Saturday, August 19, 2017

Wow, Wow, Wow! Sempra Is The Mystery Third Bidder For Oncor -- August 19, 2017

Link here. Sempra is the mystery third bidder for Oncor. Warren has said he has made his final offer. If so, it looks like Warren is out of the bidding. I'll leave the poll up just for the fun of it.


Some people have written me suggesting that it is "normal" for wells to come back with increased production when they are shut-in for a number of months and then brought back on line. That's not my impression in the Bakken; it may occur (sometimes/often) but I don't know if I can call it "normal" for wells to come back stronger simply from recharging (being taken off-line for several months).

When I see a Bakken well that has significantly increased production after being off-line for a while, I assume it is something other than re-charging until proven otherwise.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. This well is in a great oil field, Clarks Creek, and yet after being off-line for almost a year, there was no bump in production once it was brought back on line (and, yes, perhaps the operator choked it back, limiting production):
  • 20891, 603, EOG, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, t8/11; cum 268K 6/17:
Monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Notes to the Granddaughters

While the older sisters are on their way to Nashville to see the eclipse, Sophia is shopping for groceries for Papa. Yes, she has my credit card. LOL.

A Confusing Well; Perhaps A Reader Has Insight -- August 19, 2017


May 18, 2019: #26419 and #17356 are about 100 feet to the west of #26007 and #26006.

November 28, 2017: regardless of what's going on, this is an incredible well:
  • 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/16; cum 227K 11/17; 
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I may be seeing things that don't exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Look at this post. I am still unable to explain the jump in production in 9/16 of #25961. [Update, January, 2018: just prior to the jump in production: a work-over rig on site, and a new pump put in; no evidence that is was re-fracked; no sundry form to suggest a re-frack and FracFocus does not show a re-frack.]

Note that all three wells on this 3-well pad were taken off-line 8/16, and then brought back on line in the next month or so. Generally, when one sees that, it means that a neighboring well was fracked.

In this case, when I originally looked at these three wells, I could find no evidence of a neighboring well being fracked.

Today, I took another look.

It turns out a neighboring well was fracked 8/16, the very month that these three wells were taken off-line.

But it still doesn't make sense.

All three wells showed a bump in production, though the Three Forks wells showed a minimum jump in production whereas the middle Bakken well showed a hug jump in production (from 5,000 bbls/month to 14,000 bbls / month). The jump in production did not last particularly long, but it's hard to believe the jump in production from 6,000 bbl/s month to 14,000 bbls/month was due to "recharging" when the well was off-line for less than a month.

I found the well that was fracked in 8/16 that was probably the reason for BR taking these wells off-line:
  • 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool (Three Forks), t9/16; cum 176K 6/17; a "small" frack, only 3.1 million gallons of water; 13% sand by weight;
The graphic:

Again, there are many, many problems with this:
  • distance between horizontals;
  • different formations;
  • closer horizontals, targeting same formations, jump in production much less than #25961
I still feel uncomfortable with this one but another good example of the peculiarities of the Bakken. 

New CLR Florida Wells Starting To Be Reported -- August 19, 2017

Link here.

Note the amount of proppant: 22 million lbs.

Florida wells are tracked here

Saturday, August 19, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs533274192183

The Bubble

I haven't looked at Scott Adams' blog in a long time. A reader linked me to one of his more recent posts which helps me put events of the past week in context.

It also helps explain the action of the stock market this past week. 

Notes To The Granddaughters 

At DFW on their way to Nashville, via Atlanta, GA, to see the eclipse.  Daughter and two granddaughters. The third granddaughter, Sophia, will remain here in Grapevine (Dallas) to observe the eclipse with me.