Eight New Permits; Four Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48597B.

The China Deal: details don't matter; no one cares. "We" simply care that the deal has been signed. Later: inaccurate reporting. "The deal" has not been signed but "an understanding has been agreed to." LOL.

WTI: $65.24.

Active rigs: 32.

Eight new permits, #42055 - #42062, inclusive:

• Operator: Koda Resources
• Field: Daneville, Alkabo (both in Divide County)
• Comments:
• Koda Resources has permits for eight Bock wells, lots 2 and 3, section 3-161-102;
• to be sited 409 / 609 FNL and 2586 / 2637 FWL

Four permits renewed, #40010 - #40013, inclusive:

• Operator: Neptune Operating
• Fields: Winner, Blue Ridge, both in Williams County.

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 41167, 1,515, CLR, Arley 6-18H, Williams County;
• 41168, 1,712, CLR, Christiana 8-6H, Williams County;

What Do They Want? Holy Mackerel! Only "Modestly" Higher -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48596MARKET.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The Lunar Men: Five Friends Whose Curiosity Changed The World, Jenny Uglow, c. 2003. 

Notes will be placed here.

The first time I read this book, I did not care for it. This time my mind is ready for this book and I love it. Absolutely love it on so many levels.

I can't decide whether Benjamin Franklin was a central player, a peripheral player, and if either, what role he played. Best single word descriptor might be: catalyst. 

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Background

I think I first "defined" the sixth industrial revolution on / about October 30, 2024. It could have been earlier and the definition may have been modified over time, but this is pretty accurate as it stands.

See wiki, as currently understood and generally accepted:

• first industrial revolution: 1760 - 1840; ended in the middle of the 19th century; inventions; advancements in textiles; age of inventions;
  
• second industrial revolution: advancements in manufacturing processes; 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; computer coming out of WWII; Colossus, Bletchley Park;
  
• fourth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s; the Age of Apple (or the personal computer).
  

Much better:

• first industrial revolution: ended in the middle of the 19th century; age of invention;
  
• second industrial revolution: 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of Henry Ford, mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: peri-WWI -- the age of conventional manufacturing and logistics; rise of synthetics and the oil and gas industry; age of Standard Oil (or the age of John D Rockefeller);
  
• fourth industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; the computer age (or the age of Turing);
  
• fifth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s -- maybe it began in 1984 with the (in)famous Apple commercial; age of Apple (or the age of Steve Jobs)

  The question is whether "we" have entered the sixth industrial revolution: Nvidia blades; LDCs; a return to nuclear energy to meet energy needs of the information age. If so:
  

•  sixth industrial revolution: artificial intelligence enters its stride; the "Nvidia revolution."

It's hard for me to accept that the need for nuclear energy to meet the needs of LDCs does not signify a new industrial revolution.

Note: "the Nvidia revolution" is a metonym for the artificial intelligence advancements that began in the early 2020s. 

Headlines -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48595HEADLINES.

NBA draft:

• four of top five picks: Duke (2); Rutgers (2)
• three of top ten picks: Duke
• four of top twenty: France (think Ledger, crypto)
• #1 pick SF Cooper Flagg (Duke): Dallas Mavericks
• #2: San Antonio Spurs picked up the second overall pick; #2, PG Dylan Harper (Rutgers)
• #3: SG VJ Edgecombe (Baylor) -- Philadelphia 76ers
• #4: SF Kon Knueppel (Duke) -- Charlotte Hornets
• #5: SF Ace Bailey (Rutgers) -- Utah Jazz

Thread of the day: twenty-five most beautiful national parks in the world, link here. 

Many parks not listed below are in India, Japan, New Zealand, China. In the big scheme of things, there are two locations for these parks: easily accessible in the US; incredibly inaccessible exotic locations where only the rich, elite can visit more than three times in their lifetimes. The US: what a great country.

• #1: Banff National Park, Canada
• #3: Glacier National Park, Montana
• #7: Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah
• #10: Yosemite National Parks
• #13: Yellowstone National Park, USA
• #16: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona
• #20: Grand Teton National Park

• Notably absent:

• UK
• Europe (with two exceptions, and hardly even in Europe)
• Russia
• Iceland
• South American (most; all?)
• Malaysia
  

Headlines:

• Apple win: Trump administration scraps "made in the  USA" tag for the Trump gold smartphone) 
• why wind and solar can't meet rising energy needs: oilprice.
• Shell confirms it is not buying BP at this time: links everywhere.
  
