Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Active Rigs In North Dakota By Operator -- April 5, 2017


April 10, 2017: the number of active rigs jumped from 48 to 52. Since the previous report, this was the increase in active rigs (CLR, Enerplus, Kraken Operating, and Hess each increased by one):

  • CLR: went from 4 up to 5
  • Enerplus: went from 2 up to 3
  • Kraken Operating: went from 1 up to 2
  • Hess: went from 3 up to 4 
Original Post
From the NDIC, April 5, 2017.

Number of Rigs
Petro Hunt
Crescent Point
Liberty Resources
Lime Rock
McKenzie Energy (SWD)

After some recent posts, I was surprised to see that Statoil had two active rigs in North Dakota. But what really surprised me was that considering how active Slawson seems to be, Slawson has only one active rig in North Dakota.

The recent count has been as high as 51, so there may be two more rigs out there that will show up over the next few days.

Note: McKenzie Energy has one rig drilling a salt water disposal well

What A Bunch of Bulls.....April 5, 2017

From Saudi Arabia, US crude oil imports:

Source: here.

From OPEC, US crude oil imports:

Source: here

Don't even get me started.

Two More DUCs Reported Thursday -- April 5, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs492994192187

Three permits renewed:
  • Abraxas (3): three Yellowstone permits in McKenzie County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29949, 1,390, CLR, Hendrickson 7-36H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t3/17; cum --
  • 30335, 430, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 3-36H2 Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17 cum --  
The Hendrickson wells are tracked here

Three wells come off the confidential list Thursday:
26279, SI/NC, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-4H,  McGregory Buttes, no production data,
32756, SI/NC, XTO Bear Creek 31X-3F2, Bear Creek, no production data,
33042, drl, North Range Resources, Placid 28-2V, Rough Rider, no production data,

Note: from an earlier post --
  • 32883, drl, North Range Resources, LLC, Placid 28-1V, Rough Rider, target: Duperow, Mission Canyon, Souris River; spacing 160 acres; a "vertical well" but the target bottom hole will be 1301 feet north of well and 1058 feet east of well; no production data,
Placid target: sundry form on file requesting to drill an additional 124' deeper than their permitted depth, so they could log through the entire Three Forks formation. However, the Mission Canyon is still the target.

From the file report:

Graphic of two of the Placid vertical wells in Rough Rider oil field:

The Political Page, Part 2, T+74 -- April 5, 2017

Syria, Assad, chemical weapons: what the hell was Obama doing for eight years? Listening to the press conference this morning, one gets the feeling that is the question being asked inside the White House. I see Jared is back from the Middle East. My hunch is that we won't be waiting for January, 2018, to see Trump's response to latest "gas attack" nor will we be seeing any trip to the UN to get permission.

Be afraid: cupcakes, snowflakes, fruitcakes, be very afraid.  Be very afraid. Hearing Trump answer a question during today's press conference with the king of Jordan suggests there will be some interesting news coming out of the Middle East (and perhaps out of the Korean peninsula) any month now.

Fat man, be afraid, very afraid: did two missiles blow up on the pad? I missed the story; saw the headline. Apparently two NOKO missile launches in past 48 hours did not go as planned. Hmmm.

Pocahontas: I see the national average for women's pay is 80% of men's pay. In Elizabeth Warren's office, bless her, it is 71%. Whatever.

Filling the void. I had no problem with Steve Bannon being removed from the National Security Council, but "filling the void" with Rick Perry is the ultimate insult. I assume Perry will carry a "3 x 5 index card" with walking directions on how to get to the "war room." 

The Literature Page

The tornado siren just went off -- for a steady 30 - 90 seconds. I walked down to the mail box. Everyone was out and about, the routine, most probably thought it was the midday call to prayer or perhaps the siren announcing the break for lunch. [Later: I am told by a reader from Minnesota that states require a testing of tornado sirens annually, occurring about this time, early April. That would make sense.]

Whatever. I came away from the mail box with two huge wins: a) an Omaha Steak circular announcing a 1/2-off sale and free shipping; and, b) the most recent issue of  The New York Review of Books.

[Later, for the record, I no longer order anything from Omaha Steak for myself. However, when they offer a 1/2-off sale and free shipping, I always order something for my brother-in-law out in California. I did that a few minutes ago.]

Back to the New York Review of Books: a quick glance of the bios of the contributors and looking through the entire contents, this should be a good issue. Not one anti-Trump review or essay. There is a caricature of Trump and an article reviewing a book by a NYU lawyer but that's fine.

The first article I will read: "Postcards from the Edge," by Joyce Carol Oates, writing on Mary Miller, a minimalist fiction writer, even more minimalist than Ernest Hemingway. The best quote so far:
Any life will seem dramatic if you omit mention of most of it."

