/conf, Phoenix Operating, M Johnson 27-26-25 6FH-LL, Zahl, NWSW 27-159-101, to be sited 1842 FSL 475 FWL;
• 42444, loc/conf, SOGC, Forest 2-1 1HLE, Lone Butte, SESE 3-147-98, to be sited 619 FSL 486FWL;
• 42445, loc/conf, SOGC,Yauch 3-4-LEH6, Lone Butte, SESE 3-147-98, to be sited 638 FSL 459WL;
• 42446, loc/conf, Petro-Hunt, Hoiby 158-94-4C-3-4H, Powers Lake, NESE 5-158-94, to be sited 1600 FSL 300 FEL;
• 42447, loc/conf, Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 158-94-10B-15-1HS, East Tioga, NWNW 10-158-94, to be sited 298 FNL  336 FWL;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as compled:

• 41343, 621, MRO, Sattier USA 34-7H, Dunn County;
• 41518, 496, MRO, Patton 44-12H, Dunn County; 

New operator:

• Devon Energy acquires fifteen wells in the Bakken. 

Monday -- November 3, 2025

 Locator: 49331B.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.26. Link here.

New wells reporting: link here.

RBN Energy: link here. 

To get a sense of what's going on in Texas in the oil and gas sector one needs to read the RBN Energy blog today. Link here. Archived.

Dear Diary -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49330DIARY. 

I'll get around to blogging later. No sense of urgency. 

I just got back from Portland, Oregon -- my annual Halloween trip to see the twins who were born in March, 2020, literally the first month of the Covid-19 lock-down.

Except for what I see while riding the light rail from the airport to their house out in east Portland (Gresham), I don't see much of the area whenever I visit. %But, wow, the fall colors are/were gorgeous.

The trip out and back on American Airlines was the best I've had. Not one delay. The TSA line was incredibly long in DFW on the day I flew out; no airline delays. The return trip out of Portland, even better. There were more TSA security folks than passengers being screened. We literally walked right on through. I have found no airport with better TSA screening than that at Portland. They were all in a great mood; all very, very friendly. One would never guess they haven't been paid in 30 days and nothing to suggest that will change this week.  

I blogged a bit while flying overnight and will start my usual schedule of blogging soon. No sense of urgency.

I think it's going to be a "down" day for Wall Street. I just took a glimpse of the indices for a moment. Then read a bit of non-financial news on the digital edition of TWSJ. 

I turned on CNBC (via Hulu) for the 11:00 a.m. CT show with "the judge." The show had just started but "the judge" apparently has/had the day off. At least he wasn't presiding. Immediately turned off the television. 

So, here I am. 

May's birthday is today. She's old enough to remember rotary-dial phones and the introduction of the first commercially-produced computer, UNIVAC. That was in 1951. Had she or her dad been interested in technology she would remember the news of UNIVAC that year, but she has no recollection. I just said she's "old enough to remember...", not that she actually remembers that. In 1951, she had other things on her mind, like sailing to Japan with her mother. Her dad, retired US Army, was already there, part of the "Occupation Forces," I suppose.

The Allied occupation of Japan occurred from 1945 to 1952, beginning after Japan's surrender in World War II and ending when the Treaty of San Francisco took effect, signed by 48 nations.  

Although a multinational Allied effort, it was primarily led by the United States under General Douglas MacArthur. 

• Start date: September 2, 1945, following Japan's surrender. 
• End date: April 28, 1952, when the Treaty of San Francisco went into effect.

Why would 48 nations need to sign that treaty? I figure maybe five at the outside. AI prompt / reply will answer that question. Countries like Yugoslavia were invited to sign but did not; they wanted to sign their own peace treaty with Japan. Okay. 

My wife and I celebrate our "150-year-birthday" this week. The 150 years is our "combined" ages. I am 74 years old. It's not appropriate to mention a woman's age, so I won't.