• Cramer: remembers a list of billionaires that bailed on Nvidia. Was Nancy on that list? x.
• Nvidia: closes at record high yesterday and in pre-trading today, up another 1%
  
• One of my favorite / more incredible x contributors has lost his/her mojo: x
  
• JPow: is no longer data dependent; basing rate decisions on "what if's" in the future: x
  
• the tariff story is over, dead, inconsequential: CNBC
  
• Mideast making the Mideast great again; Iran is irrelevant and Israel will keep it that way; at least during the Netanyahu-Trump era: comment
• Trump getting closer to naming a "shadow" Federal Reserve chairman
  

Tech story of the day: Micron.

Micron makes two main types of memory chips: DRAM and Nand. DRAM chips act as the main memory in PCs, servers and other devices, working closely with central processing units. Nand flash provides longer-term data storage.

• June 22, 2025: Micron, #5 on list of 10 most undervalued stocks in analyst's portfolio
• December 23, 2024: tech jargon. 
• October 14, 2024: Insider Monkey.
• September 25, 2024: Micron earnings released; after release, Micron jumped $14, trading at $109.
• September 19, 2024: Apple in talks with Micron.

The Nancy Pelosis Portfolio -- Random Update -- Focus On Nvidia -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48594PELOSI.

According to ChatGPT:

As of January 14, 2025, Nancy Pelosi (or more accurately, her husband Paul Pelosi) holds call options on Nvidia stock—specifically 50 call options with a strike price of $80 expiring January 16, 2026.

Here’s a quick summary of their recent Nvidia activity: 

Dec 31, 2024: Sold 10,000 Nvidia shares (~$1M–$5M) and exercised 500 call options (50,000 shares) at a $12 strike price

Jan 14, 2025: Purchased 50 new Nvidia call options with an $80 strike expiring Jan 2026 (worth between $250K–$500K). [50 contracts x 100 = 5,000 shares]

So yes—they still “hold” Nvidia exposure through these Jan‑2026 call options. They no longer own the originally held shares (most were sold at the end of 2024), but they have kept a betting position in options.

If you’d like to know how these options are performing now, or what this means in terms of portfolio strategy, I’m happy to dive deeper!

According to The New York Post, "Nancy Pelosi's portfolio" outperformed every large hedge fund in 2024. Her portfolio is widely available for those interested.

History:

• at "end" of 2024, shares of NVDA: at best, $150
• today, NVDA: $154
• could have added more in April, 2025 for around $95

US Equity Markets At All-Time Highs -- Trump Has Been President For Less Than Six Months -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48593ECONOMY.

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Trump

According to ChatGPT: there are 157 days between January 20, 2025, and June 26, 2025.

Full employment.

GDP growing at 2%+.

Peace in the Mideast.

Russia considering selling assets to pay for war in Ukraine.

Trump getting closer to naming a "shadow" Federal Reserve chairman. 

This is how this will play out. Every two months when the JPow Federal reserve reports to Congress, the GOP will ask for a similar report from the "shadow" Fed.

This will get very, very interesting. Right now, President Trump sees JPow as the only "game in town" when it comes to interest rate decisions; Trump wants to see a bit more "discussion."

And, if Trump plays it right, the "shadow" Fed will report after JPow testifies, pretty much leaving the "shadow Fed" with the last word. 

After the above was posted, we got this month's economic numbers.

