Wednesday, April 28, 2021

ATT, Apple, And Delta -- April 28, 2021

So, imagine you sell smartphones at the local ATT kiosk. How would you like this on your resume:

  • sold 19,000 iPhones in one day

Well, whoever signed that contract can tell her family she just sold 19,000 iPhones today.

Link here.

Headline: Delta rolling out iPhone 12 to over 19,000 flight attendants.

In partnership with AT&T and Apple, U.S. airline Delta will equip every one of its over 19,000 flight attendants with an iPhone 12 to "enhance the travel experience for all passengers," it was announced today. 

Citing "white privilege," "critical race theory," equity, equality, and "liberté, egalité, fraternité, Delta said the pilots will get entry level Samsung phones. Co-pilots will use Microsoft Surface "things."

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Headlines

After today's earnings report and conference call, these headlines over at MacRumors:

Other:

  • EPS: $1:40 vs 99 cents forecast; vs 64 cents one year ago;
  • revenue: $90 billion vs $77 billion forecast; vs $58 billion one year ago;
  • profit: $24 billion vs $11 billion one year ago
  • if I read the chart correctly, this was the second-best quarterly record ever in the history of Apple;

Wireless carriers discounting the iPhone 12 pushes Apple to a blow-out quarter. Link here.  

Two years ago, Apple CEO Tim Cook made peace with Qualcomm to end an acrimonious patent dispute, agreeing to pay high royalties for the chipmaker's technology. He then turned around and bet big on Qualcomm's best 5G chips for superfast mobile connections, adding them to all of last year's iPhone 12 line up.

Cook's bet paid off.

Apple on Wednesday announced earnings for the first three months of 2021 that crushed Wall Street's forecasts, sending the company's shares up 4% in after-hours trading. Overall sales rose an astounding 54% to $89.6 billion, blowing past the average analyst estimate of $77 billion. Profits came in at $1.40 per share, also well above the average estimate of 98 cents.

IPhone sales led the way, rising 66% to $48 billion.

The Goldman Sachs Announcement -- $80 Oil By The End Of The Year -- April 28, 2021

Before we get to the Goldman Sachs announcement, Rigzone has pointed out that retail gasoline prices in California have now reached $4 / gallon, and that's before the Newsom bans take effect. We'll see $6 gasoline in some parts of California before the end of the driving season.

****************************************
Goldman Sachs: $80 Oil

Link here.  

From social media:

At the link, one can read replies to that tweet, follow the thread.

Re-printing without the abbreviations:

The oil market is approaching a perilous intersection of resurgent demand and a limited US lower-48 supply response. 

Shale CAPEX discipline, paired with oilfield services bottlenecks (people and equipment), will limit US ramp [in crude oil production] as global demand normalizes [back to pre-Covid levels] in coming months. Goldman Sachs call is too conservative. [Writer predicts] $80 Brent by August.

Okay that was the note above, made to read more easily. The most interesting comment/reply in the thread was this (by the same writer):

It's not a perfect comparison (obviously) but if you look at Israel and vaccine trajectory and the sudden step-change DOWN in new cases, it's jarring. It that happens in the United States over a one-month period, watch out.

I've said many, many times, it's a fool's errand to try to predict the price of oil but if one quickly scrolls through multiple oil and gas media sites (news sources and social media) the "drum beat" is getting louder and louder, the "drum beat" being $80-oil

Had you mentioned that to me six months ago I would have a) laughed; b) rolled my eyes; or, c) yawned, but all of a sudden I'm not so sure.

Saudi Arabia's MBS has certainly been hinting at higher-priced oil. Goldman Sachs started this most recent round of $80-talk with its advisory note / announcement today. 

Jim Cramer, CNBC, says we won't see $80-oil. He says Saudi Arabia won't allow $80-oil because that would benefit US shale, and the latter would increase production.

Cramer may be correct, but it was an incredibly glib answer. But there certainly are a lot of folks talking much higher oil prices sooner than later, all of a sudden.

