So, Got Coal? How's That Solar Working Out, Abe? -- July 20, 2017

Updates

February 11, 2018: the biggest risk to coral reefs and Hawaii's tourism is not acid rain or global warming -- it's the cesspools of Hawaii.

Sewage from cesspools is seeping into some of Hawaii’s ocean waters, where it has been blamed for infections suffered by surfers and snorkelers. It is also entering the drinking water in part of the state, pushing nitrate levels close to the legal limit.

Hawaii has 88,000 cesspools across its eight major islands, more than any other state. Collectively, they deposit 53 million gallons of raw sewage into the ground every day.

More than 90% of the state’s drinking water comes from groundwater wells.

State lawmakers, who outlawed new cesspools in 2016, are scrambling to find a solution to the thousands that exist.

Replacing all of the state’s cesspools with alternate sewage systems would cost at least $1.75 billion, according to the health department.

Original Post 

From joannenova.com: fifty solar PV companies in Japan are already gone in 2017 as subsidies end. Coal is soaring. Actually, the story is even worse than the headline:

One hundred solar PV companies are forecast to collapse in Japan this year alone.

Up to 100 solar PV firms in Japan could face bankruptcy this year, with more than double the number of firms going bust in the first half of this year than the same period in 2016.

According to corporate credit research company Teikoku Databank, which surveys companies across various industries and has produced its third report on solar PV company bankruptcies, 50 companies in Japan’s solar sector have already gone out of business in the first six months of 2017.

While the market overall has rapidly expanded from the launch of the feed-in tariff (FiT) in July 2012, Teikoku Databank acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in deployment in the past couple of years as the government successively made cuts of 10% or more on an annual basis to the premium prices paid for solar energy fed into the grid.

This comes just days after another "green blog" noted that solar was  dying in Hawaii, also. This is the problem:

• solar needs huge subsidies to compete with coal
• subsidies cost governments money
• coal / natural gas utilities make profits without resorting to subsidies
• governments tax profits
• this is not rocket science

Even Jerry Brown's successor will figure this out.

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Speaking of Japanese Coal

Japan plans to build at least 45 new coal plants. From joannenova (same link as above):

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You Only Live Twice

You Only Live Twice, Nancy Sinatra

The Road To Hawaii -- July 17, 2017

When I was growing up in Williston in the 1960s, it was my perception (right, wrong, indifferent) that "aluminum siding" was the newest fad. I don't know how that all worked out but it sure seemed like there was a lot of hype about aluminum siding at the time.

I say all that because it reminds me of the residential-solar-roof industry today. Take a look at Hawaii. From greentechmedia.com:

For anyone in sales, there are two existential questions that need to be posed and answered: What's the market for what you're peddling, and how much market share can you expect to capture?

As the once-thriving rooftop solar industry in Hawaii painfully contracts, businesses like mine and others are being forced to seriously ponder those two questions.

In a state where there's by far more installed solar capacity per home and business than any other place in the nation, and still a high dependency on imported fossil fuels, how can it be that our solar coaster is slowing to a crippling crawl?

In a state that's pledged itself to 100 percent renewable in power generation by 2045, the first in the country to make such a commitment, how can it be that the bottom is dropping out of the rooftop solar market?

There is strong consensus among Hawaii energy stakeholders that bringing considerably more rooftop solar PV on-line is a good thing and a high priority. But with this year on pace to see the lowest numbers since 2010, we in the industry are wondering whether what we're experiencing now is the new normal, as major players disappear completely or see their PV sales revenues drop by as much as 80 to 90 percent.

Wow, if residential rooftop solar energy can't make it in Hawaii where utility costs are very, very high and there is an immense amount of sunshine year around, how will the rest of the world make out with solar energy?

Years ago, I posted an article about the fact that rooftop solar energy never pays for itself, or if it does, it takes up to 20 years, or something to that effect. There's a huge up-front cost of installing solar panels and one still has monthly utility bills. My hunch is that many homeowners who were early adopters are telling their neighbors that if they had to do it all over again, they would not install rooftop solar panels. 

Batteries are getting better, but they add significantly to the cost of solar energy. And like any battery, I assume they degrade over time, needing replacement.

Blue Hawaii, Elvis Presley