Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Notes From All Over -- September 14, 2021

A graphic is worth a thousand tweets, link here.


From July 7, 2021:

A star is born: the recall effort to remove Governor Newsom from office will backfire. He will become a national celebrity and run for federal office. 

And we move on.

Covid-19, from mcm-ct (raise your hand if you accept this):

Flu cases in USA:
  • 2012 - 34 million
  • 2013 - 30 million
  • 2014 - 30 million
  • 2015 - 24 million
  • 2016 - 29 million
  • 2017 - 45 million
  • 2018 - 36 million
  • 2019 - 38 million
  • 2020 - 1,822 cases -- that's not a typo

Covid-19, reporting:

One wonders to what extent reporting makes a difference.

Cases: The US is testing folks over and over and over (ask the athletes). I doubt the (sub-continent) Indians are testing anywhere near to the degree that we are testing. The same probably holds true for Israel.
An aside: my incredibly healthy adult daughter, a Ph.D. nurse, has been fully vaccinated; was exposed to laboratory-proved Covid in her home (her husband had a relatively severe disease not requiring hospitalization); and, although most of her practice is still on line, she says she will gladly be tested weekly if her employee wants her tested weekly. She will be tested today (again).
Deaths: The US health care sector has great (Medicare) financial incentive to report deaths related to / due to / associated with Covid -- and a lot of those diagnoses were clinically-diagnosed by attending physician and not confirmed by any laboratory test.

We have at least three arenas in which Covid is being followed:
  • the political arena;
  • the business community; and,
  • the entertainment community (to include sports).
Public schools? I consider public education part of the political arena. 
It is obvious that the business community and the entertainment community have moved on.

Of the two (business and entertainment), business is most important. Sports makes my weekends less boring but I learned to live without sports during the plague year.

The concern about delta is a wonderful thing for the economy. It slowed things down from getting out of control (inflation, growth, etc). The bull market will be pulled along an additional year because of delta. I'm not complaining.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs24*12646555

Twenty-four active oil & gas rigs, per the NDIC daily activity report.

One new permit, #38558 --

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Ellisville (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has a permit for a Maddie section line well to be sited in NENE 9-158-99; 
    • 375 FNL and 429 FEL

Twelve permits renewed:

  • MRO (7): MRO renewed seven permits for wells in section 33-152-93: Betty Lou USA; Laverne USA; Duane USA; Lillian USA; Dawson USA; Gladheim USA; and, Olive USA; Mountrail County:
  • Nine Point Energy (3): three Sanders permits in McKenzie County
  • XTO: one Carus State Federal permit in Dunn County
  • BR: one Saddle Jerome permit in Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38175, 758, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-32-29H,
  • 38088, 768, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 3-32-29H, 
  • a couple of older Iron Oil Operating wells of interest in the immediate vicinity of these DUCs; both showing subtle "halo effect," one greater than the there: #26708 and #26707;

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 14, 2021

Hundred-dollar oil: Europe is now substituting crude oil for natural gas -- pricing now at $133 / boe equivalent (sic) TTF gas price. [TTF: Netherlands::WTI:Cushing]. Is anyone paying attention? Europe is now pulling oil out of storage to meet electricity demands. Look at graph. Bloomberg calling for $100-oil.

Hurricane Nicholas: sources suggest half of Texas without power. Link here. But oil unchanged because Nicholas had minimal effects on GoM crude oil supplies. Colonial Pipeline was shut down for a few hours today due to power outages; back up and running now.

Historic: China -- will stop hoarding oil. Say what? Link here to Haley Zaremba.

For a long time, China’s energy policy has centered around one primary and pressing goal: to establish energy security. As the biggest importer and second-biggest consumer of oil in the world, China is extremely dependent on international markets to keep the lights on and the gears of industry turning. In 2019, a whopping 72% of all crude oil consumed in China was imported. This is a dynamic that makes Beijing uncomfortable, to say the least, and President Xi Jinping’s administration has been hard at work trying to shore up a greater degree of energy independence.