I think that's how they did it in the Bible -- why some men reportedly had such long lives at the time of their death -- they added the individual's age to the age of his wife (or wives). That would explain a lot. Not everyone did that. Methusela, reportedly 969 years of age when he died, must have had a lot of wives (more likely it was a typographical error by his scribe -- should have been 69 years old; or perhaps an inside joke). 

My wife and I always celebrate her birthday for a full week. It will be a short "week" this year; in four days she flies to Portland, Oregon.

This year, the week-long extravaganza (by the way, coincidentally, a word I introduced to the twins yesterday) begins with donuts from our favorite Japanese bakery just up the street. My wife's mother was Japanese; her dad, Mexican. 

Levi and Judah can already read the pre-K and kindergarten "Mat" books so it won't be long before they can spell extravaganza.

 

Speaking of extravaganza, their Halloween Haul was a real extravaganza. 

Whoever said / wrote that Halloween would be a bummer this year because of the cost of chocolate obviously never participated in Halloween festivities.  

I'm waiting for TWSJ article telling us it was a record year for chocolate sales. The 40+year-old white women need a lot of comfort food with Trump in office.  HSY is down 4% ($7) today. So, I guess I'm wrong on the chocolate sales. Silly me. 

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The Book Page

This may be my last day of re-reading The Wooden Horse: The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates, Keld Zeruneith, c. 2007. 

I've read it twice through -- but scanned much of it at the original readings. Now I go back and read a few chapters at a time over the course of a week or two. An incredible book. 

Most Obnoxious Article Of The Week -- Oilprice -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49329GLOBALWARMING. 

Link here.

Link here. 

How many coal plants is China building each year?

In GW, the size of the average new coal plant in China?

 In GW, what's the average size of a coal plant in the US?

When was the last new coal plant commissioned in the US?

How many new coal plants were commissioned in the US last year (2024)? 
 

So, for the sake of argument, let's assume the average size of a new coal plant in China is GW is 0.500 GW. With a total of 30 GW of new coal construction in 2024, that would yield 30 / 0.5 = 60 average size coal plants in the US. 

How The U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions On Tariffs -- WSJ -- November 3, 2025

Locator: 49328TARIFFS. 

Link here. 

Absolutely amazed how wrong CNBC talking heads have been and how wrong JPow and "the Fed" have been. Incredible. I'm not sure where Jim Cramer stood on this issue, but he never seemed worried. At all.

Inherited IRAs -- A Throwaway Article From CNBC -- But There Was A Nugget Of Gold Buried In The Story -- November, 2, 2025

Locator: 49327IRAS. 

The story is here. Nothing in the story caught my attention. All old reporting. Except for this nugget. Finally an answer to the question I've been asking for years: how much money is tied up in inherited IRAs. 

Inherited IRA planning is important amid the “great wealth transfer,” with more than $100 trillion expected to change hands through 2048. 

That's over $4 trillion / year for 23 years. Much of that money will be poured back into the US stock market. And the US government is going to take a lot back in taxes. 

From Septermber 11, 2025, link here. 

RMDs: so, anyway, were you able to answer the question I asked above -- where is all this money coming from?

Click on this tag: wealth transfer. My wife has already taken her RMD for this year; she's now watching her IRA surging -- gaining way more than she ever imagined and she's itching to make another withdrawal. It takes all I can do to have her wait to January 1, 2026, to take her 2026 RMD. I may or may not win that battle. LOL. But that's where a lot of this money is coming from.

Naysayers will say my argument is circular; I don't reply. The naysayers simply don't get it.

Clearing The Desktop; Big Story -- Trump - Xi -- November 2, 2025

Locator: 49326CHINA. 

Link here. 

Tea leaves: what is not being reported must be scaring the heck out of Putin and Modi. The last think Russia / India needs right now is an "unsigned" alliance between the US and China.

If the market was worried about tariffs all these months, the market should surge tomorrow. My hunch: it won't. Tariffs was a talking point for CNBC talking head but analysts knew that was bullsh*t.