Locator: 48593ECONOMY.
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Trump
According to ChatGPT: there are 157 days between January 20, 2025, and June 26, 2025.
Full employment.
GDP growing at 2%+.
Peace in the Mideast.
Russia considering selling assets to pay for war in Ukraine.
Trump getting closer to naming a "shadow" Federal Reserve chairman.
This is how this will play out. Every two months when the JPow Federal reserve reports to Congress, the GOP will ask for a similar report from the "shadow" Fed.
This will get very, very interesting. Right now, President Trump sees JPow as the only "game in town" when it comes to interest rate decisions; Trump wants to see a bit more "discussion."
And, if Trump plays it right, the "shadow" Fed will report after JPow testifies, pretty much leaving the "shadow Fed" with the last word.
After the above was posted, we got this month's economic numbers.
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Economic Numbers
Economic numbers today:
- Durable goods up 16.4% vs up 7.5%
- wildly strong number
- to some extent, due to aircraft / airline industry
- non-defense aircraft
- ex non-defense aircraft: also a very, very good number
- GDP 1Q third reading: -0.5% vs prior -0.2%
- maybe not good, but long forgotten
- currently GDPNow running about 2.5%
- consumption: up but not as good as expected
- initial jobless claims: down 1,000 to 236,000
- estimated: 247,000
- speaks against any need to lower Fed rates
- Q1 PCE price index
- +3.7% vs prior +3.4%
Steve Liesman comments:
- Liesman:
- everything looking a bit better
- reminded folks that the Fed cut rates 50 basis points just before the 2024 presidential election
- Goolsbee, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
- job market: feels like we're pretty stable, month-over-month-over-month; so much better than a year ago
- stable employment -- good
- tariffs: still the biggest question mark
- threw a bunch of dust in the air; needs clarity
- if people don't freak out in raising tariffs around the world, won't see much inflation due to tariffs
- goods only contribute 11% to US economy (GDP); and tariffs only a small part of US goods
- dual mandate: still doing pretty good; rates likely to go down
- on Trump announcing a "shadow Fed": Goolsbee -- says he doesn't know
- reasonable: 3% with 2% inflation rate with 1% difference
- 150 basis points / 3 cuts of 50 basis points
- Joe Kernan
- the Fed worried about tariffs and not a bit worried about a trillion-dollar New Green Deal that "almost went through" -- what the heck?
- Comments
- more and more, tariffs are a political headline; doesn't affect the real world in the big scheme of things
- talking heads still confuse "tariffs" with "balance of trade"
- closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a whole lot more significant
- while Goolsbee spoke, the market keeps trending up