That’s why it came as such a surprise this week when China made a historic decision to sell off some of the oil it has been stockpiling in a strategic reserve for years now. “The heavy dependence on foreign supply has spurred Beijing to focus on ways it can prevent energy shortages,” CNN Business reported back in April 2020. “In addition to requiring state-owned oil companies to increase production, the country has spent years working to increase the amount of oil it keeps in reserve.” Beijing is secretive about just how much oil they have stockpiled, but the nation had been planning to catch up to the world’s largest backup oil cache -- the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which boasts an authorized storage capacity of 714 million barrels. 

Amy R Sisk: I wonder if Ms Sisk would ever consider holding the "Bakken Desk" for oilprice.com? I remember when Hunter S Thompson held the "Vietnam Desk" for Rolling Stone and reporting / interest improved / increased 10-fold. Or more.

API weekly:

  • US crude: down 5.4 million bbls
  • Cushing: down 1.3 million bbls
  • gasoline: down 2.8 million bbls
  • distillate: down 2.9 million bbls

Global Oil Supply -- September 14, 2021

Hurricane Ida: GoM crude oil losses stand at 30 million bbls. But that pales in comparison to what Resident Biden has cost us.

I don't know what others think, but this seems .... well, unnerving.... with the economy opening up ... link here:


  • OPEC: disciplined?
  • Russia: already at maximum production?
  • Mexico: confused?
  • Venezuela: rock bottom?
  • China: booming?
  • US: Resident Biden doing what he can to hold back US oil production!

WTI today: pretty much unchanged at $70.47

A Monster Well Updated -- September 14, 2022

Monster wells are tracked here

This monster well updated:

  • 655, 20, Cobra/Enduro Operating, Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit Q-711, t1/58; cum 822K 4/19;

Just Another Day In The Bakken -- What A Great Surprise For Some Mineral Rights Owner -- September 14, 2021

The well:

  • 25857, 4,545, Equinor, Skarston 1 -12 4H, 41 stages; 6 million lbs: 9/17/14; 12/08/14; t4/16; cum 385K 4/19; sporadic production lately suggesting activity, 3/19; cum 442K 7/21; full production profile here

Skarston wells that had recently been off-line are now back on line. Most, if not all, of the Skarston wells came off line in 2020; as of 9/20, all were back on line.

Recent production. Note the jump from 1,000 bbls/month to over 9,000 bbls/month.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

All Apple -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 14, 2021

Not ready for prime time, but here goes.

Apple events: have turned into two hours of pre-programmed commercials. Absolutely uninteresting. AAPL off seventy-seven cents during the Apple Event. Apple could inspire another "drinking game." One shot of scotch every time the word "nanometer" is used. AAPL now off $1.20 / share. Well below the $150 support level. Trending back toward "my" buy point: $145. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

The Apple Event: is over. Let's see what Macrumors has to say:

  • surprise, surprise: introduced new versions of the iPad mini and the low-cost iPad, something as a surprise; not expected until later in the year; just in time for the holidays;
  • iPad 9: same price -- $329 -- a must buy for my wife, thank you very much! At $329, without question, an incredible bargain;
  • iPad mini 6: $499: newer features, but too small for what we use the iPad
  • crazy: Apple Watch Series 7 large enough for full on-screen keyboard; not sure why that's needed when we have Siri, voice recognition;
  • wow! iPhone 13 with storage up to 1TB, pricing tops out at record $1,599; AOC and others will be able to afford the $1,599 -- take delivery in a sales-tax-free state like Montana!
  • still available: iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 11, and iPhone SE; now that's a pleasant surprise! It means Apple will still support the iPhone SE for a few more years;
  • great news for carriers: who subsidize these phones; the iPhone 13 at $699
  • the iPhone SE at $399; that's an incredible starter phone for Sophia!

Bottom line:

  • iPhones available by the end of the month! That tells me Apple had a lot of clout when it came to chip shortages;
  • incredible that one can get an iPad for $329 (no increase in price) -- what about that inflation?
  • incredible that one can get an entry level iPhone for $399 -- most of which will be subsidized by carrier;
  • the meme that Apple is an expensive option -- a lot of wind taken out of that sail

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. I am Fanboy #3.

