2 NM -- Update -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48721CHIPS.

"2 nm process." Tag: 2-nm 2-NM  

Link here.

Chips are tracked here. 

We should start seeing more stories on 2-nm chips.  2-nm chips are tracked here.

2-nm chips should start appearing in the second half of 2025 (this year).

Demographics -- Already Getting Ready For Gen Beta -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48720DEMOG.

Demographics are tracked here.

Of note, this year, 2025, and perhaps last year, 2024, is the last birth year for Generation Alpha. 

Generation Alpha: as early as 2010 through 2025. Some sources specify 2013 as the start date and an ending year of 2028.

Generation Beta (often shortened to Gen Beta) is the proposed name for the demographic cohort succeeding Generation Alpha. 

The name was coined by futurist and demographer Mark McCrindle (who also coined the name Generation Alpha). [Brilliant. I wonder what it takes to be a "futurist"?] He defines the cohort as those born from 2025 to 2039.

Researchers have not yet formed a general consensus as to the generation's birth years; since no official body determines generational boundaries, definitions may vary. Link here.

US LNG Exports -- Forecast -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48719LNG.

Remember, this is the these: the AI revolution is an energy story, specifically a natural gas story. 

This blog begins its focus on LNG, but LNG is just a part of the much larger natural gas story.

Link here. 

"From a US point of view, most US projects don’t have price exposure, so as long as their offtakers pay the liquefaction fees even if they cancel cargoes, they will be fine.

We saw this in 2020 when we had many cancellations -- the year of the Covid-19 lockdown.

Over time, demand growth will absorb any length so [one] would expect that cancellations would be limited in duration.

The market will ultimately sort out who wins and who loses. The reality is that although the sector has been revitalized by Trump's position on LNG projects, a more favorable regulatory environment alone won't alter the underlying economics, and in fact, many projects will not advance beyond the filing stage. [I've heard that before.]

The chart:

• When you look at the chart, the first question to ask: so, when did the AI revolution begin?

So, does the chart help? When did the AI revolution begin? Well, that's a bit difficult to say; the revolution evolved over time. There was no "shot heard 'round the world" like the shots heard "round the world" on April 19, 1775.

But the graph above suggests the AI revolution began in 2019. The following year, 2020, is an outlier due to the Covid-19 shutdown.  But 2019, 2021, 2023 certainly suggest the "revolution" began in 2019. Or the LNG folks saw it coming. Or geopolitical issues in Europe / China drove the growth, regardless of AI, in 2019. Who knows.

Can that be corroborated? I don't know, but let's explore. What would be the next proxy after LNG demand?

Yes, demand for "blades."

And one gets this proxy, Nvidia:

So, it's hard to say.

Perhaps geo-political events in Europe / China drove the early spike (2019) but then the AI revolution sustained LNG demand.

2019 looks like the year to consider. Ask ChatGPT "what was Jensen Huang / Nvidia doing in 2019?"

Answer:

• In 2019, Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of Nvidia, was focused on expanding the company's leadership in AI, data centers, and graphic processing while steering through a challenging but transitional year. Bullets:
• recovery after the crypto slump
• stabilized revenue from gaming GPUs
• doubling down on AI and data centers
• Huang emphasized moving from "just a GPU company" to a full-stack AI computing company
• laid the foundation for Nvidia's future dominance in accelerated computing which would explode during the AI boom of 2023 -2024 
• in addition to specific Nvidia launches, Nvidia also acquired Mellanox Technologies in March, 2019, a $7-billion acquisition -- a company that specialized in high-performance networking (InfiniBand, Etheret)

So,

• 2019: Huang lit the fuze for the shot that would be heard 'round the world
• 2023 - 2024: the cannon was fired -- to continue the analogy

But let's keep going. Let's ask ChatGP, what drove the explosion in US LNG export terminals in 2019?

