Natural Gas Fill Rate -- July 23, 2020

Link here.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- June 25, 2020

Updates

June 27, 2020: link to EIA, US natural gas storage capacity.

June 27, 2020: see comments. From a reader:

Footnote: it was the most natural gas added to storage during any June week in the modern record, and the 3rd largest natural gas storage increase in the past decade...

Natural gas prices fell to a 25-year low after the report on fears we'd run out of cavern space to store the stuff...

Original Post

 
Link here.

After report, natural gas plunges to all-time low.
Looks like the shaded part of the graph may soon change.

Rigs Don't Matter -- Natural Gas -- June 19, 2020

I have no idea what the oil and gas rig count is but I understand it's down a bit year-over-year.

But that doesn't seem to affect the natural gas fill rate.  Again, this should not be taken out of context.

Link here.

Cuts -- April 9, 2020

Updates

Later, 5:32 p.m. CT: OPEC+ confirms cut of 10 million bopd in May, June, 2020. Will US see another one or two million of decreased production?

Original Post

OPEC+ rumors.  Link here.

• Cuts could be as large as 20M bbl/day, Reuters reports, citing an unidentified Russian source and an OPEC source. 

Natural gas fill rate, link here.

From RBN Energy the other day:

In line with my thoughts about Oasis.

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The Literature Page

Middle Earth.

Tolkien first used the term "Middle-earth" in the early 1930's in place of the earlier terms "Great Lands", "Outer Lands", and "Hither Lands" to describe the same region in his stories.

"Middle-earth" is specifically intended to describe the lands east of the Great Sea (Belegaer), thus excluding Aman, but including Harad and other mortal lands not visited in Tolkien's stories.

Many people apply the name to the entirety of Tolkien's world or exclusively to the lands described in The Hobbit, The Lord of the Rings, and The Silmarillion.

In ancient Germanic and mythology, the universe was believed to consist of multiple interconnected physical worlds (in Nordic mythology, in West Germanic and English mythology).

The world of Men, the Middle-earth, lay in the centre of this universe.

The lands of Elves, gods, and Giants lay across an encircling sea.

The land of the Dead lay beneath the Middle-earth. A rainbow bridge, Bifrost Bridge, extended from Middle-earth to Asgard across the sea. An outer sea encircled the seven other worlds (Vanaheim, Asgard, Alfheim, Svartalfheim, Muspellheim, Niflheim, and Jotunheim).

In this conception, a "world" was more equivalent to a racial homeland than a physically separate world.

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Bird Watching

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- February 13, 2020

Link here.

Notes From All Over, Part 1-- The $12-Lego-Kobe NBA Minifigure Worth $100 -- January 29, 2020

First things first: the other day I was talking about Lego. I was not aware that Lego had a license with the NBA and sold NBA basketball player mini-figures. These figures go for about $10/mini-figure. Our local "Bricks & Minifigs" has about six mini-NBA figures, each priced about $12. Last week the "Kobe Bryant" figure was selling for $10 - $12. Today? $75.

See eBay link.

Next up: CBO report out. It appears the revenue raised through the "Trump tax cut" has completely paid for the tax cuts. If that makes sense. A report heard on the run. Need to see hard copy of the report.

Now, back to oil and natural gas.

The monthly natural gas fill rate, link here: could we see a new five-year maximum?

Natural Gas Stores Increasing In The Middle Of Winter -- January 23, 2020

Natural gas fill rate, link here.

Pay some time looking at this graphic; it's rather amazing on so many levels.

Quick! What month is it? What season is it?

Answers: January. Winter. 

And natural gas stores are already starting to increase. [See first comment: I was wrong: natural gas stores continue to decrease, just not as fast as the previous week.]

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- November 21, 2019

 Link here.

Meanwhile, up in the great white north:

Notes From All Over -- Part 4-- November 7, 2019

US natural gas: 



 

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Permian Pipeline

Link here. 

• Agua Blanca natural gas pipeline
• expansion to double capacity approved
• Delaware Basin expansion 
• currently: a 36-inch diameter, 1.4 billion cubic fpd; 90 miles
• expansion: a 42-inch; capacity to more than 3 billion cfpd
• WhiteWater Midstream, LLC
• JV partner: MPLX LP 
• in addition, WhiteWater and MPLX okay'ed the 458-mile Whistler Pipeline that will link to Agua Blanca
• natural gas to the Texas Gulf Coast

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Pakistan Coal

Coal is dead, long live coal. I don't think this is an outlier:

Clearing Off The Desktop -- October 19, 2019

Should we start with the price of gasoline in California?

Natural gas inventories and "fill rate":

Schlumberger in deep trouble:

Flaring in the Bakken:

And, finally, rig count:

Natural Gas Prices Slide To 3-Week Low; New Yorkers Won't See Benefit -- September 26, 2019

Link here.

Meanwhile:

Natural gas prices slide 3% to a three-week low. Link here.

Natural-gas prices fell Thursday after government data showed U.S. stockpiles rose more than analysts expected.

Front-month natural-gas futures declined 3% to $2.428 per million British thermal units, a three-week low, after the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that natural-gas inventories last week surged by 102 billion cubic feet, compared with the 89 billion cubic feet that analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted.

“We had thought the number would be smaller because a lot of the country has been experiencing unusual, late-season heat,” said Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates. Natural-gas demand tends to rise when more people use their air conditioners in the summer and heaters in the winter.

