Thursday Morning -- The First Day Of The Last Quarter This Year -- October 1, 2026

Locator: 51844B.

Story of the day: Corning. 

• the cover story on Forbes today -- link here; and,
• covered several times on CNBC yesterday. 

Saturn: optimum time of the year to view Saturn -- link here. 

Overnight headlines:

• Hegseth's major policy speech: link here. 
• Thiel buys $130 million storied property in Los Angeles: link here. 
• Note: Thiel and family have not formally "left" the US. Their relocation to Argentina is a temporary relocation due to current events in California.
• the strait is back! Saudi crude through the strait climbed from around 850,000 bopd in late August to 6.7 million bopd last week
• China increasing oil purchases
• LNG Canada Phase 2: FID; 
• would double capacity to 28 mtpa as Shell sees global demand nearing 700 mtpa by 2050 -- almost double current demand
• current demand: 400 mtpa 
• Trump unveils $200 billion South Korean investment in US; Texas, big winner; and, Alaska; 
• previously announced; not new; a political speech leading up to midterms
• perhaps most interesting: California joins growing plug-in solar boom as power costs surge. 
• the state is the 10th state to allow so-called balcony solar as officials grapple with soaring electricity bills -- Bloomberg
• balcony solar: compact plug-and-play, 1 to 3 lightweight solar panels that attach to balcony railing, with a standard 120-volt wall outlet
• all this tells me: Californians panicking 
•  DOD to select state for new, massive military base -- Hegseth
• plan for 25,000 troops
• currently: 
• Ft Hood: 36,000 to 40,000 active-due soldiers
• renamed Fort Cavazos in 2023, then reverted back to Fort Hood 
• Ft Bragg: largest US Army post -- 250,000 total population with 50,000+ active-duty
• geographically largest
• White Sands Missile Range: largest Army-owned installation
• Fort Bliss (Texas/New Mexico): largest active-duty sprawling maneuver post 
• DeepSeek: failing as investment vehicle (Chinese LLM) --  link here.
• no matter how bad your portfolio is, it can't possible be this bad. 

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken East Pipeline: link here.

• it seems like this took forever; I had forgotten about it
• MDU's WBI Energy reaches positive final investment decision (FID)
• Bakken area to Fargo area (all intrastate, North Dakota) 

WTI: $90.41.

New wells reporting: 

• Friday, October 2, 2026: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 503 for the year, 
• 42193, conf, Whiting, Link 5001 11-18 2BHP,
• 42150, conf, Whiting, Toonie 5001 11-18 3B,
• 42149, conf, Whiting, Toonie 5001 11-18 2BX, 
• 41924, conf, Hess, GO-Lemire-157-97-3613H-4,
• Thursday, October 1, 2026: 0 for the month, 0 for the quarter, 499 for the year,  
• None. 

RBN Energy: FIDs on LNG Canada Phase 2, Coastal GasLink Expansion to Boost Montney Production. Link here. Archived.

The big news this week may have been the final investment decision (FID) on LNG Canada’s Phase 2, but that announcement — spurred in part by recent changes in Canadian tax policy — will have even larger upstream impacts. For one thing, TC Energy will now move ahead with its plan to nearly double the capacity of the massive Coastal GasLink pipeline, which serves LNG Canada. Also, producers in northeastern British Columbia’s Montney Formation can now make firmer plans to significantly ramp up drilling-and-completion activity, an expansion that will have positive effects on condensate production for use in the Alberta oil sands. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why the newly sanctioned LNG Canada expansion signals a “beautiful day” for a wide range of Western Canadian market players.

As you all know by now, the consortium that co-owns the existing LNG Canada Phase 1 — Shell (the operator, with a 40% stake), Petronas (25%, with one-fifth of that implicitly held by MidOcean Energy), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (15%), Mitsubishi Corp. (15%) and Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS, 5%) — has now reached FID on Phase 2. In the team’s September 28 announcement, they said that, like Phase 1 (orange diamond in Figure 1 below), the Phase 2 expansion at Kitimat, BC, will consist of two liquefaction trains and boast a capacity of 14 MMtpa, or about 1.8 Bcf/d. Phase 2 (checkered orange-and-white diamond), which is expected to come online in 2031-32, also will include an additional LNG storage tank, condensate tank and loading berth, as well as expanded utility and process systems.

Micron: 4Q26 -- Quarter Ending August, 2026 -- Posted September 30, 2026

Locator: 51843MICRON.

