Sunday, September 22, 2019

Truth In Advertising -- September 22, 2019

Earlier this week, a reader sent me a link to this KFYR [K-Fire] TV, Bismarck, ND: Taiwan to purchase agricultural products to the tune of $3.5 billion from the US over the next two years. That includes soybeans and wheat, some of which could come from North Dakota, along with corn and beef.

Sounds huge, doesn't it?

Sounds like another bragging point for President Trump.

What irritates me with today's journalists: so much is never put in perspective. In this case, how does $3.5 billion over two years compare to recent history?

It took less than a New York minute to find the answer.

Here's the USDA link.

Here's the screenshot:

So, note. From the same source, the USDA via IHS Markit, in 2018, Taiwan imported $11.746 billion worth of agricultural products from around the world. It was estimated that 36% of that was from the US.

36% of $11.746 billion = $4.223 billion. For one year.

$4.223 billion for one year.

Now, back to the KFYR-TV story:$3.8 billion over two years. Taiwan plans to buy less over two years than they bought from the US last year, and the year before that, and in 2014.

Disclaimer: I often make simply errors in arithmetic.

Trading Oil; And, Streaming Amazon Music On The Echo Dot -- September 22, 2019

From oilprice:

I don't have time to expand on this, so pretty much verbatim from a reader this past week:

Following the attack on Saudi Arabia (two days earlier, on a non-trading Saturday, 1.4 billion barrels of US light sweet crude was traded on Monday, two days later, first trading day after the attack.

1.4 billion bbls is 112 times more than what we produce.

Link: Contracts for  for 1,000 bbls.

The reader noted:
Hover over the bar graph and it shows total trading volume was at 3.68 million contracts, or 3.68 billion barrels of crude...that doesn't even include the 517 million options to buy or sell crude contracts that also traded Monday.
When I suggested to the reader my thoughts on the trading he replied:
More than likely it's just a lot of speculators trying to make a quick buck on the wild swings in oil looks like about 3 times the normal volume of trading on quiet days, so I'd have to guess that a lot of funds that normally don't trade oil regularly were in there buying or selling...3.68 billion times $60 oil with over a 15% swing in prices during the day means a lot of guys lost their shirts, while others bought their babies a new pair of shoes.. 
The point I usually make when i mention this is that it's the speculators in New York and London who control the price of oil, just based on the shear volume they trade electronically, compared to the physical quantity available...
BTW, this was an all-time record amount of trading.

The reader will expand on this in "Focus on Fracking," which will be updated this evening.


That's the price of unlimited Amazon music streaming. One can also get it for free and probably get 90% of the Amazon music library, but if you want it all, it will cost $8/month. For that price you can listen to the music on any Echo Dot in the house, but if you want to hear it simultaneously on all Echos in the house, one needs to pay another $10 (or something like that; we don't have that) for the "Family Plan."

I don't know if it's worth it or not. How would I know? All I know is that whatever I ask Alexa to play, she finds it for me and plays it for me.

Occasionally she doesn't understand what I'm saying and it takes a couple of times to get what I'm looking for, but that's actually a bit of the allure, I suppose.

Today, I was reading an essay on Robbie Robertson in the weekend edition of the WSJ. While reading the article, I asked Alexa, "Play Robbie Robertson." Unlike YouTube there will be no commercial interruptions and the entire library will play. It will last longer than I will be in the house this afternoon.

Somewhere Down The Crazy River, Robbie Robertson

Productivity Per Rig Keeps Increasing In The Bakken -- September 22, 2019

I can't recall if I have already posted these. They appear new.
It should be noted that more and more "children" wells are being drilled every month in the Bakken. I would wager that "children" wells now account for majority of wells being drilled in North Dakota. And production keeps improving. See this post.

From A Reader

Large Quilt

North Dakota Natural Gas Flaring Relief in Sight as More Infrastructure Comes Online -- NGI -- September 22, 2019

Link here. Paywall. I read the article earlier but now when I go back to it, I'm blocked out. I will see if I can find another source.

Natural gas processing plants in North Dakota are tracked here.

Projected, processing capability, increase, year-over-year:
  • 2017: 2,137 MMCFD
  • 2018: 2,452 MMCFD, 15% increase y/y;
  • 2019: 3,162 MMCFD, 30% increase y/y;
  • 2020: 3,407 MMCFD, 8% increase y/y;
  • 2021: 3682 MMCFD, 8% increase y/y; a 75% increase since 2017;

Another Bakken Well With Huge Jump In Production -- September 22, 2019

The well:
  • 32626, 590, BR, Blegen Ranch 3D TFH-ULW, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 383K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Nine Point Energy To Report Several Nice Wells This Next Week -- September 22, 2019

35628, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35312, conf, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34825, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34909, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-7H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35311, conf,  CLR, Putnam 7-25H, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35310, conf,  CLR, Putnam 6-25H1, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35703, conf, Petroshale, Thunder Cloud 2MBH, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34824, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-6H, Elk:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 22, 2019

Monday, September 30, 2019: 73 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
35628, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H,
33592, conf, BR, Anderson Ranch 1E MBH, 

Sunday, September 29, 2019: 71 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
35312, conf, CLR, Putnam 8-25H1
34825, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-13H,

Saturday, September 28, 2019: 69 for the month; 201 for the quarter:

Friday, September 27, 2019: 69 for the month; 201 for the quarter:
35898, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 4-27-22MLH, 