I find it very interesting: on the one hand we have rational folks suggesting higher priced oil sooner than later based on facts, data, reasonable projections. On the other hand we have guys like Jim Cramer telling anecdotes suggesting that we won't see higher-priced oil. [See idle rambling on a Monday night.]

Jay Powell says inflation will be transitory, that it may get worse before it gets better. One wonders if Jay Powell and the fed can predict the price of oil. If not, and if the price of oil quickly rises to $80, the "transitory" inflation Jay Powell talks about may not be so "transitory." 

I think this is fascinating.

Bottom line:

  • it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil;
  • more and more rational folks are predicting the price of oil to move higher much more quickly than previously thought based on facts, data, and rational projections;
  • folks like Jim Cramer saying it won't happen simply because they don't think it will happen isn't very convincing

Whenever I question whether the price of oil can move that quickly, I simply review the chart at macrotrends and it's very obvious that the norm is for oil to move higher or lower much more quickly than one might think possible.

By the way, I've always said that US shale oil production can turn on a dime compared to off-shore production and even Saudi production, but I'm not so sure this time. Drilling the wells is not the problem; fracking is the problem/challenge now and that is a bottleneck. Resources (people) and equipment have disappeared.

It's Official: Elvis Has Left The Building -- April 28, 2021

From the Williston Herald, social media link here


More:

  • first report, February 10, 2021;
  • Equinor exits Bakken shale with $900 million sale to Grayson Mill Energy, WorldOil, February 10, 2021;
  • google search;
    • Equinor acquired BEXP for $4.7 billion in 2011
    • spent a lot of money developing the Bakken
    • in the end, Equinor sold for less than one billion dollars -- just before WTI breaks out;
    • what am I missing here?

Chevron Increases Dividend; S&P 500 Hits New All-Time Record; State Petroleum Consumption -- April 28, 2021

Link here. Press release:
[CVX] declared a quarterly dividend of one dollar and thirty-four cents ($1.34) per share, an increase of five cents ($0.05) per share or approximately 4 percent. 
The dividend is payable June 10, 2021, to all holders of common stock as shown on the transfer records of the Corporation at the close of business May 19, 2021. 
This increase puts Chevron on track to make 2021 the 34th consecutive year with an increase in annual dividend payout per share.

S&P 500: hits new all-time record.

*********************************
Petroleum Consumption By State

Link here

Population (numbers rounded):

  • California: 40 million
  • Texas: 30 million
  • Florida: 20 million

Per capita:

  • California: 3.6 quadrillion / 40 million = 3.6 *10^15 / 40 x 10^6 = 3.6/40 *10^9 = 0.09 *10^9 = 90 million
  • Texas: 7.0 quadrillion / 30 million = 23 million
  • Florida: 1.9 quadrillion / 20 million = 10 million

Ballpark: link here.  US average: an American uses 149 million Btus of energy / year.


Breitbart's "Take" On "Fed-Speak" Today -- April 28, 2021

From the Breitbart News Network, today:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee managed to thread the monetary policy needle Wednesday. 
Their official statement was nearly unchanged from the last meeting, providing a reassuring sign of stability to the market. 
Yet they acknowledged that the economy had significantly improved, preserving their credibility as clear-eyed analysts of the economy. And they still managed to sound as if they were no nearer to "tapering" their $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, much less raising rates.

In his press conference, Powell emphasized that the Fed believes that current inflationary pressures are transitory and any spike in prices over the coming months will not lead to sustained inflation. He made it very clear that a spike in inflation above the two percent target this year will not trigger a rate hike. Instead, the Fed will keep up the bond buying until there is "substantial further progress" toward full employment. It's not even time to talk about talking about slowing the purchases, Powell said. Rates will not rise until we reach both full employment and average inflation over time of two percent, which translates into inflation running above two percent for some time to make up for undershooting for so long.