Market action certainly suggests "things just below the surface" don't look anywhere as good as they seem in tech. Check out Mattel today, the outgoing CEO, and where he's headed. Seriously, did Ynon Kreiz do anything at Mattel. I seriously don't know but the eight-year chart looks awful. Trading near $50 in 2013, Mattel's share price has fallen steadily, and is now barely above $11. The overall economy, for investors, has a lot of red flags - at the end of the day, Micron had an incredible report but it was not a bit reassuring. "Everything," it appears, had already been baked into the earnings call and the market's reaction to the earnings call.  

Has memory become the new oil? IYKYK. I don't know. Micron, 4Q26, ending August, 2026: 

What does Micron make and who uses what chips? Link here. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/PM5VeiIkCjuF4p1NH.

Cash on hand and operating cash flow: absolutely insane (rounded) --

• cash on hand: $75 billion; 
• operating cash flow: $45 billion;
• means nothing to me unless I compare it to BRK for example
• Ford Company's market cap: $50 billion.
• cash on hand: $30 billion;
• operating cash flow on a quarterly basis: <$5 billion 

Daily Activity Report -- September 10, 2026

Locator: 51842B.

Has memory become the new oil? IYKYK. I don't know. Micron:

 

Say what? Link here. If it's Charles Kennedy, it has to be important. 

The latest survey shows both oil and gas production increased again in the third quarter across Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana, meaning producers have now reported rising output for two consecutive quarters. The region includes the Permian Basin, the country’s largest oil-producing basin, as well as the Eagle Ford and Haynesville.

The spending outlook was much weaker beyond the current increase. The index measuring expected capital expenditures for the following year was zero in the second quarter, even as current spending climbed.

U.S. inventories are adding another complication, with commercial crude stocks increasing by 900,000 barrels last week to 427.3 million barrels, according to EIA data released Wednesday. Distillate inventories moved in the opposite direction, falling 2.3 million barrels and leaving stocks 14% below their five-year average for this time of year.

Strait of Hormuz: according to Rigzone, "Middle East oil flows are nearing pre-war levels as shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes rebound." 

*******************************
More From The Bakken 

WTI: $90.41.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #43354 - #43358, inclusive --

• Operator: Phoenix Operating
• Field: Alkabo oil field, Divide County;
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has permits for four Top Gun wells and one Rooster well, NWNE 31-162-102, 
• to be sited 564 FNL and 1897 / 2017 FEL.

Approved for re-entry:

• 41258, Marlo Operating, Tosco Branch 2, NENE 19-129-103, Bowman County.

Re-entry permit canceled:

• 41700, Marlo Operating, Tosco Branch 4, NENE 19-129-103, Bowman County. 

Five permits renewed:

• KODA Resources: three Bock and two Kolsh permis, all in Divide County.

American Airlines -- New Loyalty Perk -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51841TRAVEL.

Generally speaking, one's gate / terminal will change at least twice while waiting for your departure flight at DFW, Texas. 

Currently there are five passenger terminals at DFW, but starting in 2027, that will increase to six passenger terminals, increasing the tour by 20% over the current tour. Each terminal has something different to offer: one has a hotel; one has the USO center for traveling military members; one has a motocross track for off-roading vehicles, etc.

I've been informed that the motocross track for off-roading vehicles does not exist at DFW. Sorry. My bad.

Ken Griffin Donation To Carnegie Mellon -- Part 2 -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51840PHILANTHROPY.

PART 2: Now, more story lines.

There are so many story lines here. 

