Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Texas Oil Revolution -- May 25, 2021

 ***************************
Something

CLR's Norway Wells

The wells:

  • 34197, 2,086, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 235K 2/20;
  • 34198, 2,222, Norway 8-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 348K 3/20;
  • 34199, 1,981, Norway 7-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 245K 3/20;
  • 34200, 2,236, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 307K 2/20; off line;
  • 33725, 1.817, Norway 5-5H, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 110K 2/20; off line;
  • 33726, 1.995, Norway 4-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 308K 2/20; off line;
  • 33727, IA/2,232, Norway 3-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 308K 1/20; off line;
  • 33728, IA/2,127, Norway 2-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 182K 1/20; off line;
  • 19380, IA/497, Norway 1-5H, Fancy Buttes, t3/11; cum 340K 1/20; off line;
  • 37554, loc/NC, Norway 10-5HSL1, Dimmick Lake, 
  • 37555, loc/NC, Norway 11-5H, 
  • 37556, loc/NC, Norway 12-5H2
  • 37557, loc/NC, Norway 13-5H,

Standing Rock IT Director, Contractor Indicted On Bribery Charges -- Sources -- May 25, 2021

A reader alerted me to this story. A huge "thank you." I never would have seen it. 

Link here.

A federal grand jury has indicted the director of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s information technology department and an IT services contractor on three counts of bribery.

The May 12 indictment alleges Sven Schreiber accepted bribes of $5,000 or more twice in 2017 and once in 2019. He was arrested in North Dakota on a warrant issued in the U.S. District of South Dakota. The reservation straddles the Dakotas border. Officials ordered Schreiber to surrender his Swiss passport.

Schreiber became director of the IT department in 2015. He served as the tribe’s primary contact with outside vendors on the department’s bids, contracts and agreements, the indictment states. He was the point of contact with Arnaldo Piccinelli, who is listed on the LinkedIn professional networking site as the senior Java software engineer for the Florida-based company Hexagon Code Inc., which provided IT services to the tribe. The tribe made payments by check to Hexagon or Piccinelli directly at Schreiber’s direction, the document states.

Memo to self: file under "Karma." 

*******************************
Summer!

EOG With First Permits In The Bakken So Far In Calendar Year 2021 -- May 25, 2021

These are the first EOG permits so far in calendar year 2021 in the Bakken.

One has to ask why? 

Note the chronologic numbers (in purple). We talked about this years ago during the early days of the boom. 

LR = "long reach"; longer than the standard two-section horizontal; generally three sections; although a couple may go 3.5 sections so as not to leave orphaned oil behind;

Two new permits, #38324 - #38325, inclusive:

  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments: EOG has permits for two Liberty LR wells, both sited in NENW 23-151-91
    • one will be sited 750' FNL and 2380 FWL; Liberty LR 119-2320H, 3.5-mile-lateral
    • the other will be sited 700' FNL and 2380 ' FWL; Liberty LR 56-2317H, 3.5-mile-lateral; section line well;

Currently sited in that section:

  • 19720, 510, EOG, Liberty LR 14-23H, Parshall, t4/11; cum 310K 3/21;
  • 30593, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;
  • 30594, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;
  • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;
  • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Parshall, t3/11; cum 404K 3/21; 3.0-mile-lateral;
  • 18971, 894, EOG, Liberty LR 09-23H, Parshall, t9/10; cum 258K 3/21; spacing: E2 (half section) (320 acres)

The graphics;


***************************
Summer Fun

EOG With Two New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 25, 2021

Active rigs (one of the active rigs = SWD):

$65.89
5/25/202105/25/202005/25/201905/25/201805/25/2017
Active Rigs1914656550

Operators with active oi and gas rigs:

  • CLR (5): Gordon Federal, Gale, Jensen, Pasadena Federal, Harrisburg,
  • MRO (3): Jake, Goddard USA, Evans
  • Ovintiv (2): Rolfsrud, Rolfsrud
  • Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk
  • Enerplus: Lynx,
  • Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
  • Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson
  • Whiting: Lacey
  • Oasis: Cliff Federal
  • Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Burgess,
  • Hess: GO-Braaten

Two new permits, #38324 - #38235, inclusive:

  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments: EOG has permits for two Liberty LR wells, both sited in NENW 23-151-91
    • one will be sited 750' FNL and 2380 FWL;
    • the other will be sited 700' FNL and 2380 ' FWL

Seven permits renewed:

  • BR (3): three Patton permits in Dunn County;
  • Whiting (2): two Pennington permits in Mountrail County;
  • WPX: a Charles Blackhawk permit in Dunn County;
  • Hess: a BB-State A permit in McKenzie County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35086, drl/A, CLR, Morris 10-26H2, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 19,000';
  • 35085, drl/A, CLR, Morris 9-26H, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 18,898';
  • 35087, drl/A, CLR, Morris 11-26H, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 18,962';
  • 37557, loc/A, CLR, Norway 13-5H, Fancy Buttes, no production data, TD: 21,328'

Note: the CLR Morris wells are tracked here

Less Than One Million Vaccinations Reported In Most Recent 24-Hour Period -- May 25, 2021

CDC data here

Column 6: number of vaccinations given in previous 24 hours, CDC data.