That seemed to satisfy markets on Wednesday. Stocks moved down a bit, and bond yields inched up but not significantly. Nonetheless, many market watchers still are anticipating that inflationary pressures will force the Fed's hand earlier than the Fed expects.

One thing that could drive that is the combination of President Biden's infrastructure plan and his "American family" plan, the latter of which will be unveiled a few hours from now at Biden's first joint address to Congress. That would add $1.9 trillion of new spending on top of the $2.3 trillion for all the things they are calling infrastructure. Could that be enough to get inflation going? Unfortunately, we may find out.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney Breitbart News Network

CLR -- April 28, 2021 -- IN PROGRESS

CLR's April, 2021, corporate presentation: will download as a pdf

From slide seven of that presentation:



No New Permits; Active Rig Count At Sixteen; WTI Holds Just Below $64 -- April 28, 2021

Gasoline demand, link here.

Chip shortage: not all automobile manufacturers are "treated" equally. Ford was particularly hard hit because it relied on "one" supplier, and that supplier suffered a major facility fire sometime in the last twelve months. Or something along that line. Not fact-checked. Later: from a reader, see first comment. Link here.

Japanese automotive chipmaker Renesas has said the blaze at its factory in Japan earlier this month may be worse than expected, with 17 fabrication machines affected rather than the 11 originally indicated.

The news is another blow for the semiconductor outfit, which is still recovering from the March 19 fire that shut down its Naka facility’s N3 Building, which produces 300mm wafer sizes at the campus, about 100km northeast of Tokyo.

Covid-19 vaccine anxiety: numbers lower today than expected, link here.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.86
4/28/202104/28/202004/28/201904/28/201804/28/2017
Active Rigs1630646249

No new permits.

Three oil & gas permits renewed:

  • CLR: a Gordon Federal permit in Dunn County;
  • Bruin: an Ann H Thome permit in Williams County;
  • Lime Rock Resources: a State B permit in Dunn County;

APPLE!

AAPL.

I'll be off the internet for awhile.

Going automobile shopping.

https://9to5mac.com/2021/04/28/aapl-q2-2021-earnings/.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/apple-aapl-earnings-q2-2021.html.

Dividend increase by 7%.

But look at this: share buyback of 50 billion was on the high side estimate; turns out the company authorized a 90-billion-dollar-share buyback. 

Based on her questions and comments, CNBC Sara Eisen "doesn't get it." Talk about a "Debbie Downer."

New AAPL target:

  • low side: $175
  • high side: $250 (or maybe it was $225 -- I forget what the talking head said)

P/E: did I hear that the P/E dropped below 30? 

$90 billion in revenue in one quarter? 

$90 billion share buyback? 

It's hard to believe but AAPL's 52-week high was $145 -- we have quite a bit of room to run.

Goldman  Sachs: "we were wrong on Apple." Link here.

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ESG

By the way, before I forget and completely unrelated to AAPL/ Apple, Inc.

Like the Democrat / Biden definition of "infrastructure," "ESG" means whatever a company wants it to mean.

Notes From All Over -- Early Afternoon Edition -- April 28, 2021

WTI: holy mackerel! $63.86.

  • HES: up 8.6%
  • DVN, bought WPX: up 8.51%
  • APA: up 7.7%
  • CLR: up 5.9%
  • PXD, bought Parsley, DoublePoint Energy: up 4%
  • COP, bought Concho: up 3.65%
  • MNRL: up 3.5%
  • CVX: up 3%
  • XOM: up 3%
  • OKE: up 2%; up $1.22; whoo-hoo.
  • EPD: up 1.1%
  • SRE: down 0.3%; not surprising;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Elsewhere; Earlier I wrote, re-posting:

GOOG: smashes sales records. The "big story": Google owns YouTube. Some factoids and data points:

