The Bakken Blog -- August 24, 2022

If you are interested in the Bakken, the best blog on the internet, with no ads, no subscriptions, no passwords ..... themilliondollarwayblog ... none better. Just saying.

Another Shale Patch Merger-- August 24, 2022

Link here.

Simply The Best Television On Television -- August 24, 2022

"Only Murders In The Building."

Just possibly the best "television series" I have ever seen.

Each season has ten episodes.

The second episode ended last night; the tenth episode of the second season.

The eighth episode, second season was forgettable. The ninth episode was incredible. I could not believe how much they squeezed into an episode. I didn't think they could come up with a better episode.

And then the tenth episode, last night. 

Unbelievable. 

My new favorite sandwich: liverwurst and marmalade. Or braunschweiger and grape jelly. LOL. 

Later: from a reader, see first comment -- https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/food-and-cooking/recipes/the-ultimate-braunschweiger-sandwich/article_934d9d73-72fe-59b8-967a-67aecf9db08c.html.  

Later, later: another comment on red onions -- https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/food-drink/eating-red-onions-might-just-8976584.

Music: here. 

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On the sunny side of the street: link here.

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The Apple Page

This is incredibly important to me.

This has nothing to do with investing. With regard to investing and Apple, I couldn't (or could) care less.

This has everything to do with how great I think Apple, Inc. is as a company, and nothing to do with investing.

This is very important to me / for me.

Remember, it was my younger daughter, Laura, and I who used to carry our prayer rugs to the mall when we arrived at the Apple store before it opened. 

From IBD: 

Apple stock is in a 34-week consolidation patternwith a buy point of 183.04, according to IBD MarketSmith charts. That buy point is 10 cents above the stock's all-time high of 182.94 reached on Jan. 4, based on IBD trading guidelines.

CLR's Allen Wells And CLR's Boe State Wells In XTO Drilling Units In Dollar Joe And Beaver Lodge -- August 24, 2022

From the daily activity report dated August 24, 2022:

Six new oil and gas permits, #39193 - #39198, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR.
• Field: Dollar Joe (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for three Allen wells and three Boe permits, all in section NWNW 16-155-96; 
• to be sited 430 FNL and between 575 FWL and 800 FWL
  

Despite being sited in 16-155-96 which is in Beaver Lodge, based on the report, two wells will be in Dollar Joe.  The other four will be in Beaver Lodge, but one as a section line well. Everything suggests three will run directionally east to west into sections 17/18-155-97, Dollar Joe, and then swing north to south in sections 17/20-155-97. 

The other three will go directly from the pad into the drilling unit, sections 5/8-155-96, Beaver Lodge, with the section line well also a Beaver Lodge well.

If so, existing wells in sections 17/20-15597 and new CLR permits:

• 18893, 1,142, XTO, Allen 21X-17, Dollar Joe, t6/11; cum 186K 6/22; was off line 4/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
• 28942, 605, XTO, Allen 21X-17F, Dollar Joe, t6/11; cum 78K 6/22;
• 28941, 1,245, XTO, Allen 21X-17B, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum 100K 6/22; was off line 6/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
• 28940, AB/1,280, Allen 21X-17E, t3/15; cum 107K 5/21;
• 28939, 1,172, XTO, Allen 21X-17A, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum 134K 6/22; was off line 10/20 - 5/22; just came back on line;
• 39193, conf, CLR, Allen 6-17H, Dollar Joe,
  
• 39194, conf, CLR, Allen 7-17H, Dollar Joe,
• 39195, conf, CLR, Allen 8-17HSL, Beaver Lodge,
  

Existing wells in sections 5/8-155-97 and new CLR permits:

• 26821, 1,298, XTO, Boe State 31X-16D, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 143K 6/22; was off line 4/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
• 26822, 607, XTO, Boe State 31X-16H, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 114K 6/22;
• 26823, 753, XTO, Boe State 31X-16C, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 101K 6/22; was off line 1/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
• 18620, 400, XTO, Boe State 31X-16, Beaver Lodge, t7/10; cum 137K 6/22;
• 39196, conf, CLR, Boe State 5-16H, Beaver Lodge,
• 39197, conf, CLR, Boe State 6-16H, Beaver Lodge,
• 39198, conf, CLR, Boe State 7-16H, Beaver Lodge,

Gasoline Demand -- EIA Data -- August 24, 2022

Link here.

As of 4:00 p.m. CT, the EIA has updated the numbers on this graph but has not updated the actual lines.

In light of the EIA failing to even report data for one week back in June, 2022, this is very, very interesting. The numbers were updated but the graphic was not? Say what?