Column 6 is derived from delta, column 3. 

Most recent 24-hour period, report dated Tuesday, May 25, 2021: only 897,972 doses administered. 



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans Considered Fully Vaccinated

Tuesday

May 25, 2021

287,788,872

164,378,258

131,078,608

897,972

102.66%

51.14%

Monday

May 24, 2021

286,890,900

163,907,827

130,615,797

1,170,314

102.66%

50.96%

Sunday

May 23, 2021

285,720,586

163,309,414

130,014,175

1,779,363

102.66%

50.72%

Saturday

May 22, 2021

283,941,223

162,470,794

129,006,463

2,345,872

102.65%

50.33%

Friday

May 21, 2021

281,595,351

161,278,336

127,778,250

2,198,101

102.65%

49.85%

Thursday

May 20, 2021

279,397,250

160,177,820

126,605,166

2,107,077

102.64%

49.39%

Wednesday 

May 19, 2021

277,290,173

159,174,963

125,453,423

1,754,966

102.65%

48.94%

Tuesday

May 18, 2021

275,535,207

158,365,411

124,455,693

2,609,796

102.64%

48.55%

Monday

May 17, 2021

272,925,411

157,132,234

122,999,721

-619,796

102.64%

47.99%

Sunday

May 16, 2021

273,545,207

157,485,596

123,282,685

2,712,865

102.64%

48.10%

Saturday

May 15, 2021

270,832,342

156,217,367

121,768,268

2,393,676

102.64%

47.51%

Friday

May 14, 2021

268,438,666

155,251,852

120,258,637

1,842,180

102.63%

46.92%

Thursday

May 13, 2021

266,596,486

154,624,231

118,987,308

1,915,642

102.63%

46.42%

Wednesday

May 12, 2021

264,680,844

153,986,312

117,647,439

1,548,283

102.63%

45.90%

Tuesday

May 11, 2021

263,132,561

153,448,316

116,576,359

1,533,180

102.62%

45.48%

Monday

May 10, 2021

261,599,381

152,819,904

115,530,780

1,882,392

102.58%

45.07%

Sunday

May 9, 2021

259,716,989

152,116,936

114,258,244

2,369,784

102.56%

44.58%

Saturday

May 8, 2021

257,347,205

151,315,505

112,626,771

2,567,872

102.56%

43.94%

Friday

May 7, 2021

254,779,333

150,416,559

110,874,920

2,805,581

102.56%

43.26%

 *********************************
BLM



Oil & Gas: Disrupted By Technology, But Many Investors & Companies Still Don't 'Get It' -- Contributor -- SeekingAlpha -- May 25, 2021

Link here.

Archived.

Keeping America Great -- May 25, 2021

Re-posting.

Keeping America great. This has to be frustrating for "the Squad" -- the US just keeps getting better and better (if one ignores what is going on in East St Louis, downtown Minneapolis, and Portland, OR, in general). In the last twenty-four hours, three stories highlighting how far the US has come:

  • semiconductor chips: there's a shortage right now but it's temporary and the US will come out of this stronger than ever;
  • apparently the US -- not France -- now leads the global fashion industry;
  • and then agriculture -- Deere, Caterpillar both with incredibly earnings and guidance and now Cargill -- barreling toward its most profitable year ever. The $4.3 billion in net income in the first nine months of its 2021 fiscal year already surpasses its best ever annual profit. 



 ***************************
The Good Ol' Days

Notes From All Over -- The 6:00 A.M. Portland, Oregon, Edition -- May 25, 2021

Merger mania: this from "WAR52" -- perhaps the most interesting observer over at Twitter. When he posts, I "listen." See replies here:

Nordstream 2: I'm too bored to talk about it now, but I will post this now for the "time-date" stamp: "the Merkel Markup."

Covid-19: The other day I mentioned that my data suggests that 50.3% of all Americans over the age of 16 are now fully vaccinated. The LA Times is now reporting that "half of Los Angeles County residents 16 and older are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19." With 15% to 30% having naturally-acquired immunity, it's hard to argue that herd immunity does not exist in southern California.