Paddle Boarding

Grapevine Lake, September 12, 2021, inflatable paddle board.

Apple Presentation Today -- Tuesday, Septermber 14, 2021

European energy story: unrestrained. And winter is yet to come. Groningen is closing. Russia unlikely to meet German demand. Where does the UK get its natural gas? At the link:

I don't want to alarm anyone, but European gas prices are up this morning >7% to a new all-time high, bringing their increase since August 1, 2021, to about 60%. The rally does not show any sign of slowing. Gas inventories are seasonally very, very low. And winter is coming.

Apple, Inc.: presentation today.

Covid-19: vaccinations for the record, have trended down for the past three weeks; the goal post cross-bar is one million vaccinations on average per day. Did the mandate set back the vaccine rollout? Average:

  • Monday, September 13, 2021, average number of immunizations given over past seven days: 772,190
  • Biden announces vaccine mandate
  • Monday, September 6, 2021, average number of immunizations given over previous seven days: 838,498
  • Monday, August 30, 2021, average number of immunizations given over previous seven days: 898,446

Stadiums as super-spreader events:

  • the last pre-season NFL football game was two weeks ago or so, and two weeks being the usual period of quarantine, I have not read one story yet of any evidence of those filled stadiums as being super-spreader events.
    • the opener: September 9, 2021, last Thursday, Dallas traveled to Tampa, FL, where the stadium was jam-packed;
  • meanwhile, the college football stadiums have been jam-packed for the past two weekends; still no stories of "super-spreader events" and, except for one non-story, an outlier, there have been no reports of colleges going into mass lock down
    • if I recall correctly, the outlier was a small private college in Connecticut, but I could be wrong;
  • remember, the original fifteen-day lock down was to flatten the curve and allow the healthcare sector to get prepared;
  • it appears, cynical me, the colleges and professional sports have decided that the health care sector has had a year to prepare; it's their (hospitals) problem, not colleges or professional sport;
  • cynical me; trolling; ignore, rinse, repeat;
  • the best news: I haven't seen Fauci on any of the networks I watch; in fact, I haven't even seen Dr Gottlieb. 

Market spikes:

  • CPI comes in lower than anticipated
  • excluding food and energy, CPI up only 0.1%
  • used car prices actually dropped
  • it will be interesting to see if Jim Cramer changes his narrative based on these new numbers;

The numbers:

  • CPI: released today; up 0.3% vs expectations of 0.4% (and whisper numbers probably much worse
  • in response, market futures spiked
  • DXY: 92.46, down slightly;
  • WTI: $71.00, up 0.78%;
  • natural gas, Henry Hub: $5.341; up 2.10%;
  • TYT: 1.341%; up slightly;
  • Market, futures
  • Dow: up 120 points
  • S&P 500: up 15 points
  • NASDAQ: up 59 points

ARKK, Cathie Wood: had interesting comments on CPI the day before these numbers came out; she's not worried. Reminder: jobs commentary, September 8, 2021. I could be wrong, the job shortages seem to be in industries where it's almost least important, as a macro-economic issue. The lead story on joblessness today was the shortage of school bus drivers. Okay. Self-driving, autonomous buses would take care of that problem. LOL. Parents would act as chaperones/monitors if they want their child to ride the bus.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs*: update every afternoon, COB, non-holiday weekdays -- 

Active Rigs25*12646555

No wells coming off confidential list according to NDIC.

RBN Energy: the gathering pipes that will supply the Coastal GasLink pipeline.

It will still be a few years until Canada joins the ranks of nations exporting natural gas in the form of LNG
Until then, a great deal of work has to be completed on both the LNG Canada liquefaction and export facility in Kitimat, BC, and the primary gas pipeline linked to it: the Coastal GasLink. 
Unlike most LNG export sites in the U.S., which can receive feedgas from multiple production basins via an array of major trunklines, the LNG Canada plant will be relying on gas supplies from primarily one basin: the Montney in Western Canada. And all that feedgas will be transported across British Columbia through one mammoth pipeline. In today’s blog, we take a closer look at the small number of pipelines that will supply gas from the Montney to Coastal GasLink for eventual delivery to LNG Canada.