Later: it took all night but finally, Thursday morning, August 25, 2022 -- EIA updated their graph.

CLR With Six New Permits -- August 24, 2022

WTI: $95.31. Diesel climbs for first time in two weeks.

SNOW: up $33 market closes; earnings surged.

• Warren Buffett should be relieved.
• P/E? Greater than 1,000x forward earnings.
• Note: all iCloud / all software
• Apple is huge in this same sector.
  

NVDA; big earnings miss.

• EPS: 51 cents vs $1.26 anticipated
• CEO still blames the supply chain; getting a bit tiresome.
  

Natural gas: $9.220.

Narrative starting to change?

CVX: negative all day, finally jumps a bit at the close. Same with OXY. 

US crude oil: supply in days -- drops below 26 days again; at 25.9 days.

Gasoline demand, EIA data:

• this week's report was released;
• the gasoline demand graph has not been updated
• the numbers are changed / updated from last week, but the graphic itself is not yet updated (3:30 p.m. CT)
• it appears this data point should slump a bit in this report based on most recent data point

This hurts, link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $95.24.

Natural gas: $9.250.

Active rigs: 46.

Six new oil and gas permits, #39193 - #39198, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR.
• Field: Dollar Joe (Williams)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for three Allen wells and three Boe permits, all in section NWNW 16-155-96; 
• to be sited 430 FNL and between 575 FWL and 800 FWL

Someone Is Also Laser-Focused On Dividends -- August 24, 2022

Link here.

One question: do buybacks give one a revenue stream for re-investment in retirement?

Disconnect -- August 24, 2022

Check the share prices of the E&Ps in these four charts vs their earnings.

See if you can see the problem.

• gas-weighted E&Ps' 2Q22 results; 
• oil-weighted E&Ps' 2Q22 results;

If following the news for the past six months, it's even more interesting.

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The Third Time Is The Charm

Other see it different: two oil price crashes later, shale investors are finally being paid. Link here.

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Investors Are Too Pessimistic

From The WSJ.

Saudi Arabia and Goldman Sachs agree: Investors have the oil market all wrong.

Money managers bracing for a global slowdown have pulled back from bets on oil and other commodities, helping push prices lower. But their focus on potentially waning demand isn’t shared with some of the most powerful figures in the industry, or with investment banks, who point to a host of other reasons why prices should be higher.

This week, Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the oil futures market has become increasingly disconnected from supply and demand for energy. Saudi Arabia is considering cuts to OPEC+ production to try to balance this, a move that other members of the oil cartel said they may also support.

The median forecast among 22 Wall Street analysts surveyed by FactSet is for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, to finish September at $115 a barrel. That contrasts with Wednesday’s $100 a barrel. The most actively traded Brent crude futures have fallen nearly 4% in August, regaining some ground after trading as low as around $92 a barrel earlier this month.The market is irrational and the combination of decent demand, falling inventories and tight supply should be pushing prices up, Goldman Sachs analysts said in an Aug. 12 report.

“Almost any measure of investor participation in this space is dwindling, this is what gives us the confidence to say this is investor-led,” said Jeff Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, referring to the recent price declines.

Much more at the link.

Investors are not too pessimistic. They are rational. They need an incentive to invest in E&Ps.

Exhibit A:

• despite soaring profits, and,
• 12% off its recent 52-week high,
• CVX is up .... drum roll ..  six cents today on a stock that trades for $160 (6/16000) = 0.00% to the nearest hundredth -- and now, the share price has actually turned negative for the day.
• dividend history here: 

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Two Assistants For The Price Of One

A CLR Carus Well Goes over 700K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

• 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 571K 3/20; huge jump in production, 7/19; cum 684K 5/21; cum 710K 6/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	16	2235	2248	3657	3570	3378	10
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	3759	3707	7487	5015	4761	5
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	1717	1747	4578	3071	2889	13
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	3387	3404	8265	3239	2990	10
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	4313	4224	10334	2252	2035	11
BAKKEN	1-2022	8	528	540	1282	160	95	3
BAKKEN	12-2021	12	1545	1603	3684	266	167	8
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	5073	5059	11750	925	685	24
BAKKEN	10-2021	24	3369	3303	6644	2914	2623	105
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	2	16	242	5	3	0	3
BAKKEN	7-2021	4	21	0	1	1	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	6	380	420	331	1536	1520	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	11234	11290	9669	30482	30023	51
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	9724	9503	8842	21187	20860	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	5	1422	1645	1318	5240	5188	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	10337	10296	9785	35914	35539	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	12001	11998	11198	42542	42123	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	13357	13218	10796	44767	44348	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	14233	14379	10907	38029	37424	200
BAKKEN	10-2020	18	9677	9676	8248	18453	18218	0