Restaurants in Chicago: can open but must have "vaccinated zones." Not a good idea. Will backfire. Unvaccinated will soon sport an armband of courage.  

Zones: speaking of zones, over the past few days I've noticed something in north Texas that I had never seen before: the highway system around DFW has a gazillion signs designating "zones." I have no idea what these zones are. They seem to be numbered completely randomly. Then, out at the DFW airport on Saturday, it appears that the zones designated "rider app" zones. If that makes sense. Let's see what google says. I think this may be what it's all about: Tarrant County (Ft Worth, Texas) ZIPZONE. This is quite amazing. Instead of some complicated address for the Uber driver, one simply types in a two-digit zipzone. And it appears each zip zone is ten to twenty feet of linear real estate.

PGA Tournament: most "shocking" scene -- thousands of fans mobbing Phil and Koepke going to the 18th green. And I didn't see anyone wearing a mask. Virtual signaling: post-tournament interview -- the interview stood twelve feet away when interviewing Phil. I assume they were both fully vaccinated.

Ten-year treasury: drops below 1.6%. Amazing.

Jim Cramer: lead story today? Apple. 

FAANGS: add Snowflake. 

SRE: in the news today -- SeekingAlpha --

  • Sempra Energy will own 96.4% of Mexican counterpart IEnova after settling the exchange offer launched last month. 
  • The company says it achieved its target of exceeding 95% ownership of IEnova through the exchange offer, placing it closer to achieving its goal of acquiring the remaining 3.6% interest. 
  • Sempra's common stock will begin trading on the Mexican Stock Exchange on May 28 while continuing to trade on the New York Stock Exchange. 
  • Sempra said last November it would work with IEnova on the proposed Energia Costa Azul liquefied natural gas export facility in northwestern Mexico.

************************************
Road Trip!

Los tres amigos!

No Wells Coming Off Confidential -- May 25, 2021

Active rigs:

$66.11
5/25/202105/25/202005/25/201905/25/201805/25/2017
Active Rigs1914656550

No wells coming off the confidential list

RBN Energy: LNG's role in decarbonizing the shipping industry, part 2

IMO 2020, the mandate that ships plying most international waters slash their sulfur emissions starting in January of last year, was only another step in the International Maritime Organization’s long-running effort to ratchet down the shipping industry’s environmental impact. 
The group’s next focus, as you might expect, is reducing shippers’ carbon footprint — while no specific rules have been set, the IMO in 2018 laid out the goal of cutting ships’ carbon dioxide emissions by 40% from their 2008 levels by 2030. One way to move toward that goal would be fueling more ships with LNG, which emits 20-25% less CO2 than very low sulfur fuel oil. But as we discuss in today’s blog, shippers could augment those emission reductions by moving from the LNG trade’s traditional point-to-point model to optimization through cargo swapping.

Stock To Watch Tomorrow -- May 25, 2021

If earnings beat forecast, watch this stock explode. There are hints that Nvidia could miss forecasts.

Today is Tuesday, May 25, 2021. Nvidia is expected to report earnings tomorrow, Wednesday, May 26, 2021. 

Nvidia announces a four-for-one split late last week and the stock surged 4%, up $25, closed at $624, on the first trading day after the announcement. In pre-market trading, before results known, NVDA is up another 1%; up over $7; and trading at $631. 

Split:

  • record date: June 21, 2021
  • split date: July 19, 2021
  • first trade date for new shares: July 20, 2021

Analyst:

As far as their earnings go, what we're looking at is a potential for a huge quarter for Nvidia, as much as 75% revenue growth for the quarter and as much as 83% on adjusted EPS.

*****************************
Others

RIDE: investors can't get out of Lordstown fast enough. 

In February, 2021 -- just weeks ago -- this stock traded for $31. Yesterday it was a $10 stock. In pre-market trading, RIDE is down almost 15%; down $1.37; trading at $8.30.

OKE: will trend toward a 52-week high.

ET: when I was in middle school, my dad's advice when it came to investing -- "6-6-6." A company whose shares trade for $6; have a dividend of 6%; and, sport a P/E of 6. LOL. Look at ET:

  • trades at $10
  • a dividend that pays 6%
  • a P/E of 8

It would be a challenge to find a "better" example of my dad's "6-6-6" rule. One drawback for some: it's an MLP.

DAPL: Is The EIS Even Required Any More? Has The EIS Become Moot? -- May 25, 2021

This story is tracked elsewhere.