• University / college / education changes.
• less than two weeks ago, I had a very long discussion with Gemini about changing demands being placed on educational institutions: link. Or go to these links: if I decide to come back to this issue, it will be at this link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/uWoDs6msUKW5HiMRw.
•  there is a new term for this, and it was introduced during the CNBC interview with Sarah Eisen.
• Now, we have this from Gemini, link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/GSmyXgePvAAvcS91s.
• Instead of traditional departments and academic majors, CMU Miami will completely structure its research and studies around four core societal/grand challenge areas;
• human health and biological discover;
• national security and strategic capabilities (and economic competitiveness;
• energy and climate resilience; and,
• advanced manufacturing and industrial transformation. 
• Miami.
• Griffin's personal desire to make Miami, where he lives, a world-class city;
• he is genuinely really excited about this -- giving some with his name on it, unlike Bill Gates and Warren Buffett who give their money away and appear to lose control/interest, unlike how they invested. 
• Anti-semitism. 
• in the interview, Ken Griffin did not go there
• however, Sarah Eisen brought it up
• Griffin is a Harvard alumnus; he had give $500 million to Harvard until he paused contributions to Harvard after rampant anti-semantic sentiment surfaced
• hit a trifecta by this $3-billion donation to CMU 
• he could have given this to Harvard or split it among Miami, CMU (PA), Harvard but chose to completely "stiff" Harvard (maybe a bigger donation to Harvard is yet to come) 
• The "Situational Awareness" fund meltdown. 
• Griffin may or may not have felt some pushback from others stepping in like a vulture
• using much of that windfall as a record donation would have blunted much of that pushback 
• In an earlier interview, Sarah Eisen said this was the biggest such donation; then she said the second was Bloomberg's donation of just under $1 billion to another institutional institutional 
• that is incorrect; the second was Phil Knight's donation to University of Oregon ($2 billion) to his alma mater. Previously noted on the blog.

PART 1: This was post earlier. 

Remember the story of the largest known donation ever to an American university: Nike founder to University of Oregon? Just a few days ago. It's on the blog somewhere.

Now we have a tie: Ken Griffin's $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellow (but he divides that total donation among two different campuses).

Ken Griffin Carnegie Mellon: $2 billion -- a CNBC report this morning:

• $1 billion for the main campus (computer science and university priorities)
• $2 billion for the new Miami campus (new)

Carnegie Mellon University -- 

Carnegie Mellon University's main campus is located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and a new Miami campus is planned for the Wynwood neighborhood backed by a historic $3 billion gift from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin.

Folks may remember this recent Citadel story:

Not hearing a peep out of Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.

Early Morning Trading -- Last Day Of The Third Quarter -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51843INVESTING.

CNBC "Halftime Report": with announcement of new fighter ...

• argument again, fighters vs drones (when folks get into this argument, it sounds like the analysts missed the memo with regard to Iran. 

Early morning headlines:

• holy mackerel: the UK says the incident at RAF Fairford was likely led by Iran. 
• holy mackerel: it looks like it was very fortunate that a plane full of Israeli citizens saved their flight from a co-pilot tried to kill/disable the pilot and crash the plane; and,
• an LNG tanker hit by "device"; for some reason this one caught the headlines -- headline came out just as allies were saying they (again) had control of the strait.
• WTI? Up for 2% after these reports.

Early morning trading:

 

The US Equity Market Is Surging After Final Read Of 2Q26 Inflation Data (PCE) -- Robinhood -- Company In The News Today -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51842INVESTING.

Becky Quick: Ms Quick had a huge "run" with BRK over the past twenty years. The tea leaves suggest she is looking for her next gravy train. It looks like it will be SI/AI but she will end up focusing on one company.

Quincy, Washington: folks may want to do a deep dive on Quincy -- Quincy, Washington transformed from a struggling agricultural farming town into a major digital data center hub starting in 2006, when Microsoft broke ground on its first major data center. 

Company in the news today: Robinhood. 24-hour agentic trading over the weekend; app specifically "built" for new iPhone Duo (the Duo not yet released). "Full" US equity trading, 24-7, inaugurated by Robinhood. Did Schwab miss an opportunity?

• 24/7 trading under the "auspices" of "Bruce Markets." 

Trump's SI/AI summit: that group photo is amazing -- Jensen Huang on his immediate right; Elon Musk on his immedate left; and AMD/CEO immediately behind President Trump. And every SI/AI CEO at the table -- 

Trump pressing for:

• free electricity in all communities that have an LCD
• teacher bonuses in communities with an LCD

***************************
American Economy

Fed rate: may not hike in October, 2026. 90% likely in December. Heading for 7% mortgage rates. The SI/AI industry doesn't care. The housing industry is slowly being destroyed. 

JOBS: September ADP private payrolls -- up 90,000 jobs in September vs 68,000 anticipated. We just can't slow this economy. 

PG&E in California, SI/AI buildout:

The 1.8 GW of new data center load that PG&E plans to operationalize by 2030 (primarily serving Silicon Valley) is vastly overshadowed by the growth exploding across Texas, Virginia, and Ohio. 

While PG&E is intentionally pacing its growth and targeting smaller, high-confidence loads, other states are building gigawatt-scale, AI-driven mega-campuses.

For full discussion, see this link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/JMx8ntsnpqWxNAb8k.

