That Martha Vineyard Off-Shore Wind Farm? It's Dead, Fred; Any More Proof Needed That Global Warming Is A Scam? -- August 27, 2019

Updates

Later, 7:51 p.m. Central Time: a reader sent me this note earlier this afternoon but this was as soon as I was able to get back on line -- the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protetion (MassDEPA) over-ruled Edgartown. MassDEPA says "lay the cable." Edgartown will appeal the decision. And then look at this sh*t:

Edgartown conservation agent Jane Varkonda told The Times Edgartown didn’t receive the August 5 superseding order of conditions from the commonwealth in a timely manner. Varkonda said she learned by happenstance the decision had been made during a conversation with a state official. Upon learning Edgartown was without the decision, the official sent it.

“He sent it to me on Friday [August 16], and the last day to appeal was Monday the 19th,” she said. 

Varkonda said town counsel was able to pull together the appeal in time. “It was a scramble to say the least,” she said. 

Reynolds, Rappaport, Kaplan and Hackney director Michael Goldsmith, who drafted the appeal, declined to speculate on why the order didn’t initially get to Edgartown. 
Varkonda said it’s plausible it was lost in the mail. Comment: my hunch. The MassDEPA letter was accidentally addressed to Jeff Epstein.

Later, 2:48 p.m. Central Time: from a reader who knows and follows this much more closely than I do -- minimally edited --

There are several more "happenings" related to that offshore wind project near Martha's Vineyard. Basically, it's dead, Fred.

Opposition was growing this spring from commercial fishing groups.

Then, the Gloucester office of the NOAA (?) fisheries division released a report saying the important draft EIS (draft Environmental Impact Statement) was inadequate.

Although the BOEM is the lead permitting agency, the Coast Guard, NOAA, and the EPA all refused to sign off on a required evaluation saying they were satisfied with the project's overall impacts.

In early July, BOEM kinda rocked the entire offshore wind industry when it announced that a comprehensive analysis would be undertaken to assess how ALL these several offshore wind farms might effect the East Coast maritime universe.

Vineyard Wind is only a few weeks away from probably announcing that it is aborting/suspending its project as they will lose their needed tax credits if construction does not start prior to this coming December 31, 2019 deadline.

If you google "New York City gas shortage", you may see some amusing/puzzling reports of how local politicians are excoriating the local utility - National Grid - for not providing the much needed natgas to New Yorkers.

Had the reader not add this last line, I would have:

You just can't make this stuff up.

Original Post 

Martha's Vineyard to be underwater in less than ten years due to rising seas / global warming.

President Obama to buy oceanfront property for $15 million on Martha's Vineyard. I assume his daughters are aghast.

That wind farm off Martha's Vineyard?

February 28, 2019:

• Update on off shore wind farm off Martha's Vineyard at this link. Rhode Island approves permit.

May 9, 2019:

• Massachusetts permitting update here. Permit granted.

July 14, 2019:

• Just kidding, never mind. Key cable permit denied. Why is this not surprising. Edgartown, on Martha's Vineyard (island) says "no" to  the necessary undersea cable. Why does this not surprise me. 

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Connecting Dots

Black Water: July 19, 1969.

Quick: name the major NASA event just one day later, July 20, 1969.

One of the most enjoyable books I ever read was Blonde, by Joyce Carol Oates.  I generally don't care for fiction but this one I enjoyed. Again, of course, it may not have been fiction.

Current Exploration In The Gulf Of Mexico Not Encouraging -- January 7, 2017

Quick! What's the average family income for a Costco shopper? For a Sam's Club shopper? $120,000 vs $80,000 respectively. See link below. 

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Road To New England

Updates

February 1, 2017, EIA graphic via Twitter:

Original Post

 

Another aging nuclear power plant to close by 2021. Just another story? No big deal? This power plant provides 25% of electricity for New York City and Westchester County. No plans to replace that electricity have yet been announced. Reading between the lines: the license will be extended another 15 years. This is nothing more than a political effort to increase off-shore/on-shore wind:

"If we can shut-down Indian Point under an agreement that enhances public safety and kick-starts investment into safer and more reliable renewable energy sources, that will be a major victory for the millions of New Yorkers who live in the region," Schneiderman said in a statement.