From SeekingAlpha this morning: bombshell if I'm reading this correctly -- the lack of action by the US Army Corps of Engineers suggests to one contributor to SeekingAlpha that the EPA reassessment may not be needed, assuming I am reading this correctly.  

Read the fourth bullet closely:

  • DAPL can continue to ship oil.
  • The court basically admitted that the law limited the options while raising an extremely high bar for an injunction.
  • The Army Corps has refused to rule on the trespass of the pipeline.
  • The lack of the Corps' action may result in an outgrant without the necessary NEPA requirements.
  • Plaintiffs now have a very limited (if any) set of options.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Oil & Gas Value Research. 

At the linked article, note the incredible forest in the Bakken. I had no idea. 

Back to the EIS issue, from the liked article:

The problem here is that the EIS is due to be completed by March, so there is not much time and the completion of the EIS may make such a process moot. This is something the plaintiff attorneys will have to examine among any other items that they feel they still have.

The Army Corps presented a rather unique position of its enforcement options:

The Corps additionally maintained - without citing any authority - that it was under no obligation "to take any particular action to cure an encroachment within a specified time period" or even "to ultimately cure the encroachment at all.

Source: District Court Decision Dated May 21, 2021.

This statement threw a monkey wrench into how the original Appeals Court Decision figured things would work. The Appeals Court originally assumed that the Army Corps would make a decision on the encroachment in a prompt manner.

[T]he Court of Appeals emphasized that it "would expect [the agency] to decide promptly. To do otherwise would be to issue a de facto outgrant without engaging in the NEPA analysis that the Corps concedes such an action requires.

Source: District Court Decision Dated May 21, 2021.

Now that the Army Corps has delayed the decision, the question before the district court was whether or not the now voided easement was enough to shut down the pipeline. The court's reasoning was that the vacated easement was not reason enough to shut down the pipeline.

That decision was properly the decision of the Army Corps of Engineers. This same Corps is now doing an EIS as the court ordered back in 2020.

Now, about the possibility of a leak "getting to the sacred waters":

Some insights as to likely conclusions were given by the court in its decision. First, there is the fact that the pipeline is a good 90 feet below the lakebed. Any leak would have to be substantial enough to (and move in the right direction) to cover that 90 feet. That would be quite a leak.

Secondly, there appears to be some natural layers between the pipeline and the lake that would inhibit liquids from making it through to the lake bed to begin a pollution-type event.

The biggest thing is that DAPL is a new pipeline with some of the latest safety measures and monitoring equipment available. Most new pipelines have relatively good track records (as does DAPL). Therefore, the court had to conclude that a damaging leak itself was not a realistic possibility because the court classified it as remote (at best).

Even the operating record of Energy Transfer submitted to the court could not overcome the inherent safety of a new pipeline. So any attempt by the plaintiffs to mention damage as a reason for an injunction failed.

DUC Inventory Dropping -- April, 2021, Data

Wow. The inventory of DUCs is at record lows. 

Many story lines.

This information was sent to me by a reader several weeks ago. I am finally getting it posted. A huge "thanks" to the reader.