Hyped News -- The EIA Continues To Make A Big Deal Out Of Non-Dispatchable Energy -- April 5, 2017

For the archives.

The EIA, via twitter, makes a big deal that the amount of US wind energy consumption has increased 20% year-over-year.

The graph is worth a thousand words. Twenty percent of zero is still zero.

Total energy consumption by source. Of all sources, geothermal, wind, and solar need to be combined if they were to even show up on the graph. If broken out separately, wind and solar would come close to rounding to zero.

Hyperdrive: UPS To Build $200 Million Operations Facility Down The Road From Us -- April 5, 2017

I completely missed this; it has been in the local newspapers for the past couple of days. A reader sent me the link: UPS to build a $200 million package operations facility just 20 minutes down the road from us in Arlington, TX. Data points:
  • 110 acres
  • 1,100,000 square feet
  • $200 million
  • up to 1,400 full-time equivalent jobs (FTEs); other reports say 1,000
The graphic:

Inaugural Post: Einstein's Definition Of Insanity -- The List

It's come to this: we've had the annual Geico Rock Award for quite some time but it's been brought to my attention that I've been remiss in another category that needs to be tracked at the blog. To get on this list, I hope to set the bar quite high, so don't expect a lot of examples, but some examples are so egregious it's impossible to overlook them.

Additions To The List

May 12, 2020: the global response to corona virus

May 2, 2019: the California bullet train.

April 28, 2019: the Democrats' response to the "southern surge": catch and release.

July 23, 2017: let's add Senator Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to this list, who apparently doesn't understand basic economics. 

June 21, 2017: Wow, if you can't connect the dots, you aren't even trying. Nevada is resetting energy credits ....
... that officials say will make solar panels a more affordable option for home-owners and make the state a leader in clean energy production.
Gov. Brian Sandoval signed a bill Thursday at Tesla Energy Warehouse in Las Vegas that he says will also restore hundreds of solar-related jobs.
Assembly Bill 405 from Democratic Assemblyman Chris Brooks will reinstate favorable rates for residential customers to exchange some of their daytime energy for nighttime power from the state grid. Nevada's solar industry entered a tailspin in 2015 when state utility regulators began decreasing those credits. It prompted some generator manufacturing and installation companies to make layoffs and leave the state.
May 12, 2017: American Crystal and its union negotiating again.

Original Post

This is the article that started all this, what is now know as the "Solar FREAKIN' Roadways" -- data points:
  • Idaho
  • Solar FREAKIN' Roadways project
  • solar panels along this road 
  • project cost: $4.3 million
  • under development: 6.5 years
  • energy production: 0.26 kWh (March 29, 2017) -- less than a single plasma television consumes
  • energy production: 1.06 kWh (March 31, 2017) -- barely enough to power a single microwave oven
  • energy production, on average: 0.62 kWh; an average blow drier consumers about 1kWh per day
  • blame: design flaw in the solar panels
  • in fact: with a perfect design, the Solar Freakin' Roadway project would have produced enough energy to power a single water fountain and the lights in a nearby restroom 
  • bottom line: $4.3 million in funding to generate 90 cents worth of electricity
But that's not the reason this project meets the criteria to be on the EDI list. This is the reason.
Despite $4.3 million being spent so far for 90 cents of electricity, the project broke down in March and Idaho has decided to go ahead, to make repairs. The cost of those repairs were not reported.

It was reported that in the process of making repairs, the roadway's electrical box caught fire prompting emergency response by firefighters.
Einstein's definition of insanity: doing something over and over expecting to get a different result. 

Is this a true story or an April Fool's joke? It's true: here's the website, and it really is called the Solar FREAKIN' Roadways project. I can't make this stuff up.

New USDOT contract: November, 2015.

The data from the linked DailyCaller site has not been independently verified by my EDI staff. For all we know, the numbers are even worse by now.

Camelot 2.0 -- April 5, 2017

Some quick bullets so I don't forget. I may or may not come back to this. Not ready for prime time.

To the best of my knowledge, "everyone" is beating a path to President Trump's a) White House; b) NYC penthouse; and/or c) the Florida White House.

President Trump is not visiting those countries (yet, but he will). He is not continuing the "apology tour."

More importantly, a reader noted that so far President Trump has not "bowed" to any visitor.

Yesterday: Prime Minister of Egypt: no bowing; no apologies.

Today: King and Queen of Jordan: no bowing, no apologies anticipated.

But most interesting: Melania was there to welcome the Queen of Jordan this morning. Wow. Awesome. Camelot.

It's very interesting to note the different styles of first ladies, comparing (not in order): Jackie, Laura, Hillary, Nancy, Michelle, Melania. Some are in the news as much as POTUS; others channel Queen Elizabeth of England -- rare sightings, but carefully selected.