  • YouTube has no -- repeat, YouTube has no -- competitor (if you doubt me, tell me its "straight up" competitor)
  • in 2019, YouTube generated over $15 billion in revenues from advertising alone
  • YouTube is now owned by Alphabet (GOOG); Alphabet's deep pockets can take YouTube "to infinity and beyond"
  • YouTube is becoming a VOD streaming service that will compete / is competing with Hulu, Roku, etc.
    • when deciding which streaming service to go, May and I had four choices: Hulu, Netflix, Roku, and YouTube
    • I was leaning toward YouTube; May wanted Hulu
    • we have Hulu -- for a whole lot less than what Spectrum was costing us
  • YouTube is now the fastest growing segment of Alphabet
  • this makes it easy to see how Congress cold break up these big tech companies; see next entry

Early afternoon, April 28, 2021:

  • GOOG is up $105; up almost 5%; trading at $2,441, dropping back a bit after hitting a 52-week high; pays no dividend;

********************************
Tesla

I'm getting a kick out of all the "whining" and hand-wringing on CNBC and on social media, about Tesla "making more money selling bitcoin and / or regulatory credits than they do selling cars." Well, who cares? This is the thing. Investors and CEOs need to know what "business" they are investing in and/or running, respectively.

If you don't like the fact that Tesla is making more money selling bitcoin and / or regulatory credits, then move on. There's only a gazillion other publicly traded companies one can consider.

For example, I've maintained for quite some time that Apple, Inc., is in the "fashion" business. That's why they hired that former Burberry CEO some time ago (before quickly moving on). Apple sells hardware; they sell software; but at the end of the day, it's all about "fashion" and "marketing." If not, they might as well be selling Dell / Lenovo / HP two-inch-thick laptops. LOL.

Sure, long time, that might not be a great business model .... selling bitcoin and regulatory credits. But that "buys" Tesla time, doesn't it? I don't know. But in the short term, I really don't care how Tesla makes its money. That's better than the alternative isn't it? 

Rhetorical questions. Please don't reply. 

As recently as last March, 2020, one could have bought TSLA for $80. Today? $700/share.

Okay. 

One almost things those folks whining Tesla are:
kicking themselves for not buying Tesla last March, 2020; and, or,
shorting the stock. 

As for me, I don't care how companies make their money, as long as they make money (and it's legal and "relatively" moral).

Weekly Petroleum Report: EIA -- API -- April 28, 2021

See first comment:

2nd week in a row that the EIA reported a build when it was really a draw...1.45 million commercial barrels came out of the SPR, which aren't counted as commercial...the numbers are small potatoes, but the psychological difference between the two words is immense...


Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage increased by a paltry 0.1 million bbls (compare with the API data from yesterday); I assume this will be described as a surprise by Julianne
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 493.1 million bbls; right at the five-year average
  • 0.1 million bbls: false precision
  • refiners operating at 85.4% of their operable capacity;
  • imports: 6.6 million bbls, which is a significant increase (see below); imports of crude oil increased by 1.2 million bpd from the previous week; that's almost a 25% increase week-over-week;
  • gasoline inventories increased by 0.1 million bbls and stand 3% below the five-year average:
  • total gasoline product supplied dropped below 9 million bpd; down to 8.9 million bpd, but that is up almost 70% greater than for the same period last year;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million bbls but remain at five-year average:
  • but look at this: total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged almost 20 million bpd, up by 35% from the same period last year;
  • jet fuel product supplied almost doubled that of last year for the same four-week period last year;
These numbers are simply incredible. Only the most cynical, most negative folks could miss this.  And the re-opening is in the very first inning, if that; maybe the top of the first inning. On top of all that, the US is yet to enter its summer driving season.

*****************************************
API: Yesterday

From yesterday:

Today's data was the API data, link here; tomorrow, the EIA data. 

Again, Julianne Geiger says it was a "surprise." LOL. It's always a surprise.

Today's surprise: "US oil inventories rose beyond expectations." That's an understatement.

API reported an extensive build in crude oil:

  • a build of 4.319 million bbls;
  • forecast: 659,000 bbls
  • yes, I would say that was quite a surprise.

