Friday, March 29, 2024

Week 13: March 25, 2024 -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46865TOPSTORIES.

Top story:

  • Trump goes back to court; gets relief on bond; dollar amount reduced significantly;
  • US economy still doing incredibly well. Hard to believe how good it's doing;
  • US equity markets hitting new highs.

Top international non-energy story:

  • Red Sea remains closed; attacks on US Navy surge; seems unable to effectively counter -- unchanged
  • US DOD may establish new command with Tokyo address.

Top international energy story:

  • Poland talks war with Russia; no one seems to notice.

Top national non-energy story:

  • Fisker on verge of bankruptcy; delisted by NYSE.

Top national energy story:

  • WTI trends toward $83; new floor seems to be $82 -- at least for now.

Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Electricity Bill -- For The Archives -- March 29, 2024

Locator: 46864ARCHIVES.

Electricity bill: this is our sole energy cost (other than gasoline for the cars) for our carbon dioxide emission footprint -- we have only electricity, no natural gas or anything else. Our electricity is almost 100% wind, solar according to the utility. 

Our stated rate: 466 kWh @ $0.155499/kWh. The additional charge, 2.0% sales tax and a strange tax I don't understand, $1.84 and $1.80, respectively. 

$2.35 / day -- less than the cost of a visit to a local Starbucks, something I haven't done in months, probably coming up on seven months now?


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The Book Club
Originally Posted: July 31, 2023
Re-posted: March 29, 2024

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story: Michael Lewis, c. 2021.

I might make it a requirement: to access the blog one must have this book in your personal library.

I could require a password to access the blog and the password would be the "nth" word on the "nth" page of the book and the password would change weekly.

The book is that good.

I've read the first chapter and the first half of the second chapter. I have no idea where Michael Lewis is going with this but it is absolutely fascinating. 

But no, I won't require a password to access the blog. LOL.

I don't read books like these, as a rule, and to the best of knowledge, I've never read any of the twelve books or so that Michale Lewis has already written, including Moneyball

Peter Zeihan -- March 29, 2024

Locator: 46863ARCHIVES.

Peter Zeihan seldom disappoints but today I wonder if Peter didn't miss the big story here.

The $7 trillion gift.

Link here to Peter Zeihan.

The $7 trillion gift.

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Top Colleges

Link here to TWSJ

Wow, I was truly, truly disappointed by the comments. 

I'll have the opportunity to talk about this later.

Most interesting for me: the absolute huge number of top universities, public and private in this country. Truly amazing what this country has to offer. 

The gap between those "who know" and those "who don't" will continue to widen -- again, see the social comments.

But look at California, these are top under-graduate public schools for tech:

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The Movie Page

"Top 10 Uses of Narration of All Time | A CineFix Movie List."

Link here.

If you want to see a list of great movies you still haven't watched, start here.

Sunset Boulevard ranked #2 on this list.

#1?

Blue. Derek Jarman. 1993. A gay man struggling with AIDS.

1989 or thereabouts I hosted a European military medical conference, bringing together the leadership of all the military facilities in Europe at the time. A huge success. Probably the best to date at that time, and I doubt, ever equaled. It was good, as I pat myself on the back. The keynote speaker: the military lead researcher on AIDS. It's hard to believe but the military provided some of the best early AIDS research. Another story never told.

Link here.

Not on the list unless I missed it: Sunset Boulevard. But, Chinatown, #1.

The reviewers had to limit the Coen Brothers to one slot, otherwise the Coen Bros would have had all ten top screenplays. Wow. 

The ten best screenplays of all time: link here. When I see this list and watch the clips, I am reminded how really incredible Johnny Carson -- a midwesterner -- was when interviewing Hollywood A-listers.

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Waiting for the Numbers

Tesla, link here.

As of Thursday, the last trading day of the quarter, analysts were expecting around 457,000 deliveries for the period. That would mark an increase of 8% from 422,875 a year earlier.
Estimates for the quarter ranged from 414,000 to 511,000 deliveries. Analysts who updated their numbers in March were the most bearish, with their estimates ranging from 414,000 to 469,000.
Independent autos industry researcher “Troy Teslike” expects the company’s deliveries to come in below even the lowest estimate captured by FactSet.

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The Geography Page

 I wonder if the best "thing" I've learned from blogging: geography from Manhattan to Boston?

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The Book Page

I've misplaced my hardback copy of the annotated Wuthering Heights. I may need to order a new copy. Only $35.

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Curious George

I had not been down to the Bat Cave in quite some time due to cool weather. Tonight I decided to see what Curious George was up to. Holy mackerel! 

He even has a new sign up, "Sunset Blvd," and he's wearing a fedora, has a new bottle of whiskey and new cigars. And snacks. He says he needs a Keurig coffee maker. LOL. But, seriously, that’s not a bad idea.

Two Words I Love To See In The Same Sentence -- Especially If I'm Invested In the Company -- "Explosive" and "Growth" -- March 29, 2024

Locator: 46862TECH.

TSMC: hiring spree, link here.

Elon: say what you want about Elon, but he is absolutely incredible. This will be available to all on twitter next week.

This reminds me of "file sharing" days in 1994 and Moxilla, founded in 1998, and then universal browsers only a few years later. The browser story, HTML, URL universe moved at light-speed.

Now we're about to see the same in the chatbot universe. I marvel at the CNBC talking heads that still don't get it. 

These guys get it: link here.

Yes, I know this is "PR," and "marketing 101" but still ....

Due to insatiable demand for the world’s most advanced microchips, TSMC is on a hiring spree.

Successfully surfing wave after wave of tech industry trends, the contract chipmaker aims to swell its ranks from 77,000 to 100,000 over the next few years, according to the company’s SVP of human resources, Laura Ho (via CNN).

Ho says this explosive growth means not only a need to change hiring methods but also to adjust the work culture and find a new way of training the rapid inflow of new employees.

Finding and training talented employees TSMC was once well-known for its buddy system for new engineers. A new employee would shadow an experienced hand to move beyond book smart and become factory smart.

However, things have already been changing, as TSMC employees have already rapidly grown in number from 56,000 at the end of 2020 to 77,000, according to the latest figures.

To adapt, TSMC created a new dedicated training factory in Taichung, dubbed the Newcomer Training Center. The Center features 20 main machines and 12 measurement and ancillary machines for instructional purposes, delivering almost on-the-job training without risks to products.

This new training process takes around eight weeks to deliver “a solid foundation.”

Quick: name one industry, one sector, one company that will increase its workforce by the same percentage. For TSMC, 56,000 in 2000 to 100,000 by the end of the decade.  

(100 - 56)/56 = 80% growth.

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Back of the Proverbial Envelope


 
  • Currently:
    • revenue per employee: $606,791.
    • market cap: $630 billion
    • market cap per employee: $8.4 million
    • P/E: 27
  • Working backwards (or forward), 100,000 employees
    • 100,000 * 8.4 million = $840 billion
    • $630 billion / $135 = 4.667
    • $840 billion / x = 4.667
    • x = $180
  • Disclaimer
    • much simpler ways of doing this; many other ways to approach this; and, I often make simple arithmetic mistakes, but I get $180. What's the current price target by analysts?
    • this is not an investment site; I was just curious 
    • usual disclaimers apply

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The Movie Page

Side-by-side: Sunset Boulevard and Citizen Kane

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First Day of Spring

Wow, what a beautiful day. The door to the balcony is wide open. The early morning wind has died down.  The landscapers are trimming the hedges; lots of noise. But absolutely a great day -- truly the first day of spring. 

It reminds me of all those TV sitcoms I watched as a kid, like Dennis the Menace, although I only saw it when we visited Storm Lake, Iowa, to see our maternal grandparents. In Williston in 1960, when I was nine years old, we only got NBC and Storm Lake, got CBS

Reflecting on that, my elementary school years were framed by a) Hollywood, what I saw on television; and, b) the six-foot snow drifts in Williston during the winter (and sometimes autumn and spring; rarely summer). 