"Holy Nightmare, Batman, What Do We Do Now?" -- April 5, 2017


April 29, 2017: I'll post the March data when that's released but over at twitter someone says Suadi Arabia's foreign reserves were down another $5.4 billion in March to $508.6 billion (lowest since mid-2011). The monthly range seems to be $3 billion on the low side to as much as $14 billion on the high side. I would say that anything above $5 billion / month is more than noteworthy.

Original Post

This was "last month's" graphic:

That drop from December, 2016, to January, 2017, was ... shocking?

And it's not getting any better.

First, via twitter today: the narrow Brent-Dubai spread makes Atlantic basin oil cheaper for Chinese buyers.

Second, the graphic: 

The x-axis had to be "adjusted" for the most recent data:


This graph takes us back to mid-2015:

Random Update Of A Few DUCs That Came Off Confidential List 2Q16 -- April 5, 2017

Disclaimer: in a long list like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

A few of the 2Q16 wells that were SI/NC (DUCs) that have now been completed and reported.

The IPs have been previously reported on the daily activity reports, but the completion data for most of these wells are being reported for the first time.

Also note that Statoil reported a well that has been completed. This is the first completed (DUC) Statoil well I have come across in quite some time, although I may have missed some.
  • 31849, SI/NC, MRO, Ronald 34-33TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, produced 29K first 24 days while still on SI/NC status (checked April 5, 2017)
  • 31540, 304, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-2, Capa, 35 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t5/16; cum 46K 2/17; 
  • 31172, 1,763, WPX, Peterson 6-5-4 HQ, Van Hook, 61 stages; no proppant data posted, t10/16; cum 97K 2/17;
  • 30281, 3,487, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, 26 stages; 5.2 million lbs, t9/16; cum 86K 2/17;
  • 31330, 527, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 7B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs; t6/16; cum 161K 2/17;  
  • 31331, 648, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 8T2, Siverston, Three Forks Second Bench, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t6/16; cum 122K 2/17;  
  • 30835, 408, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36H, Bear Creek, Three Forks, 49 stages, 11 million lbs, t10/16; cum --  
  • 30282, 2,806, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH, North Fork, 4 sections, 27 stages, 5 million lbs, t9/16; cum 71K 2/17;   
  • 25202, 1,536, BR, Jerome 21-15TFH 3SH, North Fork, Three Forks, 4 sections, 22 stages; 10 million lbs, t9/16; cum 79K 2/17; 
  • 32392, 598, Statoil, Jack 21-16 5TFH-R, East Fork, Three Forks, 49 stages; 5.9 million lbs, t12/16; cum --  
  • 25201, 3,360, BR, Merton 21-15TFH 3NH, North Fork, 4 sections, Three Forks, 27 stages, 12 million lbs, t8/16; cum 114K 2/17
  • 31072, 1,582, Enerplus Resources, Tackle 149-95-36C-25H TF, Eagle Nest, t10/19; cum 109K 2/17;
  • 31933, 1,155, Hess, HA-Grimestad-LW-152-95-3031H-1, Clear Creek, 4 sections, Three Forks, 50 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t7/16; cum 129K 2/17; 
  • 25200, 1,776, BR, Jerome 21-15MBH 2SH, North Fork, 4 sections, 24 stages, 4.7 million lbs, t8/16; cum 95K 2/17;

US Natural Gas Shale Revolution -- Truly A Revolution -- Bloomberg -- April 5, 2017


Later, 11:42 a.m. Central Time: this story reminds me of the shoddy reporting The New Times did on the natural gas revolution some years ago. I see that with very biased googling ["New York Times natural gas" shoddy reporting] this blog is the #1 and the #2 hit. LOL. By removing the quotation marks, this blog still makes the first page of hits out of 698,000 "results." The really neat thing is the dating of the posts and the stories.

The NY Times, one might recall, was also incredibly negative about the expanded Panama Canal. With regard to the Panama Canal story, it appears The New York Times is trying hard to gild the lily (with little success, so far) -- the most recent update was July 31, 2016, and in the big scheme of things a pretty good example of a lot of writing with not much of a bottom line.

Later, 10:35 a.m. Central Time: a reader notes:
I have been following developments in the Appalachian Basin for some time now, and I must say that this past 6 to 8 months have shown absolutely astonishing results.
Not only is the output from Marcellus and Utica targeted wells stunningly productive, the expansion of the Utica through north central Pennsylvania and northward in Ohio continues apace.
Furthermore, the output from several dozens shallower Upper Devonian wells is approaching near-Marcellus like characteristics, i.e., highly productive.
There will be a century's worth of natgas emanating from that area.
Several big pipelines are only a few months away from completion and the boost in output should be remarkably large.
Original Post

