Locator: 49601VACCINES.
Speaking of vaccines -- see previous post.
Shingles vaccine protects against dementia.
Also published in Nature. LOL.
Multiple recent studies.
Memo to self: renew my subscription to Nature.
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Beef (and Bacon) In Texas
Locator: 49600STATISTICS.
Amazing that Nature accept this study in the first place.
Fudged data!
This study was reported / retracted by perhaps the most respected science outlet:
A widely cited study on economic damage from climate change was retracted Wednesday following criticism from peers.
The research, published last year in the prestigious journal Nature, projected that the world’s economic output would decline 62% by 2100 under a high-carbon emissions scenario. The estimate was much more severe than other forecasts, prompting scrutiny of the underlying data.
“We broadly agree with the issues raised, and have made corrections to the underlying economic data and to our methodology to address them,” said study author Leonie Wenz, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “These changes are too substantial for a correction of the original article in Nature.”
The study examined historical data from some 1,600 regions worldwide over the past four decades to project how changes in temperature and precipitation would affect economic growth, including factors like agricultural yields, labor productivity and infrastructure.
However, after the study was published, other researchers found that economic data from one country—Uzbekistan—during a short time from 1995 to 1999 had skewed the results. Without Uzbekistan, the 2100 damage forecast fell to 23%, not 62%. The researchers published their critique in Nature in August.
Another researcher who wasn’t involved in the original work, Christof Schötz, said the results were more uncertain than the study suggested and published a separate critique in Nature in August.
The study had been cited by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the World Bank and the Network for Greening the Financial System, or NGFS, a coalition of central banks from which the Federal Reserve withdrew this year.
The coalition, which has members in about 90 countries, incorporated the damage forecast in risk tools that banks can use, for instance, to stress-test portfolios to meet European regulations. The NGFS damage estimate still incorporates the study—with a disclaimer flagging the retraction—pending its next update.
Central bank models of the economic impacts of climate change could have far-reaching implications. If these models show impacts are going to be much worse than previously thought, regulators could make banks set aside more capital to buffer against potential losses associated with assets exposed to climate change, according to Ely Sandler, a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School.
US GDP: $30 trillion.
Uzbekistan: $140 billion.
UZ GDP / US GDP = 140 9 zeroes / 30 12 zeroes = 140 / 30000 = 0.5%.
Oh, give me a break. I've seen better data presented by junior high students at science fairs.
Memo to self: cancel subscription to Nature.
This reminds me of the vaccine article that was retracted by Lancet years ago -- the most respected medical journal in the world found to have published corrupt data: had to do with MMR vaccine and autism. My hunch: RFK, Jr., will resurrect that study, if he hasn't already.
Locator: 49598AMGN.
Ticker AMGN:
Locator: 49597B.
Crowdsrike (CRWD) : 3Q25 -- hit it out of the ballpark. Suggest AI is doing fine.
EVs: not! Trump administration back to gasoline as primary fuel in this country. Link to The NYT.
Texas: rents, used car prices falling ...
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $59.12.
Active rigs: 30.
Ten new permits: #42527 - #42536, inclusive:
One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:
Locator: 49596ELECTRICITY.
Industrial:
Locator: 49594LLM.
This may or may not be of interest / of importance down the road.
Tag: BYOLLM -- Bring Your Own LLM -- CRM -- Salesforce LLM Platform: Einstein
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A Reminder
AI languages:
Locator: 49593TEXAS.
We always renew our lease for as long a period as possible if we renew our lease.
Our lease is up next March (2026) and we just signed the contract to renew our lease. Monthly rent increased by $18 / month. For all practical purposes, no increase in rent, and in line with inflation numbers, our rent actually decreased.
Used car prices have decreased significantly over the past year or so.
Texans who follow this stuff know exactly why rental prices and used car prices have decreased.
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Texas I-287?
This would be huge. From Amarillo to Port Arthur. Link here.
The four-lane divided highway is already in place. It would simply require bringing the thoroughfare up to "federal interstate" standards. $24 billion.
Huge financial benefit for the state of Texas.
AI prompt: with four new interstate highways on the drawing board (I-287, I-14, I-27, I-69) does any other state have anywhere near that amount of interstate planning in the works? I'm not asking about funding, I'm simply asking about future planning.
Google search reply:
Federal interstate activity on the drawing board is essential nil. Nil. Nada. Zilch.
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F-16 Pilot -- Silver Star -- Yemen
SEAD. Perhaps the most dangerous mission for USAF.
Locator: 49592SCCO.
Ticker SCCO: one day, five days, and five years.
For the extended family only: family's portfolio hit a new milestone that after fifty years of investing is unprecedented. Amazing what paying attention during a bull market can create!
