AI Compute Power By Region -- Global -- Over The Years -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48839AI.

So many story lines.

Link here. Click on the link and watch the graph change from January 2019. For AI, the inflection point for the US / China, was early 2022. This is one explanation why.

The inflection point for the US / China was early 2022. For an explanation, click here.

The "compute power" comparisons, at a minimum, need to reflect regional populations. The tea leaves suggest, all things being equal, that China's relative percent will continue to fall, the EU will increase.

The big question is whether the gap between the US and the EU will widen or narrow. The population of the US is 330 million, and the population of the EU is 450 million.

Other questions/observations:

Japan's relative percentage.

The fact that Russia, South Korea, and Canada are not broken out separately is also noteworthy.

It will be interesting to see to what extent the relative percents change between the US and China.

US and China: four big factors differentiating the two countries with regard to AI:

• capitalism vs socialism;
• open society vs closed society;
• energy abundance; and,
• entrepreneurial spirit. 

Garbage in / garbage out. 

I'm not quite sure how to articulate this but folks might be able to understand what I'm trying to say.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are a type of AI model, specifically designed to understand and generate human-like text. They are trained on massive amounts of text data. Generally speaking, the data on which American LLMs are trained are generally considered fairly accurate and devoid of government interference. I would imagine the data that LLMs train on in China is much more heavily "influenced" or populated by government propaganda. Taken to the extreme, "all" data in North Korea would be heavily vetted by the central government before being released, and subject to manipulation. It's safe to say that in North Korea there's no chance that AI will amount to anything.

Amazing What The New York Times Found To Focus On With Regard To This Story: "To Cost The US More Than $160,000" -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48838CONTRACEPTIVES.

Link here.

I think there are much bigger issues here than the $160,000 it will cost to carry out this "initiative." 

For one thing, I would be asking why was the U.S.A.I.D. stockpiling almost $10 million worth of contraceptives in the first place? Why incur that extra cost in Belgium? Why not contract to sent contraceptives directly from supplier to user? One wonders how much of the $10 million was going to line the pockets of middlemen and middlewomen (would they be midwives)?

The next question: to what extent were African nations -- many of them Muslim -- interested in American-supplied contraceptives? 

And that's just a start.

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The Book Page

My Winter On The Nile, Charles Dudley Warner, c. 1876.

Six New Permits, Five Permits Renewed, Seven Permits Canceled, Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48837B.

At the close:

Trinidad back in the news, but before we get started, which has the bigger presence, Shell or XOM? Will now be tracked here.

Shell clearly has the substantially larger and operational oil/gas presence in Trinidad today—active production, processing, LNG, and government payments. ExxonMobil, conversely, is making an exploratory return; its impact depends entirely on the outcome of deepwater exploration yet to begin.

• XOM could invest as much as $22 billion, link here:
• this is a nice summary of that area from February, 2025; link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.17.

Active rigs: 35. Looking ready to get those wells drilled before winter sets it!

Six new permits, #42204 - #42209, inclusive;

• Operators: Silver Hill Energy (3); Murfin Drilling (3)
• Fields: Cottonwood (Burke County); St Anthony (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Murfin Drilling has permits for three Steffan wells, SESE 7-141-97, 
• to be sited 370 FSL and 280 / 340 FEL;
• Silver Hill Energy has permits for three wells, SWSW 4-158-92 (the Texas E, the Nebraska E, and the Minnesota E wells), 
• to be sited 453 FSL and 337 / 442 FWL.

Five permits renewed:

• BR: two Kirklandfill permits; three Morganfill permits.

Seven permits canceled:

• KODA Resources (4): four Bock permits, Divide County;
• BR (3): a Catalina and a Hawktail in Dunn County; and an Ole permit in McKenzie County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 40516, 1,274, BR, Keene 14-36 TFH, Dunn County;
• 41120, 489, Oasis, Sawtooth Federal 5202 24-30 6B, McKenzie County;
• 41205, 605, Silver Hill Energy, Ringneck W 159-94-11-23 3MBHX, Burke County.

DOGE Allowed Access To "Sensitive Information" -- Federal Judge -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48836DOGE.

DOGE allowed to access "sensitive information" -- Federal judge. Link here. OMG; we're all going to die -- NYTimes. 

Apple -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48835AAPL.

My chart of the day:

Still a long way to get back to its old highs, but wow, look at that market cap. Wasn't the market cap only $3 trillion just a few weeks ago?

What bothers me most about APPL? Well three things, all related:

• lousy dividend after all these years;
• sitting on way too much cash;
• doesn't appear to be wanting to put that cash to work.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

 

Headlines -- For The Archives -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48834ARCHIVES.

Some of the stories that caught my attention today:

• DOGE allowed to access "sensitive information" -- Federal judge. Link here. OMG; we're all going to die -- NYTimes.
  
• OKLO surges today. This is the reason why, link here. But links everywhere. 

Among so many big stories today -- and the week is just getting started -- does Trump ever sleep; does he ever quit moving -- the OKLO story is the big story today. Another public-private venture. Can the EU even begin to close the gap? Meanwhile, Putin destroying his country -- actually he needs Ukraine if he wants Russia to survive.

• Boeing: I thought the company had turned the corner. Link here. Deliveries tumble 20% in June. Trail Airbus.
  
• Micron and BigBear diverge. Link here. "Blue skies, all I see are blue skies."
• Chart of the day. OPEC has a problem. Link here.
  
• Perplexity -- Chrome. Link here.
  
• Apple pricing. Link here. Holding out for a hero.
• Holy mackerel: Apple's latest MacBook Pro with M4 is down to its lower price to date, but everything else is also on sale. Just in time for back-to-school. Link here.
• Groq -- the AI chipmaker -- not the chatbot -- slashes revenue projections. Link here.
  
• Natural gas: no longer "the bridge," but now the fuel of choice. The US wins. Link here.
• US electricity demand will grow by 31% over the next 15 years.
• The buzz; September rate cuts are coming after July inflation data. Shay Boloor. 
• But the Fed's Jeff Schmid just said, "nope." Not doing it. Not lowering rates. Need to wait for more data. Can't be seen to be giving into Trump.
• Kansas City; one of twelve votes.
  
• Google lets you  personalize your searches. Link here.
• Ford is leaning into "cheap," not good. What Wall Street has to say. Link here. Me? I will listen to ChatGPT on this one.
• Holy mackerel: the US exported 30% of the energy it produced in 2024. Link here.
• Spirit Airlines on the verge of going under.
  

Apple:

Market: S&P 500 jumps to record high. Cramer: inflation report gives the Fed a green light to cut rates Cramer now sees three rate cuts before the end of the year. JPow himself has said that once he starts cutting, he does multiple cuts, not just "one cut and then wait and see." I wonder what JPow is following the most: how the Fed historically reacts to data; or how he needs to react to Trump? I think Trump resides rent-free in JPow's mind just as Trump resides rent-free in the minds of almost every American and western European mover and shaker.

You know what got almost no headlines yesterday, and no headlines today? A federal judge says "the Epstein list" -- which now contains more names -- cannot be released. The judge, Trump, Bill and Hillary all know, but we can only guess. The reason the list is not being released: neither the press nor the pubic would be able to handle the truth.

OPEC: "Riyadh, We Have A Problem" -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48833B.

Until I saw this chart, I thought US oil production had flat-lined. 

Chart of the day, link here:

Holy Mackerel! Perplexity Just Made A $35-Billion Bid For Google's Chome -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48832AI.

An early link. More to follow.

Are we about ready to see a bidding war for Chrome? Will Apple jump in? 

My hunch:

• Apple: 20% chance Tim Cook makes a surprise announcement.
• Apple: 80% chance Tim Cook plays the long game. 

Perplexity is currently valued at ... remember, Perplexity is offering $34.5 billion for Chrome .... Perplexity is currently valued at $18 billion.

Perplexity AI, a privately held company, is currently valued at $18 billion.

This valuation follows a recent funding round that secured $100 million in new capital for the generative AI search startup.

This valuation represents significant growth for the company, as it had been valued at $14 billion just a few months prior, and $9 billion in December 2024.

Local -- The Texas Expansion Continues -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48831LOCAL.

Well, it took me to come up with a pithy counterpart to "the Bakken Revolution," and the "Sixth Industrial Revolution." It's "the Texas Expansion.

Today, another announcement of a huge local project: a new warehouse facility serving the needs of the DFW area has been completed: a 262,184-square-foot warehouse, along SH 26, SH 121 and I-635, across from Bass Pro Shops. and the Embassy Suites by Hilton Grapevine DFW.

Link here.

To put that in perspective:

The average size of an Amazon fulfillment center is around 800,000 square feet. These large warehouses are typically used for sorting, picking, packing, and shipping customer orders. While 800,000 square feet is the average, Amazon also operates fulfillment centers that range from 600,000 to 1 million square feet. These larger facilities often handle bulky items like furniture or outdoor equipment. Some of the largest facilities can exceed 3 million square feet, like the one in Wilmington, Delaware, which is 3.8 million square feet.

Can you imagine? I cannot. The warehouse pictured above is slightly less than 300,000 square feet. Amazon's average FC runs about 3x that size. And then that Wilmington, Delaware FC? Almost 4 million square feet. 

I think the average Wal-Mart runs about 100,000 square feet. 

Taco Tuesday -- And In A Very Good Way --US Equity Markets Surge -- Inflation Report Tame -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48830B. 

Tariffs on China extended 90 days; meeting with Intel CEO: Trump doing an incredibly better job than the Fed in managing the dual mandate. LOL. 

Trump is not afraid to shift course when the data changes. And he "turns on a dime," as they say. The Fed? Since January, nine months ago, they've been waiting for new data.

NVDA, AMD: willing to pay entire tariff costs. Headline news at first with folks questioning legality; today? Crickets. Waiting for Judge Boasberg. 

US equity markets surge.

Inflation: what inflation? It was all "used cars" and "rent." 

Literally nothing showing up as a result of tariffs. Sara Eisen noted a slight increase in the price of tomatoes in her long interview with White House spokesman.

We finally understand the reason for the inflation due to "used cars" and "rent." Even as new McMansions sort of flat-lined, "rent" has been the real problem. "Shelter" inflation due to "rent" and not "McMansions" is a huge, huge clue of what's going on / what went on. Same with "used cars" vs "new cars."

No matter how The NYT tries to spin it .... link here.

Also, "electricity costs" increasing. Supports my argument.

Oil, gas: doing its part to keep inflation down. Imagine WTI at $80 and $5.00-gasoline under Joe Bide. 

Real reason for surging US equity markets? Taylor Swift announces release of new album; just in time for summer blowout.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.57. Trending toward $60.

New wells:

• Wednesday, August 13, 2025: 26 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 504 for the year,
• 40449, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Eagle 29 1,
• Tuesday, August 12, 2025: 25 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 503 for the year, 
• 41272, conf, CLR, HM Hove 8-9H,

RNB Energy: tech giants may be the surest bets for data center power demand. Archived.

Data centers are a buzzy topic in the energy industry, and while there is still a lot of fuzziness about what will actually get built and how much natural-gas-fired power will be needed to support these projects, there’s no doubt that major technology companies are well along in planning a number of massive data centers across the country. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll offer a snapshot of the plans announced by tech giants Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Meta (Facebook). 

As we’ve discussed in several blogs over the past few months (see Options Open and We Should Be Friends), the race to site, build and open data centers to support artificial intelligence (AI), cloud services and other high-tech needs is fierce. It’s rife with hopes and expectations that are unlikely to be fully realized, and there are a lot of proposed projects that may or may not get built. To help separate the signal from the noise, we thought it would be best to look at what’s being proposed by four large mega-tech companies that have proven they have the financial and organizational wherewithal to make big things happen.

Figure 1. Proposed Data Centers for Technology Giants. Source: RBN

Here is a roundup of major data center projects by the four tech giants noted earlier that have been started or proposed, as shown in Figure 1 above.

Microsoft

Microsoft has added more than 2 gigawatts (GW) of data center capacity in the past 12 months and has more than 400 data centers across 70 regions globally, the company said in its July 30 earnings announcement. The company set aside $80 billion for data centers in fiscal year 2025, with more than $40 billion earmarked for the U.S. Microsoft opened its first data center on its Redmond, WA, campus in 1989 — the year Taylor Swift was born (and the title of one of her most popular albums: 1989.) In April, Microsoft paused some of its data center construction, including a $1 billion project in Ohio, and slowed projects in Wisconsin. Despite these pauses, Microsoft executives said they’re committed to spending on projects this year. 

Updating Techology In The Shale Revolution -- August 12, 2025

Locator: 48829B. 

Chart of the day, link here:

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RBN Energy Update

Full article now available over at RBN Energy. See link below. Again, an incredibly good discussion.

RBN Energy: oil and gas companies experiment with twisty new well designs to boost output. Archived.

The oil and gas industry is always working to develop the most efficient methods for unlocking more hydrocarbons. To cut costs and maximize output from their acreage, some companies are rolling out more creative well designs, such as U-turn (aka “horseshoe”) and J-hook wells, which use dramatic, 180-degree underground turns to access more oil and gas from each location. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the benefits of these approaches and the technical hurdles associated with drilling these deep bends underground. 

In Part 1 of this blog series, we discussed how the Shale Era was made possible by unprecedented advancements in drilling and completion technology, especially in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The combination of the two, along with other basin-specific techniques, has significantly increased the efficiency of oil and gas recovery, as evidenced by, among many things, higher initial production (IP) rates, lower decline rates and higher EURs (estimated ultimate recovery numbers). We also detailed how the industry has increasingly utilized much longer laterals and how the choice of well tubing — coiled or stick pipe — plays an important role.

At the beginning of the drilling process, a crucial decision must be made regarding how the well will be designed. Typically, in horizontal drilling, it starts by drilling a vertical section from the surface down to the targeted rock formation. Then, the directional drilling will steer the wellbore into a horizontal path, which can extend for one, two or three miles, and even longer in some cases. This can increase the amount of hydrocarbons that can flow into the well and boost production rates. Once the well is at the desired depth, the wellbore is lined with steel casing and cemented in place to prevent collapse. Then, the well is hydraulically fractured, and finally, pumps are installed to bring oil or gas to the surface.

While the horizontal well is the go-to design in most popular shales in the U.S., a few E&Ps have started pushing boundaries in the last few years with new twists on the horizontal well design. The first we’ll discuss is the U-turn or horseshoe well. This is a more complex technique often used where space is tight, or the geology is challenging (more on that below). It starts with the drill path going down vertically from the surface, just like a typical horizontal well. Once it reaches the target depth, it turns and drills horizontally, usually about a mile out. Here’s where the twist comes in. Rather than stopping or branching straight out, the drill bit makes a tight 180-degree or U-turn underground and heads back in the opposite direction. This creates a second horizontal leg parallel to the first, as shown in the graphic to the right in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Comstock Haynesville Horseshoe Test. Source: Comstock