The answer -- a combination of market dynamics, technological advances, policy support (the Biden autopen), and global demand trends. Specifically:

• surging global demad for LNG (Asia and Europe)
• US shale gas boom: large surplus of cheap gas
• LNG technology improvements (liquefaction and transport)
• first movers showed success (Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass: first major US export terminal began exporting in 2016
• US regulatory and policy support (Biden's auto-pen): DOE and FERC streamlined approvals
• strong project economics and contracts (long-term offtake agreements with foreign buyers)
• shift in global LNG market structure: spot trading and portfolio contracts rather than rigid long-term deals; US could be flexible

Key projects in 2019

• Sabine Pass, Cheniere
• Corpus Christi, Chenieere
• Freeport LNG
• Cameron LNG, Sempra
• Elba Island, Kinder Morgan
• Golden Pass (FID 2019), XOM/Qatar Energy

So, if asked in the future, I will argue that the AI revolution began:

• when the fuse was lit in 2019: Nvidia's leadership but specifically Mellanox Technologies; and,
  
• the gun went off in 2023, with the phrase, “the magnificent seven”: 
• phrase first used by Michael Harnett, BofA, May, 2023,
• but popularized by Jim Cramer on June 1, 2023, during the mid-year tech rally.
  

Acquiring Mellanox Technologies? Brilliant. Huang may have "bet the farm" on that deal.

Maybe Better Than Tariffs -- We Have Multi-Day Sales Every Quarter -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48718AMAZON.

Updates

July 13, 2025: link here.

Americans spent the equivalent of what they would on two Black Fridays over the course of Amazon.com’s AMZN +1.24% Prime Day event, ending the four-day shopping extravaganza on a high note. U.S. retailers drove $24.1 billion in online spend from Tuesday through Friday, up 30.3% from 2024, according to new data from Adobe ADBE -2.18% released Saturday morning. This is more than double the $10.8 billion that people spent on Black Friday last year, Adobe said.

Original Post 

CNBC: I remember "day 1" of the Amazon Prime days -- CNBC said that "day one" did not start out as strongly as folks had thought it would. That told me the "bean counters" did not understand human psychology. In any four-day sale, folks expect prices to get better and better as the days and then the hours go by.

Is this a 36% savings?

And that's exactly what happened. 

There's a lot of other things that could be said but I simply don't have the time or interest. It's too obvious.

Link here. 

July 12 (Reuters) - Online spending soared $24.1 billion across U.S. retailers during the stretch from July 8 to 11 – dubbed "Black Friday in Summer", outpacing Adobe Analytics' prior forecast, as eager shoppers rushed to snap up deep discounts on back-to-school essentials.

Geoff Simon's Quick Connects -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48717GEOFFSIMON.

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Geoff Simon's Quick Connects 

• State's largest coal plant plans to power North Dakota data center park -- InForum

• Vice President Vance talks energy production during visit to North Dakota -- KFYR - TV

• Basin testifies that data centers are not behind need for nat gas plant -- The Journal

• North Dakota considers proposed natural gas pipelines that would stretch across the state -- KFYR - TV

• New Applied Digital report further argues the case for more AI data centers in North Dakota -- WZFG

• Morton County eyes carbon capture regulations after project was cut -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota oil production sees slight dip in April, industry remains resilient -- McKenzie County Farmer

• Wyoming's first new coal mine in decades aims to extract rare earth minerals -- Wyoming Public Media

• BLM announces oil and gas lease sale for Montana, North Dakota set for September 10 -- NBC Montana

• North Dakota climate plan being finalized in different world than the one it started in -- Bismarck Tribune

• NDSU research shows proposed 45Z credit changes could shift biofuel economics -- News Release

• Governor Armstrong announces program to help producers affected by severe storms -- KFYR - TV

• North Dakota tribes to take voting disenfranchisement lawsuit to US Supreme Court -- Dickinson Press

• Power line caused North Dakota wildfire on Fort Berthold Reservation last year -- Bismarck Tribune

• State lawmakers won't challenge partial veto of housing, homelessness funds -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota lawmakers plan to hold hearing on security concerns after Minnesota attacks -- KVRR

• Law raising interstate speed limit to 80 mph, higher fines, will go into effect August 1 -- KX News