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Demise of Big Box Stores

Demise of big box stores tracked here. News:

• Neiman Marcus drops plans for stock exchange listing; struggling luxury retailer would fetch bargain-basement prices for its shares
• The Limited is closing all remaining stores by Sunday (tomorrow); all on-line sales final; also at The Washington Post;
• Sam's Club CEO out amid tough Costco battle

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

	1/7/2017	01/07/2016	01/07/2015	01/07/2014	01/07/2013
Active Rigs	39	54	166	189	180

Kostelecky: more than just wells named after Kostelecky. 

Not much, but nice to see. EPD increases distribution, up to 41 cents; previous, 40.5 cents. The yield is currently almost 6%. A big whoop.

Statoil may stop drilling in US Gulf of Mexico. Rigzone data points:

• costly search may end
• Statoil has been part of several discoveries in the region as a junior license partner but the company has failed to strike oil in the drilling campaigns it has operated, despite spending billions of dollars
• latest Statoil well in the region drilled some 18 months ago; no spuds planned for 2017
• Statoil says no decision has been made whether to continue drilling in the Gulf

Sounds like the decision has already been made even if Statoil says otherwise.

I assume Statoil is not an out-lier. If so, this increases the relative importance of US on-shore shale. 

OPEC, Russian oil cuts. Reuters' John Kemp provides his analysis: 

• the pledge: a cut of 1.7 million bodp in the first six months of 2017 (from "what" was not stated; oil producers maxed out production at time pledge to cut was made)
• Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are expected to implement their cuts immediately
• outside of OPEC, the cuts will be phased in gradually
• cuts should be felt at the start of the summer driving season (why does this not surprise me)
• underlying growth in oil consumption in all regions around the world should also affect supple-demand rebalancing
• the pledge did not extend past the initial six months, but they have the option (LOL)
• most traders expect rebalancing to be backloaded; futures prices trading in contango in the first half of 2017, but then moving to level or backwardation in the second half
• the Mideast has greater flexibility in managing production; Russia less due to Arctic drilling
• much more at the link 

By the way, this is probably why Gartman opined that oil would not go above $55 for years:

• the pledge to cut is for only the first six months
• producers maxed production just before cuts
• historically, some OPEC nations cheat (why would it be different this time?)
• Russia's ability to cut is more challenging for technical reasons; by the time Russian cuts start to be noticeable, OPEC may go back to max production

So, although I called out Gartman for his prediction, in the big scheme of things he may not be far off.

By the way, if John Kemp is correct, and the cuts become noticeable at the start of the summer driving season, President Trump won't wait six years (like his predecessor) to figure out what to do.

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#7 In The 20-To-Go Countdown

The Party's Over, Willie Nelson

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The Periodic Table Page

From Macrumors, Apple will start to use IGZO displays for its MacBook Pro later this year (2017):

• IGZO: indium gallium zinc oxide
• often simply referred to as Metal Oxide (I can understand why)

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Ancestry.Com

I just saw a commercial on the Weather Channel. A woman with high cheekbones was curious about her ancestry. She was most surprised to find she was 26% "Native American." It's hard to believe someone could be 1/4th Indian and not know it. Visiting Grandma at Standing Rock should have been a clue.

One wonders if Pocahontas has ever considered genetic analysis?

By the way, speaking of Pocahontas. After watching CNBC for quite some time this week, I'm under the impression that Queen Elizabeth, as others call her, will soon be a voice in the wilderness. She will get a lot of TV time only because there are so few members left in Pelosi's Party but her opinions won't amount to much. 

Offshore Wind Project Comes On-Line, 60% More Than EIA Estimate; 10X Cost Of New NG Plant; Definition Of Insanity: NYC To Repeat Science Project; Obama Legacy -- December 18, 2016

Updates

Later, 3:15 p.m. Central Time: from another reader, quoting other source(s). There were a couple of "justifications" for this boondoggle:

• bragging rights -- very, very expensive bragging rights
• huge payoff for owners down the road -- maybe soon with tax credits, investors
• Obama's legacy

Form the Block Island Times, bragging rights:

... an undersea electric transmission cable linking Block Island to the mainland is now a reality. On Thursday, June 23, National Grid landed its 30-megawatt sea-to-shore cable at the Fred Benson Town Beach to make the connection. National Grid then spliced its $107 million sea-to-shore cable with the terrestrial cable on Tuesday, June 28 at 5 p.m.