Month-Year

Bakken


Eagle Ford


Permian


Drilled

Completed

DUC


Drilled

Completed

DUC


Drilled

Completed

DUC

Dec-13

--

--

570


--

--

993


--

--

660

Jan-14

178

143

605


333

334

992


581

590

651

Feb-14

210

158

657


379

316

1,055


582

519

714

Mar-14

224

218

663


338

384

1,009


609

624

699

Apr-14

217

207

673


401

335

1,075


657

632

724

May-14

226

208

691


365

347

1,093


653

628

749

Jun-14

236

225

702


365

351

1,107


668

616

801

Jul-14

250

243

709


369

332

1,144


613

601

813

Aug-14

226

207

728


361

365

1,140


659

580

892

Sep-14

256

232

752


389

337

1,192


677

600

969

Oct-14

186

243

695


380

416

1,156


689

669

989

Nov-14

209

202

702


293

401

1,048


568

575

982

Dec-14

224

194

732


330

386

992


632

577

1,037

Jan-15

197

193

736


398

352

1,038


573

476

1,134

Feb-15

230

151

815


471

261

1,248


499

398

1,235

Mar-15

182

170

827


347

284

1,311


393

442

1,186

Apr-15

142

127

842


253

236

1,328


338

323

1,201

May-15

124

139

827


233

174

1,387


273

341

1,133

Jun-15

110

135

802


210

183

1,414


306

359

1,080

Jul-15

102

124

780


212

213

1,413


298

365

1,013

Aug-15

111

101

790


199

246

1,366


335

322

1,026

Sep-15

99

92

797


193

228

1,331


321

288

1,059

Oct-15

118

84

831


188

162

1,357


308

264

1,103

Nov-15

100

89

842


161

153

1,365


275

230

1,148

Dec-15

98

78

862


150

156

1,359


259

236

1,171

Jan-16

71

80

853


153

143

1,369


239

239

1,171

Feb-16

61

41

873


113

128

1,354


191

220

1,142

Mar-16

68

45

896


87

113

1,328


214

213

1,143

Apr-16

43

39

900


66

119

1,275


182

215

1,110

May-16

46

59

887


60

140

1,195


171

193

1,088

Jun-16

42

54

875


62

103

1,154


191

223

1,056

Jul-16

45

56

864


62

101

1,115


192

190

1,058

Aug-16

53

82

835


99

123

1,091


238

254

1,042

Sep-16

49

66

818


86

119

1,058


250

238

1,054

Oct-16

59

85

792


80

133

1,005


272

232

1,094

Nov-16

61

86

767


89

124

970


301

269

1,126

Dec-16

53

49

771


105

93

982


290

250

1,166

Jan-17

62

52

781


124

132

974


351

259

1,258

Feb-17

51

58

774


141

134

981


298

267

1,289

Mar-17

78

71

781


148

150

979


391

320

1,360

Apr-17

78

104

755


158

155

982


399

348

1,411

May-17

94

82

767


177

166

993


424

341

1,494

Jun-17

76

105

738


123

162

954


380

314

1,560

Jul-17

95

103

730


183

167

970


412

313

1,659

Aug-17

99

110

719


169

146

993


495

375

1,779

Sep-17

98

97

720


172

167

998


458

383

1,854

Oct-17

104

110

714


172

177

993


488

434

1,908

Nov-17

93

86

721


131

159

965


423

453

1,878

Dec-17

77

65

733


155

149

971


471

383

1,966

Jan-18

107

72

768


174

154

991


485

403

2,048

Feb-18

74

74

768


147

173

965


503

462

2,089

Mar-18

95

90

773


169

188

946


498

518

2,069

Apr-18

109

110

772


207

181

972


522

477

2,114

May-18

124

131

765


194

204

962


553

496

2,171

Jun-18

108

118

755


214

166

1,010


550

499

2,222

Jul-18

134

155

734


219

183

1,046


555

473

2,304

Aug-18

108

138

704


180

210

1,016


566

516

2,354

Sep-18

108

122

690


183

182

1,017


587

490

2,451

Oct-18

120

118

692


228

202

1,043


596

446

2,601

Nov-18

110

99

703


219

189

1,073


565

465

2,701

Dec-18

108

70

741


196

145

1,124


535

421

2,815

Jan-19

120

71

790


223

174

1,173


583

479

2,919

Feb-19

108

56

842


219

166

1,226


547

464

3,002

Mar-19

111

110

843


202

208

1,220


576

505

3,073

Apr-19

118

112

849


209

184

1,245


573

454

3,192

May-19

127

127

849


191

186

1,250


557

515

3,234

Jun-19

118

149

818


205

179

1,276


544

478

3,300

Jul-19

122

121

819


177

184

1,269


544

494

3,350

Aug-19

122

144

797


180

211

1,238


510

458

3,402

Sep-19

110

87

820


166

207

1,197


498

451

3,449

Oct-19

116

108

828


162

141

1,218


467

506

3,410

Nov-19

96

88

836


137

146

1,209


464

435

3,439

Dec-19

94

86

844


166

133

1,242


448

384

3,503

Jan-20

99

98

845


209

184

1,267


448

442

3,509

Feb-20

94

99

840


191

185

1,273


463

466

3,506

Mar-20

94

109

825


205

160

1,318


460

461

3,505

Apr-20

69

35

859


120

78

1,360


331

252

3,584

May-20

33

15

877


42

26

1,376


199

88

3,695

Jun-20

18

25

870


22

30

1,368


149

85

3,759

Jul-20

18

29

859


16

33

1,351


137

114

3,782

Aug-20

19

30

848


15

52

1,314


132

198

3,716

Sep-20

18

51

815


15

70

1,259


133

232

3,617

Oct-20

19

46

788


24

63

1,220


140

272

3,485

Nov-20

20

42

766


33

66

1,187


148

277

3,356

Dec-20

20

46

740


37

76

1,148


169

255

3,270

Jan-21

20

44

716


41

70

1,119


187

280

3,177

Feb-21

19

40

695


37

52

1,104


172

190

3,159

Mar-21

25

47

673


44

68

1,080


214

320

3,053

Apr-21

26

52

647


51

74

1,057


245

366

2,932