• Rep. Fedorchak talks the 'big, beautiful bill,' Medicaid and town hall meetings -- Dickinson Press

• Canadian wildfire smoke poised to again impact North Dakota in the coming days -- Bismarck Tribune

• New measles case confirmed in Williams County, bringing state's total to 35 -- North Dakota Monitor

• Produced water spill reported in Williams County fifteen miles south of Tioga -- Minot Daily News

• Armstrong traveling to Turtle Mountain as part of commitment to strengthen relations -- Bismarck Tribune

• Mayor candidate Josiah Roise files federal lawsuit against city police, county sheriff -- Minot Daily News

• Lewis & Clark Regional Development Council to hire director to help local communities -- Beulah Beacon

• Emergency crews in Stanley respond to gas leak at County Medical Center -- Mountrail County Promoter

• City of Kenmare to replace water main; current pipe at the end of its useful life -- Minot Daily News

• Dickinson's Roughrider Days parade draws record crowds, ends with epic fireworks -- Dickinson Press

• North American Coal and its employees raise more than $31,000 for child care center -- Hazen Star

• Hazen musicians, Tigirlily Gold, will release new song in partnership with ND Tourism -- KFYR - TV

• $12K boiler system repair, bus acquisition biggest impacts on CSPS budget -- The Center Republican

• First days on the job: CSPS superintendent Adam Hill settles in to new position -- The Center Republican

• North Dakota school districts get no "summer break" from budget maneuvering -- Public News Service

• Millions in federal money frozen for North Dakota after-school programs next year -- Bismarck Tribune

• States in 'triage mode' over Dept. of Education withholding $6B in K-12 funding -- North Dakota Monitor

• Fargo school board planning to vote on a new $45 million northside elementary school -- InForum

• An updated collection of all the rule changes coming to North Dakota high school sports -- KX News

• "Zero Tolerance" EPA launches investigation into effort to upend will of American people -- Breitbart

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says new Canadian oil pipeline is 'highly likely' -- Oil Price

• U.S. House passes Trump's tax bill in move that reverses much of Biden's clean energy push -- World Oil

• Trump administration warns of blackout risks rising as AI, reindustrialization push strain grid -- The Hill

• National Weather Service defends its flood warnings amid scrutiny of Trump staff cuts -- NBC News

• White House blasts the suggestion that Trump's cuts contributed to Texas flooding death toll -- PBS

• US to produce less oil in 2025 than previously expected amid declining prices, EIA says -- Reuters

• AI's ultimate challenge isn't technological. Can oil and gas solve the power dilemma? -- Utility Dive

• Crude futures fall over 2% as traders reacted to fresh tariff threats from President Trump -- Oil Price

• IEA executive director argues that the world must prepare to address energy security threats -- Oil Price

• Robert Bryce: US is screwed on rare earths?and China's not letting go of its grip -- Financial Sense

• The green lobby's dishonest crusade for solar and wind; renewables fail to deliver -- RealClearMarkets

Breaking News -- Tariffs -- Mexico, EU -- 30% -- 9:07 A.M. CT -- July 12, 2025

Locator: 48716TARIFFS.

Canada is threatened with 35% tariffs. Reported earlier this week. 

Link to NY Times here. 

Right now there's no evidence of significant inflation occurring in US due to tariffs.

US customs duties top $100 billion for first time in a fiscal year. Link at Reuters.

And, again, no no evidence of significant inflation occurring in US due to tariffs.

And jobs being brought back to America. 

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The Book Page

Without question, one of the best “history” books I’ve read in a long time is Assyria, The Rise and Fall of he World’s First Temple, Eckart Frahm, c. 2023.

For those who want to add to their knowledge of the Bible, highly, highly recommended.

It was hard for me to get into the book, but once I seriously paid attention I realized how good it was. The chapters developed a pattern and it was easy to move through the middle chapters fairly quickly because they tended to “repeat the theme” of the Assyrian Kingdom. And then just when I thought I was coming to an end, the author surprised me with several incredible chapters relating the history of Assyria to specific books of the Bible. At that point, I did not want the 500+ page book to come to an end.