Saturday, April 20, 2019

New Williston Airport -- April 12, 2019 -- Update

On schedule for an October 10, 2019, opening:

Craziness At The New York Times

The New York Times reports the population of North America to be in the billions. 

Link here. 

E&P -- Market Cap -- April 20, 2019

Time to take a look at market cap for some E & P companies (rounded):
  • XOM: $345 billion
  • CVX: $230 billion 
  • COP: $75 billion
  • EOG: $60 billion
  • OXY: $50 billion
  • APC: $30 billion)
  • CLR: $20 billion 
  • APA: $15 billion
  • WLL: $2.5 billion
  • JAG: $2 billion 
  • OAS: $2 billion
  • NOG: $1 billion (non-operator)
Disclaimer: there are likely to be factual and/or typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Featured Music This Week: Chris Isaak

I've been in a Chris Isaak mood all week. That mood may continue for another week.

You Owe Me Some Kind Of Love, Chris Isaak

First song on his 1986 album. 

The lyrics, typical Chris Isaak.

The music caught my attention:
  • the riff reminds me of something I've heard in a David Lynch movie, it seems (actually Twin Peaks comes to mind)
  • the bass
The producer of that album:
Erik Jacobsen (born May 19, 1940) is an American record producer, song publisher and artist manager. He is best known for his work in the 1960s with Tim Hardin, The Lovin' Spoonful, The Charlatans, Sopwith Camel, and later with Norman Greenbaum and Chris Isaak. Though semi-retired, Jacobsen continues to manage many of his published songs and masters for various uses.

A Case For Apache -- April 20, 2019

April 20, 2019: could this be the next high-profile Permian takeover? From the linked article, the "takeout case for Apache":
Apache's stock popped nicely on the CVX/APC news, as did many shale players, but fell back a bit as the day wore on. I read nothing into that event.
Alpine High is a massive block of about 300K contiguous acres that has been estimated to contain 3 bn BBOE.
As you can see from the slides [at the linked site], the Alpine High development is skewed to Wet Gas. Wet gas is basically the heavier end of the hydrocarbon molecule with more carbons attached, making them heavier, and tending toward a liquid phase. Dry gas is defined as being 85% methane or better.
One of the things that makes the Permian so prolific is the thickness of hydrocarbon column, up to 6,000'. There are multiple pay horizons, with names like Bone Springs, Wolfcamp, Barnett, and Woodford. Apache has already identified over 5,000 drilling locations across this acreage, with about 75% of them targeting wet gas.  One of the things that's been a drag on Apache's stock was the limited take-off capacity for dry gas. Once Kinder Morgan's, Gulf Coast Express-GCX, line goes into service, later this year, those concerns go away. Apache was one of original subscribers to the GCX, 500 MMCF/D guaranteed take-off.
Cryogenic capacity is the next piece of the puzzle. To turn wet gas into dry gas the heavy ends are first concentrated and removed from the gas stream cryogenically. These units will come on stream this year. The billion or so dollars of capex that's been required to process wet gas has also been a drag on the stock. The market gives you nothing for investing for the future, it's only interested in what's happening now to produce profits.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Peak Shale Oil -- April 20, 2019

April 20, 2019: could this be the next high-profile Permian takeover? From the linked article:
Oil equities are under-valued at present by thirty or forty percent, taking the recent performance of the XOP index as an example, in relation to the price of oil. From the Dec. 24th, 2018 low, the XOP has regained about 30% of its pre-crash level, while oil has nearly doubled. Anadarko makes up about 2% of the XOP.
I posted this earlier, but am now looking at this article again with respect to these paragraphs:
We have been inundated with theories about shale peak-ing out in recent times. You've may have read them... the ones by Martenson and Berman stand out in particular. In this one, and in others very cogent arguments have been made, that growth trajectory of shale plays is in decline due to poorer rock quality than in the past. Some, like Jim Chanos posit a very dark interpretation of shale results so far, that's it all been a hoax. The words "Ponzi Scheme" are used frequently by the doom sayers.
It is not my intention to challenge any of these pundits squarely today. They may very well be right, time will tell. What I do want to address in this article is an element of market activity being ignored by the "doom crowd." The clever arguments put forward for shale slipping (crashing?) into decline, have managed to ignore one simple fact.
The shale-doom crowd chooses to ignore the obvious, and frankly, the most compelling pro-argument for shale that exists. Big Oil is committing resources to shale in droves.
Companies are falling over each other in the attempt to land big "Shale" fish, like Anadarko. And, in so doing have laid out ambitious growth plans for this resource. BP, (BP), ExxonMobil, (XOM), and now Chevron. What are they telling us by voting for shale with their capex dollars?
It's simple really. They are saying that their geophysical teams-which, let's acknowledge are the best in the business, have told them that with scale, they can wring more oil and gas for less money than any other equivalent investment.
What scale brings is a low base cost of production, which when combined with the high technology these companies can bring to bear on a project, turns into profits and free cash flow.
Here is what, Michael Wirth the chairman, of what many people regard as the smartest, best run oil operator in the business- Chevron, said regarding this transaction in a recent interview:
"This deal enables us to compete in any oil price environment, produce synergies from the combination of the two companies, and be accretive to earnings in the first year."
A point worth making, and one made by Mr. Wirth, was that it's not only Anadarko's shale acreage drawing their interest, but the global footprint of this company aligning so closely with theirs in deepwater and international. But make no mistake, Anadarko's shale acreage is the linchpin in this deal.

"Red Hot Permian Set To Jolt US Shale Output To New Reocrd" -- EIA -- Oilprice -- April 20, 2019

Link here. Data points from EIA's most recent "drilling productivity report":
  • there are seven key shale regions in the US
  • US shale expected to increase production by 80,000 bopd in April
  • US shale will hit a record 8.46 million bopd in May
  • the Permian will account for half of that monthly gain
    • will see production jump by 42,000 bopd
    • this would be a record high of 4.136 million bopd in May
    • this would place the Permian in the #3 spot in the world, behind Saudi Arabia (9.79 milion bopd) and Iraq (4.52 million bopd)
    • next milestone for the Permian: to become #2 in the world
  • the Niobrara: would add 22,000 bopd, to 764,000 bopd in May; second largest growth after the one in the Permian
  • other regions to see increased production: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Appalachia region
  • Anadarko: may slip a bit next month (May)
  • total US crude oil production:
    • February, 2019: 11.8 million bopd
    • March, 2019: 12.1 million bopd
    • 2019 average: 12.4 million bopd
    • 2020 average: 13.2 million bopd 
Reminder: EIA dashboards:

Where America Is Not Great -- USA Today -- April 20, 2019

This is a great, great example of a story with no context, no analysis. From USA Today, "counties where the American dream may already be dead."

Disclaimer: in a long list like this there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Fifty counties across the US were cited as poverty-stricken.
  • South Dakota: Dewey County, Todd County (#2 on the list), Oglala Lakota County (#1 on the list)
  • North Dakota: Rolette County (#47 on the list), Sioux City County (#3 on the list),
  • Montana: Big Horn County, Glacier County,  
  • Mississippi: Quitman County, Grenada County, Washington County, Oktibbeha County, Bolivar County, Sunflower County, Tallahatchie County, Hinds County, Leflore County, Claiborne County, Tunica County, Humphreys County, Coahoma County,
  • Georgia: Early County, Spalding County, Baldwin County, Terrell County, Sumter County, Hancock County, Clarke County,
  • North Carolina: Hoke County, Guilford County, Robeson County, Scotland County, Forsyth County,
  • Louisiana: East Baton Rouge Parish, East Carroll Parish, Orleans County 
  • Alabama: Macon County, Greene County
  • South Carolina: Fairfield County, Allendale County
  • Virginia: Roanoke City, Richmond City
  • Alaska: Nome Census Area, Kusilvak Census Area, 
  • New Jersey: Atlantic County
  • Arkansas: Crittenden County
  • Florida: Gadsden County
  • Missouri: St Louis City
  • Michigan: Genesee County
  • Wisconsin: Menominee County
  • New Mexico: McKinley County
The two counties in North Dakota are pretty much federal plantations. I can't speak for the other counties and parishes on the list but I bet much of the same. It is interesting that not one county in the former "Indian Territory" made the list.

Too Much Money

Earlier this week, we spotted a brand new bright yellow BMW i3.

An EV.

$45,000, list price.

Range: 153 miles on a full charge.

Re-charging: one hour for 23 miles.

Acceleration: 0 - 60, eight seconds.
From wiki: Present performance cars are capable of going from 0 to 60 mph in under 6 seconds, while exotic cars can do 0 to 60 mph in between 3 and 4 seconds, whereas motorcycles have been able to achieve these figures with sub-500cc since the 1990s.
The fastest automobile in 2015 was the Porsche 918 Spyder, which is a hybrid vehicle taking 2.2 seconds to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph.
Some car manufacturers and magazines in the United States use a "1 feet (sic) rollout", which means that the timer is only started once the car has traveled 11.5 inches, reducing the measured time by up to 0.3 second.
  • Honda Civic, 2011: 9.5 seconds, 0 - 60.
Too Much Money

From Bloomberg: a $255 billion EV debate is raging among the world's biggest automakers.
A $255 billion debate is raging among the world’s biggest automakers. Some think electric cars made by companies besides Tesla Inc. stand the chance to be hits, while others think they’ll fail to really sell.
Toyota Motor Corp. may have kicked off the green-car movement with its Prius hybrid more than 20 years ago, but the company is not nearly as bullish as rivals about the American consumer embracing EVs. Bob Carter, executive vice president of sales for Toyota Motor North America, said at a conference affiliated with this week’s New York auto show that batteries are still too expensive and place plug-in cars out of reach for many buyers.
“On electrification, we see an opportunity in North America, but it’s much further down the road,” Carter said Tuesday at a forum co-hosted by the National Automobile Dealers Association.
“The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000. The economics are not there.”

United Van Lines Annual Movers Study -- 2018

2018 United Van Lines National Movers Study.

Some data points:
  • New Jersey tops list of outbound moves while western and southern states lead inbound moves
  • Vermont: the state with the highest percentage of inbound migration
  • Oregon: #2 -- for inbound migration
  • top states for inbound were mountain west and west:
  • Oregon
  • Idaho
  • Nevada
  • Washington
  • South Dakota
  • Arizona (joined the list of top inbound states in 2018)
  • southern states leading the list for inbound:
  • South Carolina
  • North Carolina
  • outbound: northeast --
  • New Jersey
  • Connecticut
  • New York
  • outbound, midwest:
  • Illinois
  • Kansas
  • Ohio
  • Iowa
  • reasons for move
  • Idaho: #1 -- largest influx of new residents desiring a lifestyle change (everyone I talk to in California desiring to move mentions Idaho; not good news for Idaho
  • New Mexico: #1 -- largest influx for retirees
  • California, special note:
“Unlike a few decades ago, retirees are leaving California, instead choosing other states in the Pacific West and Mountain West. We’re also seeing young professionals migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Seattle.”
  • other states:
  • North Dakota: made neither the top ten list for outbound nor inbound
  • Massachusetts: #7 for outbound
  • Montana: #9 for outbound
  • New York: #4 for outbound (and they aren't moving to New Jersey)
  • New Jersey: has made the top 10 outbound list for the past ten years, moved up one spot this year; now #1 on the outbound list
  • new additions to outbound list: Iowa, Montana, Michigan
The Movie Page

 I caught the TMC midnight movie earlier this morning: Calamity Jane starring Doris Day.

Wow, I could not believe how racist/ethnist this movie was. It was embarrassing. There was no mention by the host prior to the movie about the absolute inappropriateness of this movie. Period. Dot. No redeeming value whatsoever. Had this been a movie on African-Americans in the deep south, Doris Day would be a scandal. Instead it was set in Deadwood, SD, and every cliche about the American Indian was used. Despicable.

Both my wife and I hated the movie. I doubt she caught the racism -- she wasn't watching all that closely -- but I did remark that the movie was quite remarkable in the fact Doris Day pretty much carried the entire movie with her singing, dancing, and acting. Pretty much a one-woman show with all the other characters on stage not much more than her audience.

The Old Navy Page

Wow, Sophia and I had a great time last (Friday) night. We started out at McDonald's. She had not been there in ages and this was a huge treat. We were there about 90 minutes: Sophia loves PlayPlace and all her newfound friends. Then, off to shopping.

Sophia needed a new light jacket for the cool evenings we are still experiencing in north Texas.

We went to Target. Nothing.

Then, Burlington Coats. Nothing.

Then, Walmart. Nothing.

This is not the time of year to be looking for coats in Texas. LOL.

We backtracked home. I spotted an Old Navy story. This was about 7:30 p.m. The store was packed
with customers. "Everything" in the store was 50% off; items not 50% off had a 20% discount.

We found the perfect light jacket. We both loved it so much, we got an identical jacket, but in a different color.

Then, the accessories: a pair of sunglasses and a new purse.

On the way home said she "wished she could be fours years old forever."

Seriously. That's what she said.

Note how she places her sunglasses when she is not wearing them.