Update On Deportations -- Another Newsy Day -- April 8, 2025

Locator: 48445ARCHIVES.

Updates

April 10, 2025: A lot of illegal immigrants will try to ride this out. I don't think folks realize Trump has almost four more years in office.

Original Note

Texas politics: before we get to deportations, for the archives -- Texas AG Ken Paxton to challenge four-term US Senator John Cornyn in primary. 

Most transformational president since FDR? From March 28, 2025. News cycle never ends.

Out! DHS launches a new self-deportation app. 

I believe the full story is that this "new" app was announced about a month ago, but apparently the news today is that the "new" app has now launched. Approximately one million immigrants admitted under the "Obama immigration app"are now being told they need to self-deport. New rules in effect as of today. Probably more news, if more news is needed, explaining all this tomorrow.

Rulings: deportation rulings by US Supreme Court.

• now: Judge Boasberg abruptly cancels hearings; did not know he did not have jurisdiction!
• links everywhere; everyone will spin the story differently
  
• ends hopes of a US Supreme Court nomination, although unlikely anyway at his age

Mexico Begins Breaking Up Caravans Headed To The US -- January 8, 2025

Locator: 44641TRUMP.

Mexico begins breaking up the caravans headed for the US after the president-elect speaks of tariffs on Mexico if Mexico does not assist with the southern surge. Link here.

One has to ask: where was the Biden administration these last four years. That's all it took: a verbal "threat" from a president-elect that tariffs were on the table. 

Wow.  

Interestingly, these same comments from the president-elect brought to an end the Trudeau administration in Canada.

The speed with which this all occurred was pretty much unprecedented. 

Southern Surge is a tag. 

Trump 2.0 is tagged here.

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Biden Administration Continues To Harass Trump During The Transition

The Trump haters are releasing reports, expediting sentencing, and Biden is not commenting except to say that he could have beaten Trump.

The WSJ had a great editorial on this earlier this week. One of the best Democrat analysts said the same thing: the Dems did not learn anything from the 2024 campaign. Americans don't care about these things. The Dems are still fighting the 2024 election. The Americans are tuning out. They want to see politicos work on problems facing the average American. 

For the archives. Not worth posting except for the archives.

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Palisades Fire

YouTube is doing an incredibly good job streaming live coverage -- much of it commercial-free -- of the California fires. 

Minimizes need to wait for David Muir at 5:30 p.m. local time. 

The Southern Surge -- Now A "Thing" In The Business / Investing News -- April 7, 2024

Locator: 46946ECONOMY.

Re-Posting

Locator: 46917ECONOMY.

Updates

April 11, 2024: Carl Q: 

April 7, 2024: Exhibit A -- Japan. 

April 7, 2024, link here:

The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.

By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.

In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.

This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.  

In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:

• Netflix: "the next big thing"
• Devon: best operator in the Permian
• Nvidia: I pivoted from energy to semiconductor chips early
  
• the Southern Surge, as part of a bigger story, jobs: the $7 trillion gift

I'm looking for the fifth "deep dive."

Original Post

That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.

The linked Barron's story.

The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.

It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.

Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....

The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.

Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.

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Reposting From Last Month

It started here.

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.

Link here.

Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

 

Demographics -- The Southern Surge -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46917ECONOMY.

Updates

April 7, 2024, link here:

The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.

By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.

In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.

This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.  

In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:

• Netflix: "the next big thing"
• Devon: best operator in the Permian
• Nvidia: I pivoted from energy to semiconductor chips
• the Southern Surge: the $7 trillion gift

Original Post

That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.

The linked Barron's story.

The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.

It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.

Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....

The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.

Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.

**************************
Reposting From Last Month

It started here.

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.

Link here.

Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

The Story That Will Become The Big Story In 2023 -- The Southern Surge -- December 15, 2022

California: Presidential hopeful and California governor Newsom wades (jumps?) into the controversy. Link here.

• As a reminder, "every" Texas county along the Mexican border voted for "open border" proponent Beto whose home town is El Paso, ground zero for the "southern surge."
• Title 42. 

My hunch: this is what concerns the Biden administration: the optics. The videos that will come out of this story.

Meanwhile, link here.

Global Population: Our Grandchildren Will See This -- July 23, 2022

Locator: 43000C.