So, it was quite ironic / coincidental that after 20 years of imagining southern California, I ended up living there for four years followed by another three years in northern California.

Three Things That "Bugged" Me Yesterday: Crypto Fraud Story, The Baltimore Bridge Story, And The Giddiness About That Chinese EV -- March 29, 2024

Locator: 46861B.

Before we get started, most California drivers now seeing this at their corner service station:

  • easy to find higher prices; hard to find better prices.

Now, back to regular programming.

Nothing is perfect, but for all those folks complaining about twitter, it's amazing how useful it is. 

1. I was watching the "crypto fraud story" live yesterday and I had the same thoughts about the parents. Creepy. But didn't understand why. Just a gut feeling. Now this from twitter.

2. That Baltimore Bridge story. The blame / fault lies here: the Baltimore Port Authority not requiring tugboats to take these ships through the channel. Period. Dot. US government and state agencies regulate the oil industry "to death" as they say -- remember the government's lawsuit against CLR for two dead ducks a decade ago -- and yet even with a ship that had reported previously run into a bridge before (needs to be fact-checked) no tugboats required for this behemoth sailing through a channel for being particularly dangerous. Officially: the Maryland Port Administration.

3. I posted it yesterday, but for the life of me, I don't understand the giddiness, enthusiasm, whatever one wants to call it with regard to that affordable Chinese EV. Did folks not read how the company was able to get the price $4,000 below a Tesla, which by the way, had already cut its prices? Let's post the screenshot again:

3a. Has anyone seen an uglier car? This takes me back to the Citroën, c. 1975.

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The Book Page

My reading for the weekend. 


Ordered Wednesday evening; arrived Thursday, yesterday.

Nothing added to my credit card -- more than enough cash back to pay for this book. In fact, I generally don't pay anything for books. Will add more cash back when I book flights this year.

This book -- Annotated Emerson -- is "identical in format as my "annotated Wuthering Heights. Top shelf. Can't wait to share all this with Sophia starting in middle school -- two years from now.

 

CPE Numbers Live — Everything In Line — One Word: Goldilocks -- March 29, 2024

Locator: 46860ECON.

41-minute video: live and now re-playing. Awesome. Good for CNBC to have done this.Truly incredible. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMC5goa2ft8.

Best analysis begins at 8:25 on the video. Really, really good. One word: Goldilocks.

Re-live it "live" at 18:58!  Personal spending up 0.8! A stellar number; best number since January, 2023; everyone really, really excited by that number. Seems to have completely surprised everyone.

Steve Liesman: amazed by spending numbers. Taking inflation into account, real spending was up an incredible 0.4. All things being equal, this will raise GDP. Commerce Dept has already raised GDP estimates. 


Gotta love the headlines above, but one of the five is most entertaining. Hint: TET is British. Europe and British economies have tanked. 

But wow, 3..4% GDP and inflation running in line with expectations. Whatever happened to all that talk about a recession?

Real spending numbers support Liz Sonders' chart on corporate profits.

41-minute video: live and now re-playing. Awesome. Good for CNBC to have done this.Truly incredible. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMC5goa2ft8.

Numbers came in “in-line.”

General consensus: two cuts in 2024. Many disagree. Again, soft landing or “no landing” which I call a “touch and go” is still the consensus. Market suggests this with another S&P record high yesterday.

Everything suggests not much is going to change very soon. 

GDP estimate raised again by Commerce Dept.

Discussion pivots to labor report next week.

Better: talking about growth and wages and jobs and not Fed rate.

All-in-all, great news for investors. Nothing in report to scare investors Monday.

Resilient US consumer. 

Diane Swonk at13.00 minutes is "must-listen." Social security bump very helpful. Two-thirds of Americans feel "richer" than last year. Mentioning social security right in line with my thoughts here. For a huge sub-segment of the over-65 group, that increase in social security was absolutely not needed and goosed the economy overall. 

At the end of the day, Steve Liesman says JPow is having a "good Friday." In fact, JPow is having a "great Friday."

By Monday, this will all be old news and forgotten.