As Some Would Say, Somthing Almost Happened -- "Everything's Fine, We've Apparently Landed In Saudi Arabia" -- Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Locator: 51841AVIATION.

Flight yesterday from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia. Just another day in the 'hood.'

This is not an SNL skit -- at least not yet. Link here.

Ken Griffin Donation To Carnegie Mellon -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51840PHILANTHROPY.

Remember the story of the largest known donation ever to an American university: Nike founder to University of Oregon? Just a few days ago. It's on the blog somewhere.

Now we have a tie: Ken Griffin's $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellow (but he divides that total donation among two different campuses).

Ken Griffin Carnegie Mellon: $2 billion -- a CNBC report this morning:

• $1 billion for the main campus (computer science and university priorities)
• $2 billion for the new Miami campus (new)

Carnegie Mellon University -- 

Carnegie Mellon University's main campus is located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and a new Miami campus is planned for the Wynwood neighborhood backed by a historic $3 billion gift from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin.

Folks may remember this recent Citadel story:

Not hearing a peep out of Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.

This Should Make Everyone Much Happier Except For The Services And A Few General / Flag Officers -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51839HEGSETH.
Locator: 51839MILITARY.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth will announce today -- September 30, 2026 --  a 20% cut to the positions reserved for generals and admirals, doubling the reduction he ordered last year. 

The cuts apply to slots, not the officers filling them now. According to sources, almost all slots are filled; very few exceptions.

Some jobs will be downgraded so that colonels and Navy captains can hold them, and the services have until January 1, 2027, to complete the work. Last year's order trimmed 10% of all generals and admirals and 20% of four-stars, which Hegseth summed up as "Less Generals, more GIs."

Before you all get excited:

The fact this is not being broadly reported in the US media speaks volumes.

Electricity Rates By State -- Just Posted -- All Sectors: North Dakota Lowest (?) -- Data For July 2026 -- Posted September 30, 2026

Locator: 51838ELECTRICITY.

Usual disclaimer applies: typographical errors and content errors likely. I go through the report quickly.  

By state. 

Link here. 

All sectors: only three states with a 9-handle: New Mexico, 9.52 cents; North Dakota, 9.09 cents; Louisiana, 9.74 cents.

• North Dakota: up from 8.56 a year ago
• New Mexico: down from 10.38 a year ago 
• Louisiana: look at this -- 9.74 vs 10.37 last year

Residential: only four states with a 13-handle, despite record-setting a/c use / hot summer -- North Dakota, Tennessee, Idaho, Kentucky. BUT, Louisiana with a 12-handle. 

• Louisiana: 12.72 vs 13.12 last year
• North Dakota: 13.41 vs 13.31 last year -- way well below inflation at 0.75% y/y -- less than 1% increase y/y
• Tennessee: 13.71 vs 13.21 last year
• Idaho: 13.72 vs 12.28 last year
• Nebraska: 13.78 vs 12.84 last year
• Kentucky: 13.81 vs 13.13 last year
• Missouri: jumps to 16.09 

Industrial: California with a 25-handle vs so many states well below 10 cents. NY state is at 10.81 vs 10.06 last year. Others of note:

• New Mexico: 4.18 vs 5.74 last year (very little industry; lots of coal?); obviously an oulier
• South Carolina: 7.84 vs 7.88 last year

The big LCD states, industrial:

• Virginia:  10.07 vs 9.70 last year
• Ohio: 10.95 vs 9.05
• Texas: 7.07 vs 6.61 last year

The big LCD states, residential:

• Virginia: 17.55 vs 15.78 last year
• Ohio: 19.45 vs 17.38 last year
• Texas: 15.85 vs 15.36 last year

The big LCD states, overall:

• Virginia: 13.49 vs 12.20 last year  
• Ohio: 15.09 vs 13.10 last year
• Texas: 10.91 vs 10.55 last year

The wind state: residential:

• Iowa:  15.99 vs 15.31 last year.

Greenland: Another Massive Win For The US -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51837GREENLAND.

This was a huge win-win for all parties involved: true extension of the Monroe Doctrine. Add this to the list of changes in the western Hemisphere under President Trump's two administrations.  

Another massive win for the US. 

 

The Rich Are Getting Richer -- The WSJ -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51836WEALTH.

The intergenerational wealth transfer has begun. See last statement below.

The rich have gotten richer since Covid-19 (surprise, surprise); some great graphs; the gap between the rich and the very, very rich is getting wider; link to The WSJ;  

The ultrawealthy aren’t just pulling away from average Americans. Buoyed by a stock-market boom that has added trillions of dollars to their net worth, the extremely rich are even pulling away from other rich Americans.

The top 0.1% wealthiest Americans have seen their total wealth more than double since the end of 2019, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. The year the pandemic started was when the ultrawealthy began to pull away from other rich groups, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Fed data.

In dollar terms, the very richest Americans have gained a total of $14.5 trillion in wealth over that period, with most of that—about $10 trillion—coming from gains in stocks and mutual funds, according to the Fed data, which runs through the end of June.

The 0.1% now control about $28 trillion, or about 15% of the nation’s total wealth, which amounts to nearly $186 trillion. The average wealth for a household in this group is more than $200 million.

As of 2022, the minimum for the top 0.1% was $45.8 million, according to the most detailed data available from the Fed. With wealth among the group up by roughly 50% since then, that threshold is much higher now.

The people who fall into this group aren’t usually traditional salaried workers. Rather, they are much more likely to be the owner of a bunch of car dealerships or an heir living off investment income.

Friday — September 30, 2026

Locator: 51835B.

WSJ headlines overnight: 

• Boeing has been awarded new US fighter contract
• $20+ billion US Navy contract
• to develop the F/A-XX sixth-generation carrier strike fighter 
• to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the EA-18G Growler beginning in the 2030s 
• how the Pentagon is escalating Trump's drug war in Latin America, link here;
• everything suggests the Allies have retaken the Strait, links in The WSJ and now everywhere;
• Larry Ellison / Oracle: has quietly bought eight homes in gated community in one neighborhood for his staff; exclusive in The WSJ;
• Iraq: US has officially left Iraq after 23 years in the country: some say Iran will now take Iraq; that's fine; Iran-Iraq will want oil to flow; link to The WSJ;
• the rich get richer (surprise, surprise); some great graphs; the gap between the rich and the very, very rich is getting wider; link to The WSJ; link to the blog.
• the intergenerational wealth transfer has begun. 

Other headlines:

• Robinhood / Apple partner: a new special Robinhood app built specifically for Apple's new foldable Duo phone. Hunch: left half for one's portfolio summary; right half for active trading. Hunch: soon all trading houses will built an app specifically for the Duo.
• analysts: building a dedicated app for the Duo is before it even drops is a bold bet on the hardware cycle. 
• Trump "child" accounts: automatically enrolling children should begin this month. 

Sports:

• the most baffling question: how in the world did the Dallas Cowboys lose
• with seconds to go, couldn't get winning TD with first and goal on the 2-yard line
• everyone's blaming the coach
• not me: it's Dak; we've talked about this before
• not one other NFL QB would have let this happen -- first and goal on the 2-yard line to win the game???!!! 
• link here. 
• it appears the writer does not understand how the NFL works when it comes to calling time outs. In this case, the time out was called when the runner hit the ground; that was relayed to the refs before the play even started; it's routine; the clock clearly shows the runner's knee hit the ground with time on the clock -- it's not close at all. It's how time outs work in the NFL. 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $89.87.

New wells reporting:  

• Wednesday, September 30, 2026: 62 for the month, 142 for the quarter, 499 for the year, 

• 42294, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 6H-LL, 
• 42293, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 1H-LL, 
• 41979, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 5H, 
• 41978, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 4H, 
• 41977, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 3H, 
• 41976, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 2H, 
• 42535, conf, Devon, Borshiem 33-28 4H, 
• 41534, conf, Devon, Borsheim 33-28 5H, 
• Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 54 for the month, 134 for the quarter, 491 for the year,
• 42395, conf, KODA Resources, Ale 2436-1BHN, 
• 42284, conf, Formentera, Fonda 23-02-BAL N518HF, 

RBN Energy: new pipelines boost Permian natural gas economics, but oil still drives activity. Link here. Archived.

The Permian has up to 11 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity scheduled to enter service through the end of 2029, with still more coming in the early 2030s. The central question is whether Permian crude oil production will generate enough associated gas to fill that capacity and, if so, how quickly. The short answer is there appears to be enough incremental capacity to provide a near-term runway, but higher gas prices and new egress are not materially changing most producers’ oil-led development strategies. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how producers may respond to the new gas pipelines planned for the Permian.

This is the third blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. In our first blog, we covered the major gas pipeline projects expected to enter service this year and next. Together, the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion, Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Blackcomb Pipeline will add about 5.3 Bcf/d of egress capacity from the Waha area. Our forecast calls for Permian production to grow by 11.2 Bcf/d from 2026-36, with the strongest growth concentrated in 2027-29. That growth could absorb a meaningful portion of the new takeaway over time, particularly as LNG and other Gulf Coast demand expands. Given the scale and timing of the projects, however, some pipelines could initially operate below capacity rather than being fully utilized from the start.

Kinder Morgan’s GCX expansion (0.57 Bcf/d; aqua-blue line in Figure 1 below) is already flowing more gas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas. The expansion lifted the pipeline’s total capacity to 2.6 Bcf/d and has helped the Waha Hub recover from negative prices, though it has not fully resolved Permian takeaway constraints. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (medium-blue line) is ramping up flows to Northeast Texas and will eventually have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. The Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red line) is still in the commissioning process but is expected to enter full commercial service by the end of this year, providing an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of takeaway to Agua Dulce, while the planned 2.4-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline (dashed light-pink line) will provide onward access from Agua Dulce to the Katy/Houston area in 2027.

Two New Permits; Three Permits Canceled; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 29, 2026

Locator: 51834B. 

WTI: $89.30.

Active rigs: 31.

Two new permits, #43352 and #43353 --

• Operator: Phoenix Operating --
• Field: Corinth, Divide County;
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has permits for two Hobbit wells, NWNE 29-160-97; 
• to be sited 356 FNL and 2194 / 2284 FEL.

Three permits canceled:

• CLR: a Salers Federal permits and a Haffner permit, the former in McKenzie County and the latter in Divide County;
• Silver Hill: a Blomquist permit in Burke County.

Five producing wells (DUCs) completed:

• 42281, 33, Formentera Operations, Fonda-23-02-Bal N611HF, Divide County;
• 42305, 1,872, EOG, Hawkeye 32-1324H, McKenzie County;
• 42306, 1,622, EOG, Hawkeye 177-1324H, McKenzie County;
• 42325, 1,796, EOG, Hawkeye 174-1336H, McKenzie County;
• 42326, 1,493, EOG, Hawkeye 176-1336H, McKenzie County;

Horizontal re-entry permit canceled:

• 41258, Marlo Operating, Tosco Branch 2, Bowman County.

MRO Pads In Lost Bridge -- THIS BLOG IS PENDING COMPLETION -- September 29, 2026

Locator: 51833B. 

Locator: 51833MRO.

The reader suggests we'll start seeing more production data in the next month or so. 

A huge thanks to the reader who alerted me to these wells. This post under updating.

Two pads sited in section 13-148-96, and third pad in an adjacent section, Lost Bridge, in various degrees of completion. Some of these are great wells; and, many demonstrate a great halo effect.

The wells: 

• 38025, loc/A, MRO, Osking USA 14-12A, Lost Bridge, t12/21; cum 639K 8/26;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2026	18	3314	3385	2191	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2026	0	0	9	0	516	0	516
BAKKEN	6-2026	8	786	769	549	2445	2061	337
BAKKEN	5-2026	31	3000	2890	2492	8064	7343	542
BAKKEN	4-2026	13	926	896	946	2986	2454	469
BAKKEN	3-2026	31	3187	3282	2259	9177	8496	503
BAKKEN	2-2026	28	3017	2903	2109	7690	7102	434
BAKKEN	1-2026	31	3546	3414	2375	8055	7269	617

• 21839, PNC, MRO
• 21837, 1,398, MRO, Deep Creek USA 14-12RTFH, Lost Bridge, t3/13; cum 494K 8/26; huge halo effect;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2026	28	14182	13960	9748	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2026	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2026	2	46	67	39	240	175	51
BAKKEN	5-2026	20	1013	1045	911	3301	3115	118
BAKKEN	4-2026	30	1655	1685	1407	4919	4655	168
BAKKEN	3-2026	31	1774	1763	1663	6418	6102	190
BAKKEN	2-2026	25	1387	1433	1196	4094	3888	11

• 21838, PNC, 
• 32434, 4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge, t9/20; cum 708K 8/26; huge halo effect;
• 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, t2/13, cum 502K 6/25; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2026	0	0	74	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2026	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2026	8	189	177	357	1131	854	207
BAKKEN	5-2026	31	1608	1618	2178	5786	5478	188
BAKKEN	4-2026	30	1679	1703	1849	6453	6155	171
BAKKEN	3-2026	31	1680	1671	1905	6067	5768	180

The second pad, the wells:

39666, drl, MRO, Ratcliffe USA 11-13H, Lost Bridge, t--, cum --; 
39669,
39668, 
39667,
39670,
39671, drl, MRO, Strobeck USA 34-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t--, cum --; 

A third pad to the northeast:

• 28262, 2622, MRO, Piper 34-12H, Lost Bridge, t8/11; cum 337K 8/26; 
• 19666, 1028, MRO, Elk Creek USA 33-12H, Lost Bridge, t8/11; cum 337K 8/26; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2026	27	7635	7537	3488	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2026	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2026	5	151	208	89	277	204	47
BAKKEN	5-2026	31	1588	1609	535	3240	2788	178
BAKKEN	4-2026	30	1808	1792	578	4272	3861	184
BAKKEN	3-2026	31	1508	1522	841	3574	3253	137
BAKKEN	2-2026	28	1553	1528	264	2507	2227	145

• 19667, AB/902, t9/11; cum 289K 2/24;
• 28263, 3,031, MRO, Morean USA 34-12H, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 591K 8/26; 
• 29003, 2,166, MRO, Victor USA 34-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 275K 8/26; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2026	31	4065	4086	4751	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2026	19	1282	1228	674	1287	990	176
BAKKEN	6-2026	17	218	225	262	390	287	66
BAKKEN	5-2026	31	600	596	139	1179	1013	67
BAKKEN	4-2026	30	434	446	542	872	783	43

• 29004, 2,197, MRO, Gulbrand USA 44-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 384K 8/26; 

The maps:

 

 

Five New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 28, 2026

Locator: 51832B. 

*************************
Tomorrow's Bakken Report

WTI: $92.85.

Wells coming off confidential list:

Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 54 for the month, 134 for the quarter, 491 for the year,

• 42395, conf, KODA Resources, Ale 2436-1BHN, 
• 42284, conf, Formentera, Fonda 23-02-BAL N518HF, 

Monday, September 28, 2026: 52 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 489 for the year,

• 42283, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N516HF, 

RBN Energy: economics, LNG exporters' needs to determine which gulf coast gas storage gets built. Link here. Archived.

Just a few years ago, natural gas storage capacity along the Gulf Coast was widely available at low cost, but that has all changed. The operators of existing and planned LNG export terminals have locked up most of the old storage surplus and much of the incremental storage capacity on the drawing boards. But more storage is needed, and the competition among developers to provide that space is heating up. There will be winners and losers. In today’s RBN blog, we begin an in-depth series on Gulf Coast gas storage — why the market flipped from bust to boom, what’s being planned, and how to predict which projects will make it over the finish line.

The scale is enormous. More than 350 Bcf of new gas storage capacity — most of it salt cavern storage with high injection and withdrawal rates — is known to be under active development in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, and it’s safe to say that at least a couple more projects are still flying under the radar. There are several drivers behind this ongoing, multibillion-dollar buildout, chief among them (1) the proliferation of new and expanded LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast and (2) terminal operators’ need for a place to quickly store large volumes of gas in the event of a liquefaction plant outage.

This is key: Without nearby storage capacity to serve as an at-the-ready buffer for gas supply, terminals could expose themselves to major financial losses, either by not having the gas they need to operate or, most ominously, by being forced to dump billions of cubic feet of gas into the market during an outage event. In essence, gas storage serves as relatively low-cost insurance. (Note that, as a rule of thumb, an LNG export terminal requiring 800 MMcf/d of feedgas should have 15 to 20 days of storage capacity — that is, 12 to 16 Bcf — under contract.)

**************************
Daily Activity Report 
Monday, September 28, 2026

WTI: $93.97. What is Trump waiting for. 

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #43347 - #43351, inclusive --

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Rainbow, Williams County
• Comments: 
• Hess has permits for four GO-Beyer permits and one GO-Binde permit, lot 2, section 3-157-98, 
• to be sited 350 FNL and 1916 / 2048 FEL.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 42314, 1,631, EOG, Hawkeye 33-1324H, McKenzie County;
• 42324, 1,901, EOG, Hawkeye 31-1336H, McKenzie County. 

Schwab.Com Appears To Be Back Up And Working -- The Site Had Been Down For About An Hour -- Posted 9:34 A.M. CT -- September 28, 2026

Locator: 51830INVESTING. 

SpaceX: successfully launched its "massive" Starship rocket into Earth orbit this morning, on time, carrying 26-next-generation Starlink V3 satellites.

Early morning tickers:

 

For Monday Morning -- Posted Sunday, September 27, 2026

Locator: 51829B.  

WTI: surprise, surprise .... WTI up 1.74% Sunday night; pre-market, up $1.61; trading at $94. 

President Trump says he has no plans to even look at Iran's proposal to open the strait. Good for him. Trump has already completed the trifecta in his first year or so in office -- trifecta plus many other "smaller" successes, though those successes would hardly be considered "small" in any other administration. 

New wells reporting:

• Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 54 for the month, 134 for the quarter, 491 for the year,
• 42395, conf, KODA Resources, Ale 2436-1BHN, 
• 42284, conf, Formentera, Fonda 23-02-BAL N518HF, 
• Monday, September 28, 2026: 52 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 489 for the year,
• 42283, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N516HF, 
• Sunday, September 27, 2026: 51 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 488 for the year,
• 42282, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N513HF, 
• Saturday, September 26, 2026: 50 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 487 for the year,
• 42281, conf, Formentera, Fonda-23-02-BAL N611HF,

RBN Energy: potential plans to limit US diesel exports come with plenty of downside risk. Link here. Archived. [President Trump's advisors convinced the same for President Trump and at the moment he has no plans to ban exports of diesel fuel. Wow. Amazing.]

It’s been a banner year for U.S. refiners, especially those able to consistently run at high rates and maximize their production of diesel. The U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spread surpassed $100/bbl for the first time in August and has remained elevated ever since, driven by a series of disruptions to global refining capacity and refined-product flows significant enough to raise the prospect of a ban on U.S. diesel exports as a way to keep prices in check. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where things stand and how a U.S. export ban could result in a number of unintended short- and long-term consequences.

Geopolitical tensions and upset trade flows have been the central theme of this year’s energy markets. Middle Eastern refineries have been affected by damage inflicted during the Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian refining and exports have been repeatedly set back by Ukrainian drone attacks. Those developments come at a time when global refining capacity is already tight due to a number of permanent shutdowns (many during the COVID years) and limited new capacity coming online (a subject addressed in detail in our recently released Future of Fuels report), leading to sharply higher prices for crude oil and refined products.

The diesel market is particularly exposed to those types of disruptions because global supply remains constrained and demand is comparatively (vs. gasoline) resilient, leaving little cushion when disruptions occur. The U.S. has historically been the biggest supplier of diesel to the global market, so it should be no surprise that exports have increased this year, with foreign buyers pulling harder on a system that is already near its limit. U.S. distillate exports averaged about 1.4 MMb/d in H1 2026, up from 1.25 MMb/d in 2025 and about 7X the volumes from 20 years ago. Imports have also declined this year, leading to a record level of net exports.

Standup Paddleboard Racing -- Galveston, TX -- September 27, 2027

Locator: 51828TX. 

For more on open ocean paddleboarding see this link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/RppBQQuU2af7eorL0. 

Our adult daughter, Kiri, 40+ years old, is in a standup paddleboard race off Stewart Beach, Galveston, TX. 

To say the least, it looks very, very daunting, even doing this will friends. Going out against the tide must be incredibly difficult, but perhaps easier when coming in with the tide. 

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb4-JngmLhU.  

 

The course is one-mile long. They kayak or paddleboard out to the buoy one-half mile off the coast, come around and back to the start/finish buoy along the shore, for a one-mile lap. Racers choose the distance they want. This is Kiri's first time on the open ocean so she is racing a short race, only three miles. Her experienced friend is racing five miles. I didn't ask the expected time, but based on first one-mile lap, this looks like an hour per mile.

The granddaddy of US river/lake racing is the Chattajack in / near Nashville, TN -- a 31-mile race on the Tennessee River Gorge -- start-point Chattanooga, TN, -- which Kiri has done for the past four years (?). On the fifth completed race, they earn a huge belt buckle which she should earn this year. 

The race start: I missed it. I was moving the car so it wouldn't get towed!! The race started about 11:15 a.m.

12:15 p.m.: Kiri and her friend finished 3.5 miles in less than an hour. After the first lap, they had to sit down to finish the race. That's how hard it was. 

Final link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/JcG3v8KDPjevUny5c.