Sunday, July 8, 2018

North Dakota Energy Potential -- A Reader -- July 8, 2018

A reader writes:
The Allam Cycle plant has been successfully tested in Texas. North Dakota is carefully watching.

I see several blogs are critical because the CO2 has to be sequestered after it is captured.
I think North Dakota could figure out what to do with the CO2.
North Dakota could produce "clean electricity" with coal using the Allam Cycle and using excess CO2 to enhance oil and gas production. I think this will mean we should stop thinking of North Dakota producing energy for 50 years and start thinking in terms of 200 years.
Other readers are watching the same thing. One of the leaders of CO2 enhancement of crude oil production in North Dakota/Montana is Denbury Resources.

With regard to the Allam Cycle in Texas, see this article over at Vox, dated June 1, 2018.
Back in April of 2016, I wrote about an exciting new technology for which construction was just getting underway: the Net Power natural gas power plant.
It promised to capture its own carbon dioxide emissions, not in a separate, expensive, power-intensive process like conventional carbon-capture facilities, but as part of the combustion cycle. The company claimed that the technology will ultimately enable it to produce power at prices cheaper than conventional fossil fuel power plants — with carbon capture built in.
Net Power had just started work on a small, 50 MW power plant in La Porte, Texas, meant to demonstrate that the technology can work.
As of last year, the plant completed construction.
And as of this week, it has achieved “first fire” and is running a battery of tests meant to ensure that everything is working up to snuff.
If all goes well — lead designer and chemical engineer Rodney Allam recently told Nature, “we’re still smiling” — the plant will begin generating electricity in earnest later this year. The company plans to build another 300 MW plant for sometime in 2020.
And Now The Real Fun Begins

All times above are central time. It's 4:46 a.m. in Moscow right now; it's 8:46 a.m. in Texas right now. So a 1:00 p.m. game here in Texas means the game starts at 9:00 p.m. in Moscow (?). 
Mandolin Wind

Iran Crude Oil Exports -- July 8, 2018; Apple -- It's All About Seamless Connectivity And Its Ecosystem

Over the next few months there will be lots of stories about Iran, crude oil production, crude oil exports, and sanctions.

Most articles, based on anecdotal historical experience, will talk about Iranian production. To some extent that's important, but more important is Iranian crude oil exports.

First, production: this is a great example of how one can "lie" with statistics. In this case there is no lying, but the graphic is quite, well, should we say "graphic":

It certainly looks like Iranian production has dropped off significantly. But look at the x-axis. The range is 3.8 million bopd to 3.92 million bopd -- not much of a range. In round numbers, Iran is producing about 4 million bopd.

Now, exports.

Quick! How have Iranian exports been doing?

Answer: Iranian exports have been setting records. Who would have guessed. From the St Louis Fed:

So, in round numbers, Iran exports about 2.5 million bopd. Most of it goes to India, I believe.

So, Iranian crude oil production:
  • 4 million bopd
Iranian crude oil exports:
  • 2.5 million bopd
  • a cut in exports, anywhere from:
    • 500,000 bopd
  • to:
    • 2 million bopd
The Apple Page

If this is accurate, this is a big, big deal. An anonymous source -- the best kind in these situations -- LOL -- is reporting that Apple Music has now surpassed Spotify's subscriber count in the US. Wow. 

  • The ticker symbol for Spotify Technology is SPOT; it was last trading for about $176, Friday, July 6, 2018.
  • The ticker symbol for that other company is AAPL; it was trading for about $188, Friday, July 6, 2018.
From the linked article:
.... the report says both Apple Music and Spotify have more than 20 million subscribers in the U.S., with Apple now "a hair ahead" with "20 million plus" members.
In February, The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple was gaining U.S. subscribers at a higher rate than Spotify. Apple’s US-based subscriber growth rate was believed to be 5 percent in the U.S., compared to Spotify’s 2 percent.
Based on those figures, the report predicted Apple Music would surpass its biggest rival in the summer. [Can't wait for 4Q18 earnings call.]

Apple's growth was said to be due in part by the increasing numbers of devices in consumers' hands. Since the WSJ report, Apple has also released its HomePod speaker, which includes features specific to Apple Music. 
Pancake Break After Swimming

Sunday Morning -- July 8, 2018 -- Our Town (With A Real Treat) -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

I would have to say this makes my day.

Part 4. I was going to quit with Part 3, but dots led to more dots and then a dot led me to this song. I will post the connecting dot some time later -- the lyrics to the song at the connecting dot might be a bit much for Sunday morning. LOL.

But here's the last song for the morning. Then I'm on my way home for the day. Time to finish the notes on The Quiet American.

Our Town, Iris Dement
Lots in that song; and a surprise in that video. A huge surprise.

By the way: at 0:47 at the video above: limerence.

Of course, this makes my day, also:

One last one,

Seven-Year Ache, Rosanne Cash

How Did Iris Ever Keep That Arkansas Twang? 

DeMent was born near Paragould, Arkansas, the youngest child of Pat DeMent and his second wife, Flora Mae.
As the baby of the family, she was Pat DeMent's 14th child, and Flora Mae's eighth.
Iris's mother had harbored dreams of going to Nashville and starting a singing career. Although she put those plans on hold to get married, her singing voice was an inspiration and influence for her youngest daughter Iris.
DeMent was raised in a Pentecostal household. Her family moved from Arkansas to the Los Angeles area when she was three
While growing up, she was exposed to and influenced by country and gospel music. Singing at age five as one of "the little DeMent sisters", Iris had a bad experience when she forgot her words during her first performance, which caused her to avoid performing in public for some time.
And more:
DeMent was inspired to write her first song "Our Town" by a drive through a boarded-up Midwest town, at the age of 25. The song lyrics came to her "exactly as it is now", without need for re-writing, and she realized then that songwriting was her calling in life.
"Our Town" was played during the closing scene for the final episode (July 26, 1995) of CBS's television series Northern Exposure.

Sunday Morning -- July 8, 2018 -- I Just Want To Dance With You -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Part 3. Part One was here; part two is here. Phil Spector pops up everywhere. Part 4 is here.

From Brooklyn Vegan:  John Prine releases his first LP of new songs in thirteen years -- February 8, 2018.
Folk and songwriting great John Prine seems like he’s always on the road playing shows, but it’s been a while since he’s released an album of new songs.
Thirteen years to be specific, but he’s got a new album, The Tree of Forgiveness, on the way which features songwriting collaborations with The Black Keys’ Dan Auerbach and Phil Spector, and the record itself features guest appearances by Brandi Carlile, Jason Isbell and Amanda Shires.
It’s out April 13 via Oh Boy Records and you can listen to “Summer’s End,” which features Brandi Carlile on backing vocals, below.
Black Keys? See this site. Also at American Song.

From Rolling Stone:
John Prine has set April 13th as the release date for his first album of all-new material in more than 13 years.
The Tree of Forgiveness, on the iconic singer-songwriter’s own Oh Boy label, was produced by Dave Cobb, the Grammy winner who has helmed projects for Chris Stapleton, Jason Isbell and Mary Chapin Carpenter, among others.
Recorded at Nashville‘s RCA Studio A, the album features several Prine co-writes with such noted tunesmiths as Roger Cook (the pair previously co-wrote George Strait‘s 1998 chart-topper “I Just Want to Dance With You”), the Black Key’s Dan Auerbach, Keith Sykes and Phil Spector.
Special guests on the record include Brandi Carlile, Jason Isbell and Amanda Shires.
I Just Want To Dance With You, George Strait

Knockin' On Your Screen Door, John Prine

Sunday Morning -- July 8, 2018 -- When I Get To Heaven

Part 2. Part 1 was here. Part 3 is here.