The reader's comments with slight editing:

The $290 million 30 MW wind farm has a $107 million "interconnect" cable tied into the "national" grid.

None of this was done to provide power to the "national" grid.

The cable is for the 75% of the time, more or less, that the wind speed is "incorrect."

Justification for this boondoggle was as a pilot project for a $multi-billion follow-up wind farm and to "displace the diesel generators" in current use supplying the 5-megawatt load.

A $107 million cable/substation to connect to a 25 megawatt peak capacity, intermittent and non-dispatchable source?

No one can be that stupid to do this again ... hopefully America's first and last offshore wind farm boondoggle.

Later, 12:25 p.m. Central Time: my mistake. The Block Island off-shore wind farm provides electricity to the state's electric grid; it was not built to supply electricity specifically to the island. For now, I will leave up the original post but later will correct it. From a reader regarding Deepwater Wind (DW Wind):

• power goes to mainland, to local utility
• power to Block Island originates from mainland-base utility and transmitted via new cable (NOT included in cost projections for DW Wind)
• built in, incremental rate increae for DW Wind owners that, decades on, guarantees about 50 cents/KWh fee ... five times PA residential rate
• current, long time Block Island power sourced by aged diesel generators. They wanted long term, reliable electric. Costs of DW project disbursed throughout state

Later, 10:57 a.m. Central Time: My fingers were frozen, and I accidentally clicked on "delete" rather than "publish" and once deleted, unable to recover. Sorry about that. A reader noted, see comments:

Block Island is no getaway for the elite; it's a place to get drunk on a summer weekend.  

That explains the decision for the wind towers, I guess.

Original Post

 

A big "thank you" to a reader spotting this one. From IER, December 16, 2016, a most expensive offshore wind farm becomes operational. Data points (these are my original data points; some are in error, see updates above):

• off the coast of Rhode Island
• Block Island Wind Farm
• 30 MW facility -- repeat, a 30MW facility
• five large offshore turbines; GE Renewable Energy; operated by Deepwater Wind
• to supply energy to 1,000 full-time residents of Block Island
• years and year of state / federal / town hall meetings / yada, yada, yada
• $300 million 
• $10,000/kw
• 10 times more than the cost of a new natural gas combined cycle unit
• 58% more costly than what the EIA expects a first-of-a-kind offshore wind unit to cost

The definition of insanity:

• Long Island, NY, to do the same thing. 

Thoughts:

• $300 million / 1,000 residents =  $300,000 / resident.
• What was the source of their electricity prior to the wind towers?
• Do the wind towers supply all electricity? Of course not. Back-up is still needed for when the wind is not blowing or blowing too fast. 
• Does anybody even think about these things?
  There was already some source for electricity for theses 1,000 residents, so wind was not a last-ditch option.

Based on the wiki entry, Block Island looks like a getaway for the elites and thus explains the largess and boondoggle:

The Nature Conservancy added Block Island to its list of "The Last Great Places"; the list consists of twelve sites in the Western Hemisphere. About 40 percent of the island is set aside for conservation.

Presidents Bill Clinton, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Ulysses S. Grant have visited Block Island.

Other famous visitors include Amelia Earhart and Charles Lindbergh, who each made separate trips to the island in 1929.

Block Island is coextensive with the town of New Shoreham. The island is a popular summer tourist destination and is known for its bicycling, hiking, sailing, fishing, and beaches.

The island hosts two historic lighthouses: Block Island North Light, on the northern tip of the island, and Block Island Southeast Light, on the southeastern side. Much of the northwestern tip of the island is an undeveloped natural area and resting stop for birds along the Atlantic Flyway.

Every summer the island hosts Block Island Race Week, a competitive, week-long sailboat race. On odd years, the event is held by the Storm Trysail Club, and on even years by the Block Island Race Week. Yachts compete in various classes, sailing courses in Block Island Sound and circumnavigating the island.

No wonder Michelle (Obama) has lost all hope for the US.