Updates

July 12, 2024: getting worse. Some suggest the number could drop all the way to 525 million -- in the same ballpark as North America.

April 10, 2023: link here.

July 26, 2022: link here. 

Original Post 

First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.

By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. Graphic below.

Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China, by the end of the century, and right now, unable to benefit from high oil prices. 

This story is absolutely criminal and it appears the UN is uninterested. Not surprising. 

Link here. 

From the linked olprice article by Julianne Geiger:

The severe revenue shortfall does not allow Nigeria to service its debt. 

The cost of Nigeria’s gasoline subsidy will be about 10 times what it had originally budgeted, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari revealed in an April letter to lawmakers. 

That cost of that subsidy is expected to be just south of $10 billion. 

Unlike other major oil producers that have benefited handsomely from higher crude oil prices, Nigeria has negligible refining capacity, forcing it to import nearly all of the gasoline it consumes. 

And Nigeria must pay today’s high costs for that gasoline while continuing to sell it onto the consumer for much less in order to keep prices at 39 cents. 

The value of Nigeria’s petroleum imports far outweighs the value of its petroleum exports—to the tune of $43 billion. Nigeria has toyed with the idea of ending the gasoline subsidies, but the specter of fuel protests caused the President to scrap those plans.

Sri Lanka.

Panama.

Ecuador. 

Boris Johnson out.

Italian government falls (but that's probably not news).

Back to the first article, looking at projected population in 2100.

Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:

Top seven countries in population in 2100:

I do not know Peter Zeihan's opinion on the southern surge (tag here for background) but I do know what he says in his 2022 book.

With regard to the southern surge:

• the US needs to embrace it positively, lovingly, and with the spirit of Ellis Island, and the Statue of Liberty; but,
• it must be done correctly.

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Other Observations

We could have fun with this all day, but here are the things that jump out at me:

• overall:
• biggest surprise: change in China's population
• second biggest surprise: Nigeria
  
• most concerning for me: (no) change in the US population over the century
• carbon emissions:
  
• if we do absolutely nothing with regard to CO2 emissions, note: the two countries which are #1 and #2 in emissions, China and the US -- total population falls precipitously (total US + China):
• I assume Nigeria will account for some CO2 emissions based on population but "nothing" in the big scheme of things (no industry), and it's their population that grows the largest.
• be careful with the graph above. It looks like India is the problem: population + coal. In fact, India's population contracts significantly also.
• economic growth: nothing kills an economy like lack of (no) population growth. 
• US. Flat. Needs the southern surge.
  
• Russia. Even worse. Russia needs the Ukraine.
  
• Japan. Even worse than Russia.
• China: on a percentage basis, it appears to be the worst of all; they need Taiwan.
  
• Europe -- not even one European country shows up on either side of the graphic. Bangladesh shows up on both sides, but Canada, Mexico, Argentina and Taiwan do not. Nor does South Africa. Not good news for any of these countries. 
• Brazil: same thing could be said about Brazil but I doubt anyone cares.
  
• energy demand: 
• add up the fourteen population numbers on the left side of the chart (4.710 billion) and the fourteen population numbers on the right side of the chart (4.712 billion); no population growth among the top fourteen countries.

Recommendation: read Peter Zeihan, c. 2022.

Anyone Following The Baby Formula Story? May 12, 2022

Update

June 6, 2022: completely orchestrated by an out-of-control FDA. Link here. Note the basis on which the plant was shut down.

May 22, 2022: how serious this problem really is. Again, completely mismanaged.

May 14, 2022: black market opportunities --

May 14, 2022:

May 12, 2022: formula headlines --

May 12, 2022: when I saw this headline, I knew it was an orchestrated "shortage," an orchestrated crisis. If you doubt me, do the math.

May 12, 2022: Amazon. 

May 12, 2022: Target, local, a fake recall, an orchestrated "shortage"; an orchestrated crisis.

Later 10:47 p.m. CT: when one does the math and then reads the backstory, one can see that, yes, indeed, there was a shortage; the shortage was a non-problem until it became politicized by the GOP  / Breitbart  and then it became a problem. The problem will run its course in weeks, if not days. If one runs the numbers, one will know what I'm talking about.

Later, 5:21 p.m. CT: I think the "baby formula shortage" is being orchestrated. We'll talk about it later. Now to the pool with Sophia. But let the hoarding begin.

Original Post 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply to a reader who sent me the original links.

My reply:

Thank you very much. I find this incredible.

Now, for investing, which companies are making all this formula?

Enfamil and Similac is where I would go first.

Enfamil: Mead Johnson

Similac: Abbott.

Wow, wow, wow.

Abbott is one of my favorites among the Buffett-like stocks. Mead Johnson, I know nothing.

Formula is not a one-time purchase. The US government is going to buy more and more baby formula going forward.

No press allowed at Biden baby formula meeting: Operation Breast Milk Substitute -- 

• https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2022/05/12/report-no-press-allowed-at-biden-baby-formula-meeting/.

Apparently the US government is buying "pallets" of baby formula for southern surge:

• https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/12/nolte-gop-rep-says-illegal-immigrants-receiving-pallets-baby-formula/. 

The source is not mainstream. Needs to be fact-checked.

One has to remember: ever since Sigma-6 and kaizen (think Toyota Motors) and Dr Deming, US manufacturers of "everything" look at a two-week window of storage. Any more than two weeks of storage of anything is not efficient. I think one can connect the dots from there. 

A huge thanks to the reader for alerting me to this very, very interesting story. Baby formula is an extremely small market, it doesn't take much to put it "out of whack." How small is it? Take a look around your house: how many babies do you have on formula?

"Southern Surge" is occasionally tracked here.

A Cup Half-Full; Pelosi's Choice -- May 11, 2019

The transition might be a bit rough -- transitions always are -- but the southern surge, or Pelosi's Choice as some call it -- is going to be a huge economic boost for the US over the next ten years. There will be a huge transfer of wealth and huge amounts of government spending at the federal and state level that will flow through the system. The new immigrants all need to eat; they all need housing. Our federal, state, and local governments won't let them remain homeless.

Conservatively, each family member in the southern surge will need $5,000/year on which to live. The first year the funding will be easily available -- relatively easily available compared to each additional year. The families won't be hiding that money in mattresses or putting it in savings accounts. They will be spending it. It will flow through the economy. One can start to think about investing opportunities.

The numbers coming across the border are incredible. Apparently 1% of two Central American countries entered the US last year illegally. I assume the numbers will be greater for at least one more year.

From LMTonline, this headline: border detention cells in Texas are so overcrowded that the US is using aircraft to move migrants.

That headline is not quite right. The US is not using aircraft to move migrants because the detention centers are so overcrowded. It's because the US has run out of .... drum roll ... buses. Are you kidding? Was there even a nationwide call for buses? You mean the US is so well endowed financially the country has more air seats than bus seats. I find that simply incredible. What a great country.

Overcrowding at Border Patrol stations in South Texas has become so acute in recent days that U.S. authorities have taken the rare step of using aircraft to relocate migrants to other areas of the border simply to begin processing them, according to three Homeland Security officials.

The first flight left McAllen, Texas, on Friday, transferring detainees to Border Patrol facilities in Del Rio, Texas. There are daily flights scheduled for the next several days, with two planned for Tuesday, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the operations.

What a hoot for these families who probably never dreamed of flying anywhere. I assume they get an in-flight snack.

The US government is taking a page out of Amazon's playbook. When you positively, absolutely have to get something (someone, in this case) somewhere overnight, use airplanes.

Speaking of Amazon.

Just the first of many, madeinAlabama:

Amazon’s 855,000-square-foot facility is being constructed on 133 acres of property formerly owned by U.S. Steel off Powder Plant Road in Bessemer, located just minutes away from Birmingham. Total investment in the project is $325 million.

Amazon officials joined Governor Kay Ivey and leaders from Jefferson County and the City of Bessemer at a ceremonial groundbreaking this afternoon at the site, where construction is already under way on the facility.

Ryan Lively, operations manager for Amazon, said the company’s first Alabama fulfillment center will house the latest technology, including state-of-the-art robotics, to help the 1,500 workers pick, pack and ship items such as books, toys, health care products and electronics items to customers in the Southeast and beyond.

Jeff Bezos must see the same cup that I do: half full, and getting fuller.