A CLR Carus Well With A 20x Jump In Production -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

• 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 161K 3/20; cum 167K 5/21; huge jump in production; cum 235K 4/22; off line 4/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	3907	4225	1511	4824	4667	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	17	5069	4818	2902	5191	4979	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	24	6372	6654	2750	8244	7946	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11550	11608	5835	14730	14311	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	16004	16229	8969	19237	18818	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20533	20341	19563	22195	21790	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	6	3319	3019	5476	3288	3207	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	100	0	1	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	457	586	117	888	496	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	500	524	82	959	540	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	477	576	78	897	505	0

Initial production back in 2008:

BAKKEN	11-2008	30	3572	3000	629	4290	4290	0
BAKKEN	10-2008	29	3951	3710	1051	3793	3793	0
BAKKEN	9-2008	30	3904	3883	839	3231	3231	0
BAKKEN	8-2008	20	2924	2924	1199	2394	2394	0
BAKKEN	7-2008	24	5039	5014	1430	4555	4555	0
BAKKEN	6-2008	30	5751	5898	3530	4136	4136	0
BAKKEN	5-2008	1	207	451	682	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2008	24	1140	629	964	25	25	0
BAKKEN	3-2008	19	0	0	552	0	0	0

A CLR Carus Three Forks Well With Jump In Production After Almost Ten Years Of Production -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

• 21794, 379, CLR, Carus 2-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t7/13; cum 347K 6/22;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	25	2019	2047	4187	3141	2516	351
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	2551	2179	5779	4112	3707	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	1986	2011	5079	2567	2139	110
BAKKEN	3-2022	10	678	503	2003	772	648	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	14	671	916	1572	887	701	23
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1953	1832	4700	2506	2076	25
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2833	2751	6618	3255	2841	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	14	1878	1868	3816	2050	1872	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	3	0	271	67	1	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	23	302	238	298	528	235	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	415	306	528	725	336	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	507	601	463	837	418	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	530	577	483	835	458	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	665	1212	643	1077	658	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	699	0	767	1196	777	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	831	845	923	1351	946	0

A CLR Gale Well WIth Jump In Production -- August 24, 2022

The well:

• 17211, 240, CLR, Gale 1-32H, Rattlesnake Point, t8/08; cum 172K 622;

Recent production:

• note: 5,059 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 9,000 bbls over 30 days.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	21	2627	2625	4634	4135	4066	69
BAKKEN	5-2022	18	2714	2740	4288	2026	1995	31
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	4406	4383	7478	2638	2597	41
BAKKEN	3-2022	24	3902	3884	7218	5664	5622	42
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	17	5059	5043	13596	5443	5350	93
BAKKEN	12-2021	4	1203	1197	3066	1272	1244	28
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	29	124	1	1	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	1	97	0	2	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	28	746	1294	290	958	0	587
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	26	0	32	43	0	19
BAKKEN	5-2020	17	263	0	90	436	0	206
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	476	240	142	733	0	371
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	522	753	167	804	30	356
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	481	550	137	737	347	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	520	571	168	743	324	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	508	299	133	761	342	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	501	563	157	761	356	0

Huge Jump In Blackhawk Production -- August 24, 2022

The Charles Blackhawk wells are tracked here.

Recent production for two of these wells.

• 22650, 247, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HX, Heeart Butte, t11/2; cum 235K 6/22:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	8776	8788	24117	6065	4991	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	9136	9075	32952	5115	3982	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	6266	6268	25352	3597	1829	1058
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	9741	9717	42490	5282	4073	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	5614	5572	32753	4772	1297	3362
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	98	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	2	133	300	35	37	6	20
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	848	765	1058	811	258	236
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	846	770	1034	810	0	548

• 22649, 709, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HA, Heart Butte, t11/12; cum 280K 6/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	8564	8633	10487	5492	4679	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	13066	13003	17794	7405	6293	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	11393	11393	14157	6220	5490	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	17036	16974	27237	8255	7085	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	6984	6953	14942	5937	2471	3390
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	7086	7065	14336	6023	133	5890
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	42	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	1	19	48	6	132	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	8	189	253	271	241	51	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	947	957	856	907	618	16
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	899	880	809	861	569	24
BAKKEN	1-2020	30	924	937	783	884	340	207
BAKKEN	12-2019	30	885	890	858	847	240	116
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	889	878	894	852	446	38
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	957	959	884	915	519	27