We'll see what the EIA reports tomorrow; that link is here

API reports that even as oil inventories rose substantially, US oil production held steady at 11. million bpd. Pretty remarkable. So, either imports or less demand.

WTI Quietly Breaks Through $64 -- 9:41 A.M. -- April 28, 2021

Trading at $64.01. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

MNRL: up 3%; up almost 50 cents; breaks through $17.

Alphabet, re-posting from earlier today --

GOOG: smashes sales records. The "big story": Google owns YouTube. Some factoids and data points:

  • YouTube has no -- repeat, YouTube has no -- competitor (if you doubt me, tell me its "straight up" competitor
  • in 2019, YouTube generated over $15 billion in revenues from advertising alone
  • YouTube is now owned by Alphabet (GOOG); Alphabet's deep pockets can take YouTube "to infinity and beyond"
  • YouTube is becoming a VOD streaming service that will compete / is competing with Hulu, Roku, etc.
    • when deciding which streaming service to go, May and I had four choices: Hulu, Netflix, Roku, and YouTube
    • I was leaning toward YouTube; May wanted Hulu
    • we have Hulu -- for a whole lot less than what Spectrum was costing us
  • YouTube is now the fastest growing segment of Alphabet
  • this makes it easy to see how Congress cold break up these big tech companies; see next entry

Congressional hearings: tech companies -

  • nothing on anti-trust; nothing to suggest any Congressional interest in breaking up the big tech companies;
    • follow the money
  • Congress seemed to be somewhat interested in "privacy"
  • otherwise, seems to be a non-event

Notes From All Over -- April 28, 2021

Hopefully, folks are paying attention. This may just be the most incredible bull market anyone alive has ever seen. Does anyone remember the recession? There was (and still is, in many cases and many places, a depression on Main Street, but the investor class is doing very, very well).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

 Top story: GOOG but first, first things first.

First things first: Lana del Rey announces a new album; to be released July 4, 2021; her eighth album?

Now back to GOOG: smashes sales records. The "big story": Google owns YouTube. Some factoids and data points:

  • YouTube has no -- repeat, YouTube has no -- competitor (if you doubt me, tell me its "straight up" competitor
  • in 2019, YouTube generated over $15 billion in revenues from advertising alone
  • YouTube is now owned by Alphabet (GOOG); Alphabet's deep pockets can take YouTube "to infinity and beyond"
  • YouTube is becoming a VOD streaming service that will compete / is competing with Hulu, Roku, etc.
    • when deciding which streaming service to go, May and I had four choices: Hulu, Netflix, Roku, and YouTube
    • I was leaning toward YouTube; May wanted Hulu
    • we have Hulu -- for a whole lot less than what Spectrum was costing us
  • YouTube is now the fastest growing segment of Alphabet
  • this makes it easy to see how Congress cold break up these big tech companies; see next entry

Congressional hearings: tech companies -

  • nothing on anti-trust; nothing to suggest any Congressional interest in breaking up the big tech companies;
    • follow the money
  • Congress seemed to be somewhat interested in "privacy"
  • otherwise, seems to be a non-event

AAPL: futures slightly negative overnight; finally, AAPL futures turn green, but just barely;

S&P 500: hits new high; 

Dow: being dragged down by Boeing, MSFT, and Amgen

Fast and furious, clearing out the overnight in-box:

Miscellaneous:

  • New York opens vaccine appointments to walk-ins as demand wanes;
    • the blog was the first to report this "vaccine hesitancy" -- spotted while following the CDC daily numbers
    • just when vaccinations should be soaring (open to everyone over the age of 16, and huge supply of vaccine), numbers are actually dropping some days;

Energy:

  • Saudi Crown Prince MBS: oil demand will continue to grow until 2040; will surpass global supply; link here.
  • natural gas: EU admits they can't get to net-zero without natural gas;
  • trucking boom: why oil's demand comeback is here to stay; Bloomberg;
    • refilling warehouses means more truck driving and diesel use
    • freight seen at "peak-season-like-levels" through 2021
    • load growth rate anticipated to be 70% over the next six month, up 50% from 4Q20;
    • over-the-road truckload demand is at unprecedented levels; expected to continue into 2022;
    • the rails expect to haul a whole lot more diesel (CSX, UNP)
    • US diesel inventory currently at 140 million bbls; down from nearly 180 million bbls last summer
  • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) warns of nearly one-billion-dollar loss on hedges; PXD trading higher this morning;

Streaming:

Busy, Busy Wednesday Even Though No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 28, 2021

Hopefully, folks are paying attention. This may just be the most incredible bull market anyone alive has ever seen.

  • first quarter earnings are much better across the board on so many levels
  • 1Q20: the pandemic had really not hit; skiing in Italy was hit -- that seems to be where the first stories originated
  • comparing 1Q21 with 1Q20 is a fair comparison
  • for the next four quarters, comparing year-ago results will be "wrong," but analysts will do just that
  • now we have the re-opening trade;
  • government spending probably no longer needed but it's going to happen regardless
  • the 2020 - 2035 "run" has been front-loaded; will play out 2020 - 2025;
  • crude oil demand will be huge; see below

CNBC crawler:

  • MSFT: down $7
  • FB: up $5
  • AAPL: flat
  • SBUX: raises full year guidance; re-opening

Oil demand, source:

  • demand growth will be the biggest ever over the next twelve months;
  • growth will be 50% greater than the previous growth record back in 2000
  • WTI: $80 by end of year (2021)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Spotify: plummeting.

AMD: hit it out of the ballpark.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.67
4/28/202104/28/202004/28/201904/28/201804/28/2017
Active Rigs1630646249

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: California's low carbon fuel standard and why it matters, part 2

As governments and corporations around the world evaluate methods of decarbonization across sectors, one focus area has been transportation, since the petroleum fuels used to mobilize economies are significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is one of the longest-running programs for carbon intensity (CI) reduction targeting the transportation sector and provides an ideal case study to review for a better understanding of how one type of GHG reduction policy is anticipated to work. As many of the principles in this pioneering program are being evaluated for replication elsewhere, its results and consequences are still in the making. In today’s blog we’ll provide an overview of the Golden State’s groundbreaking LCFS, looking at its history, how it functions, and its effectiveness at meeting its goals to date.

This is Part 2 in a blog series on low carbon fuel policies, the mechanisms being evaluated to meet increasingly stringent GHG-related regulations, and the impact these rules could have on refined-products markets. Earlier we provided an overview of various policies that have been adopted and are being discussed to reduce GHG emissions from on-road transportation fuel use. We also noted some of the more popular approaches being taken, including fuel economy standards, renewable blending requirements, zero emission vehicle mandates, and clean fuel standards like LCFS programs in California and Oregon, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard. Such LCFS programs are usually established and measured based on the carbon intensity (CI) of fuels used. CI is a measure of the lifecycle GHG emissions associated with producing, distributing, and consuming a fuel, which is measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ). (That’s the simple version.) Typically, LCFS policies establish downward-sloping carbon-intensity benchmarks for the jurisdiction’s total transportation fuel pool, and incentivize the production and blending of lower-CI fuels to meet the benchmarks.

Today, we focus on California’s program. We should note up front that the nation’s most populous state has been a frontrunner on environmental policies for many decades. Back in 1965, California was the first state to regulate vehicle exhaust by setting limits on carbon monoxide and other hydrocarbon emissions — younger readers may not remember when Los Angeles was as well-known for smog as it was for movie-making. In 1967, the Federal Air Quality Act allowed California to enforce more stringent pollution standards than the federal government, and in the 44 years since, the state has generally had the tightest standards for ozone and particulate emissions. Then came the 2002 enactment of Assembly Bill (AB) 1493, which required the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to begin regulating GHG emissions from cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks. There have been many other laws and regulations since then, including the state’s LCFS.