Thursday, September 26, 2019: 68 for the month; 200 for the quarter:
35897, conf,  Slawson, Slasher Federal 5-27-22TFH
35552, conf,  Hess, SC-Barney-154-98-1819H-7, 
35551, conf,  Hess, SC-Barney-154-98-1819H-6,
34909, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-7H, 

Wednesday, September 25, 2019: 64 for the month; 196 for the quarter:
35896, conf, Slawson, Slasher Federal 3-27-22MLH,
35311, conf,  CLR, Putnam 7-25H,
35310, conf,  CLR, Putnam 6-25H1,

Tuesday, September 24, 2019: 61 for the month; 193 for the quarter:
35703, conf, Petroshale, Thunder Cloud 2MBH, 
34824, conf, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-6H,

Monday, September 23, 2019: 59 for the month; 191 for the quarter:
35413, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Austin 5-17-20-158N-99W TFH, , 
35037, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-4,  
34820, conf, XTO, Myrna Federal 21X-2EXH, 

Sunday, September 22, 2019: 56 for the month; 188 for the quarter:
35702, conf, Petroshale, Thunder Cloud 2MBH,
35038, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-5, 
34817, conf, XTO, Myrna 21X-2B, 

Saturday, September 21, 2019: 53 for the month; 185 for the quarter:
36003, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 2, 
35039, conf, Hess, BB-Charlier Loomer-150-95-0718H-6, 

Waste To Water -- From Basin To Basin, Oil And Gas Water Dilemma Grows As Production Booms -- Carlsbad (NM) Current Argus -- September 22, 2019

Link here.

If you have time to read only one article about unconventional oil this week, consider this article from Current Argus - Carlsbad. Archived.

Everything you could possibly want to know about waste water from shale operations.

From a New Mexico perspective:
We sent a reporter from the Carlsbad Current-Argus and a photojournalist from the Las Cruces Sun-News on a weeklong tour to North Dakota's Bakken region and Pennsylvania's Marcellus Basin to study how oil and gas' waste water dilemma is managed in two vastly different oil and gas fields. 
Reposting this link: the tour of the various oil fields

Wow, I hope these links are never lost. This is clearly worth the price you pay for the subscription to the MillionDollarWay.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Energy Stories From All Over -- September 22, 2019

First things first: Eric Jones becomes the first NASCAR driver disqualified from a Cup race under the new rules. Now we know why he was doing so well this year. Link here

Gasoline price map, link here. One state pretty much stands out.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, relationship, or travel plans based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Oasis. From a SeekingAlpha contributor, September 21, 2019; archived:

  • Oasis is a $1.3 billion market cap company most of whose production (93%) is in the Bakken (North Dakota)
  • in the second quarter, the company produced 84,500 BOE/D, of which a healthy 72.5% was oil
  • with a 50% liability-to-asset ratio and negative cash flow, investors appear to be waiting for better results. However, the company expects to become free cash flow positive in 2019
Investing in publicly traded oil companies. Kiplinger's seven "strong buy" candidates at this link. See disclaimer above. COP, Parsley, Marathon, Diamondback, Pioneer Natural Resources, Hess, EOG.

Pipelines: EPD -- forward growth creates investment opportunity. See disclaimer above. From a SeekingAlpha contributor. Not archived.
Enterprise Products Partners owns one of the largest pipeline and midstream infrastructure networks in the United States. In total, the company has approximately 50,000 miles of pipelines carrying liquids, refined products, and natural gas along with enough storage to handle 260 million barrels of liquids and refined products and 14 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
The company also has numerous supporting facilities including 26 processing plants, 23 fractionators, and 11 condensate distillation facilities. Finally, Enterprise Products Partners is one of the major firms supporting the emergence of the United States as an energy-exporting nation as it owns 18 export docks handling natural gas liquids, crude oil, refined products, and PGP.
Crude oil export terminal: EPD -- will build Gulf of Mexico crude terminal in two years - Reuters. Data points:
  • Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT)
  • Port of Houston
  • hope to get final approval, 2Q20
  • long-term agreements signed with CVX to support SPOT
  • will be capable of handling 2-million-bbl supertankers
  • company is building a new Permian crude pipeline; refused to confirm the name of that pipeline will be Midland-to-Echo 3
  • EPD forecasts US crude exports to climb from 3 million bopd today to 8 million bopd in the next few years
  • Permian, August, 2019: projections -- 4.21 million bopd 
Alva J Field wells south of Williston, on the other side of the river:

FWIW: August, 2019, Atmospheric CO2

I'm slipping. I forgot to post this earlier. Link here.

One year ago: 406.99.

Note the false precision: 406.99 parts per million. I'm sure they can measure this precisely but something tells me that measuring one hour or one hour later and the number would be different.

0.99 parts per 1,000,000 is precise to one part per hundred million (100,000,000) or about the amount of Native American DNA modern-day Pocahontas has in her blood.

Speaking of Pocahontas, this was sent to me. I'm thinking maybe it's fake.

How Long Does It Take To Drill And Complete A Bakken Well? Not Very Long -- September 22, 2019

".... and on the seventh day they rested."

From the September, 2019, Whiting presentation:

The Parent-Child Issue: Exhibit A -- September 22, 2019

For background, see this post: this is absolutely, positively not happening in the Bakken.

Exhibit A from September, 2019, Whiting presentation: