Monday, May 19, 2025

The Stealthy Wealthy -- WSJ -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48661ARCHIVES.

 Updates

Later, 11:11 p.m. CT: the tea leaves suggest a one-two punch. The sixth industrial revolution suggests that the US economy is going to be fascinating to watch over the next three or four years. The gap between the US and the rest of the world, particularly the EU, will widen significantly. But the immediate "pop" will occur when the tax and spending bill is signed by Trump -- or when passed by both houses of Congress.

Original Post 

A must-read.

Link here

From the linked article:

Olson’s annual income running his flooring-equipment company puts him in the top 1% of earners in the U.S., or people who as of 2022 made at least $550,000, excluding capital gains. He expects Minnesota-based National to bring in roughly $50 million in revenue this year, after recently buying an Australian manufacturer. His family’s luxuries include two Land Rovers, private school for the kids and a month-long European summer vacation. [Derek Olson is the CEO of National Flooring Equipment; makes machines that rip up flooring, like carpeting in elementary schools.]

“We call it the stealthy wealthy,” said Owen Zidar, a Princeton University economist who has studied the group with University of Chicago economist Eric Zwick. 

Their analysis of anonymized tax data from 2000 through 2022 suggests the importance of such business ownership to the U.S. economy has grown. The share of income that ownership generates has increased to 34.9% in 2022 from 30.3% in 2014 for the top 1% earners.

It has increased even more at the topmost levels. The top 0.1% highest-earners saw 43.1% of their income come from such business ownership in 2022, compared with 37.3% in 2014. (The minimum income threshold in 2022 to qualify for the top 0.1% of earners was $2.3 million, according to Zidar.) 

Zidar and Zwick attribute the growth of this group to tax cuts in recent decades for such business owners and low interest rates that have boosted company valuations. The number of such business owners worth $10 million or more, adjusted for inflation, has more than doubled since 2001, to 1.6 million as of 2022.

One example:

David MacNeil, 66, founder of car-accessories maker WeatherTech, made his fortune on car floor mats. He worked as a tool-and-die maker, dropped out of college and sold luxury cars. He rented a car on a trip to Scotland in 1989 and immediately noticed its floor mats. Thick, and with a border preventing water and mud from running off, the rubber mats were superior to anything he had seen in the U.S. 

MacNeil called the English manufacturer when he was back home in Chicago and eventually worked out a deal to buy a 20-foot shipping container of the black mats to sell in the U.S., taking out a second mortgage on his home to do so.

“By the end of ’91 I made $40,000. By the end of ’92 I made $160,000. By the end of ’93 I made $400,000,” recalled MacNeil, who by that time was married and a father. “While all this was going on, if you called my 800 number at three in the morning, you know who would answer it? I would.”

Another:

Larry Fleming, 80, a Wendy’s franchisee, made his money in burgers and then beer. The tipping point for focusing on beverages came when the Muskogee, Okla., beer distributor he had bought in 1977 started outearning the fast-food restaurants he had bought a little earlier. Fleming sold his fast-food business in 2017—it numbered 43 restaurants by then—for more than $50 million, including the real estate. 

Fleming’s beverage distribution company, LDF Sales and Distributing, sells Coors, Miller and other products to roughly the eastern halves of Oklahoma and Kansas. He has grown LDF partly by buying distribution rights and other distributors. The company has about 64% market share in Oklahoma and annual sales approaching $250 million. 

“Any time two out of three beers going out of a restaurant or grocery store are yours, that’s a good thing,” Fleming said.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Correcting An Entry For The NDIC Daily Activity Report Dated May 15, 2025

Locator: 48660B.

There was a typographical error in the Daily Activity Report for May 15, 2025. Link here

I assume the NDIC will eventually correct it. It does not matter from what I see. It's correct on the scout tickets.

The NDIC lists the same name for two different permits. Both permits #41919 and #41920 have the same name according to NDIC's Daily Activity Report: 

  • 41919, loc, GO-Barb-157-97-3523H-5.

In fact, that's the name for #41919, correct as recorded by the NDCI, but #41920 should be:

  • 41920, loc, GO-Barb-LE-157-97-3523H-1.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Gemini, YouTube, Albert Einstein, And Brigitte Bardot -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48659ARCHIVES.

They're listening: this is truly uncanny. I've talked about it occasionally on the blog. I could give examples day in and day out but it would suggest that I'm paranoid, and, of course, I'm not. I love technology and I have no trouble with the thought -- and it's more than a thought -- that Alexa is listening to me 24/7. We have an Amazon Echo (or whatever they're called now) in each of our rooms. We don't ask Alexa many questions but she is always there when we need her. 

On the other hand, unless we turn that particular function off, Alexa is always listening to us.

Tonight, I was interested in listening to some music; my wife was not, so I put the headphones and opened the YouTube app.

Wow. There were four YouTube suggestions at the top, followed by a number of additional suggestions. The top four suggestions were separated by a solid line from the additional suggestions.

Of the four top YouTube suggestions, three of them were no surprise.

The first was one I listen to almost every day.

The next two were of Sina-Drums -- someone whom I used to listened to a year ago (or perhaps longer) and then quit listening to her. But last night I was curious if Sina was still around, and so I searched for some YouTube videos of the "new" Sina. 

Today, no surprise, two of the top four YouTube suggestions were for the new Sina, or "Sina-Drums.

Now, it gets creepy or spooky. Except I think it's amazing. The fourth suggestion was for a 49-minute documentary of Albert Einstein. To the best of my knowledge, in my thirty (?) years of listening to / watching YouTube videos, I have never, never, never watched or even searched for a YouTube video on physics, much less, specifically, Albert Einstein.

So, there it was. One of the top four YouTube recommendations was for a 49-minute document of Albert Einstein. What's going on? That clearly was not "an accident."

So, the dot-to-dot connection? Earlier this afternoon I posted a blog on the year 1905. I was looking up some obscure Supreme Court ruling in 1905 -- that's a story in itself.

Having finished the Supreme Court case, I was curious. What would AI say about "1905" -- I knew that was the "miracle year" for Albert Einstein and I was curious how AI would cover it. 

And I posted that, also, see the link above. 

Alphabet (Google) owns YouTube, and my blog is hosted by Alphabet (Google). And there's the connection.

So, no it has nothing to with Alexa and Amazon but ...

So, Alphabet (Google) AI (Gemini) is tracking across all its websites, and probably all websites, and connected my brief mention of 1905 on my obscure Bakken blog and then inserted a link on YouTube regarding Albert Einstein that AI thought might interest me. 

Scary? Creepy? Not for me. I love it. I also know Gemini will send me targeted ads. Thirty years ago, I used to get ads all the time for a male medication I won't mention here. Some years ago, I got an ad for that medication for the last time and haven't seen an ad for it since. I prefer targeted ads. 

Just for the fun of it, I'm going to type in a new book that just came out [The Annotated Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzerald, edited by James L. W. West III, c. 2025] to see if I get targeted ads for this book. LOL.

Nope, I never get ads for books, so I will post "Mazda CX-50" and see if I start getting targeted ads for the Mazda CX-50.

Oh, that reminds me, our oldER granddaughter is in the market for a Subaru. 

By the way, if interested, YouTube has a video of Brigitte Bardot with scenes from your movies, including some full nude scenes of Ms Bardot from one (or two or three?) of her movies.

Which obviously leads to the next question? Was Ms Bardot ever featured in Playboy. It seems I recall she was. 

AI: Playboy often included images of Bardot typically from existing photo shoots or film stills ... but [Brigitte Bardot] never posed specifically for Playboy in an official or exclusive shoot.

So, there you have it. Ten minutes of your life you will never get back. 

Mambo Italiano. Ysabella Brave. Link here.

EOG -- Shale -- The Middle East -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48658B.

To put this in perspective, we've just been told that this calendar year, 2025, will be the "peak year for shale oil." 

From oilprice.com:

EOG Resources has had three chief executive officers (CEOs) since its establishment as an independent company in 1999:

  1. Mark G. Papa (1999–2013)

    Mark G. Papa was the founding CEO of EOG Resources following its separation from Enron in 1999. He led the company through its formative years, establishing it as a major player in the U.S. oil and gas industry. Papa stepped down as CEO in 2013 and resigned from the board in December 2014.

  2. William R. “Bill” Thomas (2014–2021)

    Bill Thomas succeeded Papa as Chairman and CEO in January 2014. With over 36 years at EOG and its predecessor companies, Thomas guided the company through a period of significant growth, particularly in the development of unconventional shale resources.

  3. Ezra Y. Yacob (2021–present)

    Ezra Yacob became CEO and a member of the board in October 2021. He joined EOG in 2005 and held various geoscience and leadership positions before being promoted to President in January 2021. Yacob holds degrees in geology and an MBA, and has been instrumental in advancing EOG’s operational and environmental initiatives.

These leaders have each played pivotal roles in shaping EOG Resources into one of the leading independent oil and gas producers in the United States.

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The Book Page

In the current issue of The New York Review of Books, May 15, 2025, there is a great review / essay by Jerome Groopman regarding measles. The two books discussed:

Booster Shots: The Urgent Lessons of Measles and the Uncertain Future of Children's Health, Adam Ratner, c. 2025; and, So Very Small: How Humans Discovered the Microcosmos, Defeated Germs -- and May Still Lose the War Against Infectious Disease, Thomas Levenson, c. 2025.

The background re: RFK, Jr., tells us just how bad his nomination / confirmation as secretary of Health and Human Services was. The good news: he has moderated his position. He won't ban childhood vaccinations but will make them optional, based on parents' choice. 

We still have ivermectin.

And, so it goes.

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The Hur Tapes

It's important to note that the subtitles had a major typo: "her" was supposed to be "HUR." Makes a huge difference. 

Link here.

Jill trying to save her husband's legacy. 

They even used his diagnosis for political reasons. They came close to stealing another election from Trump. We may never know how close they came. Also, sweet irony that RFK, Jr., is the secretary for Health and Human Resources ... coming in just after the president who "launched a moonshot to cure cancer" was forced out of another term due to senility. It almost makes the nomination / confirmation of RFK, Jr., palatable. Almost.

An aside: unless we're talking about entry into the United States, any mandate for mandatory vaccination is a states' rights issue ... not a federal issue. 

Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905) was a landmark U.S. Supreme Court case that addressed the constitutionality of mandatory vaccinations. Here’s why it occurred in 1905 and what made it significant:

Background of the Case 

  • Henning Jacobson, a Swedish immigrant and minister in Massachusetts, refused to comply with a state law requiring smallpox vaccinations during an outbreak. 
  • Massachusetts had passed a law allowing local boards of health to mandate smallpox vaccinations to protect public health. 
  •  Jacobson argued that the law violated his personal liberty under the 14th Amendment. 

Why 1905? The timing relates to

  • Recurring Smallpox Outbreaks: The early 1900s saw multiple smallpox outbreaks. Vaccination was a key public health strategy, but also controversial. 
  • Rise of Public Health Laws: Governments were beginning to assert more power in regulating public health. This case tested the limits of that authority. 
  • Legal Challenge to State Power: Jacobson’s challenge raised constitutional questions about the balance between individual rights and collective safety—an issue still relevant today. 

Supreme Court Ruling (1905):

The Court ruled 7–2 in favor of Massachusetts, stating: 

“The liberty secured by the Constitution… does not import an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint.” They upheld that:

States can mandate vaccinations in the interest of public health and safety

Individual rights are not absolute when they threaten the wellbeing of others

Legacy:

  • This case set a key precedent for future public health laws, including during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • It remains a foundational case in the debate over public health vs. personal liberty. 

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What Else Happened in 1905?
1905: This Was A Huge Year

  • The Russo-Japanese war ends, 1904 - 1905
    • the Treaty of Portsmouth, mediated by US President Theodore Roosevelt ended the war.
  • The Russian Revolution of 1905
  • Albert Einstein's "Miracle Year": four groundbreaking papers published
    • photoelectric effect (quantum theory of light)
    • special theory of relativity
    • mass-energy equivalence (E=mc^2)
    • Brownian motion (proof of atoms' existence)
  • Sigmund Freud published Three Essays on the Theory of Sexuality, a foundational work in psychoanalysis.

The Bakken -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48657B.

Apple: Apple's AI is a complete and total mess; an unimaginable debacle. Long term it won't matter. The majority of Americans could / couldn't care less about AI right now. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.69.

Active rigs: 34.

Seven new permits, #41927 - #41933, inclusive --

  • Operators: Phoenix Operating (5); Formentera Operations (2)
  • Fields: Big Stone (Williams)/ Frazier (Divide)
  • Comments:
    • Formentera has permits for two Wildcat Hollow wells, SWSE 16-161-97; 
      • to be sited 500 FSL and 2351 / 2246 FEL;
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for five Willer wells, NWNW 28-159-98, 
      • to be sited 512 FNL and 790 / 940 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40173, 526, Slawson, Cyclone 2-21-16H, McKenzie County;

TA extension:

  • 15762, Foundation Energy, 9210 JV-P Barkland 2-H, Beaver Creek, Golden Valley,

From AI, Summarizing President Trump's Mideast Tour May, 2025

Locator: 48656SIRTRUMP.

During President Donald Trump’s Middle East tour from May 13–16, 2025, the U.S. secured a series of major agreements across defense, technology, aviation, and diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These deals, collectively valued at over $2 trillion, reflect a strategic pivot toward deeper economic and geopolitical alignment with Gulf nations.

Saudi Arabia (May 13–14):

  • Total Deal Value: Approximately $600 billion in U.S. investments, with potential increases up to $1 trillion
  • Key Agreements: 
    • Defense: A $142 billion arms deal, including advanced missile systems and F-15EX fighter jets
    • Technology & AI: Nvidia and AMD agreed to supply semiconductors to Humain, a Saudi AI firm, supporting a 500-megawatt AI data center initiative
    • Energy & Infrastructure: DataVolt committed to investing $20 billion into U.S. energy infrastructure and data centers
    • Aviation: Discussions included potential orders for Boeing aircraft by Riyadh Air
  • Diplomatic Developments: 
    • President Trump announced the lifting of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, signaling a willingness to normalize relations with Syria’s new government

Qatar (May 14–15):

  • Total Deal Value: Over $243.5 billion across sectors such as defense, aviation, infrastructure, and energy
  • Key Agreements:
    • Aviation: Qatar Airways signed an agreement to purchase up to 210 Boeing jets, marking the largest order in Boeing’s history
    • Defense: A $1 billion agreement with Raytheon for counter-drone capabilities and a $1 billion contract with General Atomics for MQ-9B unmanned aerial vehicles
    • Military Infrastructure: $1 billion allocated for enhancements to Al Udeid Air Base
  • Diplomatic Developments:
    • Qatar’s strategic repositioning as a key regional mediator was highlighted, including its role in brokering talks between adversaries

 United Arab Emirates (May 15–16):

  • Total Deal Value: The UAE committed to $1.4 trillion in U.S. investments over the next 10 years, focusing on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing
  • Key Agreements: 
    • Technology & AI: Establishment of the largest AI data center outside the U.S. in Abu Dhabi, in partnership with Emirati firm G42; update here
    • Aviation: Emirates and Flydubai are exploring significant Boeing aircraft orders, including 777X widebody jets and 737 models
  • Diplomatic Developments: 
    • President Trump was awarded the Order of Zayed, the UAE’s highest civil decoration, underscoring strengthened bilateral ties

Broader Diplomatic Shifts

  • Syria: The U.S. lifted all sanctions on Syria and engaged in direct talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, marking a significant policy shift
  • Iran: President Trump expressed openness to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, indicating a potential thaw in U.S.-Iran relations
  • Houthi Ceasefire: A ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthi movement was brokered by Oman, leading to a halt in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea 

Iraq: link here. From Charles Kennedy, so you know it's going to be good and it's going to be important.

Backlog For Natural Gas Turbines Surging -- RBN Energy -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48655B.

May 19, 2025: Taiwan supercomputer, Nvidia, announced. Link here. Superconductors are tracked here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.42.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, May 20, 2025: 49 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 346 for the year,
    • 40830, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-9,
  • Monday, May 19, 2025: 48 for the month, 148 for the quarter, 345 for the year,
    • 40684, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State 21X-16E,
  • Sunday, May 18, 2025: 47 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 344 for the year,
    • 41040, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16G,
    • 40861, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-3,
    • 40860, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-23-35H-2,
    • 40494, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 6B,
    • 37576, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 MBH,
  • Saturday, May 17, 2025: 42 for the month, 142 for the quarter, 339 for the year,
    • 41039, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16C,
    • 40542, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-154-93-0310H-8,

RBN Energy: backlog for natural gas turbines expends on surging demand, supply constraints. Archived.

There is tremendous buzz around natural-gas-fired turbines right now with backlogs reportedly stretching five years into the future due to supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and a surge in demand. The power generation industry is poised for a major upswing as data center development and overall electricity demand continue to accelerate, driving an even greater need for gas turbines. In today’s RBN blog, we will explore why gas turbines are so challenging to build and why there’s such a manufacturing backlog. 

As we noted recently in Only Happy When It Rains, there’s been a lot of talk the past few months about artificial intelligence (AI) and plans by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and others to build a slew of data centers — energy hogs that require vast amounts of around-the-clock electricity. Developers have been considering the full gamut of power-generation sources — everything from renewables to nuclear — but almost everyone understands that gas-fired plants will be a big part of the solution. A number of major gas producers and just about every big midstreamer with a gas pipeline network have been talking up their plans to serve these new power plants, and several gas-fired projects — many tied directly to data centers — have already been announced. And while there are other fundamental factors stimulating demand for gas-fired power generation, the high profile of the data center development has put a spotlight on the prospects for acquiring the turbines needed to run a gas-fired power plant, a bigger challenge than it might appear.

Before we get into what’s behind the turbine bottleneck, let’s start with some basics on turbines and how they work. A gas-fired turbine is a giant engine that transforms the energy in natural gas into electricity using a continuous, high-speed process. As shown in Figure 1 below, it works by taking in air, squeezing it tightly and mixing it with fuel — creating a fiery (but controlled) explosion in its combustion chamber. The blast of hot, high-pressure gases rushes through and spins the turbine’s blades. The spinner on the turbine turns a shaft connected to a generator (bottom portion of graphic), where the mechanical energy is then turned into electricity. It then heads to a transformer, which increases the voltage, and then to a transmission line. (High-voltage lines allow electricity to be transmitted over long distances with minimal losses.)

How a Natural Gas Turbine Generates Electricity

Figure 1. How a Natural Gas Turbine Generates Electricity. Source: Omaha Public Power District 

Southern Surge -- The Venezuelan Edition -- Update -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48654SOUTHERNSURGE.

Southern surge: link here.