Gas giants share OPEC's shale pain as US supply flows east -- Bloomberg
OPEC isn’t the only decades-old energy hegemony being turned on its head by U.S. shale.
Liquefied natural gas sellers from Qatar to Malaysia that dominated gas sales to Asia for years are facing the prospect of rising American exports. While less than 30 U.S. cargoes have landed in Asia, their effect was felt even before they arrived. LNG trade in 2016 jumped the most in five years, contract lengths were sliced in half in the past decade, and spot prices slumped more than 60 percent in the past three years.
That means the global LNG titans gathering in Tokyo this week for Gastech are in the midst of the biggest shakeup since the industry was founded in the 1960s. Just as American crude is increasingly making its way to Asia, the world’s biggest oil market, the burgeoning armada of gas cargoes from the U.S. and elsewhere are poking holes in the financial system on which the industry’s multi-billion plants are funded.

The Energy And Market Page, T+74 -- April 5, 2017

Via twitter: the narrow Brent-Dubai spread makes Atlantic basin oil cheaper for Chinese buyers. 

Gasoline demand: flat, week-over-week. Close to surpassing last year's demand. 

Crude oil stores: up 1.53 million bbls. Probably in-line with what most expected. Oil was up a bit higher earlier this morning but remains positive even after the "number" was released. [I was wrong; the build was unexpected, at least according to Reuters.
Analysts had expected a decrease of 435,000 barrels, and the build reported by the Energy Information Administration came as a double surprise after trade group the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.8 million-barrel draw late on Tuesday.
I must be missing something. Everything I've read suggested the building would continue.]

Active rigs:

Active Rigs492994192187

RBN Energy: US exploration and production companies budget strong rebound in 2017.
The Diversified E&P peer group has indicated an average 30% increase over 2016 to $19.7 billion, the lowest among the three groups. That average, however, is depressed by a small decrease in investment by ConocoPhillips, the largest E&P in the group.
Excluding ConocoPhillips, the group is forecasting a 48% boost in investment, nearly identical to the plans of the oil-weighted peers.
However, like the large oil-weighted E&Ps with international assets, ConocoPhillips is reallocating capital investment to its Lower 48 plays (Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian) as it completes large projects, boosting U.S. resource investment in 2017 by about 50% to ~$1.5 billion. Despite the uplift in capital investment, the Diversified E&P peer group’s spending is still 63% below 2014.
The largest allocation of capital outlays (28%) from the peer group will also target the Permian, with 11% in the DJ Basin and in overseas assets and 10% in the SCOOP/STACK. W&T Offshore, Bill Barrett Corp. and WPX Energy are all expected to double capital spending in 2017. Total production is expected to fall 5% this year, though, heavily influenced by asset sales from several companies. WPX Energy is expecting to post the largest gain in production at 28%.
Scott Adams: why I post links to his site regularly

Jobs: Boom! The Political Page, T+74 -- April 5, 2017

Bias: I did not know this until today, but it explains a lot. Jeff Bezos is part owner of Business Insider

Jobs: boom. T+74 days.

Expectations: 185,000

Actual: 263,000

Only off by: 42%

February revised: down 53,000 to 245,000.

  • The Drudge Report: huge banner with unemployment number
  • Yahoo!Finance: not up at first; haven't checked again; I assume it's up by now [I was wrong; incredibly, at 8:59 a.m. Central Time -- 90 minutes after story broke -- Yahoo!Finance  has not posted the story
  • Google Finance: small story buried several stories downs
  • LA Times: just checked on-line front page -- overloaded with anti-Trump stories; not one headline story on the jobs number
  • Fox News: not one of the top banner stories (which really surprised me; Fox must really be fair and balanced -- LOL
Bad timing: as soon as the incredibly good jobs number was announced, Yahoo!Finance pulled this story: Donald Trump still doesn't understand the unemployment rate. Anyone following Yahoo!Finance knows the site leaves up stories longer than the Drudge Report. Headline stories over at Yahoo!Finance can be up for weeks at a time. The linked story went up in the last couple of days; it was still there early this morning and based on the subject matter should have been left up for another week or so. But lo and behold, as soon as the ADP jobs number was reported today, that story was pulled. Pretty incredible. [Update: one day later, after the jobs report was "old news" the Yahoo!Finance story was re-posted. -- posted April 6, 2017.]

By the way, anyone who thinks Trump doesn't understand "the unemployment rate" is an idiot to begin with -- especially with that headline -- there must be at least six unemployment rates, U1 - U6, and I doubt one out of 100 senators can explain all six. This might help (LOL):

If not, this might help (LOL):

But my favorite:

Jobs, T+74 -- April 5, 2017

Boom: 9:30 a.m. opening: market up 60 points.

Jobs: boom.

Bad timing: as soon as the incredibly good jobs number was announced, Yahoo!Finance pulled this story: Donald Trump still doesn't understand the unemployment rate.