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Economic Numbers

Economic numbers today:

• Durable goods up 16.4% vs up 7.5%
• wildly strong number
• to some extent, due to aircraft / airline industry 
• non-defense aircraft
• ex non-defense aircraft: also a very, very good number
  
• GDP 1Q third reading: -0.5% vs prior -0.2%
  
• maybe not good, but long forgotten
• currently GDPNow running about 2.5%
  
• consumption: up but not as good as expected
• initial jobless claims: down 1,000 to 236,000
• estimated: 247,000
• speaks against any need to lower Fed rates
• Q1 PCE price index
• +3.7% vs prior +3.4%

Steve Liesman comments:

• Liesman:
• everything looking a bit better
• reminded folks that the Fed cut rates 50 basis points just before the 2024 presidential election
  
• Goolsbee, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
• job market: feels like we're pretty stable, month-over-month-over-month; so much better than a year ago
• stable employment -- good
• tariffs: still the biggest question mark 
• threw a bunch of dust in the air; needs clarity 
• if people don't freak out in raising tariffs around the world, won't see much inflation due to tariffs
• goods only contribute 11% to US economy (GDP); and tariffs only a small part of US goods
  
• dual mandate: still doing pretty good; rates likely to go down 
• on Trump announcing a "shadow Fed": Goolsbee -- says he doesn't know 
• reasonable: 3% with 2% inflation rate with 1% difference
• 150 basis points / 3 cuts of 50 basis points
  
• Joe Kernan
• the Fed worried about tariffs and not a bit worried about a trillion-dollar New Green Deal that "almost went through" -- what the heck?
  
• Comments
• more and more, tariffs are a political headline; doesn't affect the real world in the big scheme of things
• talking heads still confuse "tariffs" with "balance of trade"
  
• closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a whole lot more significant
• while Goolsbee spoke, the market keeps trending up

Big Story Today -- Oil -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48592OIL.

Tells me two things:

• global economy on fire, hitting on all cylinders; and,
• renewable energy is dead; some will argue, "not dead." That's fine: it's part of an irrelevant niche in the energy arena and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

Even wiki has lost interest, most recent data, from years ago, for Kansas:

Kansas, 2025:

Kansas -- numbers for Google AI:

• 2024: 4,000 wind turbines.
• 2023: 4,000
• 2022: 4,395
• 2021: 4,395
• 2020: 3,500 

From ChooseEnergy, link here.

Bakken Patoka Crude Differential Hits One-Year High -- RBN Energy -- June 26, 2025

Locator: 48591B.

Link here. Archived.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Locator: 48590B.

Nvidia (NVDA): up 810% in three years. Now most folks suggesting Nvidia will be a $4-trillion company; some say more, trending toward $6 trillion.

Headlines:

• Apple win: Trump administration scraps "made in the  USA" tag for the Trump gold smartphone) 
• why wind and solar can't meet rising energy needs: oilprice.
• Shell confirms it is not buying BP at this time: links everywhere.
  
• Cramer: remembers a list of billionaires that bailed on Nvidia. Was Nancy on that list? x.
• Nvidia: closes at record high yesterday and in pre-trading today, up another 1%
  
• One of my favorite / more incredible x contributors has lost his/her mojo: x
  
• JPow: is no longer data dependent; basing rate decisions on "what if's" in the future: x
  
• the tariff story is over, dead, inconsequential: CNBC
  
• Mideast making the Mideast great again; Iran is irrelevant and Israel will keep it that way; at least during the Netanyahu-Trump era: comment
• Trump getting closer to naming a "shadow" Federal Reserve chairman
  

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Back to the Bakken

Bakken Patok crude differential hits one-year high -- RBN Energy. Link here. Archived.

WTI: $65.10. Oil holds.

New wells:

• Friday, June 27, 2025: 58 for the month, 211 for the quarter, 425 for the year,
• 41259, conf, CLR, Putnam 2-25H,
• 40766, conf, Oasis, Olson State Federal 5399 41-9 2B,
• 40658, conf, Enerplus, Reel 149-95-36D-25H,
• 40657, conf, Enerplus, Line 149-95-36D-25H,
• Thursday, June 26, 025: 54 for the month, 207 for the quarter, 421 for the year,
• None.

RBN Energy: choice of well tubing plays a key role as horizontal laterals extend their reach. 

Since its beginning in western Pennsylvania 166 years ago, the oil and gas industry has been on a relentless quest to unlock more hydrocarbons. And for years, the focus has been on drilling more productively, not just drilling more wells. The techniques that have evolved since the start of the Shale Revolution have led to rapid increases in the length of horizontal laterals, boosting initial production (IP) rates — a critical development but posing new challenges for drillers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss why longer laterals in horizontal wells aren’t the answer in every shale play, the advantages of the two types of tubing used in those wells, and how they can help boost productivity.