When I Get To Heaven, John Prine

From a reader: the shale gas revolution has just begun, from Forbes.
The shale gas revolution is turning ten years old and is apparently only just getting started.
A new report by the business information provider IHS Markit traces the remarkable rise of the shale gas in the United States over the past decade and projects that natural gas production will grow by another 60% over the next 20 years.
“To say that the ‘Shale Gale’. . . has been anything but a veritable revolution would be an understatement,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman, IHS Markit and co-author of the report. “It represents a dramatic and largely unanticipated turnaround that dramatically changed both markets and long-term thinking about energy.”
Remind me to send a note to Art Berman and Jane Nielson. And The New York Times. And not only that, the revolution is occurring in The New York Times' own backyard:
Shale gas has fundamentally altered the domestic energy landscape. The Northeast has replaced the Gulf Coast as the largest gas producing region in the United States. Pennsylvania and New York, which traditionally imported most of their energy, are becoming energy exporters.
New York? Are they fracking in New York?

Google "natural gas production New York state".

From 1996:
The twenty-five year period from 1970 to 1994 illustrates the rise and subsequent decline and aging of the natural gas industry in New York State. With reported natural gas production for 1970 at almost three billion cubic feet, New York State's gas industry was poised to expand in both drilling and production that culminated sixteen years later, in 1986, when natural gas production reached its pinnacle at more than 34.7 billion cubic feet and then started a slow decline.
For 2017:
For the 2017 calendar year, 764 well owners reported a total of 12,045 oil and gas wells. Oil production in New York decreased 3.3% from the previous year for a total of 214,828 barrels reported by purchasers. Total reported gas production was 11.4 billion cubic feet (bcf), a 16% decrease from 2016. Gas production was primarily driven by wells in the Medina formation (5.2 bcf). Significant 2017 production was also reported for the Trenton-Black River formation (3.2 bcf), Herkimer (0.8 bcf), and Queenston (1.1 bcf) formations.
1986: natural gas production in NY state "reached its pinnacle at more than 34.7 billion cubic feet and then started a slow decline ... fast forward to 2017, total reported gas production was 11.4 billion cubic feet (bcf), a 16% decrease from 2016.

I assume these formations produce natural gas without fracking. The NY state ban on fracking remains in effect. But look at this NPR story. Wow, what incredible hypocrisy.

From the EIA, note that New York state doesn't even meet production numbers to get on the chart:
So, some 11 billion cubic feet of natural gas coming out of New York state compared with 15 billion cubic feet coming out of Pennsylvania.

So, with 11 billion from NY state and 15 billion from Pennsylvania, why didn't New York state make the chart.

Holy c**p. Am I reading this correctly?

Go back to the data.

New York state, 2017: total production was 11.4 billion cubic feet for the entire year.

Pennsylvania: 15 billion cubic feet per day.

Please tell me I'm missing something. I must be misreading this. From Forbes again:
Shale gas has fundamentally altered the domestic energy landscape. The Northeast has replaced the Gulf Coast as the largest gas producing region in the United States. Pennsylvania and New York, which traditionally imported most of their energy, are becoming energy exporters.
Why is New York included in that sentence?

That linked NPR article suggests New York is a net importer of natural gas, but importing it from Pennsylvania.

Something tells me I'm going to be hugely embarrassed when a reader points out what I am missing and I'm an idiot. 

Oil? From official New York state data:

Oil production in New York decreased 3.3% from the previous year for a total of 214,828 barrels reported by purchasers.

214,828 bbls of oil produced in New York state in one year, sitting on top of huge reserves. North Dakota produces five times that amount in one day from four counties.

Now, The Update Regarding Those Two Slawson Dual Long Lateral Wells In Big Bend -- July 8, 2018

Okay, let's go back to this one.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I used poetic license to tell part of the story. If I stepped on any toes, let me know and I will make it all "right." It should be noted that one can buy soft drinks at J Dub's in Williston.

Disclaimer: I can't stress enough that there might be factual and typographical errors in this post. If this is important to you, go to the source. Hearsay at J Dub's is probably not "the source," but I bet you can get some pretty good stories. 

I posted this graphic earlier as a stand-alone post with no narrative but said I would get back to it later.

I'm going to do this from memory. It would take too much time and effort to go back to get the details. So if this is wrong, and affects the story, let me know and I will correct it. As noted I used poetic license to tell part of the story. Don't take that part seriously.

It's just for fun.

The other night I was updating wells that were drilled in 2015.