Most duplicitous business analyst: Carl Q.
Colette Kress -- Nvidia CFO and Executive VP -- broke through the glass ceiling in a men's world. Holy mackerel. Amazing. Wiki.
Cramer: top Mag 7 company for investing -- AMZN.
Cramer: natural gas price today is abnormally high price. Says investing in natural gas has been a widow-maker.
Briefly:
Locator: 49591TRAP.
Bear trap:
B: Tarriffs: are tariffs inflationary? Democrats: Yes.
B: Taxes: are taxes inflationary? Democrats: Yes.
B: So, why don't you join Trump -- let's cut taxes if we want to cut inflation.
Absolutely brilliant.
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How These Stories Repeat
One has to laugh.
CNBC started the meme that tariffs cause inflation.
Then, the mainstream print media, particularly The New York Times starts repeating the CNBC meme that tariffs cause inflation.
Then CNBC starts repeating the meme that we're "reading" more and more stories that tariffs are inflationary. LOL. CNBC has been persistent, consistent, insistent that tariffs cause inflation. It gets tedious.
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SNAP
Data standoff: Trump’s agriculture secretary threatened to withhold SNAP benefits in 21 Democrat-led states after they refused to provide the USDA with data, including recipients’ names and immigration statuses. The USDA says it wants the data “to root out” fraud.
Trump administration could win on this one. They might not win at first, but eventually, they could. The administration doesn't want any private information, no names associated with social security numbers, but simply the state to do an in-state analysis and provide the total number of folks getting SNAP benefits and total number of folks who get SNAP benefits that have SSNs.
If a million people are receiving SNAP benefits, and only 800,000 have SSNs, one gets an idea of the extent of the problem.
If the states don't have that data, that's even more problematic.
AI:
SNAP beneficiaries document income eligibility through documents like pay stubs or employer statements, bank statements, and records of other income or expenses like child support or medical bills. States also use third-party databases to verify employment and income, such as the Work Number. Applicants must provide documentation for both earned and unearned income, as well as information on potential deductions like child care and medical costs. Telephone interview.
No, "illegal immigrants" are not eligible for federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits. Federal SNAP rules do not extend eligibility to undocumented immigrants, and the program is reserved for U.S. citizens, certain lawfully present non-citizens, and specific immigrant groups.
Based on the information above, and the likely questions I might be asked, it's very likely that I qualify for SNAP benefits. I am unemployed; I hold minimal amount of cash in checking account to keep account open; no child support; me personally, no medical bills in past years. To verify employment and income, I doubt I would show up on Work Number.
Years ago, our adult daughter whose husband was a student at the Harvard Business School and she had a entry-level nursing job (the midnight shift), she applied for and (appropriately) received SNAP benefits. Two years later when her husband graduated from business school and had a 6-figure salary, our adult daughter called SNAP again to be removed from the program. The SNAP folks advised her to stay on the program because "if for some reason she qualified again, it would be harder to go through the process again, than just stay on the program now." True story.
Query: are illegal Somali immigrants in a special class and eligible for SNAP benefits? No, at least according to Google search.
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Covid-19 Masks
Based on video provided by CNBC, it appears that ICE agents are still allowed to wear Covid-19 masks despite lawsuits.
Locator: 49593MSFT.
Wells Fargo: one word -- Oracle.
Microsoft: headline with bad report -- shares plunge pre-market. If MSFT's report and interpretation of the report is accurate, this is company specific. Company specific. Windows 11 and Azure. Link here.
Link here. MSFT loses 2.3% at the open; down over $11 / share. AAPL, ORCL, AMD all up.
My favorite chart: huge jump.
GDPNow: 3.9%.
Electricity prices: North Dakota has the overall lowest rate. North Dakota has always been low; seldom the absolute lowest. September data just released. North Dakota is the only state in single digits. I could be wrong on some of this but not by much. Will post link and numbers later.
CU: surges. Here we go.
US oil production: another record.
US LNG export: another record.
Sleeper: Skechers' slip-ons.
Locator: 49591B.
The Dell initiative: see my proposal from earlier this year.
Biased reporting: mainstream media says the race was close. The winner won by 53% to 45%. That's not close. My dad, who ran for county commissioner many times, always said that winning by a full 1% is a landslide.
CU: surges. Here we go.
Consumers resilient: Macy's best earnings in thirteen quarters; forward guidance raised.
ADP: jobs report is "ugly." Job loss when slight job improvement was anticipated.
Bubble, they say. Link here. We talked about this just the other day.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $59.21.
New wells reporting:
RBN Energy: cost cutting sustains E&P earnings amid continuing commodity price volatility. Archived.