By the way, when one reads the articles very, very closely regarding the situation in New York City / New Jersey, one gets the feeling there is much more to this story than simply a bunch of rabble-rousers who are trying to stop expansion of a pipeline where there are already many pipelines. Something tells me there's a bit of "something else" going on. Whenever my granddaughters ask me something they don't understand, I tell them to google it or follow the money. In this case (the NYC/New Jersey natural gas pipeline story) I suggest following the money.

SoCal NatGas Injections At Risk -- Platts -- August 29, 2019

The graph is a bit hard to read at this link but it appears to be a bit more interesting than usual.

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Cognitive Dissonance

Being reported once again:

• major genetic link to same sex behavior, but no "gay" gene
• comment: most likely polygenetic morphism, like most other conditions

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Barely Keeping Up -- August 23, 2019

Link here. Record production and barely keeping up with US consumer demand. What a great country!

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Sophia

Until the after-school students arrive, Sophia is now the oldest child at her Tutor Time, and she loves it.

 

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The Sports Page

Wow, the NBC Golf channel is doing an incredibly bad job televising the FedEx tour champiosnhip.

They are spending more time covering "big names" practicing and very little time actually providing video of live golf.

Very, very disappointing. Possibly the worse coverage I've seen in years.

And if you like commercials, NBC Golf channel is the place to be. Wow. What a disappointment. I guess this is what happens when both Tiger and Phil miss the cut.

Later: and now, barely into the second round, the tournament is "called" due to thunderstorms.  This may just rank as one of the lowest-watched PGA FedEx championships ever.

Interestingly, I have yet to see a FedEx commercial.

So, back tomorrow.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- July 25, 2019; Another Great Jobs Report And It Won't Even Get Any Coverage

Jobs. Link here to first time unemployment claims --

• prior: 216K
• consensus: 219K
• actual: 206K
• so, first time unemployment claims drop by 10,000; consensus was for a jump of 3,000
• won't even get mainstream media coverage

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US Natural Gas

From twitter:

 
Natural gas fill rate, link here. Even with the glut of natural gas production in every oil and gas basin in the US, the country cannot keep up. Note the leveling off of the infill rate when it should be increasing:

 
From twitter today:

Bummer -- Gasoline Demand -- July 19, 2019

Updates

July 20, 2019: see comments. Nice comment from someone who really understands this stuff. Me? Not so much. LOL.

Original Post 

Link here.

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Natural Gas Fill Rate

Slight change in slope. Air conditioning?

Link here.

Think about it:

Think about it. Sure, Big Oil / Big NG is losing money on natural gas right. But America, as a country, is benefiting Big Time with all this cheap, dependable, dispatchable energy.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Still Below The 5-Year Average But Rising Fast -- July 11, 2019

Link here.

Rate of fill continues to be quite steep.

US Natural Gas Production On Pace For One Of Strongest Refill Seasons Since 1994 -- July 7, 2019

New natural gas links:

• traderscommunity: into the vortex: EIA reports +89 Bcf build in natural gas storage (the reader who sent me this link suggests this site posts NG data every week); this looks like the "front page" for that link: https://traderscommunity.com/index.php/oil-energy/. 

The reader also noted this EIA note on US natural gas, dated July 2, 2019:

With the fast start to this injection season, 2019 is on pace to see one of the strongest refill seasons since 1994, even if the rate of increase slows.

For example, if net injections into storage match the five-year (2014–2018) average for the remainder of the refill season, cumulative net injections will total 2,399 Bcf by the end of October. If remaining refill season net injections equal the most recent five-year average:

• the 2019 refill season would be the fifth-largest refill season since 1994<>
• net injections for the season would exceed the five-year average fill by 16%
• working gas stocks would total 3,529 Bcf at the end of the refill season—only about 5% lower than the five-year average

The EIA site for above data: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html. 

Random Comment On US Natural Gas Inventories -- June 17, 2019

A reader shows us again how incredible the natural gas "fill rate" has been so far this year. See this post for background.

How fast is the natural gas fill rate this year? Really fast.

For the week ending March 22, 2019 -- just a few weeks ago, US natural gas inventories were 20% below inventories one year earlier.

By June 7, 2019, most recent data available, US natural gas inventories are now 10% above those of last year.

There's a reason President Trump is unhappy with Europe linking with Russia for natural gas (Nord Stream 2). The US needs markets for all the natural gas it is producing.

The Nation's Natural Gas Fill Rate -- This May Be A Record-Setting Year -- June 16, 2019

This is quite incredible: spend some time on this one, from a reader, regarding the nation's natural gas fill rate:

"The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "

We've become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a record year... 

This came in as a comment to the post this past week regarding the NG fill rate. 

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Fairly Steep -- June 13, 2019

Updates

June 17, 2019: another way to look at the quickness of the fill rate -- see comments -- 

Another way of looking at how fast inventories recovered this year would be to compare them to last year... the storage report for the week ending March 22nd showed 2019 supplies 20.5% below those of 2018, but as you've noted above, by June 7th, 2019 supplies were 10% above those of last year...  

June 16 2019: see first comment -- reader suggests just how "steep" this NG fill rate is --

Your headline should read "fairly steepest."

Here's what I have: "The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "

We've become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a record year... 

Original Post

Link here.

A pretty steep curve. Inventory 10% over that of a year ago.

Z4 also notes "near Mexican export and LNG export records."

Forecast almost perfect: 102 vs 111 and I had actually seen a forecast of 108 yesterday, so 102 not all that far off.