I came across this completion report:

Wow, 81 stages! In two fracks: a 40-stage frack followed by a 41-stage frack. But then I remembered it was a Slawson well, and Slawson would never do anything so audacious as an 80+ stage frack. LOL. Nope, they did something more audacious.

Wow, the Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

So, when I saw that 81-stage frack done in two stages, it took me three seconds to take another look -- I think what jumped out at me was the fact that the target for the first frack was different than the target for the second frack.

At least one date in the geologist's drilling report was wrong (the "cease drilling date" was said to be before the spud date -- I'm pretty sure about that, but could be wrong). Other dates are probably correct, but I can't reconcile them. But, then, I can't reconcile a lot of things in the Bakken. See the sundry form below, and then compare the target/test date (circled in red) with the target/test date in the completion report above (also circled in red).
The dates may be correct, and I may be missing something but the dates don't matter for the story.

So, for #30412, Slawson drilled a typical long lateral into the upper bench of the Three Forks (TF1). MD was 10,771 feet (vertical before they went horizontal).

On a Sunday some months later, with April Fool's Day coming up, after a long night at J Dub's, the Lightning Federal site manager drives out to the pad, #30412, and suggests to the team, "hey, why not cut a window in the casing of the TF1 horizontal / kick-off point and drill the TF2?"

Nothing better to do, and something to impress the boss, that's exactly what they did. They cut a window in the TF1 casing at/near the kick-off point and drilled the TF2. MD was 10,793 feet, about 22 feet deeper.

That simply amazes me. The roughnecks drill down two miles deep into the earth and then cut a hole in the cement casing, and then hit another target, just 22 feet deeper. I don't know about you but for me that's as impressive as NASA landing a drone on an asteroid.

Maybe more impressive. After all, NASA doesn't need a permit or an environmental impact statement to land on an asteroid.

Some time later, the boss told the Lightning Federal site manager that he and the roughnecks were  probably just lucky.

The site manager replied, "Here, hold my drink." The site manager then had the roughnecks do the same thing 105 feet to the east (distance between surface holes).

This time, MD for TF1 was 10,880 feet and the MD for TF2 was 10,906 feet, a difference of 26 feet.

Production data for 30412, note the production jump after the frack:

NDIC File No: 30412     API No: 33-061-03486-00-00     CTB No: 230412
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/15/2016     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 24-152-93     Footages: 261 FSL 1361 FEL     Latitude: 47.964030     Longitude: -102.519260
Current Well Name: LIGHTNING FEDERAL 6-24-13TFH
Elevation(s): 1982 KB   1958 GR   1958 GL     Total Depth: 20590     Field: BIG BEND
Spud Date(s):  6/9/2015
Casing String(s):  9.625" 1909'   7" 10838'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10793-20590     Comp: 4/15/2016     Status: AL     Date: 4/27/2017     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 363542     Cum MCF Gas: 332004     Cum Water: 312290
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 4/16/2016     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2684     IP MCF: 668     IP Water: 1600
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The production profile for #30414 was similar and won't be re-posted here.

What about #30413, a middle Bakken well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

We might as well finish this by looking at #18827, about 1,530 feet to the west of #30412:
  • 18287, 911, Slawson, Skybolt 1-24H, t1/10; cum 305K 5/18;
Part of the production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

When looking at the production data, be sure to note that the older middle Bakken well was a short lateral (one mile long) whereas the Three Forks wells were long laterals.

Look at the IPs for the long lateral TF wells compared to the old middle Bakken well and the newer long lateral middle Bakken well:
  • 18287, 911, Slawson, Skybolt 1-24H, middle Bakken, short lateral, t1/10; cum 305K 5/18;
  • 30412, 2,684, Slawson, Lightning Federal 6-24-13TFH, t4/16; cum 364K 5/18;
  • 30413, 1,008, Slawson, Lightning Federal 2-24-13H, t4/16; cum 204K 5/18;
  • 314014, 1,622, Slawson, Lightning Federal 7-24-13TFH, t4/16; cum 338K 5/18; 
Finally, look at the monthly production for #30414, drilled back in 4/16 -- more than two years ago:

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare